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(Salon)   Nate Silver: Politico is dumb   (salon.com) divider line 33
    More: Amusing, Bill Simmons, politicos, passive-aggressive  
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8338 clicks; posted to Politics » on 30 Nov 2012 at 4:57 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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Archived thread
2012-11-30 07:41:47 PM
4 votes:

mksmith: Lionel Mandrake: The Stealth Hippopotamus: 14:59

[i159.photobucket.com image 600x450]

Buy a few cases - Nate Silver will be around for a looooooong time.

Which means we have to remember: When the GOP comes up with a candidate who can beat the Democratic candidate (hopefully after my lifetime . . .), Nate will report on that event just as accurately as he has in the past two elections. In which case, we can depend on the conservatives to chortle, but I do hope the liberals will have more sense -- and class -- than to bad-mouth the messenger.


Judging by what we saw after the debates this year, I don't think that'll be a problem.

sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net
2012-11-30 09:35:40 PM
3 votes:

starsrift: Again, I question: As his fame of accuracy grows, his own data has the potential to skew the election since people behave differently when the outcome seems certain. How can he ethically continue to do what he does?


when presenting reality is considered unethical, you've bent ethics to a point of absurdity.
2012-11-30 09:00:56 PM
3 votes:

roc6783: Now could his model be a basis for further analysis to help direct a campaign earlier in the process and on a much more targeted scale? Sure, but what the hell good does it do a candidate to know a week before the election, who is going to win? If that doesn't help anything, why would Silver have any interest in trying to skew the results, rather than have the most accurate model possible?


Because Republicans/Conservatives assume that Nate Silver is an operative of the Democratic Party, a Liberal, a Communist, ect. because he reported figures that said Obama was in the lead by a healthy margin and Democrats would keep the Senate.

They assumed this was automatically Democratic propaganda, paid for and coordinated by the DNC for purely partisan reasons.

The idea that an independent pollster would produce polls based on observable reality and not a specific partisan agenda was something they couldn't comprehend. Their rebuttal to Nate Silver was just to point to UnSkewed Polls and go "see, we have numbers that say WE'RE going to win!" and act like that was a perfectly acceptable and valid rebuttal.

They are so detached from reality it's scary. Nothing short of the massive drubbing in the polls they took on November 6th could have possibly got through to them, and even then a lot of them seen reality-immune (see the conspiracy theories about Black Panthers intimidating voters, or the ludicrous idea that President Obama won over 100% of the registered voters in some states due to blatant voter fraud). The idea they actually just outright fairly lost an election doesn't even cross their minds. They assume it must be fraud, because they can NEVER lose an election, since they believe that they are chosen by God and reflect what the vast majority of Real Americans wants.
2012-11-30 06:09:00 PM
3 votes:
Nate Silver is a prophet of reality. He may fail eventually, but the advantages of objective analysis will live on.
2012-11-30 05:02:20 PM
3 votes:

The Stealth Hippopotamus: 14:59


No way. We're still reading about Joe the Plumber a couple times a year. Nate Silver couldn't go away now if he wanted to.
2012-11-30 01:54:27 PM
3 votes:
Yes. Yes it is. His reporting on politics like sports analogy is pretty good (and one of the worst aspects of the current media as a whole).
2012-11-30 01:52:11 PM
3 votes:
Nate Silver is correct again.
2012-11-30 11:24:32 PM
2 votes:

starsrift: Unskewed didn't lie, he just used an inappropriately small dataset.



No, he skewed datasets to say what he thought they should say. That's as close one gets to lying with statistics.
2012-11-30 10:26:23 PM
2 votes:
I see why Nate's pissed. You could see the beltway media winding up for a chorus of "Haw haw!! Silver blew it! Now we never have to take him seriously again!! That'll teach you to harsh our horserace buzz!".

My thought at the time was, "Oh, now you guys believe in accountability? That's new". I remember there being a pretty strong inverse relationship between a pundit's rightness on the Iraq war and the number of appearances that said pundits got on TV. I mean, Bill Kristol, Tom Friedman, and John McCain pretty much had a cot and hot plate set up for them in network green rooms. Meanwhile, the people who had suggested from the start that the war was a bad idea couldn't get on TV if their life depended on it.
2012-11-30 07:41:40 PM
2 votes:

StreetlightInTheGhetto: goatleggedfellow: Nate Silver is a prophet of reality. He may fail eventually, but the advantages of objective analysis will live on.

He's not a freaking prophet.

I get your point ("of reality") but if NOTHING else, if maybe a few people can start to simply understand the work that he (and a few others) did, maybe, just maybe, those people will also start to question BS punditry, forced black and white debates devoid of any nuance, talking heads never being held accountable for their no better than a coin flip "analysis" (on the contrary, having their opinions still sought out...), etc.

He's not a witch either.

/probably not a witch


FTFY
2012-11-30 05:13:53 PM
2 votes:
After crunching the numbers, there's a 98% chance that Nate Silver is right.
2012-11-30 04:26:43 PM
2 votes:
Repurposed (stolen) from the last Nate Silver thread:

Creates stats to better analyze baseball, gets told to go back to the nerdery. Creates stats to better analyze political polls, gets told to go back to baseball. Goes back to baseball, gets told to go back to politics.

Just needs to submit a paper to the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, gets told to go back to blogging, goes back to blogging, people tell him to go back to looking at math equations.

Bill James inherits the earth.
2012-12-01 01:34:11 PM
1 votes:

Krieghund: common sense is an oxymoron: Is it lying if you believe in your delusion?

Apparently it is if you're the UN ambassador.



That's so 2006...

1.bp.blogspot.com
2012-12-01 03:08:43 AM
1 votes:

GAT_00: Kevin72: Bacontastesgood: GAT_00: Politico never really has recovered from Hillary losing.

I NEED FREAKING CHEESECAKE
JUST WHEN I MANAGED TO LOOSE 5 POUNDS FROM MY BUTT

I AM SICK OF THIS STUPID MEN WORLD,,DNC,,AND OBAMAS FEVER

Loose? Loose? You loosened 5 pounds from your butt? Did you loosen it with a wrench? If you turned it in the other direction would you have tightened it? Just wondering.

It's a sad day for Fark that HillaryIs44 has passed into obscurity.


No it's not. Cheer up. Even though Hillary loosed to Obama in 2008, look forward to 2016. HillaryWillBe45.com.
2012-11-30 11:22:13 PM
1 votes:

Bacontastesgood: GAT_00: Politico never really has recovered from Hillary losing.

I NEED FREAKING CHEESECAKE
JUST WHEN I MANAGED TO LOOSE 5 POUNDS FROM MY BUTT

I AM SICK OF THIS STUPID MEN WORLD,,DNC,,AND OBAMAS FEVER


Loose? Loose? You loosened 5 pounds from your butt? Did you loosen it with a wrench? If you turned it in the other direction would you have tightened it? Just wondering.
2012-11-30 11:07:45 PM
1 votes:

WizardofToast: The Stealth Hippopotamus: 14:59


14:59/538. Lots of bites. But Nate will be Big Nate more or less forever.
2012-11-30 11:04:13 PM
1 votes:

starsrift: That's precisely the ethical issue involved. Silver is not presenting reality, he's making a statistical prediction. And people, like you just admitted, might take it to be reality.


He isn't doing anything unethical. All he says is "I think Candidate X will win, and I think the probability of this being correct is Y%" People can choose to vote as they will. He isn't forcing people to vote a certain way. If they choose to vote base don his analysis, that is their choice. A campaign surrogate urging you to vote for his guy is doing more to actually influence your vote, and I seriously doubt anyone accuses a campaign speech of being an unethical attempt to sway the election - unless you are suggesting that all campaigns should studiously avoid any attempt to sway the electorate, up to and including giving out the name, gender, political party, and age of the candidate.
2012-11-30 10:32:23 PM
1 votes:
I asked if you prefer the ethics of a liar. Your answer:

starsrift: But to address your point more holistically, yes


You're welcome to him. I'll stick with the truth.

Oh, and as for unskewedpolls not lying, note that their EV projection went from an overwhelming Romney victory to a narrow Romney victory overnight. The data didn't change that drastically in such a short period of time. He lied.
2012-11-30 09:37:05 PM
1 votes:

qorkfiend: starsrift: Again, I question: As his fame of accuracy grows, his own data has the potential to skew the election since people behave differently when the outcome seems certain. How can he ethically continue to do what he does?

I don't see how aggregating poll data and reporting the results is in any way unethical.


The question also assumes that a large portion of the population follows politics (they don't) and has any idea who Nate Silver is (even fewer).

I'd speculate that if Nate has any actual effect, the folks on both sides who see a Silver report will be equally inclined to not go to the polls - "why bother, Nate says my guy's going to win" vs "why bother, Nate says my guy's going to lose."

But it's not an ethics issue.
2012-11-30 06:51:33 PM
1 votes:
The bottom line is political punditry is nothing more than commentary -- it's just opinion, no facts.

Nate Silver threatens everyone who makes a living by offering their "expert" intuition on politics because he points out how they are objectively wrong.

I also love how Politico doesn't even do its own analysis of polling data -- they just reprint RCP's averages.
2012-11-30 06:47:30 PM
1 votes:

timujin: The Stealth Hippopotamus: 14:59

Damn Poe's Law. I can't tell anymore if someone is being facetious or if they're just stupid.


Judging by the rest of TSH's posts, the latter.
2012-11-30 05:36:04 PM
1 votes:

impaler: falcon176: this thread lacks screenshots of that big anti nate silver page that was online for nearly 8 hours before it was taken down

[growlersoftware.com image 850x782]


i.imgur.com
2012-11-30 05:18:03 PM
1 votes:

God-is-a-Taco: Politico lost with its 2011 "Lie of the Year" gambit to appear "fair" to the teatards.

That ship sailed long ago.


That was PolitiFact, a website run by the Tampa Bay Times. Not related to Politico, a DC-area blog.
2012-11-30 05:15:31 PM
1 votes:

God-is-a-Taco: Politico lost with its 2011 "Lie of the Year" gambit to appear "fair" to the teatards.

That ship sailed long ago.


I go back and forth on Politico as to whether on not they are functionally retarded. On one had their writing and editing would point to yes. On the other hand, it takes a Beautiful Mind to come up with the false equivalencies they do.
2012-11-30 05:14:50 PM
1 votes:
I agree. They recently hired a high school classmate of mine; this myopic "Israel should be at the forefront of America's foreign policy" girl whose writing has not improved since the high school paper, even after 4 years at Northwestern.
2012-11-30 05:12:57 PM
1 votes:
Politico lost with its 2011 "Lie of the Year" gambit to appear "fair" to the teatards.

That ship sailed long ago.
2012-11-30 05:08:29 PM
1 votes:

falcon176: this thread lacks screenshots of that big anti nate silver page that was online for nearly 8 hours before it was taken down


growlersoftware.com
2012-11-30 05:04:42 PM
1 votes:
this thread lacks screenshots of that big anti nate silver page that was online for nearly 8 hours before it was taken down
2012-11-30 05:00:44 PM
1 votes:
Nate Silver and everyone else with double-digit numbers of functioning neurons: Politico is dumb

Edited for accuracy
2012-11-30 05:00:37 PM
1 votes:

timujin: The Stealth Hippopotamus: 14:59

Damn Poe's Law. I can't tell anymore if someone is being facetious or if they're just stupid.


If it helps, that login doesn't do facetious.
2012-11-30 04:28:06 PM
1 votes:

The Stealth Hippopotamus: 14:59


i159.photobucket.com

Buy a few cases - Nate Silver will be around for a looooooong time.
2012-11-30 03:20:10 PM
1 votes:
He didn't call them "dumb". He called them "noise" which is much worse I think.
2012-11-30 02:54:16 PM
1 votes:

BSABSVR: Yes. Yes it is. His reporting on politics like sports analogy is pretty good (and one of the worst aspects of the current media as a whole).


It's an insult to sport. Hell, it's an insult to Joe Buck.
 
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