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(The Big Story)   A graph obtained from an Iranian computer simulation suggests that they are interested in playing a game of Global Thermonuclear War. Or a nice game of chess. Hard to tell, really   (bigstory.ap.org) divider line 27
    More: Scary, nuclear warfare, Iranians, U.S. state abbreviations, Iran, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, International Atomic Energy Agency, uranium enrichment, David Albright  
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4861 clicks; posted to Politics » on 27 Nov 2012 at 4:25 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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Archived thread
2012-11-27 12:55:53 PM  
7 votes:

naughtyrev: A country that does not want to be named provides a graph that I could find in a library as proof of a weapons program. Better send in the marines.


It's more than we had for Iraq.
2012-11-27 01:10:28 PM  
3 votes:
Iranian scientists have run computer simulations for a nuclear weapon that would produce more than triple the explosive force of the World War II bomb that destroyed Hiroshima, according to a diagram obtained by The Associated Press.

There are currently somewhere between 15,000 - 20,000 nuclear weapons in the world, depending on how you define 'weapon'. Between 4,000 - 5,000 are considered 'operational', ie they could be fired at any time.

The US has approximately 2,000 - 3,000 of those. The smallest of which is still 50-60 times larger than the Hiroshima bomb.

If this is true, it's actually more heartening than concerning. It means that after all this time, at best they only have a weak fission bomb. Those are big, temperamental, require large bombers or rockets to be delivered, and tend to be very expensive to maintain. In short, they don't even have it yet, and if they did, it would be more trouble than it's worth.

Call me when they get a hydrogen bomb, a dependable delivery system, and the strategic circumstances where they would have the slightest hope of using it without facing immediate reduction to a self-illuminating glass parking lot.
2012-11-27 12:36:12 PM  
3 votes:
A country that does not want to be named provides a graph that I could find in a library as proof of a weapons program. Better send in the marines.
2012-11-27 05:03:55 PM  
2 votes:

Darth_Lukecash: Then there are guys like Hitler- who decides to farking take down Germany with him.

MacManara noted that Castro was more than willing to start World War III over the Cuban Missle Crises..The Russians held back.

While I understand that smaller countries wanting the great leveler- (north Korea, Iran, and Iraq being called Axis of evil by w Bush, caused them to restart their programs. Especially since W Bush invaded Iran on a cherry picked intel.)

I'm not saying you're wrong: Likely hood it would settle down the region... But there is always the crazy factor in human behavior


If by 'MacManara' you mean 'McNamara', then...kinda. More like, Castro's appraisal of what the US would and wouldn't do was less balanced and intelligent than Kruschev's. As you would expect from someone who was younger, less educated, vastly less experienced, and from a third-rate tropical island, not one of the world's traditional power players.

Yes, it's true that the spectre of a non-rational nuclear player is far more terrifying of a non-rational conventional player. But by the same token, because it is so terrifying, everyone takes it a lot more seriously.
Consider the history of the past 200 years:

1815: International peace-keeping was a joke prior to the Napoleonic Wars. However, after they were finished, the Congress of Vienna set up a system that prevented a major (ie, the Crimea doesn't count) war among the Great Powers (the Franco-Prussian war is more rightly the war of German independence under this view than an inter-power war) for a century.

1918: After the Great War steps were taken to make sure war never happened again. Unfortunately, they added reparations into the mix, thus destabilizing that possibility.

1945: Things Get Nuclear. Enter the UN, followed by a whole host of other letter-based organizations: NATO, WTO, G-20, G-8, etc etc. All more or less aimed at the same thing: to make damn sure that nothing like WWII ever happened again. And it has worked. Instead of border disputes and sparring armies, we get lawsuits in the WTO. No, it's not a perfect system, but by and large it works: pressure is continually eased, and so can never mount into a massive catastrophe.

In short, there's a reason people focus so much on the small crazy exceptions like Best Korea and Ahmadinnerjacket: they're the exceptions now, not the rule. The extreme outliers, even.

Think about it: when was the last time you heard about a symmetrical war, ie a war between two real powers? 1973? Korea? When was the last time two regional powers fought? The last India-Pakistan war?

The only wars these days are 1) internal disputes like Darfur, Rwanda, Bosnia, etc, 2) low-grade insurgencies like FARC, and 3) asymetric conflicts like Afghanistan, Iraq, Ossetia, Sierra Leone, etc. Big wars don't exist, small wars are dying off, and what few insurgencies there are really qualify more as especially violent police actions. The only real difference between Afghanistan and northern Mexico right now is that one involves Muslims and opium and the other involves Zetas and cocaine.
2012-11-27 01:21:22 PM  
2 votes:
It is a tragedy to see so much of nuclear science dedicated to finding new ways to destroy each other. If all of that time and money had been spent researching something useful to mankind, I wonder what advancements we could have made in space by now. Or medicine, or engineering. Hell, why does anyone bother to make/maintain nukes anymore? We as a race have enough conventional weapons to blow us up 100x over already.

History tells us that the parties involved weighed the implications of using atomic bombs heavily before pulling the trigger. Their intention was indeed valid and understandable, but I dare say that they had no idea the kind of Pandora's box they were opening by ending the war a few months sooner.
2012-11-27 01:11:58 PM  
2 votes:
Oh no, Iran is working on 70 year old technology that was hideously difficult to make the first time and not as difficult now as you would think once the basics got worked out.

It is utterly impossible and infeasible to stop Iran from making a nuke. This delusion with stopping them is idiotic and futile.
2012-11-27 01:05:50 PM  
2 votes:

Rev. Skarekroe: That computer was pretty stupid. There's a trick to playing tic-tac-toe where you win every time.


No there isn't. Not one that doesn't involve cheating.

You can not lose every time, though.
2012-11-27 11:27:54 PM  
1 votes:
Someone named muffinpowertop commented:

"I mean seriously, this is embarrassing. That kind of graph could be produced by any graduate level nuclear physicist. Trying to convince people that Iran is developing nuclear weapons because its physics students can do their homework is insulting to the intelligence of your readers.

More to the point, even if this an authentic graph produced by the Iranian government, it is completely useless. Iran can't use it to make a nuclear weapon because it doesn't describe any aspect of the actual design of a nuclear weapon. It's like claiming someone built a cruise ship because they drew a route around the Florida keys on the back of a Denny's place mat.


LULZ
2012-11-27 07:04:05 PM  
1 votes:
The curve peaks at just above 50 kilotons at around 2 microseconds, reflecting the full force of the weapon being modeled.

YOU WENT TO COLLEGE. WHY CAN'T YOU READ A SIMPLE farkING GRAPH.
2012-11-27 05:04:36 PM  
1 votes:
i48.tinypic.com
2012-11-27 05:00:14 PM  
1 votes:

meat0918: Relatively Obscure: Rev. Skarekroe: That computer was pretty stupid. There's a trick to playing tic-tac-toe where you win every time.

No there isn't. Not one that doesn't involve cheating.

You can not lose every time, though.

Correct.

There is a trick to playing were you can win every single time if you're opponent doesn't know the trick you are using. If they know the counter, it's a draw, every single time.

The computer knows the counter moves(or can simulate all possible moves, it isn't a very large set).

Cat's game. Every. Single. Time.


Obviously, you've never watched "Donald Duck in MathMagic Land". Because if you had, you would know the secret to winning at Tic-Tac-Toe
2012-11-27 04:49:40 PM  
1 votes:

Darth_Lukecash: I'm not saying you're wrong: Likely hood it would settle down the region... But there is always the crazy factor in human behavior


Arguably, if this was a big issue then Iran would be continuously firing missiles at Israel. Well, directly doing so with their MRBMs instead of supplying Hamas with shiatty Grad rockets. And again, Pakistan and India went to war quite a bit with each other before they got nukes. The situations aren't that dissimilar.
2012-11-27 04:49:03 PM  
1 votes:

Relatively Obscure: Rev. Skarekroe: That computer was pretty stupid. There's a trick to playing tic-tac-toe where you win every time.

No there isn't. Not one that doesn't involve cheating.

You can not lose every time, though.


Correct.

There is a trick to playing were you can win every single time if you're opponent doesn't know the trick you are using. If they know the counter, it's a draw, every single time.

The computer knows the counter moves(or can simulate all possible moves, it isn't a very large set).

Cat's game. Every. Single. Time.
2012-11-27 04:47:48 PM  
1 votes:

vernonFL: Whats next? A Hindu on the Moon?


A rat done bit my sister अभिलाषा.
(with Kshatriya on the moon)
Her face and arms began to swell.
(and Kshatriya's on the moon)
I can't pay no doctor bill.
(but Kshatriya's on the moon)
Ten years from now I'll be payin' still.
(while Kshatriya's on the moon)
2012-11-27 04:44:44 PM  
1 votes:
Iran has the bell curve! We need to stop them before they develop Stochastic processes and drop a sensitivity analysis on the feasible region of Monte Carlo.
2012-11-27 04:39:02 PM  
1 votes:
It is difficult to keep 60 year old technology from people who really want it.

Did you hear? The Chinese just landed an airplane on a ship.

Whats next? A Hindu on the Moon?
2012-11-27 03:56:10 PM  
1 votes:
The diagram was leaked by officials from a country critical of Iran's atomic program to bolster their arguments that Iran's nuclear program must be halted before it produces a weapon. The officials provided the diagram only on condition that they and their country not be named.

israel
2012-11-27 03:54:19 PM  
1 votes:
binaryapi.ap.org

Boy, Iranian scientists suck.

That power density function produces over 2,200,000 kT of energy, not 50. That's not triple Big Boy, that's 137,000 Big Boys.

Or 22 Tsar Bombs.

Corrected graph:
growlersoftware.com
2012-11-27 03:31:26 PM  
1 votes:
An interesting politics thread. The only winning move is not to post.
2012-11-27 03:15:16 PM  
1 votes:

Fark It: The undated diagram that was given to the AP by officials of a country critical of Iran's atomic program allegedly calculating the explosive force of a nuclear weapon _ a key step in developing such arms. The diagram shows a bell curve and has variables of time in micro-seconds and power and energy, both in kilotons _ the traditional measurement of the energy output, and hence the destructive power of nuclear weapons.

People actually believe this dreck? Those officials were Israelis or their lackeys in Washington feeding propaganda to Western media outlets. This is information that any physics major or military is going to have access to and be obligated to know and have written down. Why wouldn't Iran be looking at how powerful nuclear blasts are? I'm embarrassed that the bar is so low for warmongering propaganda. Neocons, this is what your masters think of you. This is what they think you're stupid enough to be baited by.

Pitiful....


It could just have likely been the Saudis or Bahrain both of who have major reservations about a nuclear Iran.

/just saying there are more actors in the pictures
2012-11-27 02:46:54 PM  
1 votes:
Remember when Iran's missile program got a hold of Photoshop?

Looks like their nuclear program just got Matlab.
2012-11-27 02:19:16 PM  
1 votes:
Wow, looks like someone plotted the integral of a normal distribution along with a normal distribution.

FYI Iranian scientists, I believe power output for nuclear detonation has a positive skew. Now redo the problem and assume it's on a train heading east at 30 mph. Show your work.


www.fas.org
ed-thelen.org
2012-11-27 02:16:11 PM  
1 votes:

Ennuipoet: GAT_00: What cost a significant fraction of the resources of the most advanced country for several years 70 years ago can easily be done relatively cheaply. Probably $250M would do it.

Indeed, the hard part about nuclear weapons is reliable delivery systems. Building a bomb is not hard, putting those bombs on things that fly accurately to their destination and explode is a bit harder. Of course, if you just want to put your bomb on a boat and sail it into a harbor and have a martyr flip the switch...


What made our first bombs so bad was the inability to model them. It's relatively easy to build computer models these days for nukes, so you don't have to rely on huge Hiroshima-style weapons that waste almost all of their energy. The first Iranian bomb probably won't fit into a MRBM, but they could get there in a few years. Testing still helps quite a bit - you can only model so much without experience.
2012-11-27 02:00:23 PM  
1 votes:
The curve peaks at just above 50 kilotons 1.7E13 kT/sec at around 2 microseconds,

That curve is power, not energy.
2012-11-27 01:00:25 PM  
1 votes:

Rev. Skarekroe: That computer was pretty stupid. There's a trick to playing tic-tac-toe where you win every time.


The only winning move is not to play.
2012-11-27 12:54:02 PM  
1 votes:
Oh no! They have a graph! A graph they could have pulled from any physics textbook! RUN FOR YOUR LIVES THEY HAVE GRAPH MAGIC THEY WILL USE THEIR GRAPH WIZARDS TO DRESROY OUR FAMILESIN POH MY GID WEIHREN GOIUNBG TO DIE!E!!#!WEDUUJ!!!
2012-11-27 12:40:37 PM  
1 votes:
Just wait until they see the graphs on Wikipedia. Those guys are working on everything.
 
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