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(The New York Times)   Nate Silver says politics is frustrating to analyze. "If you were touting how awesome Notre Dame was, for example, you got very much slapped back into reality last night. In politics, you can go on being delusional for years at a time"   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 61
    More: Obvious, cherry picking, thank you  
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1828 clicks; posted to Politics » on 10 Jan 2013 at 5:22 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-01-10 03:14:32 PM
"My quick-and-dirty view is that people are too quick to affiliate themselves with identity groups of all kinds, as opposed to carving out their own path in life....we should empower people to make their own choices and live their own lives, and that we should be somewhat distrustful about the whims and tastes and legal constraints imposed by society. "
 Nate I would go gay for you
 
2013-01-10 03:18:53 PM
Oh I'm a huge Notre Dame Losing fan. :-)
 
2013-01-10 05:04:29 PM
So true.

RIGHT, LIBS?!?!?

HAHAHAHA, CHRISTIE/SOME HISPANIC REPUBLICAN 2016!!! SUCK IT!!!!
 
2013-01-10 05:19:29 PM
Well I, for one, still think Notre Dame is the best foosball college in the world.
 
2013-01-10 05:26:16 PM
Football fans are at least as neurotic and delusional as politics fans, perhaps more so.
 
2013-01-10 05:26:46 PM
Elections have no consequences
 
2013-01-10 05:27:53 PM

Shostie: So true.

RIGHT, LIBS?!?!?

HAHAHAHA, CHRISTIE/SOME HISPANIC REPUBLICAN 2016!!! SUCK IT!!!!


Assuming that he doesn't die in an all you can eat pudding contest before then you may be right
 
2013-01-10 05:27:57 PM
I did not know Nate silver was gay until that article. I thought the Unskewed guy's 'effeminate' insult thing was just him being a wacko. Now i realize it was actual gay-bashing.
huh. well, there ya go.
 
2013-01-10 05:34:19 PM

OceanVortex: I did not know Nate silver was gay until that article. I thought the Unskewed guy's 'effeminate' insult thing was just him being a wacko. Now i realize it was actual gay-bashing.
huh. well, there ya go.


huh.. likewise
 
2013-01-10 05:34:36 PM

gadian: Football fans are at least as neurotic and delusional as politics fans, perhaps more so.


And then you have Chicago Cubs fans.

/Runs
 
2013-01-10 05:37:47 PM
Goddammit, I love this man.  If anyone hasn't read Signal and the Noise, you should.

Especially the section about pundits.

A problem I've seen is that pollsters need to catch up with the freaking times sooner or later.  You can have a decent sample size with an ostensibly relatively low margin of error for a certain population, sure.  But if your method is "calling people on landlines that are willing to take your stupid poll", well... and even then small changes in script can lead to huge changes in poll results.  Surprisingly so, actually..."clean energy" vs "green energy" vs "renewable energy" can get different responses for the exact same goddamn legislation for example.

I'm not familiar with the various methodologies of the polling firms (when they even disclose them) but if someone had enough funding to do a decent long term study... pick out a certain number of voters by actually physically going out into the field and asking people if they would be interested in being involved (dangle a carrot to get cell phone and email info) (pulling out of a phone book ain't gonna work, just wait until immediately after a presidential election or census and give people who've been coordinating door knocking anyway a job for a little while longer), whittle that down to a manageable number but still statistically significantly representative...

...then pay those people a small amount to agree to answer short poll questions on a regular clip.  Have bonuses after certain periods of time - say, every 4 years - to encourage them to keep their contact information updated.

Hell, if you got startup funding you could sell bonus questions to marketing firms.
 
2013-01-10 05:46:38 PM

gadian: Football fans are at least as neurotic and delusional as politics fans, perhaps more so.


Lance Armstrong fans are worse.
 
2013-01-10 05:48:55 PM
If you were touting how awesome Notre Dame was, for example*, you got very much slapped back into reality last night.

Nate hasn't visited many CFB forums, has he?
 
2013-01-10 05:50:48 PM

The Bestest: OceanVortex: I did not know Nate silver was gay until that article. I thought the Unskewed guy's 'effeminate' insult thing was just him being a wacko. Now i realize it was actual gay-bashing.
huh. well, there ya go.

huh.. likewise


As you might guess from the answer (above), he doesn't feel the need to make a song and dance about it, but it's not exactly a secret either.

But it does make one comment in The Signal and the Noise exceptionally odd, where he refers to the risks of 19-year old baseball prospects and "the distractions of booze and the opposite sex". Because obviously, it's a statistical fact there are no gay baseball prospects, right, Nate?
 
2013-01-10 05:51:38 PM
Having a hard time telling difference between Romney supporters and Notre Dame fans. "What do you mean we lost? Its been all over the news for months, we're the greatest since sliced bread"
 
2013-01-10 06:09:50 PM

LarryDan43: Lance Armstrong fans are worse.


Really - how so?

/cyclist
 
2013-01-10 06:09:57 PM
you need to be delusional in order to be a right-winger. Some of my right-wing fb friends are still convinced rmoney won the popular vote.
 
2013-01-10 06:10:55 PM

gadian: Football fans are at least as neurotic and delusional as politics fans, perhaps more so.


Probably, but the difference is that cheering for the wrong team doesn't have national economic and social consequences. If more people start cheering for the Patriots instead of the Broncos, that won't result in us invading Iran. Similar pathology, but with vastly different consequences.
 
2013-01-10 06:11:50 PM

Spanky_McFarksalot: you need to be delusional in order to be a right-winger. Some of my right-wing fb friends are still convinced rmoney won the popular vote.


How do they feel about Citizen's United?
 
2013-01-10 06:12:44 PM

born_yesterday: Spanky_McFarksalot: you need to be delusional in order to be a right-winger. Some of my right-wing fb friends are still convinced rmoney won the popular vote.

How do they feel about Citizen's United?


Edit: I thought you wrote "money" missed the "r". Question kinda pointless now.
 
2013-01-10 06:20:32 PM

eagles95: Shostie: So true.

RIGHT, LIBS?!?!?

HAHAHAHA, CHRISTIE/SOME HISPANIC REPUBLICAN 2016!!! SUCK IT!!!!

Assuming that he doesn't die in an all you can eat pudding contest before then you may be right


He's in the GOP. If he doesn't get McCain'ed circa 2000 he'll sell out McCain-style circa 2008.
 
2013-01-10 06:22:16 PM

gingerjet: LarryDan43: Lance Armstrong fans are worse.

Really - how so?

/cyclist


The last of the holdouts will have to "evolve" their position/excuses (for the nth time) after Armstrong finally comes out to Oprah.
 
2013-01-10 06:22:58 PM

Spanky_McFarksalot: you need to be delusional in order to be a right-winger. Some of my right-wing fb friends are still convinced rmoney won the popular vote.


I had so many discussions on election night about how horrible it was Obama was declared winner and he wasnt even winning the popular vote. Now if I even dare mention the popular vote there are those who still havent updated from that night. They just turned off all the news and carried on with the talking points they were already using.
 
2013-01-10 06:29:09 PM

LarryDan43: gadian: Football fans are at least as neurotic and delusional as politics fans, perhaps more so.

Lance Armstrong fans are worse.


No Tebow fans top them. You have never seen so many people convined a backup QB is better than he is. I mean their cult is friggin lead by the Dick Morris of Sports (Skip Bayless).
 
2013-01-10 06:36:46 PM

LarryDan43: Lance Armstrong fans are worse.


Yeah, They are one nutty bunch.
 
2013-01-10 06:37:41 PM

skykid: LarryDan43: gadian: Football fans are at least as neurotic and delusional as politics fans, perhaps more so.

Lance Armstrong fans are worse.

No Tebow fans top them. You have never seen so many people convined a backup QB is better than he is. I mean their cult is friggin lead by the Dick Morris of Sports (Skip Bayless).


I can't tell if this is more insulting to Dick Morris, or to Skip Bayless
 
2013-01-10 06:41:50 PM

skykid: LarryDan43: gadian: Football fans are at least as neurotic and delusional as politics fans, perhaps more so.

Lance Armstrong fans are worse.

No Tebow fans top them. You have never seen so many people convined a backup QB is better than he is. I mean their cult is friggin lead by the Dick Morris of Sports (Skip Bayless).


Yeah; at least Lance Armstrong really is legitimately among the best long-distance cyclists in history.

Sure, Lance Armstrong is a criminal who not only took performance enhancing drugs, but actually set up a fairly large and sophisticated criminal organization help facilitate his teammate's use of performance enhancing drugs. And, he set out to maliciously destroy the lives and reputations of anyone who threatened to expose him.

But Lance Armstrong was still one of the best long-distance cyclists in history, despite all that.
 
2013-01-10 06:42:07 PM

skykid: LarryDan43: gadian: Football fans are at least as neurotic and delusional as politics fans, perhaps more so.

Lance Armstrong fans are worse.

No Tebow fans top them. You have never seen so many people convined a backup QB is better than he is. I mean their cult is friggin lead by the Dick Morris of Sports (Skip Bayless).


Texas highschool football.

Some schools build stadiums that cost more than their school building.

/hides
 
2013-01-10 06:45:33 PM

skykid: LarryDan43: gadian: Football fans are at least as neurotic and delusional as politics fans, perhaps more so.

Lance Armstrong fans are worse.

No Tebow fans top them. You have never seen so many people convined a backup QB is better than he is. I mean their cult is friggin lead by the Dick Morris of Sports (Skip Bayless).


I know a Florida Gators fan. Her Tebow love would make Skip Worthless say "calm down"
 
2013-01-10 07:05:38 PM

czetie: As you might guess from the answer (above), he doesn't feel the need to make a song and dance about it, but it's not exactly a secret either.But it does make one comment in The Signal and the Noise exceptionally odd, where he refers to the risks of 19-year old baseball prospects and "the distractions of booze and the opposite sex". Because obviously, it's a statistical fact there are no gay baseball prospects, right, Nate?


Well, he could have just left out the "opposite" to cover all the bases, but the statistically far more 19yo baseball prospects will be distracted by the opposite sex than the same sex (when talking about having or trying to have sex with other people anyway). Your nitpicking would be the same as complaining about him mentioning booze, when a smaller fraction will fall by the wayside due to dope or heroin or meth.
 
2013-01-10 07:09:13 PM

czetie: The Bestest: OceanVortex: I did not know Nate silver was gay until that article. I thought the Unskewed guy's 'effeminate' insult thing was just him being a wacko. Now i realize it was actual gay-bashing.
huh. well, there ya go.

huh.. likewise

As you might guess from the answer (above), he doesn't feel the need to make a song and dance about it, but it's not exactly a secret either.

But it does make one comment in The Signal and the Noise exceptionally odd, where he refers to the risks of 19-year old baseball prospects and "the distractions of booze and the opposite sex". Because obviously, it's a statistical fact there are no gay baseball prospects, right, Nate?


The opposite sex IS statistically more likely to be distracting. Just because Nate's in the minority I'm sure doesn't blind him to that.
 
2013-01-10 07:16:42 PM

DORMAMU: skykid: LarryDan43: gadian: Football fans are at least as neurotic and delusional as politics fans, perhaps more so.

Lance Armstrong fans are worse.

No Tebow fans top them. You have never seen so many people convined a backup QB is better than he is. I mean their cult is friggin lead by the Dick Morris of Sports (Skip Bayless).

Texas highschool football.

Some schools build stadiums that cost more than their school building.

/hides


we are mad for football down here, but I don't think that actually happens all that much and if it does, its more a case of the stadium being built recently while the school was built in the 60s/70s than anything else

/could be wrong but don't think so
 
2013-01-10 07:24:16 PM

xria: czetie: As you might guess from the answer (above), he doesn't feel the need to make a song and dance about it, but it's not exactly a secret either.But it does make one comment in The Signal and the Noise exceptionally odd, where he refers to the risks of 19-year old baseball prospects and "the distractions of booze and the opposite sex". Because obviously, it's a statistical fact there are no gay baseball prospects, right, Nate?

Well, he could have just left out the "opposite" to cover all the bases, but the statistically far more 19yo baseball prospects will be distracted by the opposite sex than the same sex (when talking about having or trying to have sex with other people anyway). Your nitpicking would be the same as complaining about him mentioning booze, when a smaller fraction will fall by the wayside due to dope or heroin or meth.


Oh, I don't deny that it's nitpicking. It just seems a notably odd slip from somebody who himself is gay, given the fact that there are no publicly out professional baseball players* and statistically speaking there are almost certainly a few, perhaps a few dozen. There's an undoubted stigma for gay male professional athletes -- the first male baseball player to come out while still playing is going to be very brave indeed -- and I'm surprised that Nate slipped into perpetuating it even in this very small and casual way.

I understand where you're going with the booze comparison, but it's not exactly the same. Booze and weed would both be illegal for a 19 year old, and these days I suspect that weed would actually be easier to obtain (the people selling it typically don't check IDs) and less stigmatized if he were discovered. But more importantly, Nate himself doesn't have any known preference for booze or weed.

/*Actively playing, I mean. A few have come out after retiring.
 
2013-01-10 07:31:31 PM

Skirl Hutsenreiter: czetie: The Bestest: OceanVortex: I did not know Nate silver was gay until that article. I thought the Unskewed guy's 'effeminate' insult thing was just him being a wacko. Now i realize it was actual gay-bashing.
huh. well, there ya go.

huh.. likewise

As you might guess from the answer (above), he doesn't feel the need to make a song and dance about it, but it's not exactly a secret either.

But it does make one comment in The Signal and the Noise exceptionally odd, where he refers to the risks of 19-year old baseball prospects and "the distractions of booze and the opposite sex". Because obviously, it's a statistical fact there are no gay baseball prospects, right, Nate?

The opposite sex IS statistically more likely to be distracting. Just because Nate's in the minority I'm sure doesn't blind him to that.


Yes, but he could just as easily have said "booze and sex". And realistically, it's also probable that a 19 year old baseball prospect trying to reconcile being gay with the culture of professional sports has rather more significant distractions to deal with.

Also, I'm sure Nate is smart enough to know that you don't talk about "statistics" when you're talking about an individual. Statistically, a baseball team is likely to be more distracted by a female streaker than a male one; but the hitter currently at the plate either is or isn't.

Anyway, I'm not pretending that this isn't a big fuss about a very little thing, as my wife constantly reminds me.
 
2013-01-10 07:32:11 PM
I live in the Seattle metro, where our current motto is "Problem, NFC?", so I'm getting a kick out of this thread.
 
2013-01-10 07:34:40 PM

The Bestest: OceanVortex: I did not know Nate silver was gay until that article. I thought the Unskewed guy's 'effeminate' insult thing was just him being a wacko. Now i realize it was actual gay-bashing.
huh. well, there ya go.

huh.. likewise


Me, also. And so what if he is?
 
2013-01-10 07:36:02 PM
in politics there are only two teams, the fanbases always have excuses for their team losing
 
2013-01-10 07:39:56 PM

Speaker2Animals: The Bestest: OceanVortex: I did not know Nate silver was gay until that article. I thought the Unskewed guy's 'effeminate' insult thing was just him being a wacko. Now i realize it was actual gay-bashing.
huh. well, there ya go.

huh.. likewise

Me, also. And so what if he is?


Non-issue.  Math doesn't give a shiat.
 
2013-01-10 07:59:25 PM
 
2013-01-10 09:43:44 PM

desertgeek: skykid: LarryDan43: gadian: Football fans are at least as neurotic and delusional as politics fans, perhaps more so.

Lance Armstrong fans are worse.

No Tebow fans top them. You have never seen so many people convined a backup QB is better than he is. I mean their cult is friggin lead by the Dick Morris of Sports (Skip Bayless).

I know a Florida Gators fan. Her Tebow love would make Skip Worthless say "calm down"


At least he was a great college quarterback. Of course a great college quarterback != a great NFL quarterback. That's the distinction a lot of people have a hard time making.
 
2013-01-10 10:16:57 PM

Spanky_McFarksalot: you need to be delusional in order to be a right-winger.


Neither necessary nor sufficient, but it apparently helps a lot.
 
2013-01-10 10:32:42 PM

abb3w: Spanky_McFarksalot: you need to be delusional in order to be a right-winger.

Neither necessary nor sufficient, but it apparently helps a lot.


Well it IS necessary in that it is a core part of the definition of "right winger."
 
2013-01-10 10:48:11 PM
When one "fanbase" includes the most popular cable news channel, all talk radio, and the derpiest known websites, then it becomes difficult for them to come to their senses.
 
2013-01-10 11:06:16 PM

Lou Brown: At least he was a great college quarterback. Of course a great college quarterback != a great NFL quarterback. That's the distinction a lot of people have a hard time making.


This

You've got 120 FBS schools replacing quarterbacks approx every two years, you have 32 NFL teams and when a team finds a good one (and I'm using a loose definition of good including the likes of Phillip Rivers and Tony Romo and Joe Flacco), he's not getting replaced for probably eight to ten years.
 
2013-01-10 11:07:12 PM

bk3k: Well it IS necessary in that it is a core part of the definition of "right winger."


Nah. You're forgetting the amoral sociopaths who aren't delusional -- or at least, well below the overall baseline degree to which humans tend to be delusional.
 
2013-01-11 01:11:37 AM

Soup4Bonnie: LarryDan43: Lance Armstrong fans are worse.

Yeah, They are one nutty bunch.

 
2013-01-11 01:13:41 AM

austerity101: Soup4Bonnie: LarryDan43: Lance Armstrong fans are worse.

Yeah, They are one nutty bunch.


Oh for f*ck's sake. Fark deleted my pic:

i.imgur.com
/oh, how I laughed
 
2013-01-11 01:49:35 AM

gadian: Football fans are at least as neurotic and delusional as politics fans, perhaps more so.


I don't think so. As a *twitch* Jets fan, I have come to terms with the fact that the team absolutely sucked this year, and that we need to dismantle the team, dump some salary, and rebuild. I'm not going to insist that they continue to start Sanchez next year, or pretend that having him throw 2-3 picks in a game is somehow a solid game plan, and that if only the referees saw the wisdom of our plans and gave us points for picks and fumbles that we would go to the Super Bowl.
 
2013-01-11 02:02:42 AM

Rann Xerox: gadian: Football fans are at least as neurotic and delusional as politics fans, perhaps more so.

And then you have Chicago Cubs fans.

/Runs


Lord knows if you're hoping to score runs the Cubs are who you want to be playing.
 
2013-01-11 02:50:44 AM

abb3w: bk3k: Well it IS necessary in that it is a core part of the definition of "right winger."

Nah. You're forgetting the amoral sociopaths who aren't delusional -- or at least, well below the overall baseline degree to which humans tend to be delusional.


I understand your point, but I would differentiate between actual right wingers and puppet masters. Especially since only the former group truly believes what they spread around.
 
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