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(Salon)   Nate Silver: Politico is dumb   (salon.com) divider line 107
    More: Amusing, Bill Simmons, politicos, passive-aggressive  
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8341 clicks; posted to Politics » on 30 Nov 2012 at 4:57 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-30 01:52:11 PM
Nate Silver is correct again.
 
2012-11-30 01:54:27 PM
Yes. Yes it is. His reporting on politics like sports analogy is pretty good (and one of the worst aspects of the current media as a whole).
 
2012-11-30 01:58:23 PM
Politico is like the Daily Caller only just slightly less dumb.
 
2012-11-30 02:10:19 PM
Politico never really has recovered from Hillary losing.
 
2012-11-30 02:47:26 PM
Was the obvious tag on a pee break?
 
2012-11-30 02:49:13 PM
I agree with Nate, but you don't need a fancy mathematical model to know that anyway.
 
2012-11-30 02:54:16 PM

BSABSVR: Yes. Yes it is. His reporting on politics like sports analogy is pretty good (and one of the worst aspects of the current media as a whole).


It's an insult to sport. Hell, it's an insult to Joe Buck.
 
2012-11-30 03:20:10 PM
He didn't call them "dumb". He called them "noise" which is much worse I think.
 
2012-11-30 03:22:57 PM
Hell of a podcast episode
 
2012-11-30 03:45:54 PM
14:59
 
2012-11-30 03:48:51 PM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: 14:59


Yeah, people really aren't going to care about statistics in politics anymore.
 
2012-11-30 03:53:29 PM
Come on. When has Nate Silver ever been right?
 
2012-11-30 04:26:32 PM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: 14:59


Damn Poe's Law. I can't tell anymore if someone is being facetious or if they're just stupid.
 
2012-11-30 04:26:43 PM
Repurposed (stolen) from the last Nate Silver thread:

Creates stats to better analyze baseball, gets told to go back to the nerdery. Creates stats to better analyze political polls, gets told to go back to baseball. Goes back to baseball, gets told to go back to politics.

Just needs to submit a paper to the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, gets told to go back to blogging, goes back to blogging, people tell him to go back to looking at math equations.

Bill James inherits the earth.
 
2012-11-30 04:28:06 PM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: 14:59


i159.photobucket.com

Buy a few cases - Nate Silver will be around for a looooooong time.
 
2012-11-30 04:44:12 PM

SnakeLee: Hell of a podcast episode


Just got done listening to it, and I must agree.
 
2012-11-30 05:00:37 PM

timujin: The Stealth Hippopotamus: 14:59

Damn Poe's Law. I can't tell anymore if someone is being facetious or if they're just stupid.


If it helps, that login doesn't do facetious.
 
2012-11-30 05:00:44 PM
Nate Silver and everyone else with double-digit numbers of functioning neurons: Politico is dumb

Edited for accuracy
 
2012-11-30 05:02:20 PM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: 14:59


No way. We're still reading about Joe the Plumber a couple times a year. Nate Silver couldn't go away now if he wanted to.
 
2012-11-30 05:03:13 PM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: 14:59


A Sugar Ray fan, eh?
 
2012-11-30 05:04:42 PM
this thread lacks screenshots of that big anti nate silver page that was online for nearly 8 hours before it was taken down
 
2012-11-30 05:05:17 PM

TofuTheAlmighty: Nate Silver and everyone else with double-digit numbers of functioning neurons: Politico is dumb

Edited for accuracy


You give yourself tooooo much credit.
 
2012-11-30 05:06:41 PM

TofuTheAlmighty: Nate Silver and everyone else with double-digit numbers of functioning neurons: Politico is dumb

Edited for accuracy


How many digits are potato?
 
2012-11-30 05:07:39 PM
blogs.scientificamerican.com
 
2012-11-30 05:08:29 PM

falcon176: this thread lacks screenshots of that big anti nate silver page that was online for nearly 8 hours before it was taken down


growlersoftware.com
 
2012-11-30 05:12:57 PM
Politico lost with its 2011 "Lie of the Year" gambit to appear "fair" to the teatards.

That ship sailed long ago.
 
2012-11-30 05:13:53 PM
After crunching the numbers, there's a 98% chance that Nate Silver is right.
 
2012-11-30 05:14:50 PM
I agree. They recently hired a high school classmate of mine; this myopic "Israel should be at the forefront of America's foreign policy" girl whose writing has not improved since the high school paper, even after 4 years at Northwestern.
 
2012-11-30 05:15:31 PM

God-is-a-Taco: Politico lost with its 2011 "Lie of the Year" gambit to appear "fair" to the teatards.

That ship sailed long ago.


I go back and forth on Politico as to whether on not they are functionally retarded. On one had their writing and editing would point to yes. On the other hand, it takes a Beautiful Mind to come up with the false equivalencies they do.
 
2012-11-30 05:16:18 PM

Master of the Flying Guillotine: After crunching the numbers, there's a potato% chance that Nate Silver is right.

 
2012-11-30 05:18:03 PM

God-is-a-Taco: Politico lost with its 2011 "Lie of the Year" gambit to appear "fair" to the teatards.

That ship sailed long ago.


That was PolitiFact, a website run by the Tampa Bay Times. Not related to Politico, a DC-area blog.
 
2012-11-30 05:20:38 PM
Politico is still around? Why?
 
2012-11-30 05:21:54 PM

Tremolo: I agree. They recently hired a high school classmate of mine; this myopic "Israel should be at the forefront of America's foreign policy" girl whose writing has not improved since the high school paper, even after 4 years at Northwestern.


As long as you got the complexion for the connection...
 
2012-11-30 05:22:30 PM
I liked how Salon had to credit Business Insider for the quote, because apparently listening to the farking podcast was too goddamn difficult for them.
 
2012-11-30 05:22:35 PM

mrshowrules: He didn't call them "dumb". He called them "noise" which is much worse I think.


I would say yes, yes it is. If you purposefully choose and/or don't care about accuracy over hype/ratings/punditry/whatever,.. yeah.

/reading Signal and the Noise right now
//most of the actual math/probability lessons aren't anything new to me, but the so far very decent use of applying them to real world situations (with citations a-plenty) is going to be quite useful to me in the near future
///plus it's a pretty good read so far, few minor presentation style quibbles aside
 
2012-11-30 05:25:47 PM

Arkanaut: God-is-a-Taco: Politico lost with its 2011 "Lie of the Year" gambit to appear "fair" to the teatards.

That ship sailed long ago.

That was PolitiFact, a website run by the Tampa Bay Times. Not related to Politico, a DC-area blog.


Whoops, my mistake. Sorry.
Not a fan of either of them, though.

Politico just seems too sassy and well, blog-like. Blogs suck.
 
2012-11-30 05:28:25 PM

Ackbarican_Idol: I liked how Salon had to credit Business Insider for the quote, because apparently listening to the farking podcast was too goddamn difficult for them.


To be fair to Salon, listening to Bill Simmons for more than two minutes, can make you go insane.
 
2012-11-30 05:34:11 PM

Saiga410: You give yourself tooooo much credit.


Greil: How many digits are potato?


TofuTheAlmighty: Nate Silver and everyone else with greater than double-digit numbers of functioning neurons: Politico is dumb


FTFM

/slinks off
 
2012-11-30 05:36:04 PM

impaler: falcon176: this thread lacks screenshots of that big anti nate silver page that was online for nearly 8 hours before it was taken down

[growlersoftware.com image 850x782]


i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-30 05:52:07 PM

sprawl15: impaler: falcon176: this thread lacks screenshots of that big anti nate silver page that was online for nearly 8 hours before it was taken down

[growlersoftware.com image 850x782]

[i.imgur.com image 742x1013]


Hilarious. That was one of the last updates. Not long before that, the dope had Oregon going for Romney.

F*ck, IIRC, he had VERMONT leaning Romney at one point.

And douchebags believed him. Unreal.
 
2012-11-30 05:54:22 PM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: 14:59


at least until 2016. then the clock starts up again.
 
2012-11-30 06:03:38 PM

SilentStrider: SnakeLee: Hell of a podcast episode

Just got done listening to it, and I must agree.


Simmons probably holds the record for the best podcast I've ever heard when he did a two part episode breaking Down the best moments on 90210. I'd never seen much of the show, but I laughed harder than I've ever laughed. I kept turning to my wife and asking "Did that really happen on that show?"

Some of the basketball stuff goes too deep for me, but Simmons is a damned podcast legend.

/just finished the ep
 
2012-11-30 06:09:00 PM
Nate Silver is a prophet of reality. He may fail eventually, but the advantages of objective analysis will live on.
 
2012-11-30 06:09:57 PM
Nate Silver's last known location was in Central America, correcting the Mayan calendar.
 
2012-11-30 06:20:59 PM

ManateeGag: The Stealth Hippopotamus: 14:59

at least until 2016. then the clock starts up again.


2014
 
2012-11-30 06:21:49 PM

goatleggedfellow: Nate Silver is a prophet of reality. He may fail eventually, but the advantages of objective analysis will live on.


The amusing part to me is the characterization of his results as skewed to the left because he was trying to influence the outcome of the election. In baseball, a stat guy creates a metric that is highly correlated with winning and some baseball execs use that data to try to increase their wins. All Silver is doing in politics (I am not trying to downplay the difficulty at all) is aggregating opinion polls. The winner has already been "decided" in the political arena, he is just trying to tease out a winner before the results are already announced.

Now could his model be a basis for further analysis to help direct a campaign earlier in the process and on a much more targeted scale? Sure, but what the hell good does it do a candidate to know a week before the election, who is going to win? If that doesn't help anything, why would Silver have any interest in trying to skew the results, rather than have the most accurate model possible?
 
2012-11-30 06:22:25 PM

goatleggedfellow: Nate Silver is a prophet of reality. He may fail eventually, but the advantages of objective analysis will live on.


He's not a freaking prophet.

I get your point ("of reality") but if NOTHING else, if maybe a few people can start to simply understand the work that he (and a few others) did, maybe, just maybe, those people will also start to question BS punditry, forced black and white debates devoid of any nuance, talking heads never being held accountable for their no better than a coin flip "analysis" (on the contrary, having their opinions still sought out...), etc.

He's not a witch either.

/probably not a witch
 
2012-11-30 06:27:21 PM

roc6783: goatleggedfellow: Nate Silver is a prophet of reality. He may fail eventually, but the advantages of objective analysis will live on.

The amusing part to me is the characterization of his results as skewed to the left because he was trying to influence the outcome of the election. In baseball, a stat guy creates a metric that is highly correlated with winning and some baseball execs use that data to try to increase their wins. All Silver is doing in politics (I am not trying to downplay the difficulty at all) is aggregating opinion polls. The winner has already been "decided" in the political arena, he is just trying to tease out a winner before the results are already announced.

Now could his model be a basis for further analysis to help direct a campaign earlier in the process and on a much more targeted scale? Sure, but what the hell good does it do a candidate to know a week before the election, who is going to win? If that doesn't help anything, why would Silver have any interest in trying to skew the results, rather than have the most accurate model possible?


I didn't really understand that criticism either (I mean, other than a you're making it hard for us to ignore the facts on the ground, dammit!!! stance).

If you need more volunteers, last minute fundraising pushes, if you want people to work their ass off in the last push to the election... how is releasing information that you have a 90%+ chance of winning going to motivate them? I guess saying "the guy who says we're gonna lose is a liberal tool" could motivate your troops, but... not if you follow it up with "we know we're all set and everything is awesome".

Talking about general elections here, not primaries, whole different ball game there...
 
2012-11-30 06:29:10 PM

roc6783: goatleggedfellow: Nate Silver is a prophet of reality. He may fail eventually, but the advantages of objective analysis will live on.

The amusing part to me is the characterization of his results as skewed to the left because he was trying to influence the outcome of the election. In baseball, a stat guy creates a metric that is highly correlated with winning and some baseball execs use that data to try to increase their wins. All Silver is doing in politics (I am not trying to downplay the difficulty at all) is aggregating opinion polls. The winner has already been "decided" in the political arena, he is just trying to tease out a winner before the results are already announced.

Now could his model be a basis for further analysis to help direct a campaign earlier in the process and on a much more targeted scale? Sure, but what the hell good does it do a candidate to know a week before the election, who is going to win? If that doesn't help anything, why would Silver have any interest in trying to skew the results, rather than have the most accurate model possible?


Republicans try to use polling data to drive the vote and influence the election by convincing people they should turn out to support the "winner" so they assume that everybody else is doing it.
 
2012-11-30 06:29:46 PM

TimonC346: SilentStrider: SnakeLee: Hell of a podcast episode

Just got done listening to it, and I must agree.

Simmons probably holds the record for the best podcast I've ever heard when he did a two part episode breaking Down the best moments on 90210. I'd never seen much of the show, but I laughed harder than I've ever laughed. I kept turning to my wife and asking "Did that really happen on that show?"

Some of the basketball stuff goes too deep for me, but Simmons is a damned podcast legend.

/just finished the ep


Simmons can be hit or miss for me. His interview with Nate Silver is excellent, but there's times, like when he wouldn't shut the f*ck up about Charlie Sheen, that I want to strangle him.
 
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