TheGreatGazoo: History of CornAlso, bananas were supposed to be extinct by 2013.
SVenus: Damnhippyfreak: So we know you are very much aware that a short term period (relative to variability) can be misleading. You contend that this is similar to what James Hansen used (supposedly only 8 years) in past congressional testimony. This is not the case, as his testimony and the papers it was based on used a longer period of time than that and did not solely rely on some sort of simple linear regression or simple correlation.Perhaps you can interpret this for us then:Fromhttp://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/bams-sotc/2008/chapter2.pdfDo global temperature trends over the last decade falsify climate predictions?Near-zeroand even negative trends are common for intervals of a decade orless in the simulations, due to themodel's internal climate variability.The simulations rule out (at the95% level) zero trends for intervalsof 15 yr or more, suggesting thatan observed absence of warming ofthis duration is needed to createa discrepancy with the expectedpresent-day warming rate.The latest Met Office model newly proposed as seen in the screen grab above predicts a slight warming over the next three or four years. This would put the warming trend at within or nearly within a zero trend line bracket for considerably more than 15 years.I interpret the above statement, still available on the NOAA website, as saying that, from a statistical standpoint, modeling has trouble with a zero trend that's longer than 15 years, essentially ruling it out. I don't think it's just James Hansen's testimony in 1988 alone that addresses this issue. If it's been shown the deep Pacific can store up heat over 30 years and then disgorge that as a super El Nino with a new baseline trend, great. Love the theory. Can't wait for the science part of that (i.e., hard data).Again, not a modeling or numbers guy -- so if someone says "hey, it's 25 years, we can model 25 years and still have very little change in the temps and still make the existing GCM work" I can't argu ...
Lee Jackson Beauregard: TheGreatGazoo: History of CornAlso, bananas were supposed to be extinct by 2013.You do know that we've already all but lost a major variety of banana, right?
dillengest: The statement you quote does not take into account any formal statistical significance test
Links are submitted by members of the Fark community.
When community members submit a link, they also write a custom headline for the story.
Other Farkers comment on the links. This is the number of comments. Click here to read them.
You need to create an account to submit links or post comments.
Click here to submit a link.
Also on Fark
Submit a Link »
Copyright © 1999 - 2017 Fark, Inc | Last updated: May 29 2017 22:36:25
Runtime: 0.142 sec (142 ms)