mksmith: Lionel Mandrake: The Stealth Hippopotamus: 14:59[i159.photobucket.com image 600x450]Buy a few cases - Nate Silver will be around for a looooooong time.Which means we have to remember: When the GOP comes up with a candidate who can beat the Democratic candidate (hopefully after my lifetime . . .), Nate will report on that event just as accurately as he has in the past two elections. In which case, we can depend on the conservatives to chortle, but I do hope the liberals will have more sense -- and class -- than to bad-mouth the messenger.
starsrift: Again, I question: As his fame of accuracy grows, his own data has the potential to skew the election since people behave differently when the outcome seems certain. How can he ethically continue to do what he does?
roc6783: Now could his model be a basis for further analysis to help direct a campaign earlier in the process and on a much more targeted scale? Sure, but what the hell good does it do a candidate to know a week before the election, who is going to win? If that doesn't help anything, why would Silver have any interest in trying to skew the results, rather than have the most accurate model possible?
The Stealth Hippopotamus: 14:59
starsrift: Unskewed didn't lie, he just used an inappropriately small dataset.
StreetlightInTheGhetto: goatleggedfellow: Nate Silver is a prophet of reality. He may fail eventually, but the advantages of objective analysis will live on.He's not a freaking prophet.I get your point ("of reality") but if NOTHING else, if maybe a few people can start to simply understand the work that he (and a few others) did, maybe, just maybe, those people will also start to question BS punditry, forced black and white debates devoid of any nuance, talking heads never being held accountable for their no better than a coin flip "analysis" (on the contrary, having their opinions still sought out...), etc.He's not a witch either./probably not a witch
Krieghund: common sense is an oxymoron: Is it lying if you believe in your delusion?Apparently it is if you're the UN ambassador.
GAT_00: Kevin72: Bacontastesgood: GAT_00: Politico never really has recovered from Hillary losing.I NEED FREAKING CHEESECAKEJUST WHEN I MANAGED TO LOOSE 5 POUNDS FROM MY BUTTI AM SICK OF THIS STUPID MEN WORLD,,DNC,,AND OBAMAS FEVERLoose? Loose? You loosened 5 pounds from your butt? Did you loosen it with a wrench? If you turned it in the other direction would you have tightened it? Just wondering.It's a sad day for Fark that HillaryIs44 has passed into obscurity.
Bacontastesgood: GAT_00: Politico never really has recovered from Hillary losing.I NEED FREAKING CHEESECAKEJUST WHEN I MANAGED TO LOOSE 5 POUNDS FROM MY BUTTI AM SICK OF THIS STUPID MEN WORLD,,DNC,,AND OBAMAS FEVER
WizardofToast: The Stealth Hippopotamus: 14:59
starsrift: That's precisely the ethical issue involved. Silver is not presenting reality, he's making a statistical prediction. And people, like you just admitted, might take it to be reality.
starsrift: But to address your point more holistically, yes
qorkfiend: starsrift: Again, I question: As his fame of accuracy grows, his own data has the potential to skew the election since people behave differently when the outcome seems certain. How can he ethically continue to do what he does?I don't see how aggregating poll data and reporting the results is in any way unethical.
timujin: The Stealth Hippopotamus: 14:59Damn Poe's Law. I can't tell anymore if someone is being facetious or if they're just stupid.
impaler: falcon176: this thread lacks screenshots of that big anti nate silver page that was online for nearly 8 hours before it was taken down[growlersoftware.com image 850x782]
God-is-a-Taco: Politico lost with its 2011 "Lie of the Year" gambit to appear "fair" to the teatards.That ship sailed long ago.
falcon176: this thread lacks screenshots of that big anti nate silver page that was online for nearly 8 hours before it was taken down
BSABSVR: Yes. Yes it is. His reporting on politics like sports analogy is pretty good (and one of the worst aspects of the current media as a whole).
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