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(NFL)   WILL the Cincinnati Bengals win their first playoff game in 22 years? WILL the Houston Texans follow their atrocious December with a January win? It's your NFL Playoff Game 1 thread, 4:30 p.m. EST on NBC   (nfl.com) divider line 1231
    More: Spiffy, Texans, playoffs  
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346 clicks; posted to Sports » on 05 Jan 2013 at 3:30 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-01-05 11:13:28 AM
4.bp.blogspot.com
 
2013-01-05 12:05:25 PM
@ HOU -4     CIN 43
CIN outright. CIN on a 7-1 streak (including strong wins vs BALT, PIT, their last loss coming by 1 against DAL), HOU on a 4-3 finish, needign OT to beat the Lions and Jags, and with anemic losses to playoff teams (scored 14 vs Pats and a mighty 6 vs Vikes two weeks ago.  each has a 6-2 record when home / OTR.  CIN outright baby!

@ GB  -7.5     MIN 45.5
GB 7-1 home, MIN 3-5 OTR.  Big line, I don't think the teams are thaaaaaaaaaaat far apart.  Weather will be a factor with subzero temps, I read (not that either is new to cold weax, but just saying).  Only thing I like here is the under.  Gonna pick MIN to cover, somehow.  I think GB wins but the margin will be around a TD, on the order of 23-16, 24-17.

@ BALT -7     IND 47
Upset special:  I think IND wins this outright.  Balt finished the second half an unimpressive 5-4, and their wins and losses are telling (they split vs the Steelers):  beat CLE, OAK, San Dog (needing OT, at that), and NYG.  Bad teams.  Their losses: Donks, CIN, and WASH (albeit in OT).  Hmmm....what do those teams have in common?  I'm not calling BALT fake, but I do think that's telling.  Now, given IND's schedule, they racked up wins vs bad teams and also had losses to playoff teams, but they seem to be peaking at the right time.  And if nothing has fazed Luck yet through 17 weeks, I doubt today he'll wilt.  Gonna pick the moneyline special for this one, screw the points, IND finds a way to heist this one and send Ray Lewis to Bristol, CT a bit sooner than he'd like.


SEA -3     @ Washington     46
Can't wait for this one.....I checked the liner earlier this week, and I think it was SEA at 4.5 if i'm not mistaken.  SEA is the NFL leader in scoring defense (15.3 per), while WASH is 22nd at 24.2.  But, WASH is 5th in scoring (27.2) whereas SEA is 17th, at 25.8.  I heard that there is some concern over how healthy "Bobby Three Sticks" (i think i first read that here, that's awesome) is and obviously, SEA has a strong defense (and with the suspensions either served or overturned, their secondary may cause BTS some headaches.  Don't know if WEAX is a factor......I think SEA handily wins this one.  low double digits.  I said earlier in i think the black friday thread that I think SEA by 10, nothign has made me change my mind.
 
2013-01-05 12:11:43 PM
I fully expect Houston's collapse to continue.
 
2013-01-05 12:34:38 PM
Texans gameday preperation kit....

Antacid
Tums
Pepto
BC Powder (economy pack)
Punching bag
Blindfold
Muzzle
Shotgun
Facepalm relief cream
Moonshine in an I.V. drip

Please guys, just don't let me start hearing circus music on the first drive.

*sigh* Go Texans
 
2013-01-05 01:07:35 PM

simplicimus: I fully expect Houston's collapse to continue.


From your lips to god's ears.

Rooting for the Bengals this afternoon (Cat Team Brotherhood!), happy with whoever wins tonight, pulling for Ravens and then once again I am happy whether Bobby Three Sticks or The Merger wins tomorrow.
 
2013-01-05 01:12:12 PM

Three Crooked Squirrels: [4.bp.blogspot.com image 466x700]


I'd spike that!

Go Bengals, I'd like to see another playoff win in my lifetime (I remember their last SB loss).
 
2013-01-05 01:12:28 PM
Good day for Fubol. Prepping a full steamer of Snow Crab, skrimps, sausage and taters. Along with some wings that have been soaking all night in hot chili sauce and lime juice. They go on the grill. Some Ice Cold Shiner Blondes finish the narrative.

I like Houston and MintySoda today. Trollhawks and Lucky Ponies tomorrow.
 
2013-01-05 01:20:14 PM
As long as the Patriots don't get stuck with Baltimore, I'm happy.
 
2013-01-05 01:30:09 PM

Three Crooked Squirrels: [4.bp.blogspot.com image 466x700]


go bengals cheerleader!
 
2013-01-05 01:31:29 PM
Anyone playing  http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/ ?

Is there a Fark group like last year?  I'd set one up but wouldn't want to presume there isn't one.
 
2013-01-05 01:33:29 PM

Nefarious: Anyone playing  http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/ ?

Is there a Fark group like last year?  I'd set one up but wouldn't want to presume there isn't one.


I'd be into it. I'm playing the ESPN one, but I'm up for another.
 
2013-01-05 01:50:23 PM
http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/

Group: FarkPlayoffChallenge PW: Fark

Come play for bragging rights
 
2013-01-05 01:54:49 PM
Ok Green Bay, time to do what you know you can do and out score the Vikings.

Bengals, you can win too, I just don't have any faith in the Texans anymore.

Now, if Green Bay wins, then my wife's Packers go to San Francisco and play my beloved Forty Niners.   It will be an interesting day in the nvmac household.
 
2013-01-05 01:59:08 PM

Nefarious: http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/

Group: FarkPlayoffChallenge PW: Fark

Come play for bragging rights


Say something on TFD and you will get more.  I am joenin
 
2013-01-05 02:07:15 PM
Rooting for "good" or at least entertaining football today.

I should be picking the Texans but I like the Bengals in this game.
I expect Green-Ellis to run well and keep the Texans D honest, which should open things up for Cincy's receiver's.
 
2013-01-05 02:08:23 PM

Primitive Screwhead: Rooting for "good" or at least entertaining football today.

I should be picking the Texans but I like the Bengals in this game.
I expect Green-Ellis to run well and keep the Texans D honest, which should open things up for Cincy's receiver's.


If I have learned thing about cinci in my almost 30 years of living here, it is that just when you think you have a glimmer of a reason to be hopeful is when they crush you hardest.
 
2013-01-05 02:17:19 PM

Nefarious: http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/

Group: FarkPlayoffChallenge PW: Fark

Come play for bragging rights


Thanks for setting it up.

NickelP: If I have learned thing about cinci in my almost 30 years of living here, it is that just when you think you have a glimmer of a reason to be hopeful is when they crush you hardest.


Maybe not today, maybe not.
 
2013-01-05 02:41:52 PM
Here we are at the playoffs and Jerry Jones had to blow my perfect prediction by not going on a rampage and firing Romo/Garret this week. He's getting old. First he loses the website to some guy named Taco and now this.

Houston in the early game; Packers in the late game (AP with 74 yards rushing)
 
2013-01-05 03:04:35 PM

Nefarious: http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/

Group: FarkPlayoffChallenge PW: Fark

Come play for bragging rights


I'm in. Prepare to have a bad day. dschultz99's picks!
 
2013-01-05 03:11:45 PM
Yes and yes.  It's Caturday.  Who Dey, all day.
 
2013-01-05 03:26:38 PM
As a Steelers fan I think I'll root for the Be-gals just out of pity.
 
2013-01-05 03:31:29 PM
What's the weather in Lamebo for tonight? Might influence my fubol picks for playoff challenge.
 
2013-01-05 03:34:29 PM
So what time are the Cowboys playing?
 
2013-01-05 03:36:43 PM
Yes!!!

2 Consecutive years and my hometown team is relevant in January! Let's go Bengals! Who Dey!?!?! First time since I was 5 years old.
 
2013-01-05 03:38:19 PM

AliceBToklasLives: So what time are the Cowboys playing?


I think Tony had a 1 o'clock tee time at Los Colinas.
 
2013-01-05 03:39:20 PM

Lt. Cheese Weasel: Nefarious: http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/

Group: FarkPlayoffChallenge PW: Fark

Come play for bragging rights

I'm in. Prepare to have a bad day. dschultz99's picks!


Derp. Cheese Weasels! C'mon ya'll, fill this thing up.
 
2013-01-05 03:40:12 PM

Lt. Cheese Weasel: What's the weather in Lamebo for tonight? Might influence my fubol picks for playoff challenge.


Might be some flurries or freezing drizzle around the second half, from what I can tell.
 
2013-01-05 03:40:31 PM

Nefarious: http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/

Group: FarkPlayoffChallenge PW: Fark

Come play for bragging rights


GOOD LORD, NFL's website has become bloated and slow to load. It almost crashed Ghostery.
 
2013-01-05 03:41:11 PM
Saturday, 430PM
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
Cinci was 12th in points, 17th in pass yards, and 18th in rush yards. All goodish numbers. +4 in turnovers isn't great, but it's a positive integer, at least. While Dalton wasn't bad this year, he wasn't great either....62.3% completions, 27/16 TD-INT, 87.4 rating. Only 6.9 yards per, though, and he ate 46 sacks. That ain't good.
What I DO like about watching this team play is the fire the defensive unit comes out on the field with. They play hard and there are a lot of 'effort plays' that don't make the ESPN highlight reels but add up to decide games. Tackles in the backfield...swarming to the ball, so even if the first guy misses, he slows the runner enough to limit the gain for the clean-up hit to bring them down...these kind of things really end up affecting field position and who stays on the sideline a lot more than the talking heads ever think to point out.

Houston really confounds me. They've really shiat the bed in the last month. JJ Watt is from another planet, I think, but they seem to be counting on an ability to "Turn it back on" for the playoffs. Ask the Giants how well that seems to work. I don't know if you CAN 'turn it back on' unless you made a conscious effort to turn it OFF in the first place, and anyone that does that during an NFL season needs to be drug out back and violated with a broom handle. Or shot, one of the two. The last three games I've watched of them look flat and uninspired....like they're going through the motions.
I'm also really a bit surprised at the heat coming under Matt Shaub. He reminds me a lot of Philip Rivers....tons of stats, reliably, every year. Usually good for a bunch of wins. Then comes up short at the end. This team is, first and foremost, a run and screen/dump pass team, and as long as the oline blocks well and Arian Foster is healthy, they'll grind up and down the field and keep the chains moving. Andre Johnson is still a monster even after all these years, and although he's really lost a step in speed and quickness, he's made up for it with size, strength, and veteran guile.

I'm not sold on coming off a month of flat performances, especially when you've submarined from the solid #1 seed to three consecutive losses and the #3 seed playing in the wild card weekend. But, this game really is a strength versus strength game: Houston's grind-it-out offense against Cinci's scrappy, attitude, gut-check punch you in the mouth defense. Then, it's Cinci's open, pass-happy offense against the mobile and dangerous Houston 3-4.
Vegas still has the home team Texans by ~4.5ish. I disagree. The playoffs are about more than Xs and Os. My money, straight up for the W, no points or spread or anything...is on the Bengals.


Saturday, 800PM
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Minnesota is actually sneakier good than you might think. Yea, yea, coming from me that's saying something. But examine, for a moment, if you will:
First, in order for AP to lay pipe across the length and breadth of the NFL in rushing this year like he did, you can't have a crap oline. It don't work that way. For him for crack 2000 and fall short of the Hallowed Dickerson All-Time Record by...27 feet? That oline is getting it DONE. Although quietly.
Then, you have AP himself. Assuming he's human in the first place, which I'm not 100% sure of. Especially since Percy Harvin went on IR, AP *is* that offense, and even when defenses put 7, and often *8* men in the box...IT DOESN'T MATTER. Let that sink in a minute. He's putting up those gaudy running numbers against 7 and 8 men fronts ALL the time. Its kinda sick, really, how monstrous he is.
Jared Allen and Chad Greenway dictate way more offense than you'd believe by looking at stat sheets, and Harrison Smith is going to be an All Pro for a long time if he can stay healthy. Really, they only need Ponder to calm the hell down and develop a bit and they're going to be in a pretty good place. Oh, wait...what's that you say? He married a sports-reporter-sideline-sweetie and has started to mellow out and show patience in the passing game? Well, shiat.

Then, we get to Green Bay. *sigh* So up and down.
The defense has been hammered by injury this year, and Dom Capers' scheme of 'give up yards but make big plays and takeaways' has been misfiring a lot as a result of the new personnel. As such, they're statistically horrible in pretty much every way. However, the bright spot is that they tend to SLOWLY get beat, so the offense gets some down time on the sidelines. Wow, did I have to reach for that one.
But, the other side of the coin....Aaron Rodgers and the offense. Even with all the injuries this year, A-Rod has been money pretty much all year. As long as he's upright, even the shiatty Green Bay oline doesn't matter, and the Packers are IN every game. And now that the big names are healthy as a unit for the first time all year, maybe JaMoron Finley can drop a few more passes that hit him in the hands and finally trigger a trade to another team for decent return value. Hey, I can hope!
Vegas still has the Pack as a 7 point favorite at home, and I can live with that. It ain't that Minnesota is all that bad, right now. But #12 is that good when he's running the Packers offense. Green Bay at home for the win.


Sunday, 100PM
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens
Talk about your feel-good stories. Indianapolis goes from the worst team in football (and not just a little, either, but by a LOT) to playoff contenders. Luck. Reggie Wayne. Pagano/Arians. I mean, really? Could you make this any MORE a Readers Digest Happy Time Holiday Show? They're a half-dozen Oompa Loompas and a Gene Wilder cameo away from "Andrew and Chocolate Rookie of the Year Factory".
The telling thing that I saw about this team was in in more than just last weeks 'upset' of Houston at home. It was in the assbeating of Green Bay as well:
Pick a play. Any play. The ball is snapped, the ball is run or thrown. Watch carefully now, as the TV cameras usually follow the 'skill position' guys and make it hard to see, but WATCH CAREFULLY. The Indianapolis linemen get blocked down, they hit the turf with their man, and then GET UP AND RUN AFTER THE PLAY.
Really. Watch the game tape over again. They're one of maybe 4 or so squads in the NFL that has players that do this. Most do not. 300+ pound guys, after being blocked down and being 'in the pile' generally take their time getting up and kind of mill around and meander to wherever the line of scrimmage will be on the next play. Its just how it is. The big guys in the trenches that eat the mud and bleed every damn game generally don't do a whole lot of real running on 80+% of snaps or 25ish teams. Really. Pick your favorite team, go to youtube, and look at random play highlight reels from last year. You'll see the big guys pretty much stop once the ball is 5 yards away on 90% of plays. Cinci, Indy, and New England are three of the best this year at NOT giving up, and they make a lot of plays 'off camera' as a result. Those plays add up over the course of a game.

Now, Baltimore. You're dangerously close to the above-mentioned "Can we turn it back on for the playoffs" question, and I don't know that you can. You're old. You're not that fast any more. You're fragile and get blocked out a lot more now.
Sure, you still have big name players that occasionally show up, but you're getting a lot more production out of a bunch of who-dats (Lookin' at you, Kruger!) than anyone else. You've got Ray Rice, but your line isn't run blocking like they used to. Yea, you've got Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin, but are they enough?

I picked Baltimore a lot of times this season only to see them lose, even at home. I'm sorry, but they look to me like they're running on fumes and reputation at this point. I'll put my money with Indy, regardless of Vegas telling me the Ravens by 6.


Sunday, 430PM
Seahawks @ Redskins
The Seahawks have become a complete team. It used to be that while they were hell on earth to play at home, when you got them on the road they could be had. Looking back at the schedule, they've lost all of TWICE in the second half of the season on the road, and both losses were one score or less. Russel Wilson would be rookie of the year in any other year, but the QB class of last year will one day be viewed like '83 is now. Their defense is fast and aggressive, but they tackle well when they go for the big play and miss, limiting the YAC.
All in all, the oline is solid and Marshawn Lnych has his Skittles and beastmode. Opportunistic defense, good special teams...they are a force to be reckoned with all the way around.

Then you come to Washington. At one point 3-6 and in 'evaluation mode', I'm not sure if Shanahanadingdong is a genius or a giant, flaming dickhead for that comment. Can he be both?
Anyhow, apparently it worked. Since then the inspired play of 'Bobby Three-Sticks' and an injury depleted but hard-charging defense have rung up a solid season. Add in another noteworthy who-dat in Alfred Morris (FAU!) and all of the sudden, you're in the playoffs!
RG3 is going to be a very, very good thing for the Redskins for a long time. He apparently learned that painful lesson well about staying healthy very early in his career, and that's good...it should hopefully allow him to stick around longer and spend less time in the trainers' room.

Vegas has the visiting Seahawks up by about 4, and I think that's fair. I'll take Seattle as well, but don't discount Washington and the bright future they have. For now though, my cash is squarely behind Russ Wilson.
 
2013-01-05 03:41:16 PM
Ok vikes, just do your farking jobs. Defense: you guys are just fine, keep doing what you're doing. Just feed AP the farking rock and he will bring us to the promise land.
 
2013-01-05 03:41:16 PM
Bengals +4.5 over Texans. They may even win.

Packers -7.5 over Vikings in probably the most lopsided game this weekend.

Ravens -6.5 over Colts. Nice stories don't win playoff games.

Seahawks -3 over Redskins. The road schedule will eventually doom the Seahawks but not this week.
 
2013-01-05 03:41:51 PM
For lack of anyone better to root for, I have picked Indy and Washington.
 
2013-01-05 03:44:07 PM

Lt. Cheese Weasel: AliceBToklasLives: So what time are the Cowboys playing?

I think Tony had a 1 o'clock tee time at Los Colinas.


Did he take the water taxi or the monorail?
 
2013-01-05 03:44:22 PM

NickelP: Primitive Screwhead: Rooting for "good" or at least entertaining football today.

I should be picking the Texans but I like the Bengals in this game.
I expect Green-Ellis to run well and keep the Texans D honest, which should open things up for Cincy's receiver's.

If I have learned thing about cinci in my almost 30 years of living here, it is that just when you think you have a glimmer of a reason to be hopeful is when they crush you hardest.


This. Bengals fans will be crushed (along with all other non-Pats fans) when they lose the AFC Championship at New England.
 
2013-01-05 03:45:12 PM

NickelP: Primitive Screwhead: Rooting for "good" or at least entertaining football today.

I should be picking the Texans but I like the Bengals in this game.
I expect Green-Ellis to run well and keep the Texans D honest, which should open things up for Cincy's receiver's.

If I have learned thing about cinci in my almost 30 years of living here, it is that just when you think you have a glimmer of a reason to be hopeful is when they crush you hardest.


I'm not holding any expectations for the Bengals today. If they lose, I hope it's close. But damn, do I hope they win it.
 
2013-01-05 03:45:37 PM

UNC_Samurai: Lt. Cheese Weasel: AliceBToklasLives: So what time are the Cowboys playing?

I think Tony had a 1 o'clock tee time at Los Colinas.

Did he take the water taxi or the monorail?


He was gonna fly in but the chopper got intercepted. doh.........
 
2013-01-05 03:49:15 PM
Lt. Cheese Weasel What's the weather in Lamebo for tonight? Might influence my fubol picks for playoff challenge.

Let's check... it says "outside". Given that the Minnesota QB is Christian Ponder, that's all you really need to know.
 
2013-01-05 03:51:20 PM
xaks:

Nice analyses.

What worries me about Cincinnati is if Lawfirm is healthy. (I don't care what his "official status" is.) I think Dalton will be a fine quarterback for a lot of years for the Bengals, but he still gets his 3-4 stupid throws per game, and he'll press without a solid running game.
 
2013-01-05 03:52:45 PM
I'll say Cincy outright as Matt Schaub folds like a house of cards in his first playoff game. Green Bay over Minnesota rather largely. Baltimore beats Indy barely. Seattle over Washington in overtime.
 
2013-01-05 03:52:56 PM
Ive seen kids commit to Miami and Ohio State

What the hell are they thinking?
 
2013-01-05 03:53:42 PM
My picks

Houston -4 covers and wins
Green Bay -7.5 wins but doesn't cover
Baltimore -7 wins and covers
Seattle -3 wins and covers

I personally hope all four of those teams lose though
 
2013-01-05 03:54:33 PM
Today I pick Texas and Minnesota to win

Skol Y'all.
 
2013-01-05 03:55:52 PM

mikaloyd: Today I pick Texas and Minnesota to win

Skol Y'all.


Yeah. As much as I like Green Bay, I'm leaning toward wanting the Vikings to win just because of the whole underdog thing.

Also Kluwe.
 
2013-01-05 03:56:11 PM

Palmer Eldritch: Lt. Cheese Weasel What's the weather in Lamebo for tonight? Might influence my fubol picks for playoff challenge.

Let's check... it says "outside". Given that the Minnesota QB is Christian Ponder, that's all you really need to know.


Smart moola says go with Discount Double Check, but if the weather is crap, RGIII and Wilson looks good. Got to make picks that last more than one week. Get them point multipliers....another option is take Peyton and sacrifice a week for a multiplier.
 
2013-01-05 03:57:23 PM
As much as I don't want to see it, the Texans will roll today.

Big running game, big pass rush.
 
2013-01-05 03:58:25 PM
Is this thread just for the Texans game?

I hope to see the Vikes score first, so I can get a decent line on the Packers live. Missed out on -7 (buying the hook).
 
2013-01-05 03:58:32 PM
Won't be able to post much today. I'm watching the game(s) with family.

Rooting for the Bengals, obviously, and I think they might have a shot this time. Couldn't care less about the other games, but I'll pick GB, SEA, and... BAL, maybe?
 
2013-01-05 03:59:17 PM
Did they really just start off all playoff coverage by showing Romo fumble away a win trying to hold for a kicker? I think they did
 
2013-01-05 04:01:12 PM
http://playoffchallenge.fantasy.nfl.com/

Group: FarkPlayoffChallenge PW: Fark

30 to kickoff
 
2013-01-05 04:01:37 PM
JJ watt is too long, apparently.
 
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