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6706 clicks; posted to Main » on 28 Nov 2012 at 10:28 AM (4 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:    more»

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Guns n' Farkin Roses: When I win, TOTAL FARK FOR EVERYONE!

When I win, TOTAL FARK FOR EVERYONE!
Lottery is tax on people who can't do math. Except, if you do the math, the EV on a ticket for this jackpot (assuming only one winner) is \$3.22, using the odds and payout from this article.

If you have 2 winners, your EV drops \$1.79, still not horrible if you consider that the main value in a lottery ticket is enjoyment and excitement.

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Rvalldrgg: Kinda off topic, but still with all this lottery mumbo-jumbo, wouldn't there be a point where you'd be guaranteed to win the lottery if the jackpot was high enough (to make profit) and if you bought enough tickets? Isn't the overall odds 1 in 176 Million or something? So 176M (exactly for easy maths) x \$3 (price of ticket, or mine at least) would be \$528M, which you'd have to make back that amount after taxes, so how high would that jackpot have to be before taxes? Nearly a billion dollars?

It doesn't work because as the jackpot goes up, the number of tickets purchased goes up, so the odds of there being a second winner also go up.

If you buy every possible ticket you're guaranteed a share of the jackpot, not the whole thing. You have to split it with whoever else has a winning ticket. If there's a second winner, you're at a huge loss.
 1 vote:

Wellon Dowd: Rvalldrgg: Kinda off topic, but still with all this lottery mumbo-jumbo, wouldn't there be a point where you'd be guaranteed to win the lottery if the jackpot was high enough (to make profit) and if you bought enough tickets? Isn't the overall odds 1 in 176 Million or something? So 176M (exactly for easy maths) x \$3 (price of ticket, or mine at least) would be \$528M, which you'd have to make back that amount after taxes, so how high would that jackpot have to be before taxes? Nearly a billion dollars?

Back when Virginia ran its own game with only 44 balls an investor syndicate tried to do that. They ran out of time to cover all the numbers but I think they might have won anyway. The state lottery made certain rule changes to discourage such activity in the future.

Another problem with that strategy is possibly having to share the prize.
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Two words: old people
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rev. dave: I'm more worried about how my life would change for the worse if I won. All I really need is to have 0 debt and I will be much happier.

Money just handed to you has transparent value. You tend to waste it because you didn't earn it. And once you've been handed alot of money, you will find it impossible to ever want to work for a living again.

You only think you're happy. Coming into great wealth can cause a dramatic change in your life. Mostly negative. Especially with family and loved ones.

People around you will hate you. You will never be able to satisfy them.

So get rid of them? you can. And anyone else you meet after that only likes/loves you for your money.
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2 reasons for huge sales in Florida:

1) Its snowbird season, so all the other states multiple income retirees are here, and convinced they need more money

2) FL is still hurting BAD from the recession. Decent jobs are hard to find, foreclosures are still rampant. New home construction is still stagnant...and construction was the mainstay of the FL economy, even more than tourism. Most people here are either unemployed or underemployed...cant blame them for taking a chance.
 1 vote:

MycroftHolmes: Lottery is tax on people who can't do math. Except, if you do the math, the EV on a ticket for this jackpot (assuming only one winner) is \$3.22, using the odds and payout from this article.

If you have 2 winners, your EV drops \$1.79, still not horrible if you consider that the main value in a lottery ticket is enjoyment and excitement.

Well, I would say it's bad for the guy in front of me at the liquor store buying 20 scratch-offs, three airplane bottles of vodak, and a Diet Coke.

I'm not saying my strict booze regimen is superior to his gambling regimen, but I'll probably get more enjoyment from my sixer of Dale's Pale Ale than he will from those scratch-offs... and for half the price.
 1 vote:

tricycleracer: I got a coffee, a muffin, and a quick-pick Powerball ticket this morning at 7-11. It's \$2, BFD.

This.

For the slightest chance at \$500 million I'll piss \$2 away. I'll skip a bag of chips with lunch or something and call it even.
 1 vote:

Rapmaster2000: If you're going to play, you might as well when the payout is highest. Your odds are still the same.

/doesn't play

Not entirely true. On the bigger payouts, there is a greater liklihood that someone will duplicate your winning numbers and dilute the main pot.
 1 vote:
They like to brag about no income tax. They pay Stupidity Tax instead.

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