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(Yahoo)   Jim Cramer is pitching gold. SELL SELL SELL   (finance.yahoo.com) divider line 20
    More: Obvious, Mad Money  
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1110 clicks; posted to Business » on 09 Jan 2013 at 1:22 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-01-09 12:29:48 PM
Huh.  Always seemed like more of a "catcher" to me, all high-pitched & dramatic.

My only question is: does this mean he's seen as more credible than Glen Beck, or less?
 
2013-01-09 01:30:13 PM
Don't bubble up on this one. I just wanna know what the next bubble is going to be so I can get in early. I bet Beanies are gonna make a come back.
 
2013-01-09 01:41:13 PM
He's been in favor of owning gold for as long as I've been aware of his existence. As long as you have somewhere to store it cheap/free and assuming your portfolio is large enough that getting a few ounces is 5-10%, then it's not a crazy idea.
 
2013-01-09 01:48:06 PM

GoodyearPimp: As long as you have somewhere to store it cheap/free


It doesn't take up a lot of space. I fit mine between my canned food stockpile and my ammo stockpile.
 
2013-01-09 01:52:44 PM
came for sound financial advice
leaving destitute, depressed and looking for a nice, tall bridge.
 
2013-01-09 01:53:49 PM
You can hardly ever go wrong with doing the exact opposite of whatever the fark Cramer is pushing. If he says sell you buy, if he says buy you sell.

For example last time I watched Cramer he was pushing Netflix stock, just before they went full retard and the dam thing took a giant dump in the market.
 
2013-01-09 01:55:37 PM

wildcardjack: Don't bubble up on this one. I just wanna know what the next bubble is going to be so I can get in early. I bet Beanies are gonna make a come back.


Mult-family construction
college

two bubbles right now...college has been a growing bubble for a while.
 
2013-01-09 02:08:34 PM
Hold on --

"First Cramer feels that the process of getting gold out of the ground is growing more expensive - and those costs, he says, will be passed along."

Doesn't it basically work the other way, where the current market price for gold or *any* metal determines whether a mine can be operated profitably or not, other factors (ore concentration, operating expenses) being known quantities?
 
2013-01-09 02:12:16 PM
God damnit could people PLEASE stop driving the gold prices up? It's making it REALLY expensive to do nanoscale research. =(

/We like gold. Gold nanoparticles have really, really nice optical properties.
//Silver does, too, but that oxidizes pretty fast.
 
2013-01-09 02:24:08 PM

Hagbardr: GoodyearPimp: As long as you have somewhere to store it cheap/free

It doesn't take up a lot of space. I fit mine between my canned food stockpile and my ammo stockpile.


Gold coins can be beaten into thin sheets to line the roof and walls of the shelter.
 
2013-01-09 02:28:24 PM
Translation: we need someone to dump all our gold on before it really shiats itself.
 
2013-01-09 02:46:42 PM

phaseolus: Hold on --

"First Cramer feels that the process of getting gold out of the ground is growing more expensive - and those costs, he says, will be passed along."

Doesn't it basically work the other way, where the current market price for gold or *any* metal determines whether a mine can be operated profitably or not, other factors (ore concentration, operating expenses) being known quantities?


Yes. The fact that he can't even grasp that concept should tell you why he's an awful 'economist'.

/Wonder how many shares he owns in Glenn Beck's Cash4Gold company?
 
2013-01-09 03:12:20 PM
There is very little evidence to suggest any of the investment guru's, investment books, investment strategies consistently outperform random selection.

And I'm not even talking about the 'average' fund manager. We're talking about the good ones.

But nobody wants to hear it. They want someone who has all the answers to wear a nice suit, in a nice office, and tell them, 'Hey, trust me, *I* got this'. They want the book whose author says, 'LISTEN I'm RIGHT and here is why!'. They want a celeb who says, 'SELL SELL SELL!'

It's nothing new, of course. You could find very successful astrologists who make money hand over fist, who have written books, who have legions of loyal customers who swear they are right. But whatever success they have, it's *not* because of their ability to predict the future.

Same with these stock guys.

Take 100 guys and have them randomly pick stocks. On average, they will perform as well as the market as a whole. But, one of those guys is going to be the top performer. And with an education and background, he can explain in depth why his picks were the right ones and why he made each one...and it'd sound great.

And that's pretending it's a level playing field.
 
2013-01-09 03:45:10 PM
March 11, 2008 - "Bear Stearns is fine" - Jim Cramer
March 14, 2008 - Bear Stearns is bailed out by the Fed and acquired by JP Morgan for $2 per share.
 
2013-01-09 04:15:13 PM
two bubbles right now...college has been a growing bubble for a while.

Mult-family construction
college


Add healthcare to that list. Sure the demand will only go up, but that demand will be from poor old people who didn't save for retirement. Once medicare fails then all the money is going to dry and the entire industry will fall apart.
 
2013-01-09 04:15:40 PM
If you've got gold to unload do it in Tampa. They pay more than anyone else. I was there, I saw the signs.
 
2013-01-09 04:41:22 PM

Fark_Guy_Rob: There is very little evidence to suggest any of the investment guru's, investment books, investment strategies consistently outperform random selection.

And I'm not even talking about the 'average' fund manager. We're talking about the good ones.

But nobody wants to hear it. They want someone who has all the answers to wear a nice suit, in a nice office, and tell them, 'Hey, trust me, *I* got this'. They want the book whose author says, 'LISTEN I'm RIGHT and here is why!'. They want a celeb who says, 'SELL SELL SELL!'

It's nothing new, of course. You could find very successful astrologists who make money hand over fist, who have written books, who have legions of loyal customers who swear they are right. But whatever success they have, it's *not* because of their ability to predict the future.

Same with these stock guys.

Take 100 guys and have them randomly pick stocks. On average, they will perform as well as the market as a whole. But, one of those guys is going to be the top performer. And with an education and background, he can explain in depth why his picks were the right ones and why he made each one...and it'd sound great.

And that's pretending it's a level playing field.


Since this is a thread about gold, it may be worth mentioning John Doody (yes, very unfortunate name) who puts out a newsletter of recommended gold stocks. I've been following Doody's newsletter for a while and his track record is pretty damn good. He has a systematic method of investing that has gotten results that are so far above the market, it'd be a real stretch to attribute it to luck. His results are audited, and at the end of 2011, he released his historical results which were pretty remarkable.

Since he specializes in gold stocks, the proper market to compare his results to would be the XAU, which is a basket of gold mining stocks that is used to track the sector. If you measure consistency by the number of years he beat the market, it'd be 6 of the last 10 years, which based on that metric alone is pretty good, but it isn't outstanding. But his total return is leaps and bounds above the market. His audited results:
www.goldstockanalyst.com

His investment style isn't for everyone as the volatility is extremely high. The people who follow his methods sometimes need to overlook the bad patches and continue to forge ahead. There were months where I got really pissed at the losses and thought about stopping, but I'm glad I didn't. His level of analysis and the lengths that he goes to in researching the companies he profiles is really mind-boggling. I'm not a shill, just a subscriber that has been extremely pleased with the results.

I would imagine that there are some other investment managers or advisers that have similar results. I think the longer the time horizon, the easier it is to separate the good managers from the bad.
 
2013-01-09 04:50:53 PM

Atomic Spunk: His investment style isn't for everyone as the volatility is extremely high. The people who follow his methods sometimes need to overlook the bad patches and continue to forge ahead. There were months where I got really pissed at the losses and thought about stopping, but I'm glad I didn't. His level of analysis and the lengths that he goes to in researching the companies he profiles is really mind-boggling. I'm not a shill, just a subscriber that has been extremely pleased with the results.


Aren't most people who go for extremely risky in a bull market going to get exceptional returns? I'd think you'd see a similar effect if did a bunch of options trading on the stocks comprising the XAU index. The real question is whether he's able to weather a downturn or whether he multiplies his losses, too.

It makes sense that some guys are going to routinely beat the market, because not every investor is aggressively pursuing new information all the time so someone who's looking for the right things should be able to gain some edge, but it's awfully, awfully hard even in hindsight to separate good decision making from luck.
 
2013-01-09 05:51:16 PM

you have pee hands:
Aren't most people who go for extremely risky in a bull market going to get exceptional returns? I'd think you'd see a similar effect if did a bunch of options trading on the stocks comprising the XAU index. The real question is whether he's able to weather a downturn or whether he multiplies his losses, too.

It makes sense that some guys are going to routinely beat the market, because not every investor is aggressively pursuing new information all the time so someone who's looking for the right things should be able to gain some edge, but it's awfully, awfully hard even in hindsight to separate good decision making from luck.


That's a valid point. In 2 of the 3 years listed where the XAU had a loss, Doody's loss was significantly more than the XAU loss. 2012 results haven't been released yet, but both GSA and XAU had losses. If I'm not mistaken, the GSA loss will be less than the XAU loss, similar to what happened in 2011. Last I checked, XAU was down about 17% and GSA was down 6% - this was end of Q3 2012. So whether or not one can say conclusively that his losses are magnified during a bear market remains to be seen.
 
2013-01-09 09:44:47 PM
I love goldbugs.
 
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