mbillips: To be fair, if Iran wanted to do a first strike, they could use their three Kilo-class diesel-electric boats (which aren't toys) to lay mines in the Strait, and we wouldn't be able to detect it until the first one blew up. Then it was take us upwards of a month to clear those mines; first we'd have to take out their surface-to-surface missiles and artillery so that minesweepers could operate in the Strait.Iran would lose most of its military in the ensuring air-to-ground campaign, but you'd be talking about a MAJOR oil shock worldwide. So they have cards to play, if they're feeling suicidal.
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