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(Bubblews)   Oh, and btw, the Earth might get struck by Asteroid Apophis today. Just saying   (bubblews.com ) divider line 198
    More: Scary, Asteroid Apophis, Apophis, Earth  
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17354 clicks; posted to Main » on 09 Jan 2013 at 10:44 AM (3 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-01-09 11:04:35 AM  

Carn: KarmicDisaster: HMS_Blinkin: KarmicDisaster: HMS_Blinkin: If it does it does. Nothing we can do about it.

There is if we act now, there isn't if we wait until we are "sure" in 2029. They will have a better orbit this year after more observations. Then we will may to decide what to do. Maybe it will depend on who it will hit.

Where are you getting 2029 from? I thought this thing was near us today.

/farking from my phone so I might have missed something

It is the next pass that is the problem, not this one.

Yeah but even if we calculate that it's going to hit us, we have 20 years to train Bruce Willis and his team instead of just a few months so we're gonna be fine. I don't know if he'll volunteer to blow himself up again.


The real danger is going to be probabilities. People don't understand how they work. They will come out with a probability that it will hit when people want a yes no. This is big enough to possibly kill everyone, even the preppers in their bunkers. What kind of probability is acceptable? It we wait until they are 99% sure, it will be too late to deflect it. If we start early when they are 1/1000 sure, we can still do it, and the earlier we start the cheaper the mission.  Certain elements of society aren't going to want to spend money at the 1/1000 level.  Plus we don't really know enough about how to deflect these things, there are a lot of untested ideas like coating them with paint to cause a very small push by sunlight, but those things have to be applied early.
 
2013-01-09 11:04:43 AM  
Earth always gets picked last at cosmic dodgeball. She just stands there and giggles sardonically
 
2013-01-09 11:05:30 AM  

Carn: Uh, yeah, no there isn't.

the risk from Apophis is already essentially zero.

"What does essentially zero mean exactly? Let's review some history. When Apophis was discovered in 2004, astronomers calculated that there was a very small probability (up to 2.7%) that it would strike the Earth in 2029. That was clearly unsettling, but the concern was short-lived. The 2029 impact possibility was quickly ruled out, but, almost as quickly, another possibility reared its head: a possible impact in 2036. For a time, astronomers thought there was a 1-in-45,000 chance that Apophis would strike Earth on April 13, 2036. Then, in October 2009, the numbers were updated again, and the impact possibility decreased again. Currently, the chance of an impact with Earth by asteroid Apophis in 2036 has dropped to about 1-in-250,000. While greater than your chance of winning a lottery (many millions to one), it's still very very unlikely. That's the number David Helfand calls essentially zero. Astronomers believe the possibility will drop to absolutely zero after the early 2013 pass by Apophis."

There is zero chance that it hits us this pass. They think there is a minute chance that is essentially zero that it could hit us in 2036 but they'll be certain after it passes.


strawberrythreads.files.wordpress.com
So you're telling me there's a chance... *YEAH!*
 
2013-01-09 11:05:50 AM  
Meh, we've had a good run.
 
2013-01-09 11:06:25 AM  
Not a problem - I'm insured by AllState - they'll take care of me.

/born Jan 8th 2013
 
2013-01-09 11:06:43 AM  
Bull shiat
 
2013-01-09 11:07:54 AM  
The answer to any headline that ends in a question mark is always "No".
 
2013-01-09 11:08:01 AM  
How about I get a fresh bottle of brandy, put my seatbelt on and ride it out.
 
rpm
2013-01-09 11:08:04 AM  

Well what do you know. From the FAQ on that site

You will get paid for every view, comment, like/dislike and social media share on every post you create. The payout (per) will vary based on how much ad revenue Bubblews is making at the time. Although we do split ad revenue 50/50. We believe every user should be an equal partner.
 
2013-01-09 11:08:19 AM  

KarmicDisaster: Yeah, thanks for the misleading headline, subby. The danger from this is not on this pass, but on subsequent.  Such headlines just get people to dismiss this as nothing when there is actually a danger. At the moment this is the most potentially dangerous we have ever seen. That will be refined after this pass.


Settle down, Chicken Little. Here's one from NASA.

"The future for Apophis on Friday, April 13 of 2029 includes an approach to Earth no closer than 29,470 km (18,300 miles, or 5.6 Earth radii from the center, or 4.6 Earth-radii from the surface) over the mid-Atlantic, appearing to the naked eye as a moderately bright point of light moving rapidly across the sky. Depending on its mechanical nature, it could experience shape or spin-state alteration due to tidal forces caused by Earth's gravity field.

This is within the distance of Earth's geosynchronous satellites. However, because Apophis will pass interior to the positions of these satellites at closest approach, in a plane inclined at 40 degrees to the Earth's equator and passing outside the equatorial geosynchronous zone when crossing the equatorial plane, it does not threaten the satellites in that heavily populated region.

Using criteria developed in this research, new measurements possible in 2013 (if not 2011) will likely confirm that in 2036 Apophis will quietly pass more than 49 million km (30.5 million miles; 0.32 AU) from Earth on Easter Sunday of that year (April 13)."
 
2013-01-09 11:08:38 AM  

99sportster: John Napkintosh: I'm reading 9 million miles on other sites. Where the hell did this site get 13,000 miles?

Exactly. This guy (or gal) is an idiot. And a fear-monger. A fear-mongering idiot.


The new normal, I suspect, although the site's name of "Bubblews" is a tip-off that this isn't Edward R. Murrow country.

Mouth-breathing scribe needs a ruler, followed by a brief EVA with a cracked helmet visor.
 
2013-01-09 11:09:12 AM  
There are a lot of other articles from more reputable sites, just google it if you want to know more. Not sure why this dork site and work headline was picked to green.
 
2013-01-09 11:09:17 AM  

HMS_Blinkin: If it does it does. Nothing we can do about it.


www.mjhsbnn.com

Oh really???
 
2013-01-09 11:10:22 AM  
At this rate Apophis will hit us before TFA loads.
 
2013-01-09 11:10:30 AM  

The Bestest: I might have a foursome with Mila Kunis, Scarlett Johansen and Zoe Seldana today. Just saying.


"I've seen penis fractures and tongue fractures, son, but never on the same person at the same time."
 
2013-01-09 11:10:40 AM  

KarmicDisaster: Carn: KarmicDisaster: HMS_Blinkin: KarmicDisaster: HMS_Blinkin: If it does it does. Nothing we can do about it.

There is if we act now, there isn't if we wait until we are "sure" in 2029. They will have a better orbit this year after more observations. Then we will may to decide what to do. Maybe it will depend on who it will hit.

Where are you getting 2029 from? I thought this thing was near us today.

/farking from my phone so I might have missed something

It is the next pass that is the problem, not this one.

Yeah but even if we calculate that it's going to hit us, we have 20 years to train Bruce Willis and his team instead of just a few months so we're gonna be fine. I don't know if he'll volunteer to blow himself up again.

The real danger is going to be probabilities. People don't understand how they work. They will come out with a probability that it will hit when people want a yes no. This is big enough to possibly kill everyone, even the preppers in their bunkers. What kind of probability is acceptable? It we wait until they are 99% sure, it will be too late to deflect it. If we start early when they are 1/1000 sure, we can still do it, and the earlier we start the cheaper the mission.  Certain elements of society aren't going to want to spend money at the 1/1000 level.  Plus we don't really know enough about how to deflect these things, there are a lot of untested ideas like coating them with paint to cause a very small push by sunlight, but those things have to be applied early.


Honestly, I would support a mission like this even if we know it'll be close but not really dangerous, because it would be a good prep in case one every is in a direct path. However, I don't think many people would support that kind of expense.
 
2013-01-09 11:10:41 AM  
as long as it doesn't hit on the gulf coast or the gulf of mexico i'll be fine
 
2013-01-09 11:11:25 AM  

bighairyguy: If it hits the Westboro Baptist Church, I'm all for it.


Well, they got burned last night...
 
2013-01-09 11:12:01 AM  

Carn: KarmicDisaster: Yeah, thanks for the misleading headline, subby. The danger from this is not on this pass, but on subsequent.  Such headlines just get people to dismiss this as nothing when there is actually a danger. At the moment this is the most potentially dangerous we have ever seen. That will be refined after this pass.

Settle down, Chicken Little. Here's one from NASA.

"The future for Apophis on Friday, April 13 of 2029 includes an approach to Earth no closer than 29,470 km (18,300 miles, or 5.6 Earth radii from the center, or 4.6 Earth-radii from the surface) over the mid-Atlantic, appearing to the naked eye as a moderately bright point of light moving rapidly across the sky. Depending on its mechanical nature, it could experience shape or spin-state alteration due to tidal forces caused by Earth's gravity field.

This is within the distance of Earth's geosynchronous satellites. However, because Apophis will pass interior to the positions of these satellites at closest approach, in a plane inclined at 40 degrees to the Earth's equator and passing outside the equatorial geosynchronous zone when crossing the equatorial plane, it does not threaten the satellites in that heavily populated region.

Using criteria developed in this research, new measurements possible in 2013 (if not 2011) will likely confirm that in 2036 Apophis will quietly pass more than 49 million km (30.5 million miles; 0.32 AU) from Earth on Easter Sunday of that year (April 13)."


" will likely confirm " Like I said, people aren't going to be able to understand how probabilites work and decide how much risk they want to take. Right now it is not a big risk, but it is there. As we know more, we can get a better estimate of the odds. ATM it looks like we are mostly safe.
 
2013-01-09 11:12:40 AM  
Since everything happens in Australia first, let's see what happens there. If Australia gets hit, then we know we're farked.

/apocalypses work that way, right?
 
2013-01-09 11:12:45 AM  
Followed by faultlines that cannot sit still.
Followed by millions of dumbfounded dipshiats.
 
2013-01-09 11:13:29 AM  

Carn: KarmicDisaster: Carn: KarmicDisaster: HMS_Blinkin: KarmicDisaster: HMS_Blinkin: If it does it does. Nothing we can do about it.

There is if we act now, there isn't if we wait until we are "sure" in 2029. They will have a better orbit this year after more observations. Then we will may to decide what to do. Maybe it will depend on who it will hit.

Where are you getting 2029 from? I thought this thing was near us today.

/farking from my phone so I might have missed something

It is the next pass that is the problem, not this one.

Yeah but even if we calculate that it's going to hit us, we have 20 years to train Bruce Willis and his team instead of just a few months so we're gonna be fine. I don't know if he'll volunteer to blow himself up again.

The real danger is going to be probabilities. People don't understand how they work. They will come out with a probability that it will hit when people want a yes no. This is big enough to possibly kill everyone, even the preppers in their bunkers. What kind of probability is acceptable? It we wait until they are 99% sure, it will be too late to deflect it. If we start early when they are 1/1000 sure, we can still do it, and the earlier we start the cheaper the mission.  Certain elements of society aren't going to want to spend money at the 1/1000 level.  Plus we don't really know enough about how to deflect these things, there are a lot of untested ideas like coating them with paint to cause a very small push by sunlight, but those things have to be applied early.

Honestly, I would support a mission like this even if we know it'll be close but not really dangerous, because it would be a good prep in case one every is in a direct path. However, I don't think many people would support that kind of expense.


I dunno, we won't want to mess with a real Earth crosser until we have some experience I think. We need a mission to try to push some safe asteroid around first to get some data on how well it works.
 
2013-01-09 11:13:50 AM  
My 7 foot long leucistic rat snake is named Apophis.  Surely he will save us.
 
2013-01-09 11:13:57 AM  
Your blog sucks.

Today was never a possible impact, just a chance to line up a future impact. Better data has ruled out 2029 but there's still a tiny chance for 2036 and beyond. Keep an eye on http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/ to see what else might be heading our way.

There are pictures (well, a few pixels) of Apophis here if anyone's curious.
 
2013-01-09 11:14:14 AM  

rpm: Well what do you know. From the FAQ on that site

You will get paid for every view, comment, like/dislike and social media share on every post you create. The payout (per) will vary based on how much ad revenue Bubblews is making at the time. Although we do split ad revenue 50/50. We believe every user should be an equal partner.


I saw no ads. What do I win?
 
2013-01-09 11:16:49 AM  

WarszawaScream: My 7 foot long leucistic rat snake is named Apophis.


Funny, that's what I say to the missus.
 
2013-01-09 11:17:58 AM  
Complete Bullshiat. Apophis is 0.0966 AU. 1AU= 149 597 871 kilometers

That is 14,451,154km away.....

Someone got thier math wrong.
 
2013-01-09 11:17:59 AM  
I didn't want to live into my 40's. Give me a baby or bring on the death comet.
 
2013-01-09 11:18:50 AM  

Guns n' Farkin Roses: HMS_Blinkin: If it does it does. Nothing we can do about it.

[www.mjhsbnn.com image 350x237]

Oh really???


Too bad we don't have an operating manned spaceship of any type to get him there.  Only Russia and China have manned rockets now, and they can only reach low Earth orbit which will just give them a better view of the fireworks.
 
2013-01-09 11:19:57 AM  

KarmicDisaster: Carn: KarmicDisaster: Yeah, thanks for the misleading headline, subby. The danger from this is not on this pass, but on subsequent.  Such headlines just get people to dismiss this as nothing when there is actually a danger. At the moment this is the most potentially dangerous we have ever seen. That will be refined after this pass.

Settle down, Chicken Little. Here's one from NASA.

"The future for Apophis on Friday, April 13 of 2029 includes an approach to Earth no closer than 29,470 km (18,300 miles, or 5.6 Earth radii from the center, or 4.6 Earth-radii from the surface) over the mid-Atlantic, appearing to the naked eye as a moderately bright point of light moving rapidly across the sky. Depending on its mechanical nature, it could experience shape or spin-state alteration due to tidal forces caused by Earth's gravity field.

This is within the distance of Earth's geosynchronous satellites. However, because Apophis will pass interior to the positions of these satellites at closest approach, in a plane inclined at 40 degrees to the Earth's equator and passing outside the equatorial geosynchronous zone when crossing the equatorial plane, it does not threaten the satellites in that heavily populated region.

Using criteria developed in this research, new measurements possible in 2013 (if not 2011) will likely confirm that in 2036 Apophis will quietly pass more than 49 million km (30.5 million miles; 0.32 AU) from Earth on Easter Sunday of that year (April 13)."

" will likely confirm " Like I said, people aren't going to be able to understand how probabilites work and decide how much risk they want to take. Right now it is not a big risk, but it is there. As we know more, we can get a better estimate of the odds. ATM it looks like we are mostly safe.


Now that I think about it, I think it'll be better if it is more likely to hit us. We have 23 (16?) years to prepare, and it wouldn't destroy the entire planet if we failed. Do we go with mega-ground based cannons? Lunar deflection ray? Lunar atomic asteroid smasher? Bruce Willis style commando team? Anything that encourages us to start exploring at least our own solar system and paves the way for colonizing space is a good thing. Something will eventually do very bad things to Earth's surface. Solar flare, asteroid, angry aliens, Justin Bieber, something. Sure, it might be a million years, but ask the dinosaurs if they think they should have spent more on asteroid defense technology.
 
2013-01-09 11:20:12 AM  

shifter_: Complete Bullshiat. Apophis is 0.0966 AU. 1AU= 149 597 871 kilometers

That is 14,451,154km away.....

Someone got thier math wrong.


Gah, I give up. How many people are going to come in here to say that the headline is stupid. The mods must be crazy.
 
2013-01-09 11:20:30 AM  

Deucednuisance: Well, they got burned last night...


Well, crap, that's the wrong clip, and I don't see the right one onsite.

Nevermind....
 
2013-01-09 11:20:35 AM  

John Napkintosh: I'm reading 9 million miles on other sites. Where the hell did this site get 13,000 miles?


marketing department
 
2013-01-09 11:20:55 AM  
XUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUR!


Someone get me a Gunstar and we'll get this sorted out.
 
2013-01-09 11:21:09 AM  

ha-ha-guy: I'm more curious to see if manages to clip a satellite or two on the way past.


It won't. But if it did, wouldn't it be hilarious if it took out Best Korea's?
 
2013-01-09 11:21:48 AM  

BraveNewCheneyWorld: Impact simulator.. have fun playing with the possibilities.


Damn, was hoping for more explosions. Still, the animation does always have the projectile slamming into the North East US, so there's that.

/I keed!
 
2013-01-09 11:22:50 AM  

ima turkey: It's Obamas fault.


Yup, totally Obamas fault  Link
 
2013-01-09 11:23:41 AM  

Carn: Honestly, I would support a mission like this even if we know it'll be close but not really dangerous, because it would be a good prep in case one every is in a direct path. However, I don't think many people would support that kind of expense.


Agreed. It'd be REALLY good for us as a species to get some practice at doing something like this. And to people complaining about the cost, just think about how expensive it will be if we all have to pitch in to help rebuild, say, all of South America. It would be thousands, if not millions, of times cheaper to launch a couple of rockets now.
 
2013-01-09 11:23:47 AM  

John Napkintosh: I'm reading 9 million miles on other sites. Where the hell did this site get 13,000 miles?


Gallop did the calculations. To be fair they did say there was a +/- 10,000,000 mile error.
 
2013-01-09 11:24:12 AM  
media.comicvine.com

He's not that big, couldn't possibly do that much damage.
 
2013-01-09 11:26:08 AM  
OK, so it's almost certainly not a happening deal. But let's say, for the sake of argument only, that the 2029 thing was a significant risk. Significant to the extent that "something must be done".

What is the current thinking on how to attack such a problem, if we got started on it today? Sixteen years is a fairly long time, and we can assume some technological advances will occur... but we can't know what they will be.

Bottom line: what would we start doing now to fix this, and who would be the people working it out for the next 16 years?

/just a 'what if'
//this time
 
2013-01-09 11:28:57 AM  
You have no chance to survive make your time.
 
2013-01-09 11:30:43 AM  

Mr_Fabulous: OK, so it's almost certainly not a happening deal. But let's say, for the sake of argument only, that the 2029 thing was a significant risk. Significant to the extent that "something must be done".

What is the current thinking on how to attack such a problem, if we got started on it today? Sixteen years is a fairly long time, and we can assume some technological advances will occur... but we can't know what they will be.

Bottom line: what would we start doing now to fix this, and who would be the people working it out for the next 16 years?

/just a 'what if'
//this time


Yes, because 16 years is plenty of time to halt a looming international catastrophe. Just look how well Kyoto did.
 
2013-01-09 11:31:30 AM  
Where is Superman? Oh No we have no phone booths!
 
2013-01-09 11:32:42 AM  

zarberg: [media.comicvine.com image 300x216]

He's not that big, couldn't possibly do that much damage.


What if he's stuffed full of naquadah?

/don't ask me how.
 
2013-01-09 11:34:37 AM  

Bungles: Just look how well Kyoto did.


I've been to Kyoto; it's a lovely town.

No idea what point you're trying to make, but clearly you didn't understand my question. Good day.
 
2013-01-09 11:34:42 AM  

Mr_Fabulous: What is the current thinking on how to attack such a problem, if we got started on it today?


Current thinking? Burn down all of the world's observatories and then go back to watching reality TV.
 
2013-01-09 11:34:58 AM  
Meh. Even if it hits us, it's not big enough to affect us on a global scale. On the off chance it hits land it will ruin a bunch of people's day, but we're not talking an extinction level event.
 
2013-01-09 11:35:13 AM  
According to another article, it will be streamed live by an Australian site on Thursday around 11:00 am (Australian) from a space camera, SLOOH. Check back before 4:00 pm (LA, PST) or 7:00 pm (Ottawa, EST). There's an event count down clock on the site.

Here's a world clock.

Don't take my word for it. Check the time for yourself to be sure you get the right local time and other details.
 
2013-01-09 11:35:32 AM  
There is an exciting one coming up in February, but only in the sense of potential satellite damage.

DA14
 
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