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(Des Moines Register)   279 days without snow means that Des Moines has shattered a snowless record set in 1889. Thanks, global warming   (blogs.desmoinesregister.com) divider line 162
    More: Scary, Des Moines, global warming, cold fronts, snow, National Weather Service  
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3339 clicks; posted to Main » on 08 Dec 2012 at 6:59 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-12-08 03:42:36 PM
Warm and dry, the midwest is suffering the apocalypse of boredom.
 
2012-12-08 03:51:57 PM

Sgygus: Warm and dry, the midwest is suffering the apocalypse of boredom.



So ... business as usual?
 
2012-12-08 04:02:13 PM
279 days? That's not even close to a record. Des Moines has had streaks of no snow that lasted hundreds of thousands of years.
 
2012-12-08 05:07:21 PM
And it's 82 in houston in mid-december. For the fifth day in a row. So, good news is, being in the energy business, I'd like to thank everyone for cranking that AC up today. Bad news, yeah, I think we've broken the planet.
 
2012-12-08 05:36:28 PM
YES IT'S A CYCLE

BUT IT'S A MILLION-YEAR CYCLE

THE COLD SWING ENDED 50,000 YEARS AGO

IT'S NOT SUPPOSED TO BE THIS HOT FOR ANOTHER 200,000 YEARS
 
2012-12-08 06:14:29 PM
That's EXACTLY how global warming works!
 
2012-12-08 06:50:40 PM

Mugato: That's EXACTLY how global warming works!


Two records over a hundred years apart?

/I keed!
 
2012-12-08 06:57:42 PM
Weather or not this is Global warming -is hard to say.
 
2012-12-08 06:59:53 PM
West coast is fairly normal. Rain up north, less rain in the south, temps more or less where they belong. Glaciers are all melting, but hey who cares about that.
 
2012-12-08 07:00:30 PM

Lsherm: Two records over a hundred years apart?


Wait...what does this have to do with Gun and Roses?
 
2012-12-08 07:03:49 PM

DrPainMD: 279 days? That's not even close to a record. Des Moines has had streaks of no snow that lasted hundreds of thousands of years.


0/10
 
2012-12-08 07:04:36 PM
www.sxc.hu
but, but...3 inches of global warming will fall on my yard tonight!
 
2012-12-08 07:04:47 PM
Scary? Really?
 
2012-12-08 07:05:22 PM

Because People in power are Stupid: Weather or not


I'm not sure if I see what you did there.
 
2012-12-08 07:06:07 PM

kingoomieiii: YES IT'S A CYCLE

BUT IT'S A MILLION-YEAR CYCLE

THE COLD SWING ENDED 50,000 YEARS AGO

IT'S NOT SUPPOSED TO BE THIS HOT FOR ANOTHER 200,000 YEARS


*cough* little ice age *cough* *cough*
 
2012-12-08 07:06:16 PM
Ned Stark lied.

Winter ISN'T coming.

And Jon Snow isn't his kid.

Lying SOB.
 
2012-12-08 07:06:45 PM

Krieghund: Lsherm: Two records over a hundred years apart?

Wait...what does this have to do with Gun and Roses?


Fat Axl looks like he could produce enough methane to cause global warming...
 
2012-12-08 07:06:56 PM
I live in Tennessee. It's December 8th, we have all the windows open, and I'm STILL sweating like a pig. Just my observation
 
2012-12-08 07:07:44 PM
As a southern Minnesotian... Im ok with this
 
2012-12-08 07:07:55 PM
inb4 shiatty charts and graphs no one ever reads or cares about
 
2012-12-08 07:08:57 PM
Here_we_go_again.jpg
 
2012-12-08 07:14:03 PM
Where I am, it's -22C with a windchill of -27C.
Translation for the Americans: it's -7.6F with a windchill of -16.6F.
I would welcome ANY warming right about now ;)
 
2012-12-08 07:14:36 PM
What caused the lack of snow in 1889?
 
2012-12-08 07:15:37 PM

styckx: inb4 shiatty charts and graphs no one ever reads or cares about


What about shiatty venn-diagrams? Does anyone care about those?

/ RELEASE TEH CHARTS!!!!
 
2012-12-08 07:15:55 PM

RockChalkH1N1: As a southern Minnesotian... Im ok with this


As a former Northern Wisconsinite... I'm OK with this, as well (even if it does seem strange to not be walking through 4-ft snowdrifts to get to the mailbox by this time of the year).
 
2012-12-08 07:16:30 PM

RockChalkH1N1: As a southern Minnesotian... Im ok with this


Pfft, no true Minnesotan is thankful for warmer days. True Minnesotans have icewater in our veins and thrive in subzero temperatures.
 
2012-12-08 07:16:58 PM
Ah, 1889. The new Eiffel Tower, Benjamin Harrison and a proud 42 US States. Good times, good times...
 
2012-12-08 07:17:30 PM
Mega Steve:
I live in Tennessee. It's December 8th, we have all the windows open, and I'm STILL sweating like a pig. Just my observation


Pigs can't sweat.
 
2012-12-08 07:18:20 PM
"279 days without snow means that Des Moines has shattered a snowless record set in 1889. Thanks, global warming"

Whow!! I never knew Des Moines was feeling the effects of Global Warming in 1889!!
 
2012-12-08 07:18:24 PM
Too much snow? Global warming.

Not enough snow? Global warming.
 
2012-12-08 07:19:04 PM

LisaNeedsBraces: Where I am, it's -22C with a windchill of -27C.
Translation for the Americans: it's -7.6F with a windchill of -16.6F.
I would welcome ANY warming right about now ;)


MAN UP! Back in my youth, I'd have called that a heat wave for December (I remember going to school one day when the temp was -35F, and the wind chill was -53F, and this was in Wisconsin, NOT Alaska)!
 
2012-12-08 07:20:24 PM

MisterTweak: And it's 82 in houston in mid-december. For the fifth day in a row. So, good news is, being in the energy business, I'd like to thank everyone for cranking that AC up today. Bad news, yeah, I think we've broken the planet.


That's what they want you to think....


Sarcasm missed I think and will be missed by most
 
2012-12-08 07:22:05 PM
Chicken Little needs to make up his mind. Either we're having more weather, because of increased heat energy in the atmosphere, (which makes a hella lotta sense,) or we're having less weather because of increased heat energy in the atmosphere.
 
2012-12-08 07:23:48 PM

WhippingBoy: What caused the lack of snow in 1889?



Global warning's dressed rehearsal?

That and all the SUVs running around 125 years ago that the current history books seem to ignore.
 
2012-12-08 07:24:01 PM
I don't think I've been getting the email update memos.
So we DO use "Global Warming" when we're talking about it being warmer or no snow, but we're supposed to say "Climate Change" when it's colder and there's more snow than usual? Are those the latest talking point guidelines?
 
2012-12-08 07:24:26 PM
2/10

/trolls to the left of me, derpers to the right...
 
2012-12-08 07:25:19 PM

common sense is an oxymoron: 2/10

/trolls to the left of me, derpers to the right...


Here you are, stuck in the middle with us?
 
2012-12-08 07:25:52 PM

WhippingBoy: What caused the lack of snow in 1889?


A very strong El Niño effect that year, probably also bolstered by other thermal oscillations.
 
2012-12-08 07:26:43 PM

ClavellBCMI: LisaNeedsBraces: Where I am, it's -22C with a windchill of -27C.
Translation for the Americans: it's -7.6F with a windchill of -16.6F.
I would welcome ANY warming right about now ;)

MAN UP! Back in my youth, I'd have called that a heat wave for December (I remember going to school one day when the temp was -35F, and the wind chill was -53F, and this was in Wisconsin, NOT Alaska)!


I'm from Alberta, Canada - and agreed, this is NOTHING yet...usually January & February are the worst. I guess I'll complain then :)
 
2012-12-08 07:26:44 PM

ClavellBCMI: common sense is an oxymoron: 2/10

/trolls to the left of me, derpers to the right...

Here you are, stuck in the middle a Fark thread with us?

 
2012-12-08 07:28:33 PM
The farmers have been struggling, but everyone else is enjoying the weather.
 
2012-12-08 07:29:06 PM

ClavellBCMI: common sense is an oxymoron: 2/10

/trolls to the left of me, derpers to the right...

Here you are, stuck in the middle with us?


Torture you? That's a good idea. I like that.
 
2012-12-08 07:30:29 PM
http://www.pnas.org/content/101/12/4136.long

AMO and PDO: How do they work?

Blame global warming and then call someone a denier. LOL the irony
 
2012-12-08 07:31:30 PM
I live for cold weather and snow. Wtf? The weather is broken and now i have nothing to look forward to in life. I need to move to a pole.
 
2012-12-08 07:37:02 PM

fusillade762: ClavellBCMI: common sense is an oxymoron: 2/10

/trolls to the left of me, derpers to the right...

Here you are, stuck in the middle with us?

Torture you? That's a good idea. I like that.


Just stick to the five basic torture groups, and I'll be fine (hot, cold, sharp, blunt, and loud).
 
2012-12-08 07:37:43 PM

stirfrybry: http://www.pnas.org/content/101/12/4136.long

AMO and PDO: How do they work?

Blame global warming and then call someone a denier. LOL the irony


Except right now the PDO is not in a warming phase - it just ended a cooling phase, with no warming phase in sight for this year.
 
2012-12-08 07:38:05 PM

EmmaLou: I live for cold weather and snow.


For winter sports? I like snow for them, but hate actually living in it. That's why I don't mind the rain in Seattle when the Cascades are only just over there *points to the east*.
 
2012-12-08 07:41:50 PM

kingoomieiii: YES IT'S A CYCLE

BUT IT'S A MILLION-YEAR CYCLE

THE COLD SWING ENDED 50,000 YEARS AGO

IT'S NOT SUPPOSED TO BE THIS HOT FOR ANOTHER 200,000 YEARS


and cows fart. and because of this, the mcrib and yoga mats are destroying mankind
 
2012-12-08 07:44:59 PM

letrole: Mega Steve:
I live in Tennessee. It's December 8th, we have all the windows open, and I'm STILL sweating like a pig. Just my observation


Pigs can't sweat.


animals sweat (those which can). people perspire.
 
2012-12-08 07:45:12 PM

letrole: Mega Steve:
I live in Tennessee. It's December 8th, we have all the windows open, and I'm STILL sweating like a pig. Just my observation


Pigs can't sweat.


I laughed so hard I forgot to troll the thread.
 
2012-12-08 07:46:35 PM

Mugato: That's EXACTLY how global warming works!


Yes, I'm beginning to see the trend

i1057.photobucket.com
 
2012-12-08 07:48:39 PM
jonova.s3.amazonaws.com
 
2012-12-08 07:48:42 PM

Baryogenesis: DrPainMD: 279 days? That's not even close to a record. Des Moines has had streaks of no snow that lasted hundreds of thousands of years.

0/10


0/10 for being true.
 
2012-12-08 07:50:48 PM
Tampa FL just reached its highest high of this and last century but that's how global warming works. I guess.
 
2012-12-08 07:52:37 PM
So.
What was happening in 1889?
Global warming?
 
2012-12-08 07:53:30 PM

WhippingBoy: What caused the lack of snow in 1889?


Krakatoa
 
2012-12-08 07:55:01 PM
Not this derp again.
 
2012-12-08 07:59:35 PM

QT_3.14159: WhippingBoy: What caused the lack of snow in 1889?

Krakatoa


6 years too late, my friend.
 
2012-12-08 08:02:28 PM

ClavellBCMI: QT_3.14159: WhippingBoy: What caused the lack of snow in 1889?

Krakatoa

6 years too late, my friend.


No. First the gases released cause some minor warming in year 1, then in years 2 - 4 it's colder and wetter than normal because of all the ash in the atmosphere. Then as the atmosphere rebalances it dries out and causes 2 warmer and drier years. Duh.
 
2012-12-08 08:02:40 PM

DesertDemonWY: Mugato: That's EXACTLY how global warming works!

Yes, I'm beginning to see the trend

[i1057.photobucket.com image 850x637]


lol, 2005-2012

For those who don't know, 2005 is the warmest year on record so starting a graph there will show flat or declining warming trend. Deniers love cherry picking.
 
2012-12-08 08:06:30 PM

Mugato: Tampa FL just reached its highest high of this and last century but that's how global warming works. I guess.


TAMPA RULEZ!!
 
2012-12-08 08:07:00 PM

Baryogenesis: DesertDemonWY: Mugato: That's EXACTLY how global warming works!

Yes, I'm beginning to see the trend

[i1057.photobucket.com image 850x637]

lol, 2005-2012

For those who don't know, 2005 is the warmest year on record so starting a graph there will show flat or declining warming trend. Deniers love cherry picking.


No, it wasn't. 1998 is claimed to be the warmest

i1057.photobucket.com
 
2012-12-08 08:08:25 PM

Baryogenesis: DrPainMD: 279 days? That's not even close to a record. Des Moines has had streaks of no snow that lasted hundreds of thousands of years.

0/10


Everywhere on earth has had wet spells and dry spells, cold times and warm times - if you look back far enough. The world appears to be warming a bit during the present period. It might be from man-made causes, but other factors should also be investigated. And should the planet actually go up or down a couple degrees in this century, it will certainly have consequences, both good and bad. Whatever happens, mankind will do what it always does... deal with it.

Many are easily frightened, believing that warming will have mostly negative consequences. They may be right, but temperature fluctuations tend to include benefits. We will survive it, and we will adjust. That's how we roll. Cooling will have greater consequences, for we will lose habitable areas and croplands will be greatly diminished. Cooling equals famine. Cooling equals FLorida becoming less muggy. Goes both ways.
 
2012-12-08 08:08:36 PM

DesertDemonWY: i1057.photobucket.com


i.imgur.com

Not that it will change your mind.

Baryogenesis: For those who don't know, 2005 is the warmest year on record so starting a graph there will show flat or declining warming trend. Deniers love cherry picking.


Plus, that.
 
2012-12-08 08:10:00 PM

EVERYBODY PANIC: ...but other factors should also be investigated.


JHFCOAPS, you think they aren't?

/why do I even bother?
 
2012-12-08 08:13:30 PM

DesertDemonWY: Baryogenesis: DesertDemonWY: Mugato: That's EXACTLY how global warming works!

Yes, I'm beginning to see the trend

[i1057.photobucket.com image 850x637]

lol, 2005-2012

For those who don't know, 2005 is the warmest year on record so starting a graph there will show flat or declining warming trend. Deniers love cherry picking.

No, it wasn't. 1998 is claimed to be the warmest

[i1057.photobucket.com image 600x350]


It depends on the temp. record used.

Of the three surface temperature records (HadCRUT3, NASA GISS, and NCDC), only HadCRUT3 actually shows 1998 as the hottest year on record. For NASA GISS and NCDC, the hottest year on record is 2005 

And if you had the graph from 1980-2012 why did you use the cherry picked one before?
 
2012-12-08 08:17:33 PM

fatassbastard: DesertDemonWY: i1057.photobucket.com

[i.imgur.com image 500x341]

Not that it will change your mind.

Baryogenesis: For those who don't know, 2005 is the warmest year on record so starting a graph there will show flat or declining warming trend. Deniers love cherry picking.

Plus, that.


Measured warming rate, 1997-2012 0.0 Cº/century
Measured warming rate, 1952-2012 1.2 Cº/century
Measured warming rate, 1990-2012 1.4 Cº/century
Measured warming rate, 1860-1880 1.7 Cº/century
Measured warming rate, 1910-1940 1.7 Cº/century
Measured warming rate, 1976-2001 1.7 Cº/century
Predicted warming rate in IPCC (1990), 1990-2025 3.0 Cº/century
Predicted warming rate in IPCC (2007), 2000-2100 3.0 Cº/century
Predicted warming rate by UEA (2012), 2000-2100 4.0-6.0 Cº/century
 
2012-12-08 08:23:50 PM
Earlier reports indicated today would be the 278th day without snow, but Donavon said the weather service checked its records again Saturday and released previous reports had the number of days wrong.

ONCE AGAIN THE GLOBAL WARMING ILLUMINATI ARE CAUGHT IN A LIE AND HAVE TO BACKTRACK. HOW LONG ARE WE GOING TO ALLOW THEIR LIES IN THE LAMESTREAM MEDIA TO HELP GATHER THEIR BILLION$$$$ IN RESEARCH DOLLAR$$$$$????
 
2012-12-08 08:25:15 PM

Baryogenesis: DesertDemonWY: Mugato: That's EXACTLY how global warming works!

Yes, I'm beginning to see the trend

[i1057.photobucket.com image 850x637]

lol, 2005-2012

For those who don't know, 2005 is the warmest year on record so starting a graph there will show flat or declining warming trend. Deniers love cherry picking.


I actually misread the blue caption on that graph as "30 day trolling mean" - I can't imagine why.
 
2012-12-08 08:26:01 PM

EVERYBODY PANIC: Baryogenesis: DrPainMD: 279 days? That's not even close to a record. Des Moines has had streaks of no snow that lasted hundreds of thousands of years.

0/10

Everywhere on earth has had wet spells and dry spells, cold times and warm times - if you look back far enough. The world appears to be warming a bit during the present period. It might be from man-made causes, but other factors should also be investigated. And should the planet actually go up or down a couple degrees in this century, it will certainly have consequences, both good and bad. Whatever happens, mankind will do what it always does... deal with it.

Many are easily frightened, believing that warming will have mostly negative consequences. They may be right, but temperature fluctuations tend to include benefits. We will survive it, and we will adjust. That's how we roll. Cooling will have greater consequences, for we will lose habitable areas and croplands will be greatly diminished. Cooling equals famine. Cooling equals FLorida becoming less muggy. Goes both ways.


The downsides of climate change outweigh the benefits.
Stern Review, Economics of Climate Change (pdf)
Positives and negatives of global warming
 
2012-12-08 08:27:33 PM

justGreg: fatassbastard: DesertDemonWY: i1057.photobucket.com

[i.imgur.com image 500x341]

Not that it will change your mind.

Baryogenesis: For those who don't know, 2005 is the warmest year on record so starting a graph there will show flat or declining warming trend. Deniers love cherry picking.

Plus, that.

Measured warming rate, 1997-2012 0.0 Cº/century
Measured warming rate, 1952-2012 1.2 Cº/century
Measured warming rate, 1990-2012 1.4 Cº/century
Measured warming rate, 1860-1880 1.7 Cº/century
Measured warming rate, 1910-1940 1.7 Cº/century
Measured warming rate, 1976-2001 1.7 Cº/century
Predicted warming rate in IPCC (1990), 1990-2025 3.0 Cº/century
Predicted warming rate in IPCC (2007), 2000-2100 3.0 Cº/century
Predicted warming rate by UEA (2012), 2000-2100 4.0-6.0 Cº/century


Please look up positive feedback and get back to me.
 
2012-12-08 08:32:37 PM
 
2012-12-08 08:37:01 PM
Can someone pull a graph starting in like year 10,000BC? Seriously. I'm curious, I have no idea what it would look like, but starting in the 90s or even 70s for that matter is far too small a sample size.
 
2012-12-08 08:37:28 PM
It has been a very mild Fall here in Wisconsin, but what concerns me the most is the lack of moisture coming off a very dry Summer. We need the cold weather to kill the mosquitoes.
 
2012-12-08 08:41:38 PM
Oh hogwash, every single world wide respected GOP leader has called this bullshiate from the getgo, its just more liberal wahwah hype to scare up liberal govt programs that bleed us dry.
 
2012-12-08 08:42:28 PM

Baryogenesis: justGreg: fatassbastard: DesertDemonWY: i1057.photobucket.com

[i.imgur.com image 500x341]

Not that it will change your mind.

Baryogenesis: For those who don't know, 2005 is the warmest year on record so starting a graph there will show flat or declining warming trend. Deniers love cherry picking.

Plus, that.

Measured warming rate, 1997-2012 0.0 Cº/century
Measured warming rate, 1952-2012 1.2 Cº/century
Measured warming rate, 1990-2012 1.4 Cº/century
Measured warming rate, 1860-1880 1.7 Cº/century
Measured warming rate, 1910-1940 1.7 Cº/century
Measured warming rate, 1976-2001 1.7 Cº/century
Predicted warming rate in IPCC (1990), 1990-2025 3.0 Cº/century
Predicted warming rate in IPCC (2007), 2000-2100 3.0 Cº/century
Predicted warming rate by UEA (2012), 2000-2100 4.0-6.0 Cº/century

Please look up positive feedback and get back to me.


You'd think some of that positive feedback from the models would eke its way into the actual observed data at some point, wouldn't you.
 
2012-12-08 08:44:29 PM

CruJones: Can someone pull a graph starting in like year 10,000BC? Seriously. I'm curious, I have no idea what it would look like, but starting in the 90s or even 70s for that matter is far too small a sample size.


A 30 year sample size actually isn't too short to talk about climate trends. Remember, we're talking about the effect that human CO2 emissions have on global temperatures. Longer time scales have different forcings to consider, like orbital fluctuations driving past ice ages and interglacial periods. Looking at a 10,000 year timescale won't help us figure out what will happen in the next 10, 25, 50 or 100 years.

But, for reference:

upload.wikimedia.org
 
2012-12-08 08:50:26 PM
I have a house in Providence, RI that I payed $80k for back in 95, I'll let it go for the first $400k that walks in.

The price goes up when the celsius hits 135〫
 
2012-12-08 08:50:57 PM

tonguedepressor: Oh hogwash, every single world wide respected GOP leader has called this bullshiate from the getgo, its just more liberal wahwah hype to scare up liberal govt programs that bleed us dry.


Please move to a low-lying coastal city.
 
2012-12-08 08:50:59 PM

giftedmadness: Too much snow? Global warming.

Not enough snow? Global warming.


can't please anyone.
 
2012-12-08 09:00:06 PM

justGreg: You'd think some of that positive feedback from the models would eke its way into the actual observed data at some point, wouldn't you.


The planet's 'climate sensitivity' is the expected temperature increase from a doubling of pre industrial atmospheric CO2 (280ppm to 560ppm, currently at ~390ppm). Studies have shown a range between +1.5 C to +6C or even higher with +3C being the most likely figure. So no, I wouldn't expect to see a spike in warming just yet. The predicted warming is also neither A) instantaneous nor B) monotonically increasing. It's not as if adding CO2 today will automatically mean an increase in temperature tomorrow.

The oceans are also absorbing the vast majority of the added heat. So, if you're looking for data that shows a stronger increase, here:

www.skepticalscience.com
 
DAR [TotalFark]
2012-12-08 09:16:00 PM
We it does feel kinda strange working outside in the garden this time of year.....k/.dar
 
2012-12-08 09:16:20 PM
I only care about global warming and how to increase my chances of it to continue. I HATE the winter and everything about it here in Illinois. Last winter was the best winter ever since it snowed 4" one time and had highs below freezing for a total of 3 weeks.

/going out back to start a fire to make it warmer, even if by just a little bit
 
2012-12-08 09:18:07 PM

Krieghund: Lsherm: Two records over a hundred years apart?

Wait...what does this have to do with Gun and Roses?


Nice... I cannot 'funny' this on my phone, but still... Nice.
 
2012-12-08 09:18:15 PM

Rindred: tonguedepressor: Oh hogwash, every single world wide respected GOP leader has called this bullshiate from the getgo, its just more liberal wahwah hype to scare up liberal govt programs that bleed us dry.

Please move to a low-lying coastal city.


Why, so I can pay tolls like you?
 
2012-12-08 09:21:36 PM

LisaNeedsBraces: ClavellBCMI: LisaNeedsBraces: Where I am, it's -22C with a windchill of -27C.
Translation for the Americans: it's -7.6F with a windchill of -16.6F.
I would welcome ANY warming right about now ;)

MAN UP! Back in my youth, I'd have called that a heat wave for December (I remember going to school one day when the temp was -35F, and the wind chill was -53F, and this was in Wisconsin, NOT Alaska)!

I'm from Alberta, Canada - and agreed, this is NOTHING yet...usually January & February are the worst. I guess I'll complain then :)


I hear ya, live in Calgary and I'm not whining yet dammit!
 
2012-12-08 09:24:45 PM
40 years ago I had to endure two weeks of -40 degree weather every winter. Now I don't. Tell me again how awful global warming is.

/and then tell me how your 120 years of measurements relate to 4.5 billion years of reality
 
2012-12-08 09:34:50 PM
Not that this says anything about global temp trends, but it got up near 60 in DC today. Back to cold, wet and miserable tomorrow.
 
2012-12-08 09:45:51 PM

WhippingBoy: What caused the lack of snow in 1889?


The Krakatoa eruption? I know that happened in 1886 but Des Moines is always a few years behind the trend.
 
2012-12-08 09:46:13 PM

Baryogenesis: justGreg: You'd think some of that positive feedback from the models would eke its way into the actual observed data at some point, wouldn't you.

The planet's 'climate sensitivity' is the expected temperature increase from a doubling of pre industrial atmospheric CO2 (280ppm to 560ppm, currently at ~390ppm). Studies have shown a range between +1.5 C to +6C or even higher with +3C being the most likely figure. So no, I wouldn't expect to see a spike in warming just yet. The predicted warming is also neither A) instantaneous nor B) monotonically increasing. It's not as if adding CO2 today will automatically mean an increase in temperature tomorrow.

The oceans are also absorbing the vast majority of the added heat. So, if you're looking for data that shows a stronger increase, here:


Pretty much every other scientific discipline would laugh at the idea of claiming "studies have shown" when they really mean "speculative academic papers based not on observational data but on unvalidated computer models have claimed". Gotta love climate science, where the bar is low but the arrogance is high.
 
2012-12-08 09:53:12 PM

bingethinker: 40 years ago I had to endure two weeks of -40 degree weather every winter. Now I don't. Tell me again how awful global warming is.

/and then tell me how your 120 years of measurements relate to 4.5 billion years of reality



Tell me how the past 4.5 billion years is relevant to a specific atmospheric change that began a couple of centuries ago.
 
2012-12-08 09:55:08 PM

tonguedepressor: world wide respected GOP leader


You believe in unicorns, too, don't you?
 
2012-12-08 09:55:39 PM

justGreg: Baryogenesis: justGreg: You'd think some of that positive feedback from the models would eke its way into the actual observed data at some point, wouldn't you.

The planet's 'climate sensitivity' is the expected temperature increase from a doubling of pre industrial atmospheric CO2 (280ppm to 560ppm, currently at ~390ppm). Studies have shown a range between +1.5 C to +6C or even higher with +3C being the most likely figure. So no, I wouldn't expect to see a spike in warming just yet. The predicted warming is also neither A) instantaneous nor B) monotonically increasing. It's not as if adding CO2 today will automatically mean an increase in temperature tomorrow.

The oceans are also absorbing the vast majority of the added heat. So, if you're looking for data that shows a stronger increase, here:

Pretty much every other scientific discipline would laugh at the idea of claiming "studies have shown" when they really mean "speculative academic papers based not on observational data but on unvalidated computer models have claimed". Gotta love climate science, where the bar is low but the arrogance is high.



Um, that graph IS based on observed data.

Problem?
 
2012-12-08 09:56:17 PM

LisaNeedsBraces: Where I am, it's -22C with a windchill of -27C.
Translation for the Americans: it's -7.6F with a windchill of -16.6F.
I would welcome ANY warming right about now ;)


How are you doin?
 
2012-12-08 09:56:48 PM

common sense is an oxymoron: bingethinker: 40 years ago I had to endure two weeks of -40 degree weather every winter. Now I don't. Tell me again how awful global warming is.

/and then tell me how your 120 years of measurements relate to 4.5 billion years of reality


Tell me how the past 4.5 billion years is relevant to a specific atmospheric change that began a couple of centuries ago.


Both are irrelevant. The only thing that we have to determine is how much of Americas GDP can be siphoned off to the rest of the world with Global Warming as a reason.

Then when that is settled they will move on to the next issue that only the UN can handle and it also will magically involve a tax on western countries to shift money to the less developed world.

Progressives haven't had a new idea since Margaret Sanger and Hitler were in charge, its still the same old song and dance,
 
2012-12-08 10:00:55 PM
As someone that has enjoyed those 279, let me say thanks!
 
2012-12-08 10:01:31 PM

archichris: common sense is an oxymoron: bingethinker: 40 years ago I had to endure two weeks of -40 degree weather every winter. Now I don't. Tell me again how awful global warming is.

/and then tell me how your 120 years of measurements relate to 4.5 billion years of reality


Tell me how the past 4.5 billion years is relevant to a specific atmospheric change that began a couple of centuries ago.

Both are irrelevant. The only thing that we have to determine is how much of Americas GDP can be siphoned off to the rest of the world with Global Warming as a reason.

Then when that is settled they will move on to the next issue that only the UN can handle and it also will magically involve a tax on western countries to shift money to the less developed world.

Progressives haven't had a new idea since Margaret Sanger and Hitler were in charge, its still the same old song and dance,



ctboom.com
Oh, noes! It's the PROGRESSIVES!!!
 
2012-12-08 10:01:51 PM

justGreg: Baryogenesis: justGreg: You'd think some of that positive feedback from the models would eke its way into the actual observed data at some point, wouldn't you.

The planet's 'climate sensitivity' is the expected temperature increase from a doubling of pre industrial atmospheric CO2 (280ppm to 560ppm, currently at ~390ppm). Studies have shown a range between +1.5 C to +6C or even higher with +3C being the most likely figure. So no, I wouldn't expect to see a spike in warming just yet. The predicted warming is also neither A) instantaneous nor B) monotonically increasing. It's not as if adding CO2 today will automatically mean an increase in temperature tomorrow.

The oceans are also absorbing the vast majority of the added heat. So, if you're looking for data that shows a stronger increase, here:

Pretty much every other scientific discipline would laugh at the idea of claiming "studies have shown" when they really mean "speculative academic papers based not on observational data but on unvalidated computer models have claimed". Gotta love climate science, where the bar is low but the arrogance is high.


So, your argument is "it's wrong because I say it's wrong"? I mean, you could find a paper that shows low sensitivity or argue that there are some negative feedbacks not being accounted for, you know, something with substance. But no, you'll go with "climate science is a crock because I read a blog post that said so" and not even bother confirming your assumption that ALL climate sensitivity studies are based on computer models (why is that bad exactly?). I love how intellectually honest climate deniers are.

Climate sensitivity from empirical observations

There have been a number of studies that calculate climate sensitivity directly from empirical observations, independent of models.

Lorius 1990 examined Vostok ice core data and calculates a range of 3 to 4°C.
Hoffert 1992 reconstructs two paleoclimate records (one colder, one warmer) to yield a range 1.4 to 3.2°C.
Hansen 1993 looks at the last 20,000 years when the last ice age ended and empirically calculates a climate sensitivity of 3 ± 1°C.
Gregory 2002 used observations of ocean heat uptake to calculate a minimum climate sensitivity of 1.5.
Chylek 2007 examines the period from the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene transition. They calculate a climate sensitivy range of 1.3°C and 2.3°C.
Tung 2007 performs statistical analysis on 20th century temperature response to the solar cycle to calculate a range 2.3 to 4.1°C.
Bender 2010 looks at the climate response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption to constrain climate sensitivity to 1.7 to 4.1°C.
 
2012-12-08 10:03:37 PM

i upped my meds-up yours: WhippingBoy: What caused the lack of snow in 1889?

The Krakatoa eruption? I know that happened in 1886 but Des Moines is always a few years behind the trend.


ba-dump-TSH
 
2012-12-08 10:11:08 PM

common sense is an oxymoron: bingethinker: 40 years ago I had to endure two weeks of -40 degree weather every winter. Now I don't. Tell me again how awful global warming is.

/and then tell me how your 120 years of measurements relate to 4.5 billion years of reality


Tell me how the past 4.5 billion years is relevant to a specific atmospheric change that began a couple of centuries ago.


And with how much precision can the last couple centuries be correlated against 4.5 billion years of the geological record?

We have great coverage and resolution in recent times. But you risk losing the forest for the trees...
 
2012-12-08 10:16:53 PM

KarmicDisaster: It has been a very mild Fall here in Wisconsin, but what concerns me the most is the lack of moisture coming off a very dry Summer. We need the cold weather to kill the mosquitoes.


I think we're sending you a bit of moisture as well as a downward trend in the jet stream to the west of you right now. It's really snowing here, and it should be at least very cold if not snowing in about two days where you are.
/so, a bit late but who hasn't seen that before?
//mild fall here also for what it's worth
 
2012-12-08 10:19:53 PM

Representative of the unwashed masses: common sense is an oxymoron: bingethinker: 40 years ago I had to endure two weeks of -40 degree weather every winter. Now I don't. Tell me again how awful global warming is.

/and then tell me how your 120 years of measurements relate to 4.5 billion years of reality


Tell me how the past 4.5 billion years is relevant to a specific atmospheric change that began a couple of centuries ago.

And with how much precision can the last couple centuries be correlated against 4.5 billion years of the geological record?

We have great coverage and resolution in recent times. But you risk losing the forest for the trees...



True.

So how is 4.5 billion years of data relevant to predicting the effects of a significant change occurring over a time frame far shorter than the geologic record can resolve?
 
2012-12-08 10:25:57 PM

common sense is an oxymoron: Representative of the unwashed masses: common sense is an oxymoron: bingethinker: 40 years ago I had to endure two weeks of -40 degree weather every winter. Now I don't. Tell me again how awful global warming is.

/and then tell me how your 120 years of measurements relate to 4.5 billion years of reality


Tell me how the past 4.5 billion years is relevant to a specific atmospheric change that began a couple of centuries ago.

And with how much precision can the last couple centuries be correlated against 4.5 billion years of the geological record?

We have great coverage and resolution in recent times. But you risk losing the forest for the trees...


True.

So how is 4.5 billion years of data relevant to predicting the effects of a significant change occurring over a time frame far shorter than the geologic record can resolve?


The point is that if we can see a history of similar rises and falls in temperature or Greenhouse gas concentrations natural processes could be more important than many people realize.

For example Tim Tebow had one great play in the playoffs last year, it doesn't make him the greatest football player of all time.

I fully support developing alternate fuels and reducing pollution. I just don't fully accept that we are totally responsible personally.
 
2012-12-08 10:44:49 PM
We had some record low temperatures here in Europe a few days ago...
Funny how we're still part of the globe, right?
 
2012-12-08 11:00:05 PM
Representative of the unwashed masses:The point is that if we can see a history of similar rises and falls in temperature or Greenhouse gas concentrations natural processes could be more important than many people realize.


How would the source of greenhouse gases (natural vs. anthropogenic) affect their effect?

Natural processes can and do affect climate. However, no ongoing natural process can account for the currently observed change in temperature, and any hypothesis invoking such processes must also explain why the well-documented greenhouse effect of CO2 is NOT responsible.


For example Tim Tebow had one great play in the playoffs last year, it doesn't make him the greatest football player of all time.


A single event can't really be compared to an ongoing process.


I fully support developing alternate fuels and reducing pollution. I just don't fully accept that we are totally responsible personally.


Why not? And does anything less than total responsibility absolve humans from blame?
 
2012-12-08 11:03:06 PM

Representative of the unwashed masses: The point is that if we can see a history of similar rises and falls in temperature or Greenhouse gas concentrations natural processes could be more important than many people realize.


Who is 'many people' here? Scientists who have spent decades determining that natural processes don't account for the current warming?

Look, if a marine biologist tells you that fish are dying en masse, do you really think it's so important to point out that water is made of hydrogen and oxygen?
 
2012-12-08 11:04:38 PM

Baryogenesis: justGreg: You'd think some of that positive feedback from the models would eke its way into the actual observed data at some point, wouldn't you.

The planet's 'climate sensitivity' is the expected temperature increase from a doubling of pre industrial atmospheric CO2 (280ppm to 560ppm, currently at ~390ppm). Studies have shown a range between +1.5 C to +6C or even higher with +3C being the most likely figure. So no, I wouldn't expect to see a spike in warming just yet. The predicted warming is also neither A) instantaneous nor B) monotonically increasing. It's not as if adding CO2 today will automatically mean an increase in temperature tomorrow.

The oceans are also absorbing the vast majority of the added heat. So, if you're looking for data that shows a stronger increase, here:

[www.skepticalscience.com image 489x373]


LOL Trenberth's missing heat meme FTW!!
 
2012-12-08 11:17:37 PM

Representative of the unwashed masses: The point is that if we can see a history of similar rises and falls in temperature or Greenhouse gas concentrations natural processes could be more important than many people realize.


Do you think the folks who study climate have forgotten to include natural processes in their analysis? One of the reasons the scientific community has determined that current warming is driven by humans instead of nature is that they understand the natural forcings at work in our climate and have determined they can't be responsible. For example, the process that drove the 'recent' cycle of ice ages and interglacials is orbital fluctuations, but those operate on timescales of thousands of years, not decades like current warming.
 
2012-12-08 11:18:10 PM

Representative of the unwashed masses: common sense is an oxymoron: Representative of the unwashed masses: common sense is an oxymoron: bingethinker: 40 years ago I had to endure two weeks of -40 degree weather every winter. Now I don't. Tell me again how awful global warming is.

/and then tell me how your 120 years of measurements relate to 4.5 billion years of reality


Tell me how the past 4.5 billion years is relevant to a specific atmospheric change that began a couple of centuries ago.

And with how much precision can the last couple centuries be correlated against 4.5 billion years of the geological record?

We have great coverage and resolution in recent times. But you risk losing the forest for the trees...


True.

So how is 4.5 billion years of data relevant to predicting the effects of a significant change occurring over a time frame far shorter than the geologic record can resolve?

The point is that if we can see a history of similar rises and falls in temperature or Greenhouse gas concentrations natural processes could be more important than many people realize.

For example Tim Tebow had one great play in the playoffs last year, it doesn't make him the greatest football player of all time.

I fully support developing alternate fuels and reducing pollution. I just don't fully accept that we are totally responsible personally.


Most energy companies actually do accept the truth on this, and don't make any bones about it. The exceptions are the few with a political axe to grind. Houston, the energy capitol of the entire planet, voted for Obama in '08 and again in '12.

CO2 is a major contributor to climate change. There is no, none, zero argument over this.

The level of CO2 has shot upward - some people call it a "hockey stick", but when you look at it on a the scale used by people who trust geology very closely (like energy companies) it's not a hockey stick, it's Wile E. Coyote running flat-out into the side of a mountain.

Climate change is going to have mind-boggling economic impacts over the next few decades - New York, Florida, New Orleans, Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, Washington DC, Maryland, South Carolina, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, California, Arizona, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New Jersey might disagree about the timetable. A few inches of water on a few thousand miles of incredibly valuable and populated coastline, lake, and riverfront costs a lot. Again, this is not disputed by any reasonable authority, and the markets reflect this truth.

The world's voters, and their governments will, in large part, do absolutely nothing about this, because at the current time there is no economically or politically feasible alternative to carbon-based fuels. That equation will change only as the cost of alternatives comes down, which does not appear to be immediately happening. My 401k and the cars in my neighbor's driveways - all of them energy people - verify this.

Monday morning, I'll go to work ensuring that a lot of hydrocarbons are burned, creating many hundreds of tons of CO2, in order to sell the product at a (hopefully) handsome profit. I'll comply with all relevant laws, as will my competitors - and I'll try to be more efficient, not for moral reasons, but to make sure my mortgage is paid. Why does anyone need to pretend reality is somehow different than this?
 
2012-12-08 11:19:45 PM

WhippingBoy: What caused the lack of snow in 1889?


The question conveniently ignored. If anecdotal accounts of the effects of a Volcanic eruption is sufficient enough proof for folks, who's to say there wasn't something similar which happened in the last three years?
 
2012-12-08 11:20:17 PM

archichris: The only thing that we have to determine is how much of Americas GDP can be siphoned off to the rest of the world with Global Warming as a reason.

Then when that is settled they will move on to the next issue that only the UN can handle and it also will magically involve a tax on western countries to shift money to the less developed world.


2/10 Would "lol" again.
 
2012-12-08 11:36:07 PM

Rufus Lee King: Never mind. I read that as "1869".


Close enough. Benjamin Harrison also had a beard. (bit of trivia: he was the last)
 
2012-12-08 11:40:15 PM
Suspect is hatless, I repeat, hatless.
 
2012-12-08 11:49:19 PM

MisterTweak: Representative of the unwashed masses: common sense is an oxymoron: Representative of the unwashed masses: common sense is an oxymoron: bingethinker: 40 years ago I had to endure two weeks of -40 degree weather every winter. Now I don't. Tell me again how awful global warming is.

/and then tell me how your 120 years of measurements relate to 4.5 billion years of reality

Most energy companies actually do accept the truth on this, and don't make any bones about it. The exceptions are the few with a political axe to grind. Houston, the energy capitol of the entire planet, voted for Obama in '08 and again in '12.


A large city full of poor minorities voted for Obama?

NO WAY!
 
2012-12-08 11:57:26 PM

Jesda: A large city full of poor minorities voted for Obama?

NO WAY!


Oh, look at you.
 
2012-12-09 12:08:42 AM

Baryogenesis: Representative of the unwashed masses: The point is that if we can see a history of similar rises and falls in temperature or Greenhouse gas concentrations natural processes could be more important than many people realize.

Do you think the folks who study climate have forgotten to include natural processes in their analysis? One of the reasons the scientific community has determined that current warming is driven by humans instead of nature is that they understand the natural forcings at work in our climate and have determined they can't be responsible. For example, the process that drove the 'recent' cycle of ice ages and interglacials is orbital fluctuations, but those operate on timescales of thousands of years, not decades like current warming.


I fully respect the scientists heck I am one! (Work as a hydrogeologist) its the media and layman public at large I think that don't ponder questions of scale. When hundreds of years of ice core can be an inch or two thick I tend to be cautious in my support for global warming theory.

Water and air pollution are good enough reasons on their own to clean up. Personally I just haven't made the leap that doom and gloom is happenning. That's just my opinion
 
2012-12-09 12:09:36 AM
Global warming, not here.
lindsayrgwatt.com
 
2012-12-09 12:12:49 AM

Jesda: MisterTweak: Representative of the unwashed masses: common sense is an oxymoron: Representative of the unwashed masses: common sense is an oxymoron: bingethinker: 40 years ago I had to endure two weeks of -40 degree weather every winter. Now I don't. Tell me again how awful global warming is.

/and then tell me how your 120 years of measurements relate to 4.5 billion years of reality

Most energy companies actually do accept the truth on this, and don't make any bones about it. The exceptions are the few with a political axe to grind. Houston, the energy capitol of the entire planet, voted for Obama in '08 and again in '12.


A large city full of poor minorities voted for Obama?

NO WAY!


That's gonna cost you an extra 15 cents a gallon when you fill up tomorrow, son.
 
2012-12-09 12:24:03 AM

Deep Contact: Global warming, not here.
[lindsayrgwatt.com image 320x480]



Wow...three winters ago, it was cold in the world's coldest city.
 
2012-12-09 12:25:13 AM
Four winters.
 
2012-12-09 12:25:42 AM
Know why Al Gore quit calling it global warming?

Because climate change is actually honest. Because ....

s3.amazonaws.com
 
2012-12-09 12:46:22 AM
The trolls have been busy today.
 
2012-12-09 12:49:12 AM

common sense is an oxymoron: justGreg: Baryogenesis: justGreg: You'd think some of that positive feedback from the models would eke its way into the actual observed data at some point, wouldn't you.

The planet's 'climate sensitivity' is the expected temperature increase from a doubling of pre industrial atmospheric CO2 (280ppm to 560ppm, currently at ~390ppm). Studies have shown a range between +1.5 C to +6C or even higher with +3C being the most likely figure. So no, I wouldn't expect to see a spike in warming just yet. The predicted warming is also neither A) instantaneous nor B) monotonically increasing. It's not as if adding CO2 today will automatically mean an increase in temperature tomorrow.

The oceans are also absorbing the vast majority of the added heat. So, if you're looking for data that shows a stronger increase, here:

Pretty much every other scientific discipline would laugh at the idea of claiming "studies have shown" when they really mean "speculative academic papers based not on observational data but on unvalidated computer models have claimed". Gotta love climate science, where the bar is low but the arrogance is high.


Um, that graph IS based on observed data.

Problem?


Citation? Looks like a picture from the skeptical science blog, and I'm pretty sure it is based on work from Trenberth using models to try and explain why the global temperatures and SST don't reflect the level of warming the models expect. In other words, pretty much the opposite of observational data, and exactly the kind of marginal methodology I am talking about.
 
2012-12-09 12:49:18 AM

MisterTweak: And it's 82 in houston in mid-december. For the fifth day in a row. So, good news is, being in the energy business, I'd like to thank everyone for cranking that AC up today. Bad news, yeah, I think we've broken the planet.


Ya know, I'm from Illinois, and when I was a kid growing up even in the early 80s, the AC stayed off until it was hot.

/82 ain't hot
 
2012-12-09 12:56:16 AM
Baryogenesis:

There have been a number of studies that calculate climate sensitivity directly from empirical observations, independent of models.

Lorius 1990 examined Vostok ice core data and calculates a range of 3 to 4°C.
Hoffert 1992 reconstructs two paleoclimate records (one colder, one warmer) to yield a range 1.4 to 3.2°C.
Hansen 1993 looks at the last 20,000 years when the last ice age ended and empirically calculates a climate sensitivity of 3 ± 1°C.
Gregory 2002 used observations of ocean heat uptake to calculate a minimum climate sensitivity of 1.5.
Chylek 2007 examines the period from the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene transition. They calculate a climate sensitivy range of 1.3°C and 2.3°C.
Tung 2007 performs statistical analysis on 20th century temperature response to the solar cycle to calculate a range 2.3 to 4.1°C.
Bender 2010 looks at the climate response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption to constrain climate sensitivity to 1.7 to 4.1°C.


I'll assume you have just not read those papers, as that is the only way you could describe them as independent of models without abject misrepresentation.
 
2012-12-09 01:08:15 AM

Clemkadidlefark: Al Gore


DRINK!
 
2012-12-09 01:15:12 AM
HORSE HOCKEY!
If they broke a record, that means there was a time that it didn't snow for almost the
same amount of time.
 
2012-12-09 01:27:00 AM

CruJones: Can someone pull a graph starting in like year 10,000BC? Seriously. I'm curious, I have no idea what it would look like, but starting in the 90s or even 70s for that matter is far too small a sample size.


anarchy_x just gave you that, upthread. The bottom line is: we were on our way to another ice-age, but global warming is saving our asses, this time. Of course, having multiplied a little since then, and by now living happily on coast-lines etc, we will have to move a little and there might not be enough to eat for everyone, but other than that: no problems.
 
2012-12-09 01:32:51 AM

Baryogenesis: CruJones: Can someone pull a graph starting in like year 10,000BC? Seriously. I'm curious, I have no idea what it would look like, but starting in the 90s or even 70s for that matter is far too small a sample size.

A 30 year sample size actually isn't too short to talk about climate trends. Remember, we're talking about the effect that human CO2 emissions have on global temperatures. Longer time scales have different forcings to consider, like orbital fluctuations driving past ice ages and interglacial periods. Looking at a 10,000 year timescale won't help us figure out what will happen in the next 10, 25, 50 or 100 years.

But, for reference:

[upload.wikimedia.org image 600x400]


That's not entirely true; we know enough about history from the last 2000 years (which is a relevant timeframe within those 10000 years), to make some general predictions.
 
2012-12-09 01:50:03 AM

justGreg: common sense is an oxymoron: justGreg: Baryogenesis: justGreg: You'd think some of that positive feedback from the models would eke its way into the actual observed data at some point, wouldn't you.

The planet's 'climate sensitivity' is the expected temperature increase from a doubling of pre industrial atmospheric CO2 (280ppm to 560ppm, currently at ~390ppm). Studies have shown a range between +1.5 C to +6C or even higher with +3C being the most likely figure. So no, I wouldn't expect to see a spike in warming just yet. The predicted warming is also neither A) instantaneous nor B) monotonically increasing. It's not as if adding CO2 today will automatically mean an increase in temperature tomorrow.

The oceans are also absorbing the vast majority of the added heat. So, if you're looking for data that shows a stronger increase, here:

Pretty much every other scientific discipline would laugh at the idea of claiming "studies have shown" when they really mean "speculative academic papers based not on observational data but on unvalidated computer models have claimed". Gotta love climate science, where the bar is low but the arrogance is high.


Um, that graph IS based on observed data.

Problem?

Citation? Looks like a picture from the skeptical science blog, and I'm pretty sure it is based on work from Trenberth using models to try and explain why the global temperatures and SST don't reflect the level of warming the models expect. In other words, pretty much the opposite of observational data, and exactly the kind of marginal methodology I am talking about.



Try this. It's also from Skeptical Science, but they provide links to the original papers, in this case by Levitus et al. Link

www.skepticalscience.com
 
2012-12-09 01:54:14 AM
I read an article in the Financial Times recently that said that the Mississippi is only a couple of weeks from reaching such low levels that shipping will have to stop in some places, trapping $7 billion in goods upstream of the blockages.

Try to remember the last time that happened.

It might be nice to avoid the snow, but unhappily the lost snow is a major source of water in the Spring and it also protects the ground during the Winter. Without it, things that might live through the Winter die, while things that might die in the Winter live. Bad news for farmers because if it doesn't get cold enough, insect pests will be plentiful the following year; while if there isn't enough snow; water levels will be low or come at the wrong time. The snow is also just above freezing, so it protects many plants, insects and animals, some of which are beneficial, some harmful but all part of the system.

All in all, the climate has been changing in many ways, poorly understood in some cases (snow and ice being particularly ambiguous and difficult to predict) and this is not really good news for the economy or the ecology.
 
2012-12-09 01:57:15 AM
Wednesday, cold and blustery winds.
Thursday, went outside in a sweater, had to take it off half way through the day, it was so warm out.
friday, different sweater, nearly froze to death during the day
today. ...It is snowing outside.

/it is climate CHANGE, you morons, not just "warming"
//that whole "Sandy" business? Yeah, that, only more of them
///waiting for Katrina 2 next year
////Obama hates black ... wait a minute
 
2012-12-09 02:41:16 AM

kmmontandon: Sgygus: Warm and dry, the midwest is suffering the apocalypse of boredom.


So ... business as usual?


This.

One more thing not happening in Des Moines just means it's that much more boring.
 
2012-12-09 02:42:03 AM
How does it work that a record lack of snowfall in any given are is global warming and a record amount of snowfall in the same area is also global warming?
 
2012-12-09 03:21:10 AM
nevermind that the "record" is only 20 days off the average, but that means global cooling happened from 1889 to 2012 right?
 
2012-12-09 04:36:04 AM

Baryogenesis: For those who don't know, 2005 is the warmest year on record so starting a graph there will show flat or declining warming trend. Deniers love cherry picking.


2005 was not the warmest year the planet has ever seen. Sounds like you're the one who's cherry picking.
 
2012-12-09 04:58:44 AM

brantgoose: I read an article in the Financial Times recently that said that the Mississippi is only a couple of weeks from reaching such low levels that shipping will have to stop in some places, trapping $7 billion in goods upstream of the blockages.

Try to remember the last time that happened.

It might be nice to avoid the snow, but unhappily the lost snow is a major source of water in the Spring and it also protects the ground during the Winter. Without it, things that might live through the Winter die, while things that might die in the Winter live. Bad news for farmers because if it doesn't get cold enough, insect pests will be plentiful the following year; while if there isn't enough snow; water levels will be low or come at the wrong time. The snow is also just above freezing, so it protects many plants, insects and animals, some of which are beneficial, some harmful but all part of the system.

All in all, the climate has been changing in many ways, poorly understood in some cases (snow and ice being particularly ambiguous and difficult to predict) and this is not really good news for the economy or the ecology.


Why would it be bad for the ecology? The Earth doesn't care what temperature it is, and no matter how many plants or animals die off, others will replace them.
 
2012-12-09 05:11:24 AM

Baryogenesis: EVERYBODY PANIC: Baryogenesis: DrPainMD: 279 days? That's not even close to a record. Des Moines has had streaks of no snow that lasted hundreds of thousands of years.

0/10

Everywhere on earth has had wet spells and dry spells, cold times and warm times - if you look back far enough. The world appears to be warming a bit during the present period. It might be from man-made causes, but other factors should also be investigated. And should the planet actually go up or down a couple degrees in this century, it will certainly have consequences, both good and bad. Whatever happens, mankind will do what it always does... deal with it.

Many are easily frightened, believing that warming will have mostly negative consequences. They may be right, but temperature fluctuations tend to include benefits. We will survive it, and we will adjust. That's how we roll. Cooling will have greater consequences, for we will lose habitable areas and croplands will be greatly diminished. Cooling equals famine. Cooling equals FLorida becoming less muggy. Goes both ways.

The downsides of climate change outweigh the benefits.
Stern Review, Economics of Climate Change (pdf)
Positives and negatives of global warming


Predictions? Based on computer models? Don't get me started. I've been a software engineer for 25 years, and you can't accurately model anything complex unless you know ALL the variables (they don't know this), EXACTLY how all the variables affect each other (they don't know this), and what the EXACT initial state of the variables are (they certainly don't know this).

Speculation is speculation.
 
2012-12-09 06:43:23 AM

justGreg: Baryogenesis:

There have been a number of studies that calculate climate sensitivity directly from empirical observations, independent of models.

Lorius 1990 examined Vostok ice core data and calculates a range of 3 to 4°C.
Hoffert 1992 reconstructs two paleoclimate records (one colder, one warmer) to yield a range 1.4 to 3.2°C.
Hansen 1993 looks at the last 20,000 years when the last ice age ended and empirically calculates a climate sensitivity of 3 ± 1°C.
Gregory 2002 used observations of ocean heat uptake to calculate a minimum climate sensitivity of 1.5.
Chylek 2007 examines the period from the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene transition. They calculate a climate sensitivy range of 1.3°C and 2.3°C.
Tung 2007 performs statistical analysis on 20th century temperature response to the solar cycle to calculate a range 2.3 to 4.1°C.
Bender 2010 looks at the climate response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption to constrain climate sensitivity to 1.7 to 4.1°C.

I'll assume you have just not read those papers, as that is the only way you could describe them as independent of models without abject misrepresentation.


What are you babbling about? You asked for climate sensitivity based on empirical data and that's what I gave you. Are you just going to keep saying all papers on the subject are wrong because you say so?

DrPainMD: Baryogenesis: For those who don't know, 2005 is the warmest year on record so starting a graph there will show flat or declining warming trend. Deniers love cherry picking.

2005 was not the warmest year the planet has ever seen. Sounds like you're the one who's cherry picking.


Jesus motherfarking Christ, you put "on record" in bold and still couldn't figure out what it meant. I obviously have to spell this out for you since you're a colossal moron: 'on record' doesn't include the 4.5 billion year history of the planet just the part we have, you know, recorded.

DrPainMD: Predictions? Based on computer models? Don't get me started. I've been a software engineer for 25 years, and you can't accurately model anything complex unless you know ALL the variables (they don't know this), EXACTLY how all the variables affect each other (they don't know this), and what the EXACT initial state of the variables are (they certainly don't know this).

Speculation is speculation.


The colossal moron strikes again. We don't need perfect information to understand the large scale problems we'll face adapting to a warmer world. No one is trying to predict annual rainfall in Nebraska to the hundredth of an inch. It's more like determining the impact of +2C on water resources and crop yields in vulnerable areas. For example, the heat wave in Europe in 2003 had a huge impact on crop yields. We don't need to know the exact drop in total bushels of corn to understand that higher temperatures and reduced rainfall will negatively affect crops.

This black and white, "it's not perfectly correct therefore it's wrong" approach is completely moronic.
 
2012-12-09 08:14:45 AM
I'm watching it snow in Altoona Iowa right now.
 
2012-12-09 08:52:19 AM
This gets confusing. Too much snowfall in Europe is blamed on global warming, too little snowfall in Des Moines is blamed on global warming.

Actually it would be global cooling that explains it: here is why.
1. A global cooling cycle means that generally there is LESS moister in the air to produce the snow (warm waters produce the upward water. (funny thing low pressure can do it too; but you have to have the cool temps to get the low pressure).
2. If the planet cools the flow of cool water out of the polar areas slows, this means the warm water that would have been displaced in the global cycle does not make it to the polar regions to warm them. - translation temps drop in the polar region, central regions warm due to lack of cooling.
3. Since it is cold in the polar, seaward areas have a lower pressue brining cold ready to freeze water into the admosphear which drops back as snow. Des Moines not being on the sea side does not get this snow; but the colder temps mean that the mositure that would produce snow does not.
4. Sublimation - the process of going from a solid to a gas without becoming a liquid. You can see this in ice cubes in your freezer. If you have frozen cubes today, but smaller cubes tomorrow that does not mean the average temp of your freezer went from -5F to -2F thereby melting them; thats reeeeediculous. In reality what happenes as your freezer does its job the temp drops, the molecules on the surface leap off like spider man one at a time, so it never forms a liquid - just becomes a gas. So the cubes get smaller as this mono-layer strips away.

Trust me, this is not rocket surgery and it is not global warming; it is more likley global cooling.
 
2012-12-09 09:10:00 AM
Oh, come on. It's not global warming. It just hasn't snowed yet.

My toilet won't flush. Must be global warming. Wahhhhhhh!!!!
 
2012-12-09 09:22:37 AM
coffee smells good: WhippingBoy: What caused the lack of snow in 1889?


Global warning's dressed rehearsal?

That and all the SUVs running around 125 years ago that the current history books seem to ignore.


Yeah, all those 1889 model H2s
 
2012-12-09 09:28:10 AM
How is going one day over the previous record shattering that record? We use the word "shatter" when a record is beaten by a substantial margin. One day breaks the record, but by no means shatters it. Since it is snowing in Des Moines right now, the record won't extend any further.
 
2012-12-09 09:30:10 AM

cfroelic: How is going one day over the previous record shattering that record? We use the word "shatter" when a record is beaten by a substantial margin. One day breaks the record, but by no means shatters it. Since it is snowing in Des Moines right now, the record won't extend any further.



I'm blaming fark for jinxing it.
 
2012-12-09 09:31:26 AM
Oldiron_79: coffee smells good: WhippingBoy: What caused the lack of snow in 1889?


Global warning's dressed rehearsal?

That and all the SUVs running around 125 years ago that the current history books seem to ignore.

Yeah, all those 1889 model H2s


(hoping for a p shopped steampunk 1800s SUV)
 
2012-12-09 10:54:25 AM

Baryogenesis: DrPainMD: Baryogenesis: For those who don't know, 2005 is the warmest year on record so starting a graph there will show flat or declining warming trend. Deniers love cherry picking.

2005 was not the warmest year the planet has ever seen. Sounds like you're the one who's cherry picking.

Jesus motherfarking Christ, you put "on record" in bold and still couldn't figure out what it meant. I obviously have to spell this out for you since you're a colossal moron: 'on record' doesn't include the 4.5 billion year history of the planet just the part we have, you know, recorded.


In other words, yes, you were cherry picking your data as you were complaining about other people cherry picking their data. And I'm the moron?

DrPainMD: Predictions? Based on computer models? Don't get me started. I've been a software engineer for 25 years, and you can't accurately model anything complex unless you know ALL the variables (they don't know this), EXACTLY how all the variables affect each other (they don't know this), and what the EXACT initial state of the variables are (they certainly don't know this).

Speculation is speculation.

The colossal moron strikes again. We don't need perfect information to understand the large scale problems we'll face adapting to a warmer world. No one is trying to predict annual rainfall in Nebraska to the hundredth of an inch. It's more like determining the impact of +2C on water resources and crop yields in vulnerable areas. For example, the heat wave in Europe in 2003 had a huge impact on crop yields. We don't need to know the exact drop in total bushels of corn to understand that higher temperatures and reduced rainfall will negatively affect crops.

This black and white, "it's not perfectly correct therefore it's wrong" approach is completely moronic.


What I'm saying is that climate cannot be modeled accurately, and it has nothing to do with programming technique or computer power. You can't get around the butterfly effect just like you can't accelerate past the speed of light. That's not moronic, that's the way it is. Using models to predict climate change so you can prepare for it won't work, because the climate, while always changing, will not change the way the models predict; you're preparing for an event that won't happen. Again, I've got 25 years experience... how much do you have (let me guess: none)? Let's make it interesting: take whatever prediction (say 10 or 20 years into the future) you think is the best one, and I'll wager any amount you'd like that it turns out to be wrong. I'll even give you good odds.
 
2012-12-09 11:10:50 AM

justGreg: Predicted warming rate in IPCC (1990), 1990-2025 3.0 Cº/century
Predicted warming rate in IPCC (2007), 2000-2100 3.0 Cº/century
Predicted warming rate by UEA (2012), 2000-2100 4.0-6.0 Cº/century


Except that the models have a well established track record of error in predicted increases.

i.imgur.com

i.imgur.com

i.imgur.com

Not to say that it's not warming, just not warming at the rate predicted by the climate models.



/is it hot in here?
//somebody open a window
 
2012-12-09 11:27:28 AM
well that didn't take long. it snowed this morning.
 
2012-12-09 11:35:47 AM
quarter inch outside my window just south of gray's lake atm
 
2012-12-09 01:12:02 PM
Some weather fun from Chicago...

farm9.staticflickr.com
 
2012-12-09 08:02:45 PM
www.trbimg.com
 
2012-12-09 09:31:41 PM

Deep Contact: [www.trbimg.com image 600x400]


imokwiththat.jpg
 
2012-12-09 09:45:24 PM

DrPainMD: Baryogenesis: DrPainMD: Baryogenesis: For those who don't know, 2005 is the warmest year on record so starting a graph there will show flat or declining warming trend. Deniers love cherry picking.

2005 was not the warmest year the planet has ever seen. Sounds like you're the one who's cherry picking.

Jesus motherfarking Christ, you put "on record" in bold and still couldn't figure out what it meant. I obviously have to spell this out for you since you're a colossal moron: 'on record' doesn't include the 4.5 billion year history of the planet just the part we have, you know, recorded.

In other words, yes, you were cherry picking your data as you were complaining about other people cherry picking their data. And I'm the moron?

DrPainMD: Predictions? Based on computer models? Don't get me started. I've been a software engineer for 25 years, and you can't accurately model anything complex unless you know ALL the variables (they don't know this), EXACTLY how all the variables affect each other (they don't know this), and what the EXACT initial state of the variables are (they certainly don't know this).

Speculation is speculation.

The colossal moron strikes again. We don't need perfect information to understand the large scale problems we'll face adapting to a warmer world. No one is trying to predict annual rainfall in Nebraska to the hundredth of an inch. It's more like determining the impact of +2C on water resources and crop yields in vulnerable areas. For example, the heat wave in Europe in 2003 had a huge impact on crop yields. We don't need to know the exact drop in total bushels of corn to understand that higher temperatures and reduced rainfall will negatively affect crops.

This black and white, "it's not perfectly correct therefore it's wrong" approach is completely moronic.

What I'm saying is that climate cannot be modeled accurately, and it has nothing to do with programming technique or computer power. You can't get around the butterfly effect just ...


You can keep saying that but it doesn't make it true. Scientists aren't trying for hundredth of a degree accuracy in temperature predictions for Seattle, WA for the next 10 years. These types of predictions are about broad effects from certain levels of warming. It's not hard to understand the impact of a +3 C temperature shift on crops sensitive to heat or on water reserves or on glacier mass or diseases that thrive in warm climates. And the predictions aren't "wrong" if instead of a 25% drop in crop yield there is only a 22% drop. Perfect precision isn't the point when talking about these types of broad trends. The climate isn't random just because it's chaotic.

Here's another example of what I mean, from the IPCC report:
www.ipcc.ch
 
2012-12-09 10:18:09 PM

WhippingBoy: lack of snow in 1889


I too was curious
 
2012-12-09 10:23:54 PM

redly1: WhippingBoy: lack of snow in 1889

I too was curious


also interesting
 
2012-12-10 04:16:05 AM

Baryogenesis: DrPainMD: What I'm saying is that climate cannot be modeled accurately, and it has nothing to do with programming technique or computer power. You can't get around the butterfly effect just ...

You can keep saying that but it doesn't make it true. Scientists aren't trying for hundredth of a degree accuracy in temperature predictions for Seattle, WA for the next 10 years. These types of predictions are about broad effects from certain levels of warming. It's not hard to understand the impact of a +3 C temperature shift on crops sensitive to heat or on water reserves or on glacier mass or diseases that thrive in warm climates. And the predictions aren't "wrong" if instead of a 25% drop in crop yield there is only a 22% drop. Perfect precision isn't the point when talking about these types of broad trends. The climate isn't random just because it's chaotic.


You obviously do not have a degree in math (I do). You, also, obviously, are not a programmer with experience creating models of complex processes (I do). Nor do you understand randomness, chaos, or the butterfly effect. Why are you even posting?
 
2012-12-10 09:45:26 AM

Baryogenesis: CruJones: Can someone pull a graph starting in like year 10,000BC? Seriously. I'm curious, I have no idea what it would look like, but starting in the 90s or even 70s for that matter is far too small a sample size.

A 30 year sample size actually isn't too short to talk about climate trends. Remember, we're talking about the effect that human CO2 emissions have on global temperatures. Longer time scales have different forcings to consider, like orbital fluctuations driving past ice ages and interglacial periods. Looking at a 10,000 year timescale won't help us figure out what will happen in the next 10, 25, 50 or 100 years.

But, for reference:


Shouldn't that chart only go back to 6000 years or do?
 
2012-12-10 11:35:50 AM

DrPainMD: Baryogenesis: DrPainMD: What I'm saying is that climate cannot be modeled accurately, and it has nothing to do with programming technique or computer power. You can't get around the butterfly effect just ...

You can keep saying that but it doesn't make it true. Scientists aren't trying for hundredth of a degree accuracy in temperature predictions for Seattle, WA for the next 10 years. These types of predictions are about broad effects from certain levels of warming. It's not hard to understand the impact of a +3 C temperature shift on crops sensitive to heat or on water reserves or on glacier mass or diseases that thrive in warm climates. And the predictions aren't "wrong" if instead of a 25% drop in crop yield there is only a 22% drop. Perfect precision isn't the point when talking about these types of broad trends. The climate isn't random just because it's chaotic.

You obviously do not have a degree in math (I do). You, also, obviously, are not a programmer with experience creating models of complex processes (I do). Nor do you understand randomness, chaos, or the butterfly effect. Why are you even posting?


Obviously, you are also not a grammar nazi (I do).
 
2012-12-10 09:08:54 PM

DrPainMD: You obviously do not have a degree in math (I do). You, also, obviously, are not a programmer with experience creating models of complex processes (I do). Nor do you understand randomness, chaos, or the butterfly effect. Why are you even posting?



You claim to understand chaos but choose to ignore the possible effects a rapid 40% increase in a key parameter may have on a more or less stable system? Strangely unattractive.
 
2012-12-11 07:22:09 AM

common sense is an oxymoron: DrPainMD: You obviously do not have a degree in math (I do). You, also, obviously, are not a programmer with experience creating models of complex processes (I do). Nor do you understand randomness, chaos, or the butterfly effect. Why are you even posting?


You claim to understand chaos but choose to ignore the possible effects a rapid 40% increase in a key parameter may have on a more or less stable system? Strangely unattractive.


I'm not ignoring it; it wasn't the subject of my post.
 
2012-12-11 02:14:19 PM

DrPainMD: common sense is an oxymoron: DrPainMD: You obviously do not have a degree in math (I do). You, also, obviously, are not a programmer with experience creating models of complex processes (I do). Nor do you understand randomness, chaos, or the butterfly effect. Why are you even posting?


You claim to understand chaos but choose to ignore the possible effects a rapid 40% increase in a key parameter may have on a more or less stable system? Strangely unattractive.

I'm not ignoring it; it wasn't the subject of my post.



Your argument of the moment is that climate can't be predicted. But when you also make arguments like this...

DrPainMD: Baryogenesis: For those who don't know, 2005 is the warmest year on record so starting a graph there will show flat or declining warming trend. Deniers love cherry picking.

2005 was not the warmest year the planet has ever seen. Sounds like you're the one who's cherry picking.


...your obsession with trivializing anthropogenic effects becomes obvious.

As for this...

DrPainMD: What I'm saying is that climate cannot be modeled accurately, and it has nothing to do with programming technique or computer power. You can't get around the butterfly effect just like you can't accelerate past the speed of light. That's not moronic, that's the way it is. Using models to predict climate change so you can prepare for it won't work, because the climate, while always changing, will not change the way the models predict; you're preparing for an event that won't happen. Again, I've got 25 years experience... how much do you have (let me guess: none)? Let's make it interesting: take whatever prediction (say 10 or 20 years into the future) you think is the best one, and I'll wager any amount you'd like that it turns out to be wrong. I'll even give you good odds.


...you're just plain wrong.

Back to my original comment, you claim that climate change is not predictable due to chaos while ignoring the likelihood of even more significant climate change occurring as a result of chaos. My question to you now is, does anthropogenic CO2 release affect climate or not?
 
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