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(Talking Points Memo)   According to an unskewed poll, 31 percent of the American public still trusts Gallup more than Nate Silver. Perhaps these people are also looking forward to seeing Mitt Romney's inauguration in January   (tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com) divider line 105
    More: Followup, Mitt Romney, Gallup, Americans, Fordham University, TPM Media, inauguration, rational decision  
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1769 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Dec 2012 at 6:21 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-12-05 03:15:34 PM  
i'd wager far more americans know galllup than nate silver. it's name recognition, nothing more.
 
2012-12-05 03:21:45 PM  
Factor in the 27% crazification rate, and that's really only 4%.
 
2012-12-05 03:30:31 PM  
The other 69% doesn't give a shiat for the next 3 years.
 
2012-12-05 03:46:36 PM  
"Gallup" has become a trusted (or at least a well-known) brand when it comes to polling. For many in the general public, Silver has only been on the landscape for about 4 years. Maybe even the last election was the only time they heard about him.

There is nothing surprising in this article IMHO. However, the political junkies in Fark threads would be stupid if they put more weight today behind a Gallup poll than a prediction from Silver.
 
2012-12-05 03:47:32 PM  

FlashHarry: i'd wager far more americans know galllup than nate silver. it's name recognition, nothing more.


^ This. I'd wager than less than 50% of Americans could tell you who Nate Silver is.
 
2012-12-05 04:26:28 PM  
i.imgur.com
 
2012-12-05 04:26:57 PM  

Marcus Aurelius: FlashHarry: i'd wager far more americans know galllup than nate silver. it's name recognition, nothing more.

^ This. I'd wager than less than 50% of Americans could tell you who Nate Silver is.


Wasn't he in that old Sgt. Bilko show?
 
2012-12-05 04:37:08 PM  
Perhaps these people are also looking forward to seeing Mitt Romney's inauguration in January

Mitt is. He's been sedated since Nov. 6. No one has the heart to tell him.
 
2012-12-05 04:37:47 PM  

mrshowrules: "Gallup" has become a trusted (or at least a well-known) brand when it comes to polling.


Probably a factor. However, the same poll showed Gallup with only a +3 favorability rating and a 38% "not sure"; they may be burning through more than a little of their accumulated goodwill/credibility.

It's the same poll as had the results on the Panetta-Burns plan support, but they didn't publish crosstabs between Gallup vs. Panetta-Burns.

(Oddly, Obama voters tended a bit more favorable to Gallup than Romney voters; less odd, they tended a lot more likely than Romney voters to trust Nate Silver over Gallup.)
 
2012-12-05 04:42:11 PM  

abb3w: mrshowrules: "Gallup" has become a trusted (or at least a well-known) brand when it comes to polling.

Probably a factor. However, the same poll showed Gallup with only a +3 favorability rating and a 38% "not sure"; they may be burning through more than a little of their accumulated goodwill/credibility.

It's the same poll as had the results on the Panetta-Burns plan support, but they didn't publish crosstabs between Gallup vs. Panetta-Burns.

(Oddly, Obama voters tended a bit more favorable to Gallup than Romney voters; less odd, they tended a lot more likely than Romney voters to trust Nate Silver over Gallup.)


Republicans are generally suspicious of anything considered institutional, government or academic knowledge.

If you polled people about how much the trusted (insert non-partisan authority here), I would expect Republicans to have lower numbers than Liberals.
 
2012-12-05 04:45:26 PM  
The poll showed that 12 percent have a favorable opinion of him, while 10 percent view him unfavorably. But a whopping 77 percent said they aren't sure about Silver.

This is really the issue.

For as much as Nate Silver became a "rock star" this past election... it was really only political geeks who he's a rock star to. Almost a 1/3 of americans can't name the VP, so where is some stats geek with a political website going to be of interest to most people.
 
2012-12-05 05:23:57 PM  

Jackson Herring: [i.imgur.com image 400x300]


Holy shiat, that mustache makes him look even creepier. I didn't think that was possible.
 
2012-12-05 05:48:46 PM  

dletter: The poll showed that 12 percent have a favorable opinion of him, while 10 percent view him unfavorably. But a whopping 77 percent said they aren't sure about Silver.

This is really the issue.

For as much as Nate Silver became a "rock star" this past election... it was really only political geeks who he's a rock star to. Almost a 1/3 of americans can't name the VP, so where is some stats geek with a political website going to be of interest to most people.


And baseball junkies. (there is a statistically meaningful overlap between the two groups...)

Being a political junkie I understand how world cup fans must feel - there's only an interesting contest every couple of years, and even if you're just interested in the strategies and stats of the game, half the population wants to kill you because they think you're rooting for the "other team".
 
2012-12-05 06:18:38 PM  
People are idiots.

Hell, half of all Republicans polled said that ACORN stole the election from Romney.

Yes, THAT ACORN...the one that no longer exists.
 
2012-12-05 06:22:37 PM  
they had mitt romney chia pets on sale at kmart, but they were the same price as obama chia pets
 
2012-12-05 06:24:23 PM  

Lionel Mandrake: Yes, THAT ACORN...the one that no longer exists.


That merely proves how deep this thing goes.
 
2012-12-05 06:24:34 PM  
Weren't there about 28% of Americans still approving of W's job in October of 2008?
 
2012-12-05 06:26:23 PM  

Uranus Is Huge!: Weren't there about 28% of Americans still approving of W's job in October of 2008?


I think 28% of Americans still think he's president

/I admit, that's a subtle distinction, though
 
2012-12-05 06:27:42 PM  
Nate Silver, as good as he is, isn't a pollster.
Granted, he uses the full range of polling data than anyone before he got onto the scene... but he sure as hell isn't the one creating that polling data.
Gallup needs to get their shiat together. No polling group gets work if they can't get things right.
 
2012-12-05 06:33:13 PM  
That's about the same number that would like to see Dick Cheney as president... so it's not really surprising.
 
2012-12-05 06:34:54 PM  
I can get you some great seats to Romney's Inauguration. Front row...only $300... Apiece.

You dont wanta miss it!
 
2012-12-05 06:36:21 PM  
Good. I'll win another $400 bucks in 2016 off them suckers. Thanks, Nate!
 
2012-12-05 06:40:28 PM  
Individual choices may be incorrect but the amalgamation (Gallup poll) of all the choices is probably more accurate.

The amalgamation of the almagamations (Silver's work) is probably more accurate than the amalgamation of all the choices.

Now if we could get a pile of Silvers together....
 
2012-12-05 06:47:20 PM  

Jiro Dreams Of McRibs: Now if we could get a pile of Silvers together....


I think about 30 pieces should do for the Iscariots in the room.
 
2012-12-05 06:48:38 PM  
Americans love brand names. Gallup is a brand name that they've known and used for longer than they've used McDonald's.

Silver may be more accurate, but he's like Morgan Spurlock: it's going to take awhile to unseat the grand old man of the establishment.

Besides...relatively speaking, Silver is just some punk kid. Yes, two elections called is incredibly impressive, but his 2010 record, his experiment in Britain, and his attempts to get the House were all lousy. At least as lousy as Gallup did this time around.

If he keeps it up, then in 20-25 years you would be a fool to take Gallup over him. But other groups are going to see his results and adapt. Or die. My guess is, Gallup will be 1-2 cycles behind him, but then they'll be just as accurate as he is, because it's not like what he's doing is especially difficult. It's just time consuming. If Jerry Wang can do it while also holding down a full-time professorship at Princeton, Gallup, the oldest name in US political polling, can also do it. People know that. That's what this poll reflects, I'm betting.
 
2012-12-05 06:49:18 PM  
i566.photobucket.com
 
2012-12-05 06:50:46 PM  
Most Americans don't even vote. Why would they know or care about a political statistician?
 
2012-12-05 06:51:49 PM  
I'm not sure these people understand that pollsters merely predict how an election is going to go.

Once that election has happened, nobody gives a shirt about who detractors trust.

The election happened...somebody won, somebody lost. Somebody was right, somebody was wrong.

Obama won. Romney lost.
Nate Silver was right. Gallup was wrong.

That's the way it goes.
 
2012-12-05 06:53:27 PM  

mrshowrules: "Gallup" has become a trusted (or at least a well-known) brand when it comes to polling. For many in the general public, Silver has only been on the landscape for about 4 years. Maybe even the last election was the only time they heard about him.

There is nothing surprising in this article IMHO. However, the political junkies in Fark threads would be stupid if they put more weight today behind a Gallup poll than a prediction from Silver.


I was about to say I've long regarded Gallup as "just as bad as Rasmussen." But the reality is, I knew Gallup's GOP bias long before I'd even heard of Rasmussen. I should say Rasmussen is just as bad as Gallup.

It's good we now have some way to objectively prove them wrong now. Certainly no informed person thinks of Gallup as a credible pollster anymore. Reality based polling and poll aggregation will supplant Gallup's faith-based methods.
 
2012-12-05 06:54:02 PM  
www.rumproast.com 

...I believe it shut down at approximately 12:01 PM PST
 
2012-12-05 07:02:13 PM  

MaudlinMutantMollusk: Marcus Aurelius: FlashHarry: i'd wager far more americans know galllup than nate silver. it's name recognition, nothing more.

^ This. I'd wager than less than 50% of Americans could tell you who Nate Silver is.

Wasn't he in that old Sgt. Bilko show?


No you're thinking ig "McHales navy: the wacky hijinks of an NBA player on board a PT boat"
 
2012-12-05 07:05:37 PM  
These people are probably old and do not know who Nate Silver is.
 
2012-12-05 07:05:49 PM  
So just wondering, when do Gallup and Rasmussen finally get outed as being a bunch of right-leaning biased bullshiat and tossed onto the scrap heap? Next election?

Why should they be making as much money as they do when they're clearly just right-wing tools?
 
2012-12-05 07:08:14 PM  
Gallup should do a poll to find out how many people still trust Gallup.

Yo dawg...
 
2012-12-05 07:09:36 PM  
Ask someone what WWF stands for and see what they say

It is about recognition. Silver has just come into his own while Gallup has been here for a while now
 
2012-12-05 07:16:49 PM  
Meh. He's of slight build and a little effeminate. I don't trust him. I prefer my poll watchers thickset and flanneled, with a strong aroma of spruce.
 
2012-12-05 07:30:05 PM  
moving to omaha a few years back seems to have filled gallup with a bad case of derp
 
2012-12-05 07:31:49 PM  
47% of Romney voters potato on Friday night.
 
2012-12-05 07:39:20 PM  
When I was a young boy I had a dog. He was my age in fact; purchased the year I was born. I developed an (in retrospect) alarming habit of imitating his behavior. Not only have I consumed copious amounts of toilet water, after seeing him chewing on the windowsills of our apartment. I don't know what sort of chemicals a painted windowsill contains, but I know I ate much more of it than an eight year old should. Not to mention the other chemicals whose entry into my system couldn't be blamed on the dog (it's not my joint, ma, I was just holding it for the dog!).

Now I'm a grown man. I have an IQ of over 140, a full bookshelf, and a steady job. And honestly, I have no idea how people can be that stupid.

And worse, I haven't developed a reliable means by which to profit from it!
 
2012-12-05 07:50:15 PM  
Survey about people's opinion they don't tell pollsters that they don't know what they thing about what they don't know.

Film at eleven.
 
2012-12-05 08:02:29 PM  

mittromneysdog: Certainly no informed person thinks of Gallup as a credible pollster anymore.


And yet, that is EXACTLY why every infromed person takes Gallup's polls as gospel.
 
2012-12-05 08:05:38 PM  
Surely the first questions should be "Are you aware of Gallup?" and "Are you aware of Nate Silver?", and the subsequent questions only asked to those that answer yes to both.

It's like asking someone who doesn't watch XFactor "Who do you think will win, [contestant name] or Madonna?". I imagine that the American public would believe Madonna, because it isn't a knowledged based answer, it's a name recognition answer. Which needs nothing (unless you're surveying for name recognition or "popularity").
 
2012-12-05 08:09:13 PM  

Bungles: it's a name recognition answer.


McDonald's is name recognition. Their burgers kind of suck.
However, 538 is a tasty burger. Are you saying you still "trust" McDonald's?
 
2012-12-05 08:12:16 PM  

Jackson Herring: [i.imgur.com image 400x300]


Kudos. That is great.
 
2012-12-05 08:15:22 PM  
According to UnskewedPolls Sarah Connor was the most popular baby name from 1984 to August 29th, 1997.
 
2012-12-05 08:19:12 PM  
Yo dawg, I herd you like polls, so I'm discounting the value of polling in your thread about the value of polling!
 
2012-12-05 08:24:16 PM  

cman: Ask someone what WWF stands for and see what they say


ummmm...pandas.
 
2012-12-05 08:28:10 PM  

MaudlinMutantMollusk: Uranus Is Huge!: Weren't there about 28% of Americans still approving of W's job in October of 2008?

I think 28% of Americans still think he's president

/I admit, that's a subtle distinction, though


Bush's approval rating in January 2009, Nixon's approval rating before he resigned, and Hoover's approval rating in early 1932? All the same 25%, plus or minus a few percent.

From which one can only conclude that 25% of the country have crippling mental problems.
 
2012-12-05 08:33:45 PM  

heap: cman: Ask someone what WWF stands for and see what they say

ummmm...pandas.


...hitting one another with folding chairs
 
2012-12-05 08:43:50 PM  

cman: Ask someone what WWF stands for and see what they say

It is about recognition. Silver has just come into his own while Gallup has been here for a while now


Words With Friends?
World Wide Fund for nature?
World Wrestling Federation?
Wil Wheaton Fans?
Wang Whacking Farkers?
 
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