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(Gizmodo)   Yes, of course the new movie will be a hit. The algorithm says so   (gizmodo.com) divider line 18
    More: Strange, algorithms  
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4376 clicks; posted to Geek » on 20 Jan 2013 at 8:03 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-01-20 08:04:51 AM
Can an Algorithm Really Predict If a Movie Will Be a Hit?

Yes.

Can this algorithm really predict if a movie will be a hit?

Probably no.
 
2013-01-20 08:11:25 AM
In my day we made a hit movie by making a good movie...
 
2013-01-20 08:21:56 AM
Epagogix has been doing this for awhile Epagogix is a UK-based company founded in 2003 that uses neural networks and analytical software to predict which movies will provide a good possibility of return on investments and which movie scripts or plots will be successful.

First heard about it in Ian Ayres book : "Super Crunchers, Why Thinking in Numbers is the New Way to be Smart"

And yes, kinda sad, but it does appear to work
 
2013-01-20 08:45:05 AM
I expected something like this...
Trailer For Every Oscar-Winning Movie Ever
 
2013-01-20 09:37:50 AM
Here's my algorithm:

The likelihood of a movie being a hit is inversely proportional to how much artsy-fartsy movie critics hate it.
 
2013-01-20 09:59:22 AM
Jim_Callahan:
Can this algorithm really predict if a movie will be a hit?

24.media.tumblr.com

Algorithm says "no".
 
2013-01-20 10:56:43 AM
This cut has been cross-format focused to succeed on radio.

And it will.

Sooner or later.

/obscure?
 
2013-01-20 03:35:05 PM
If the algorithm is using word of mouth as the article suggests then I am not impressed. If one has data on word of mouth then the movie is already out thus in addition to knowledge of marketing and other forms of advanced publicity, one knows how well it has been reviewed, one knows what its early box office is, and one know whether people who have seen it are recommending it to their friends. With all of that, it would be pretty hard not to get the answer right the vast majority of the time.

Call me when the algorithm can predict if the movie is a hit prior to its release.

I suppose pre-release marketing, publicity, etc. can give a minimum predicted box office on the assumption that the movie is horrid. Thus one could have predicted that Star Wars Episode 1 would make x hundred million no matter what which would make it a hit. But until the movie is released, one can't really can't make intelligent guesses of how well it would do above that minimum. For Ep. 1 it would be the difference between a hit and a megahit. For most movies, it could be the difference between a bomb and a hit.
 
2013-01-20 04:37:17 PM
FarkerUK's algorithm for movie success:-

1. Hire really good writers to write a very good script
2. Hire the right cast for the job. Not necessarily stars, but the right cast.
3. Hire a good director
4. Put it in the can.

The reason why The Dark Knight Rises, Skyfall and The Avengers were monster hits is because they delivered and word-of-mouth kicked in. Hollywood isn't good at making really high quality movies. They make a lot of stuff that gets pushed out that is just OK, and when people go to see it, they don't tell their friends which is why opening weekends don't tell you much. Skyfall and the Avengers ran in UK cinemas for quite a time.
 
2013-01-20 04:51:44 PM

farkeruk: 4. Put it in the can.


i15.photobucket.com
 
2013-01-20 05:51:00 PM

Gunny Walker: I expected something like this...
Trailer For Every Oscar-Winning Movie Ever


This should still beat that one at the box office
 
2013-01-21 03:19:10 AM
My algorithm:

A studio's confidence in the quality of a movie is directly proportional to the month in which it is released. January release? Dud. December release? Angling for an Oscar. Popular culture tends to go to the medium, June or July.

/not rocket science
 
2013-01-21 07:28:34 AM

drake113: My algorithm:

A studio's confidence in the quality of a movie is directly proportional to the month in which it is released. January release? Dud. December release? Angling for an Oscar. Popular culture tends to go to the medium, June or July.

/not rocket science


So for you, movie studios are infallible?
 
2013-01-21 11:03:36 AM
Watch here as the movie business goes the way of the music business.

You can only predict what people may like for a verrrrrry short period of time until you get wayyyyy off base.

It's art and entertainment you stupid farkers. The tastes and creativity of the people change constantly. And the youngins? You almost never know what's going to stick with them...

So, eventually, you end up with an industry full of wankers who make decisions based on what has been working until you have an endless stream of crap drivel mediocrity. Ya know, like 96% of pop music. Here today, gone tomorrow, minor one-hits and California money holes.

And the biggest long lasting hits always fall outside the current norms. Always... until the norm is aping them.
 
2013-01-21 11:29:53 AM
Can Nate Silver use algorithms to predict the winner of an election?
 
2013-01-21 03:27:24 PM
I'll say as a dude who watched way, way to much Star Trek and Star Wars related media over a barely three decade life that there is no math possible to predict if a film will be good, let alone watchable. Star Trek: Nemesis pretty much proved this. And that was an even one.
 
2013-01-21 05:52:11 PM
Can an Algorithm Really Predict If a Movie Will Be a Hit?

No, I can't
 
2013-01-22 08:01:59 AM
But.will.it.get.them.off.their.tractors?

images3.wikia.nocookie.net
 
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