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(Salon)   Nate Silver: Politico is dumb   (salon.com) divider line 107
    More: Amusing, Bill Simmons, politicos, passive-aggressive  
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8343 clicks; posted to Politics » on 30 Nov 2012 at 4:57 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-12-01 03:46:31 PM
Nate Silver:

- 2008: predicted 50 out of 50 states correctly.

- 2012: predicted 50 out of 50 states correctly.

Deal with it.
 
2012-12-01 04:23:59 PM

Goodfella: Nate Silver:

- 2008: predicted 50 out of 50 states correctly.

- 2012: predicted 50 out of 50 states correctly.

Deal with it.


IIRC, he got 48 and 4/5ths right in 2008. Indiana and Nebraska's 2nd district were both slightly leaning McCain, and went for Obama by the tiniest of margins.

Which to me just emphasizes that he doesn't really "call" states at all, he simply calculates probabilities. The % at which you consider a vote to be "called" for the favorite is an exercise for the reader.
 
2012-12-01 04:47:30 PM
Is the img1.fark.net tag on vacation today?
 
2012-12-01 07:49:03 PM
Silver took aim at the site, which dismissed him as a "one-term celebrity" in an *article* prior to the election.

Seriously?

*click*

"one term celebrity"

"...highly overrated"

"...he often gives the impression of hedging."

"Prediction is the name of Silver's game, the basis for his celebrity. So should Mitt Romney win on Nov. 6, it's difficult to see how people can continue to put faith in the predictions of someone who has never given that candidate anything higher than a 41 percent chance of winning (way back on June 2) and - one week from the election - gives him a one-in-four chance, even as the polls have him almost neck-and-neck with the incumbent."

Poor Dylan Byers caught out playing the false equivalency game and disingenuously citing the popular polls over the electoral ones in order to make believe in a "close horse race" scenario like the rest of the corporate media and then not even having the decency to admit he was wrong when even Joe "50.1%" Scarborough did.
 
2012-12-01 08:46:00 PM

Ackbarican_Idol: I liked how Salon had to credit Business Insider for the quote, because apparently listening to the farking podcast was too goddamn difficult for them.


Salon used to be an excellent bastion of online journalism. Not so much any more. Slow decline since about 2006, sharp decline since 2011.
 
2012-12-02 03:27:22 AM

starsrift: heap: starsrift: Again, I question: As his fame of accuracy grows, his own data has the potential to skew the election since people behave differently when the outcome seems certain. How can he ethically continue to do what he does?

when presenting reality is considered unethical, you've bent ethics to a point of absurdity.

That's precisely the ethical issue involved. Silver is not presenting reality, he's making a statistical prediction. And people, like you just admitted, might take it to be reality.


I facepalmed. Ouch.
 
2012-12-03 08:23:29 AM

LibertyHiller: redqueenmeg: Tremolo: I agree. They recently hired a high school classmate of mine; this myopic "Israel should be at the forefront of America's foreign policy" girl whose writing has not improved since the high school paper, even after 4 years at Northwestern.

To be fair, many of us did not improve after 4 years at Northwestern.

You must have been in the wrong department. (Checks, smiles knowingly.) I wrote more as a history major than any English majors I knew.

But it's not just the amount, it's the material: the Medilldoes cranked out more lines per year, but 200-word news briefs are not the same thing as 50-page papers.


I edited all my Medill friends' papers. True story.
 
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