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(Daily Mail)   Crime rates dramatically dropped in the 2000s because of. A) Fewer immigrants. B) Increased police presence. C) Unleaded gasoline   (dailymail.co.uk) divider line 109
    More: Unlikely, off-road vehicles, Tulane University, inquiries  
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9731 clicks; posted to Main » on 04 Jan 2013 at 12:36 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-01-03 11:54:13 PM  
D) Legalized abortion
 
2013-01-04 12:38:34 AM  
Pretty sure leaded gasoline is responsible for the Tea Party.
 
2013-01-04 12:39:45 AM  
Instead of click-fellating the Daily Fail, here's a link to the original article. The evidence really is compelling.
 
2013-01-04 12:40:12 AM  
 
2013-01-04 12:43:49 AM  
D) Better access to abortion services.
 
2013-01-04 12:44:00 AM  
If we can get rid of the shiat food poor people eat (in part due to the USA farm bill favoring high-fructose corn syrup and artery clogging meat) imagine how much more productive citizens we'd have.

Also, end the drug and see the number of arrests go down.
 
2013-01-04 12:44:38 AM  

fusillade762: D) Legalized abortion


I came to say this.
 
2013-01-04 12:44:44 AM  
I'm not gonna get to the correlation/causation argument, but, unleading gasoline was incredibly important, as lead is a pretty awful poison and the tetraethyllead ban decreased lead pollution significantly. Would be funny if it could be tied to crime rates, but crime has so many other factors associated with it.
 
Esn
2013-01-04 12:48:07 AM  
Why's that unlikely? The evidence seems pretty compelling.

Although I can see why free will advocates would be outraged and attempt to discredit this.
 
2013-01-04 12:49:13 AM  

fusillade762: D) Legalized abortion


I'm inclined to think it's both.

Unwanted children raised in impoverished environments where they'll be exposed to more toxins. It's like the origin story for bad supervillains.
 
2013-01-04 12:51:34 AM  
Why the unlikely tag? Lead toxicity comes with psychotic behavior. This isn't debatable. And lo and behold, the first generation to grow up not inhaling it every waking moment of every day is less violent than the previous two that did.
 
2013-01-04 12:53:35 AM  
More Lead = More Stupid;

More Stupid = More Crime.

Seems pretty sensible to me.
 
2013-01-04 12:53:49 AM  
D) A resurgence in the popularity of the Spirograph.
Oh, and legalized abortion.
 
2013-01-04 12:54:28 AM  
Smart phones everywhere = far more video evidence and much faster response times. Greatly increases the risk. Plus, most people stopped carrying cash and started carrying plastic.
 
2013-01-04 12:54:54 AM  
D) Private space flights?
 
2013-01-04 12:58:22 AM  

fusillade762: D) Legalized abortion


This was my first guess after reading Freakonomics. There were some problems with how Levitt came about this theory (Google Christopher Foote of Boston Fed), and he does concede programming errors, though he still argues that the impact of that error is minimal and that his theory is likely correct.

How can it not play a role? It seems intuitive that unwanted people may pose more of a threat to society than wanted people.
 
2013-01-04 12:58:27 AM  
(E) The continuation of the trend from the '90s that's been basically perfectly consistent no matter how much or little we do in the way of additional initiatives?

//Well, organized crime's a bit down over the last 4 years or so because of the huge crackdown.
 
2013-01-04 01:08:29 AM  

fusillade762: D) Legalized abortion


That's a fun one, but realistically unprovable.  The data to prove it simply doesn't exist.  It may be a case of causation and correlation.

Keeping on the biological aspect, there's a chance it could be the increasing levels of estrogen in the water that is making us less violent.  That rise in estrogen is well documented, from chemicals and things like birth control pills.  The levels are high enough to cause deformations in some fish.
 
2013-01-04 01:10:13 AM  
Seems pretty damn obvious to me that leaded gasoline caused stupid people, who then turned to crime.

The other factors are legal abortion and the far lower expulsion rates: the fewer kids you kick out of school, the fewer criminals you have. But mostly, it's lead.
 
2013-01-04 01:10:18 AM  
I think it's just 'cause kids are just farkin' lazy nowadays

and too fat to get into any serious mischief besides
 
2013-01-04 01:12:19 AM  
The internet.
 
2013-01-04 01:18:12 AM  

GAT_00: Keeping on the biological aspect, there's a chance it could be the increasing levels of estrogen in the water that is making us less violent. That rise in estrogen is well documented, from chemicals and things like birth control pills. The levels are high enough to cause deformations in some fish.


Even if there is enough estrogen in the environment to have an effect on men, it isn't going to make them less violent, more like give them biatch tits and make them more emotional.
 
2013-01-04 01:20:25 AM  
It's all because Obama banned guns, just like the forwarded email suggested.
 
2013-01-04 01:24:47 AM  

lewismarktwo: The internet.


Yeah, internet porn is another big deterrent. Guys have oceans of videos at their fingertips, they jack off, eat a snack, and fall asleep. Not so many frustrated desires.
 
Esn
2013-01-04 01:25:06 AM  

Omahawg: I think it's just 'cause kids are just farkin' lazy nowadays

and too fat to get into any serious mischief besides


Yeah, that too:

Link

Laboratory research suggests long-term exposure to air pollution can lead to learning and memory problems and even depression.

In previous studies in mice, researchers found that fine air particulate matter causes widespread inflammation in the body, and can be linked to high blood pressure, diabetes and obesity.
 
2013-01-04 01:26:36 AM  

apachevoyeur: How can it not play a role? It seems intuitive that unwanted people may pose more of a threat to society than wanted people.


Gwyrddu: GAT_00: Keeping on the biological aspect, there's a chance it could be the increasing levels of estrogen in the water that is making us less violent. That rise in estrogen is well documented, from chemicals and things like birth control pills. The levels are high enough to cause deformations in some fish.

Even if there is enough estrogen in the environment to have an effect on men, it isn't going to make them less violent, more like give them biatch tits and make them more emotional.


The religious right also tells me the bible (which is a cannon of books, not a single tome as most xtians would lead you to believe) is real written word of some dude in the sky. So it's not a far fetched idea that more abortions produces less criminals.
 
2013-01-04 01:27:42 AM  
Voodoo? Is it voodoo?
 
2013-01-04 01:31:18 AM  

apachevoyeur: fusillade762: D) Legalized abortion

This was my first guess after reading Freakonomics. There were some problems with how Levitt came about this theory (Google Christopher Foote of Boston Fed), and he does concede programming errors, though he still argues that the impact of that error is minimal and that his theory is likely correct.

How can it not play a role? It seems intuitive that unwanted people may pose more of a threat to society than wanted people.


True, but after committing a crime, they become wanted.
 
2013-01-04 01:32:40 AM  

Jim_Callahan: (E) The continuation of the trend from the '90s that's been basically perfectly consistent no matter how much or little we do in the way of additional initiatives?

//Well, organized crime's a bit down over the last 4 years or so because of the huge crackdown.


Organized crime has dropped in the last four years mainly because the electorate has been voting blue in greater numbers.
 
2013-01-04 01:33:45 AM  

Kuoxasar: but crime has so many other factors associated with it


I really don't understand why so much of applied social science seems hell bent on reducing a problem to ONE variable, when it obviously can't be the case. I understand why journalists breathlessly report these stories, it's because their success is positively correlated with mental retardation.
 
2013-01-04 01:34:01 AM  
Re-posting from a redlit version of this thread:

J. R. McNeill, an environmental historian, has remarked that Thomas Midgley, Jr. "had more impact on the atmosphere than any other single organism in Earth's history."
 
2013-01-04 01:34:36 AM  

Ed Willy: Also, end the drug war and see the number of arrests go down.


FTFY.
 
2013-01-04 01:37:09 AM  

Britney Spear's Speculum: Pretty sure leaded gasoline is responsible for the Tea Party.


I thought that was leaded paint.
 
2013-01-04 01:45:35 AM  
The awb sunsetting and gun ownership rising
 
2013-01-04 01:53:48 AM  

Jim_Callahan: (E) The continuation of the trend from the '90s that's been basically perfectly consistent no matter how much or little we do in the way of additional initiatives?

//Well, organized crime's a bit down over the last 4 years or so because of the huge crackdown.


The US and Canada started phasing out leaded gasoline in the mid '70s, 20 years before Europe, and it was almost completely gone by the mid '90s. If leaded gasoline does indeed contribute to criminal behaviour, it makes sense that a significant decline on the crime rate in North American began in the '90s.
 
2013-01-04 01:58:10 AM  
That was interesting, but then I buy the increased temperature on increase in CO2 , but really believe that warming is due to more people in China. If you look at temperature vs population.......I see a trend. Both go higher.
Last poster nailed it. Gun ownership rising has caused global temperatures to rise.

/that's what we were talking about right?
//ok, maybe not.
///toothpaste from China has lead?
 
2013-01-04 01:59:00 AM  

TofuTheAlmighty: Instead of click-fellating the Daily Fail, here's a link to the original article. The evidence really is compelling.


Thanks for posting that. Interesting read.
 
2013-01-04 02:00:16 AM  
The aging of the Boomers is making us a statistically old society - and old people don't do much crime. Crime is dropping in ALL the aging societies in the West. But it ends soon.
Enjoy it while you can.
 
2013-01-04 02:04:17 AM  

TofuTheAlmighty: Instead of click-fellating the Daily Fail, here's a link to the original article. The evidence really is compelling.


Thanks for sharing that link. I agree; very compelling.
 
2013-01-04 02:06:22 AM  
Immigants, even when it was the unleaded gasoline, I knew it was them immigants.
 
2013-01-04 02:08:24 AM  
i.dailymail.co.uk

Looking at the graph, a change in the trend of lead concentration happens after a change in the trend of crime rate more often than not. The scientists are idiots, it's the crime rate that causes the drop in lead concentration.
 
2013-01-04 02:13:17 AM  

Doom MD: The awb sunsetting and gun ownership rising


i18.photobucket.com
 
2013-01-04 02:14:26 AM  

jso2897: The aging of the Boomers is making us a statistically old society - and old people don't do much crime. Crime is dropping in ALL the aging societies in the West. But it ends soon.
Enjoy it while you can.


On the other hand, old people are easier to rob. Enjoy it while you can!
 
2013-01-04 02:30:08 AM  
Correlation != Causation, Daily FAIL. Also a sample size of six cities? Too small.
 
2013-01-04 02:31:12 AM  
Of course, more people have been flying Southwest in the 2000's too. Clearly flying Southwest Airlines causes crime rates to fall!
 
2013-01-04 02:31:50 AM  

mrbach: That was interesting, but then I buy the increased temperature on increase in CO2 , but really believe that warming is due to more people in China. If you look at temperature vs population.......I see a trend. Both go higher.
Last poster nailed it. Gun ownership rising has caused global temperatures to rise.

/that's what we were talking about right?
//ok, maybe not.
///toothpaste from China has lead?


Really?!? It's been proven many times that it's because of pirates

www.venganza.org

/yes, It's as hot as tomorrow's temperature. Can you post about pirates wthout stolen pics?
 
2013-01-04 02:35:59 AM  

apachevoyeur: fusillade762: D) Legalized abortion

This was my first guess after reading Freakonomics. There were some problems with how Levitt came about this theory (Google Christopher Foote of Boston Fed), and he does concede programming errors, though he still argues that the impact of that error is minimal and that his theory is likely correct.

How can it not play a role? It seems intuitive that unwanted people may pose more of a threat to society than wanted people.


yeah that is a compelling idea

but if there is one thing we shd have learned from 2012 it's that Nate Silver beats Scott Rasmussen.

so for now l'm skeptical of 'intuition' even when it fits my preconceptions
 
2013-01-04 02:41:54 AM  

Esn: Although I can see why free will advocates would be outraged and attempt to discredit this.


Free will advocates?

I take it you believe your life is predetermined?
 
2013-01-04 02:42:11 AM  

traylor: it's the crime rate that causes the drop in lead concentration.


Intriguingly, violent crime rates followed the same upside-down U pattern. The only thing different was the time period: Crime rates rose dramatically in the '60s through the '80s, and then began dropping steadily starting in the early '90s. The two curves looked eerily identical, but were offset by about 20 years.

From the original article.
 
2013-01-04 02:45:42 AM  
extranosalley.com

Michigan Homicides peaked around '87.

My Little Pony'n Friends began running in syndication in '87.

QED My Little Pony is responsible for the global drop in crime.

Thank you. Where's my nobel prize in applied economics.
 
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