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(Daily Mail)   Crime rates dramatically dropped in the 2000s because of. A) Fewer immigrants. B) Increased police presence. C) Unleaded gasoline   (dailymail.co.uk) divider line 21
    More: Unlikely, off-road vehicles, Tulane University, inquiries  
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9737 clicks; posted to Main » on 04 Jan 2013 at 12:36 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-01-03 11:54:13 PM  
9 votes:
D) Legalized abortion
2013-01-04 12:39:45 AM  
6 votes:
Instead of click-fellating the Daily Fail, here's a link to the original article. The evidence really is compelling.
2013-01-04 12:49:13 AM  
4 votes:

fusillade762: D) Legalized abortion


I'm inclined to think it's both.

Unwanted children raised in impoverished environments where they'll be exposed to more toxins. It's like the origin story for bad supervillains.
2013-01-04 12:44:44 AM  
3 votes:
I'm not gonna get to the correlation/causation argument, but, unleading gasoline was incredibly important, as lead is a pretty awful poison and the tetraethyllead ban decreased lead pollution significantly. Would be funny if it could be tied to crime rates, but crime has so many other factors associated with it.
2013-01-04 01:10:18 AM  
2 votes:
I think it's just 'cause kids are just farkin' lazy nowadays

and too fat to get into any serious mischief besides
2013-01-04 01:08:29 AM  
2 votes:

fusillade762: D) Legalized abortion


That's a fun one, but realistically unprovable.  The data to prove it simply doesn't exist.  It may be a case of causation and correlation.

Keeping on the biological aspect, there's a chance it could be the increasing levels of estrogen in the water that is making us less violent.  That rise in estrogen is well documented, from chemicals and things like birth control pills.  The levels are high enough to cause deformations in some fish.
2013-01-04 12:53:35 AM  
2 votes:
More Lead = More Stupid;

More Stupid = More Crime.

Seems pretty sensible to me.
2013-01-04 12:51:34 AM  
2 votes:
Why the unlikely tag? Lead toxicity comes with psychotic behavior. This isn't debatable. And lo and behold, the first generation to grow up not inhaling it every waking moment of every day is less violent than the previous two that did.
Esn
2013-01-04 12:48:07 AM  
2 votes:
Why's that unlikely? The evidence seems pretty compelling.

Although I can see why free will advocates would be outraged and attempt to discredit this.
2013-01-04 12:53:42 PM  
1 votes:
Jim_Callahan: "(E) The continuation of the trend from the '90s that's been basically perfectly consistent no matter how much or little we do in the way of additional initiatives?"

The question being asked is "what caused the trend," not "what caused the last x years of the trend."
And the question isn't even just "what caused the decline in crime," but "what caused the original *increase* in crime" as well.

The environmental lead theory is the best data-supported answer we have. Better than "more prisons." Better than "more cops." Better than "broken window." Better than family planning.

Because -- unlike every single alternative theory -- the lead theory it not only fits every piece of data on crime rate *declines* but the original *increase* in the crime rate as well.
None of those other theories even try to explain *why* crime exploded when it did, where it did.

But environmental lead provided falsifiable predictions and has thus far held remarkably well.
2013-01-04 03:23:00 AM  
1 votes:
ksj.mit.edu
www.mindfully.org

My god... it was in front of us ALL along!

Children NEED lead to prevent autism, autism is a LEAD DEFICIENCY!!
2013-01-04 02:45:42 AM  
1 votes:
extranosalley.com

Michigan Homicides peaked around '87.

My Little Pony'n Friends began running in syndication in '87.

QED My Little Pony is responsible for the global drop in crime.

Thank you. Where's my nobel prize in applied economics.
2013-01-04 01:53:48 AM  
1 votes:

Jim_Callahan: (E) The continuation of the trend from the '90s that's been basically perfectly consistent no matter how much or little we do in the way of additional initiatives?

//Well, organized crime's a bit down over the last 4 years or so because of the huge crackdown.


The US and Canada started phasing out leaded gasoline in the mid '70s, 20 years before Europe, and it was almost completely gone by the mid '90s. If leaded gasoline does indeed contribute to criminal behaviour, it makes sense that a significant decline on the crime rate in North American began in the '90s.
2013-01-04 01:34:36 AM  
1 votes:

Ed Willy: Also, end the drug war and see the number of arrests go down.


FTFY.
2013-01-04 01:24:47 AM  
1 votes:

lewismarktwo: The internet.


Yeah, internet porn is another big deterrent. Guys have oceans of videos at their fingertips, they jack off, eat a snack, and fall asleep. Not so many frustrated desires.
2013-01-04 01:20:25 AM  
1 votes:
It's all because Obama banned guns, just like the forwarded email suggested.
2013-01-04 12:58:27 AM  
1 votes:
(E) The continuation of the trend from the '90s that's been basically perfectly consistent no matter how much or little we do in the way of additional initiatives?

//Well, organized crime's a bit down over the last 4 years or so because of the huge crackdown.
2013-01-04 12:58:22 AM  
1 votes:

fusillade762: D) Legalized abortion


This was my first guess after reading Freakonomics. There were some problems with how Levitt came about this theory (Google Christopher Foote of Boston Fed), and he does concede programming errors, though he still argues that the impact of that error is minimal and that his theory is likely correct.

How can it not play a role? It seems intuitive that unwanted people may pose more of a threat to society than wanted people.
2013-01-04 12:54:28 AM  
1 votes:
Smart phones everywhere = far more video evidence and much faster response times. Greatly increases the risk. Plus, most people stopped carrying cash and started carrying plastic.
2013-01-04 12:40:12 AM  
1 votes:
2013-01-04 12:38:34 AM  
1 votes:
Pretty sure leaded gasoline is responsible for the Tea Party.
 
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