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(MIT Technology Review)   How the Obama campaign used data mining to win the election, vote by vote, in a fashion almost completely invisible to old white guys   (technologyreview.com) divider line 45
    More: Interesting, President Obama, obama, Obama campaign, midterm elections, Massachusetts Senate, web standards, democratic coalition, statistical model  
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2658 clicks; posted to Politics » on 20 Dec 2012 at 6:03 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-12-20 06:06:06 PM
I will tell you...I am ultra liberal and was actually surprised that Obama won. I thought that the spirit was gone. That minorities would stay home disenfranchised. That Jill Stein had that special glow.

I was surprised that people came out and voted. And waited in line to do so.
 
2012-12-20 06:06:21 PM
And I bet the GOP tries the same thing in 2016, overpays for it, and it under performs for them.

Kinda like ORCA.
 
2012-12-20 06:07:17 PM
Party of Personal Responsibility: STILL looking for any reason that isn't "We Ran the Wrong Guy in the Worst Way"
 
2012-12-20 06:07:50 PM
Here in Oklahoma where Obama didn't win a single of our 77 counties,

I can count to potatoe
 
2012-12-20 06:07:58 PM

theteacher: I was surprised that people came out and voted. And waited in line to do so.


The Republicans are working on that.
 
2012-12-20 06:08:09 PM
Subby, Karl Rove had Ohio fixed and he was on national television waiting for the vote switching to kick in. It never happened. That doesn't mean Turdblossom didn't have it all set up. It just didn't work. Heh heh heh.
 
2012-12-20 06:08:54 PM
I'd say it was because America rejected Romney's ideas and proposals, but I don't recall him actually presenting any. Any that he stuck to for any length of time. .
 
2012-12-20 06:10:38 PM

Boudica's War Tampon: Subby, Karl Rove had Ohio fixed and he was on national television waiting for the vote switching to kick in. It never happened. That doesn't mean Turdblossom didn't have it all set up. It just didn't work. Heh heh heh.



25.media.tumblr.com
 
2012-12-20 06:12:21 PM

theteacher: I will tell you...I am ultra liberal and was actually surprised that Obama won. I thought that the spirit was gone. That minorities would stay home disenfranchised. That Jill Stein had that special glow.

I was surprised that people came out and voted. And waited in line to do so.


The GOP went out of its way to condescend to, denigrate, and disenfranchise everyone who's not an affluent white male. Personal revulsion against the GOP was quite an impetus for voting this year.(Revulsion against Obama's melanin quantity drove much of the vote favoring Romney.)
 
2012-12-20 06:13:19 PM

born_yesterday: I'd say it was because America rejected Romney's ideas and proposals, but I don't recall him actually presenting any. Any that he stuck to for any length of time. .


I'd say it was because the President's campaigning was far far far far better than than the fools Rmoney had running his. Part of being a great leader is knowing where your best talent is and using it wisely.

Romney failed because he has never had to become a great leader. The game was always rigged in his favor. Always.
 
2012-12-20 06:13:26 PM
the GOPs worst nightmare is occurring and they are desperate. The poor and minorities are voting.
 
2012-12-20 06:14:31 PM
Dan Wagner worked for me in Iowa during the caucuses so I'm getting a kick out of these replies...
 
2012-12-20 06:16:59 PM

wotthefark: born_yesterday: I'd say it was because America rejected Romney's ideas and proposals, but I don't recall him actually presenting any. Any that he stuck to for any length of time. .

I'd say it was because the President's campaigning was far far far far better than than the fools Rmoney had running his. Part of being a great leader is knowing where your best talent is and using it wisely.

Romney failed because he has never had to become a great leader. The game was always rigged in his favor. Always.


Snark aside, I agree. Someone (Weaver?) commented that the software used to find and follow up with potential voters was exceptionally well done, and very user-friendly. That's just one example, maybe they'll provide more.
 
2012-12-20 06:23:29 PM

wotthefark: born_yesterday: I'd say it was because America rejected Romney's ideas and proposals, but I don't recall him actually presenting any. Any that he stuck to for any length of time. .

I'd say it was because the President's campaigning was far far far far better than than the fools Rmoney had running his. Part of being a great leader is knowing where your best talent is and using it wisely.

Romney failed because he has never had to become a great leader. The game was always rigged in his favor. Always.


Born on third, thinks he hit a homer, and expects to be allowed to walk all the way to home plate without any interference. That's Romney in a nutshell.
 
2012-12-20 06:29:40 PM
I'm not done but one thing i find interesting was their "re-shock the system" to bring up issues after they had started to fade. I think that was probably not a good idea, because it made them look like they were grasping to force something to become a scandal. My mother is fairly independent politically and that was one thing she mentioned several times in relation to romney- that he kept bringing up stuff that was already "put to bed" if you will and she thought it was foolish.
 
2012-12-20 06:31:38 PM
The secret of Mr. Obama is that he isn't really very good at politics, and he isn't good at politics because he doesn't really get people. The other day a Republican political veteran forwarded me a hiring notice from the Obama 2012 campaign. It read like politics as done by Martians. The "Analytics Department" is looking for "predictive Modeling/Data Mining" specialists to join the campaign's "multi-disciplinary team of statisticians," which will use "predictive modeling" to anticipate the behavior of the electorate. "We will analyze millions of interactions a day, learning from terabytes of historical data, running thousands of experiments, to inform campaign strategy and critical decisions." 
 
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/13/1161327/-Peggy-Noonan-mocke d- data-nerds-who-won-the-presidency
 
2012-12-20 06:32:05 PM
Bullsh*t, Rmoney didn't even want to win. it was an investment strategy for him.

It'd have been a wet dream of his if he'd actually won.
He was intentionally offensive and covertly racist.

You don't think he actually sticks his dick in that f*cking horse any more that he married that won zero golds in the olympics, do you?
/up next for POTUS: the old, white politician who termed 'drug czar' for federal employment...
 
2012-12-20 06:33:09 PM
(that shiat offended me in 2nd grade when I first heard it in social studies)
 
2012-12-20 06:38:13 PM
images.politico.com

"The way out? That's two rights, a left and a pump"


i2.cdn.turner.com

"Huh?


aintnogod.com
/never gets old
 
2012-12-20 07:04:56 PM

impaler: The secret of Mr. Obama is that he isn't really very good at politics, and he isn't good at politics because he doesn't really get people. The other day a Republican political veteran forwarded me a hiring notice from the Obama 2012 campaign. It read like politics as done by Martians. The "Analytics Department" is looking for "predictive Modeling/Data Mining" specialists to join the campaign's "multi-disciplinary team of statisticians," which will use "predictive modeling" to anticipate the behavior of the electorate. "We will analyze millions of interactions a day, learning from terabytes of historical data, running thousands of experiments, to inform campaign strategy and critical decisions."

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/13/1161327/-Peggy-Noonan-mocke d- data-nerds-who-won-the-presidency


If I were a Democrat, I would prefer that she were right then wrong.
Because she IS wrong, and hiring Obama to deal with a fiscal crisis is like hiring a car salesman to reassemble your tranmission: he can talk a good game, get your vote, and stand his ground, but he doesn't he doesn't know shiat from chocaolate mousse, and it doesn't matter how many quants he hires to win himself elections, its not going to magically turn him into a leader.
 
2012-12-20 07:08:04 PM
FTFA Obama's campaign began the election year confident it knew the name of every one of the 69,456,897 Americans whose votes had put him in the White House. They may have cast those votes by secret ballot, but Obama's analysts could look at the Democrats' vote totals in each precinct and identify the people most likely to have backed him.

Let's hope we don't become a fascist state anytime soon.

/ Though I'd be on one of the early kill lists either way
 
2012-12-20 07:15:50 PM

Animatronik: impaler: The secret of Mr. Obama is that he isn't really very good at politics, and he isn't good at politics because he doesn't really get people. The other day a Republican political veteran forwarded me a hiring notice from the Obama 2012 campaign. It read like politics as done by Martians. The "Analytics Department" is looking for "predictive Modeling/Data Mining" specialists to join the campaign's "multi-disciplinary team of statisticians," which will use "predictive modeling" to anticipate the behavior of the electorate. "We will analyze millions of interactions a day, learning from terabytes of historical data, running thousands of experiments, to inform campaign strategy and critical decisions."

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/13/1161327/-Peggy-Noonan-mocke d- data-nerds-who-won-the-presidency

If I were a Democrat, I would prefer that she were right then wrong.
Because she IS wrong, and hiring Obama to deal with a fiscal crisis is like hiring a car salesman to reassemble your tranmission: he can talk a good game, get your vote, and stand his ground, but he doesn't he doesn't know shiat from chocaolate mousse, and it doesn't matter how many quants he hires to win himself elections, its not going to magically turn him into a leader.


I'm afraid you're right. At no point is he ever going to turn white, I'm afraid.

Continue to cower and tremble in your corner, old fart.
 
2012-12-20 07:21:14 PM
Fascinating as this is, it ignores one critical point:

It doesn't matter how good your Get Out The Vote effort is if the votes aren't there for you to begin with.

The way Republicans and their apologists talk about this election, it's as if they believe that voters are manufactured rather than persuaded.
 
2012-12-20 07:43:14 PM

Hobodeluxe: the GOPs worst nightmare is occurring and they are desperate. The poor and minorities are voting.


This.
 
2012-12-20 07:46:31 PM

czetie: Fascinating as this is, it ignores one critical point:

It doesn't matter how good your Get Out The Vote effort is if the votes aren't there for you to begin with.

The way Republicans and their apologists talk about this election, it's as if they believe that voters are manufactured rather than persuaded.


You may have just stumbled upon a great truth there about the GOP.
 
2012-12-20 07:47:51 PM
Peachy. Obama won a national election by turning it into local politics.

Now, about financing and using those assets and techniques on 2014 House and Senate elections? Turning local politics into a national effort rather than the roughly 460-470 fragmented little struggles that Democrats usually dissolve into?
 
2012-12-20 07:53:39 PM
Long article.  Allow me to summarize: the smart guy won.
 
2012-12-20 08:34:58 PM
Obama won because of the media covering his rear for 4 years and if you think otherwise you're a fool
 
2012-12-20 08:48:08 PM
he looks fairly white.
 
2012-12-20 08:59:58 PM
The sweet, sweet irony is that this approach was developed long ago by the man Karl Rove considers to be his mentor.
 
2012-12-20 09:12:26 PM

ObamaTheOmnipotent: /never gets old


aintnogod.com

sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net
sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net

/mittens doesn't care about non-mormon people anyone but himself.jpg
 
2012-12-20 09:26:37 PM

TofuTheAlmighty: The GOP went out of its way to condescend to, denigrate, and disenfranchise everyone who's not an affluent white male. Personal revulsion against the GOP was quite an impetus for voting this year.(Revulsion against Obama's melanin quantity drove much of the vote favoring Romney.)


This.  I have a lot of friends and family who were planning all year to vote 3rd party and ultimately voted Obama.  Almost unanimously, it was because they felt that Romney was singularly terrible or that the GOP's assholishness was just too much to ignore.
 
2012-12-20 09:36:21 PM

wotthefark: born_yesterday: I'd say it was because America rejected Romney's ideas and proposals, but I don't recall him actually presenting any. Any that he stuck to for any length of time. .

I'd say it was because the President's campaigning was far far far far better than than the fools Rmoney had running his. Part of being a great leader is knowing where your best talent is and using it wisely.

Romney failed because he has never had to become a great leader. The game was always rigged in his favor. Always.


While I agree with the above, I'd say it mattered more if the election had been a real blowout for Obama. I mean, Romney was a failure at everything he's done since being in Bain, and even that story has a big dark cloud with it about his morals and motivations. I was surprised he wasn't buried by his own party as traditional R's would say, "this guy's no good" and the religious types could balk at "omg, a Mormon and a moron! no way!" but that didn't happen.

The article highlights something interesting, in that social media technology and the new media advertising world really do matter. That stuff is still undervalued (you can get about 5000 emails for an inch in a print ad to the same demographic market... except you can see if anyone actually reads the emails). So the old politics said, "OMG Romney outspending Obama" and that no longer matters like it used to. That is interesting, and a good thing!
 
2012-12-20 09:42:27 PM

BSABSVR: This. I have a lot of friends and family who were planning all year to vote 3rd party and ultimately voted Obama. Almost unanimously, it was because they felt that Romney was singularly terrible or that the GOP's assholishness was just too much to ignore.


I was leaning 3rd party til i realized -- this is a 'do-over' from 50 years ago -- not to restate history but they throw a puppet in top office -- look at his handler, joe {i coined 'drug czar'} biden, RMONEY'S state, Utah, MORMONs, first anywhere to outlaw weed -- drug cartels are competing for top office in the U.S.

/i don't want to hear your opinion so just save it
 
2012-12-20 09:45:46 PM
FTA: Since his first campaign for governor of Massachusetts, in 2002, Romney had relied upon TargetPoint Consulting, a Virginia firm that was then a pioneer in linking information from consumer data warehouses to voter registration records and using it to develop individual-level predictive models. It was TargetPoint's CEO, Alexander Gage, who had coined the term "microtargeting" to describe the process, which he modeled on the corporate world's approach to customer relationship management.

Such techniques had offered George W. Bush's reëlection campaign a significant edge in targeting, but Republicans had done little to institutionalize that advantage in the years since. By 2006, Democrats had not only matched Republicans in adopting commercial marketing techniques; they had moved ahead by integrating methods developed in the social sciences.

Romney's advisors knew that Obama was building innovative internal data analytics departments, but they didn't feel a need to match those activities. "I don't think we thought, relative to the marketplace, we could be the best at data in-house all the time," Romney's digital director, Zac Moffatt, said in July. "Our idea is to find the best firms to work with us." As a result, Romney remained dependent on TargetPoint to develop voter segments, often just once, and then deliver them to the campaign's databases. That was the structure Obama had abandoned after winning the nomination in 2008.
.
.
.
Romney's political department began holding regular meetings to look at where in the country the Obama campaign was focusing resources like ad dollars and the president's time. The goal was to try to divine the calculations behind those decisions. It was, in essence, the way Microsoft's Bing approached Google: trying to reverse-engineer the market leader's code by studying the visible output. "We watch where the president goes," Dan Centinello, the Romney deputy political director who oversaw the meetings, said over the summer.

Obama's media-buying strategy proved particularly hard to decipher... Romney's advisors might have formed a theory about the broader media environment, but whatever was sending Obama hunting for a small pocket of votes was beyond their measurement. "We could tell," says McGoldrick, "that there was something in the algorithms that was telling them what to run."


"Math is hard. We don't have in-house expertise, but no worries. We'll just outsource the data collection. And we can just copy their ad buys, which will enable us to counteract them without having to go through the trouble and expense of creating our own analytics. Hell, it works every day on Wall Street. That's the problem with those libtard nerds - too much book smarts, not enough street smarts."
 
2012-12-20 09:51:36 PM
sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net

sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net

GIS obama one finger salute -- he gives tons of press time

/f*ck whitey.jpg i'm native f*cking american
//whitey hides behind the laws whitey writes
 
2012-12-20 10:10:21 PM

urban.derelict: BSABSVR: This. I have a lot of friends and family who were planning all year to vote 3rd party and ultimately voted Obama. Almost unanimously, it was because they felt that Romney was singularly terrible or that the GOP's assholishness was just too much to ignore.

I was leaning 3rd party til i realized -- this is a 'do-over' from 50 years ago -- not to restate history but they throw a puppet in top office -- look at his handler, joe {i coined 'drug czar'} biden, RMONEY'S state, Utah, MORMONs, first anywhere to outlaw weed -- drug cartels are competing for top office in the U.S.

/i don't want to hear your opinion so just save it


Fark you, you farking brain injury mutant.  You should kill yourself and make the world a better place.


/How's that for an opinion?
 
2012-12-20 11:13:59 PM

Empty Matchbook: Party of Personal Responsibility: STILL looking for any reason that isn't "We Ran the Wrong Guy in the Worst Way"


The Democrats won because people liked their message better and they got it across to more people.
The Republicans lost because people didn't like their message and their satellite candidates couldn't stop saying "Rape is good" out loud in public two weeks before the election.

Believe it or not, that matters.
 
2012-12-21 12:41:42 AM

urban.derelict: BSABSVR: This. I have a lot of friends and family who were planning all year to vote 3rd party and ultimately voted Obama. Almost unanimously, it was because they felt that Romney was singularly terrible or that the GOP's assholishness was just too much to ignore.

I was leaning 3rd party til i realized -- this is a 'do-over' from 50 years ago -- not to restate history but they throw a puppet in top office -- look at his handler, joe {i coined 'drug czar'} biden, RMONEY'S state, Utah, MORMONs, first anywhere to outlaw weed -- drug cartels are competing for top office in the U.S.

/i don't want to hear your opinion so just save it


wow, I think your tin foil is on a liiiiitle tight
 
Esn
2012-12-21 02:13:55 AM

randomjsa: Obama won because of the media covering his rear for 4 years and if you think otherwise you're a fool


This is true.

But here's the thing: the media covers the rears of ALL the elites. They have to because they're part of the system. You just have blinders on when it comes to your own candidate so you can't see it when the exact same thing happens.

Both sides believe that the media is biased in favour of the other candidate; what that tells me is that both sides are right.
 
Esn
2012-12-21 02:17:46 AM
By the way, this article was extremely interesting. Thanks, subby.

czetie: Fascinating as this is, it ignores one critical point:

It doesn't matter how good your Get Out The Vote effort is if the votes aren't there for you to begin with.

The way Republicans and their apologists talk about this election, it's as if they believe that voters are manufactured rather than persuaded.


Well, they kind of are. Obama won because of changing demographics, which are partly due to immigration and partly to higher birthrates among minorities.
 
2012-12-21 07:10:26 AM

Esn: Obama won because of changing demographics, which are partly due to immigration and partly to higher birthrates among minorities.


And if the Republican party actually stood for any of the things it claims to stand for, it would win a much larger share of the immigrant/first generation vote, rather than making itself an untouchable pariah to the majority of that demographic.

/Immigrant.
 
2012-12-21 11:05:42 AM
Science...

You can pretend it don't exist/matter, or you can use it effectively to your advantage.

/article summary
 
2012-12-22 12:18:59 AM

Esn: Both sides believe that the media is biased in favour of the other candidate; what that tells me is that both sides are right.


If you entirely disregard facts, this is a good point.
 
Esn
2012-12-22 03:35:59 AM

Empty Matchbook: Esn: Both sides believe that the media is biased in favour of the other candidate; what that tells me is that both sides are right.

If you entirely disregard facts, this is a good point.


Look, don't expect me to believe that a media landscape owned by just a few corporations is going to hold powerful people's feet to the fire. The only ones who have both the will and the resources to do that are foreign-financed news companies. Which means RT and al Jazeera I guess, if we're talking about television. (I like RT, personally)
 
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