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(The Big Story)   A graph obtained from an Iranian computer simulation suggests that they are interested in playing a game of Global Thermonuclear War. Or a nice game of chess. Hard to tell, really   (bigstory.ap.org) divider line 150
    More: Scary, nuclear warfare, Iranians, U.S. state abbreviations, Iran, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, International Atomic Energy Agency, uranium enrichment, David Albright  
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4861 clicks; posted to Politics » on 27 Nov 2012 at 4:25 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-27 12:36:12 PM
A country that does not want to be named provides a graph that I could find in a library as proof of a weapons program. Better send in the marines.
 
2012-11-27 12:40:37 PM
Just wait until they see the graphs on Wikipedia. Those guys are working on everything.
 
2012-11-27 12:49:50 PM
That computer was pretty stupid. There's a trick to playing tic-tac-toe where you win every time.
 
2012-11-27 12:54:02 PM
Oh no! They have a graph! A graph they could have pulled from any physics textbook! RUN FOR YOUR LIVES THEY HAVE GRAPH MAGIC THEY WILL USE THEIR GRAPH WIZARDS TO DRESROY OUR FAMILESIN POH MY GID WEIHREN GOIUNBG TO DIE!E!!#!WEDUUJ!!!
 
2012-11-27 12:55:53 PM

naughtyrev: A country that does not want to be named provides a graph that I could find in a library as proof of a weapons program. Better send in the marines.


It's more than we had for Iraq.
 
2012-11-27 01:00:25 PM

Rev. Skarekroe: That computer was pretty stupid. There's a trick to playing tic-tac-toe where you win every time.


The only winning move is not to play.
 
2012-11-27 01:05:50 PM

Rev. Skarekroe: That computer was pretty stupid. There's a trick to playing tic-tac-toe where you win every time.


No there isn't. Not one that doesn't involve cheating.

You can not lose every time, though.
 
2012-11-27 01:10:28 PM
Iranian scientists have run computer simulations for a nuclear weapon that would produce more than triple the explosive force of the World War II bomb that destroyed Hiroshima, according to a diagram obtained by The Associated Press.

There are currently somewhere between 15,000 - 20,000 nuclear weapons in the world, depending on how you define 'weapon'. Between 4,000 - 5,000 are considered 'operational', ie they could be fired at any time.

The US has approximately 2,000 - 3,000 of those. The smallest of which is still 50-60 times larger than the Hiroshima bomb.

If this is true, it's actually more heartening than concerning. It means that after all this time, at best they only have a weak fission bomb. Those are big, temperamental, require large bombers or rockets to be delivered, and tend to be very expensive to maintain. In short, they don't even have it yet, and if they did, it would be more trouble than it's worth.

Call me when they get a hydrogen bomb, a dependable delivery system, and the strategic circumstances where they would have the slightest hope of using it without facing immediate reduction to a self-illuminating glass parking lot.
 
2012-11-27 01:11:58 PM
Oh no, Iran is working on 70 year old technology that was hideously difficult to make the first time and not as difficult now as you would think once the basics got worked out.

It is utterly impossible and infeasible to stop Iran from making a nuke. This delusion with stopping them is idiotic and futile.
 
2012-11-27 01:16:08 PM

GAT_00: Oh no, Iran is working on 70 year old technology that was hideously difficult to make the first time and not as difficult now as you would think once the basics got worked out.


I know, I've built three myself using only a Physics text book and some old radium dial watches!
 
2012-11-27 01:21:22 PM
It is a tragedy to see so much of nuclear science dedicated to finding new ways to destroy each other. If all of that time and money had been spent researching something useful to mankind, I wonder what advancements we could have made in space by now. Or medicine, or engineering. Hell, why does anyone bother to make/maintain nukes anymore? We as a race have enough conventional weapons to blow us up 100x over already.

History tells us that the parties involved weighed the implications of using atomic bombs heavily before pulling the trigger. Their intention was indeed valid and understandable, but I dare say that they had no idea the kind of Pandora's box they were opening by ending the war a few months sooner.
 
2012-11-27 01:28:52 PM

Marcus Aurelius: Just wait until they see the graphs on Wikipedia. Those guys are working on everything.


Good point. From wiki:

upload.wikimedia.org
 
2012-11-27 01:44:22 PM

mrshowrules: Marcus Aurelius: Just wait until they see the graphs on Wikipedia. Those guys are working on everything.

Good point. From wiki:

[upload.wikimedia.org image 500x400]


I hope Jimmy Wales has a good air defense system, because the Israelis are going to flatten his office otherwise.
 
2012-11-27 01:54:25 PM

Ennuipoet: GAT_00: Oh no, Iran is working on 70 year old technology that was hideously difficult to make the first time and not as difficult now as you would think once the basics got worked out.

I know, I've built three myself using only a Physics text book and some old radium dial watches!


What cost a significant fraction of the resources of the most advanced country for several years 70 years ago can easily be done relatively cheaply. Probably $250M would do it. Adjusted for inflation, it cost $22B back then, and we used some hideously inefficient methods, not to mention a bomb with far more material than needed.
 
2012-11-27 01:54:27 PM

Marcus Aurelius: mrshowrules: Marcus Aurelius: Just wait until they see the graphs on Wikipedia. Those guys are working on everything.

Good point. From wiki:

[upload.wikimedia.org image 500x400]

I hope Jimmy Wales has a good air defense system, because the Israelis are going to flatten his office otherwise.


Airburst, 10,000 feet. Minimum of 500 kT. Even if the initial blast doesn't get him, the radiation and flash burns will surely do the trick right after. Bonus: the EMP will fry all of his servers and data systems.
 
2012-11-27 02:00:23 PM
The curve peaks at just above 50 kilotons 1.7E13 kT/sec at around 2 microseconds,

That curve is power, not energy.
 
2012-11-27 02:06:07 PM

GAT_00: Ennuipoet: GAT_00: Oh no, Iran is working on 70 year old technology that was hideously difficult to make the first time and not as difficult now as you would think once the basics got worked out.

I know, I've built three myself using only a Physics text book and some old radium dial watches!

What cost a significant fraction of the resources of the most advanced country for several years 70 years ago can easily be done relatively cheaply. Probably $250M would do it. Adjusted for inflation, it cost $22B back then, and we used some hideously inefficient methods, not to mention a bomb with far more material than needed.


upload.wikimedia.org

From the Afterword:

"I was first bemused, then stunned, as my research revealed just how easy such a project [a nuclear bomb] might be today... what required billions of dollars in the 1940s is much less expensive today. A modern PC has far more power and reliability than the first Eniac, and the "hyrdocodes" which enable a computer to test and validate a weapon's design are easily duplicated. The exquisite machine tools used to fabricate parts can be had for the asking. When I asked explicitly for specifications for the very machines used at Oak Ridge and elsewhere, they arrived by FedEx the next day. Some highly specialized items designed specifically for bomb manufacture may noew be found in stereo speakers... a sufficently wealthy individual could, over a period from five to ten years, produce a mulitistage thermonuclear device."

And that was in 1991. Imagine how much easier than that it is today.

Of course, he cheated and gave his terrorists the 'easy' way out: they already had fully refined plutonium. Making that is the only real challenge anymore. Otherwise, it entirely within the manufacturing capacity and financial means of even very minor state actors - say, Ghana, or Vietnam, or Singapore - to make a nuclear weapon. >It's not hard
.

Thankfully, the storage, maintenance, and delivery are very difficult, as is making one that's any small than a soda machine. The first and easiest chokepoint is the actual weapons-grade material, but it's not the only one. And since anyone that wants to make it and has the money cando it, we should focus less on that and more on the other chokepoints inherent in the system: deterrence and containment.
 
2012-11-27 02:08:08 PM
IAEA: Shall we play a game?

Ahmadinnerjacket: Love to. How about Global Thermonuclear War?

IAEA: Wouldn't you prefer a nice game of chess?

Ahmadoobiejam
: Later. Let's play Global Thermonuclear War.

Israel: Fine.


/got nothin' 
 
2012-11-27 02:10:46 PM

GAT_00: What cost a significant fraction of the resources of the most advanced country for several years 70 years ago can easily be done relatively cheaply. Probably $250M would do it.


Indeed, the hard part about nuclear weapons is reliable delivery systems. Building a bomb is not hard, putting those bombs on things that fly accurately to their destination and explode is a bit harder. Of course, if you just want to put your bomb on a boat and sail it into a harbor and have a martyr flip the switch...
 
2012-11-27 02:13:22 PM

whistleridge: From the Afterword:


That did occur to me, but this isn't the same. They were machining an existing bomb, which is even easier. Refining uranium is exceptionally harder. It can't be done chemically, isotopes are chemically identical. Centrifuges work, if you get them spinning hard enough, but it is very slow. It's the cheapest and safest way to get to enriched uranium for a bomb, and what Iran is apparently going for.

There are about a half dozen ways to get a nuclear weapon, including going for uranium bombs and plutonium bombs.

This knowledge is impossible to keep secret. Iran will have a nuke unless they are invaded, which is even dumber than the pointless methods we are doing now.
 
2012-11-27 02:15:32 PM

Relatively Obscure: Rev. Skarekroe: That computer was pretty stupid. There's a trick to playing tic-tac-toe where you win every time.

No there isn't. Not one that doesn't involve cheating.

You can not lose every time, though.


OK, I was exaggerating. But it's a lot easier than the computer who had a tie with every game it played.
 
2012-11-27 02:16:11 PM

Ennuipoet: GAT_00: What cost a significant fraction of the resources of the most advanced country for several years 70 years ago can easily be done relatively cheaply. Probably $250M would do it.

Indeed, the hard part about nuclear weapons is reliable delivery systems. Building a bomb is not hard, putting those bombs on things that fly accurately to their destination and explode is a bit harder. Of course, if you just want to put your bomb on a boat and sail it into a harbor and have a martyr flip the switch...


What made our first bombs so bad was the inability to model them. It's relatively easy to build computer models these days for nukes, so you don't have to rely on huge Hiroshima-style weapons that waste almost all of their energy. The first Iranian bomb probably won't fit into a MRBM, but they could get there in a few years. Testing still helps quite a bit - you can only model so much without experience.
 
2012-11-27 02:19:16 PM
Wow, looks like someone plotted the integral of a normal distribution along with a normal distribution.

FYI Iranian scientists, I believe power output for nuclear detonation has a positive skew. Now redo the problem and assume it's on a train heading east at 30 mph. Show your work.


www.fas.org
ed-thelen.org
 
2012-11-27 02:20:13 PM
Does anyone know if it's common for scientists (especially outside the US) to rate nuclear power in kT/sec?
 
2012-11-27 02:31:43 PM
The undated diagram that was given to the AP by officials of a country critical of Iran's atomic program allegedly calculating the explosive force of a nuclear weapon _ a key step in developing such arms. The diagram shows a bell curve and has variables of time in micro-seconds and power and energy, both in kilotons _ the traditional measurement of the energy output, and hence the destructive power of nuclear weapons.

People actually believe this dreck? Those officials were Israelis or their lackeys in Washington feeding propaganda to Western media outlets. This is information that any physics major or military is going to have access to and be obligated to know and have written down. Why wouldn't Iran be looking at how powerful nuclear blasts are? I'm embarrassed that the bar is so low for warmongering propaganda. Neocons, this is what your masters think of you. This is what they think you're stupid enough to be baited by.

Pitiful....
 
2012-11-27 02:34:07 PM

GAT_00: whistleridge: From the Afterword:

That did occur to me, but this isn't the same. They were machining an existing bomb, which is even easier. Refining uranium is exceptionally harder. It can't be done chemically, isotopes are chemically identical. Centrifuges work, if you get them spinning hard enough, but it is very slow. It's the cheapest and safest way to get to enriched uranium for a bomb, and what Iran is apparently going for.

There are about a half dozen ways to get a nuclear weapon, including going for uranium bombs and plutonium bombs.

This knowledge is impossible to keep secret. Iran will have a nuke unless they are invaded, which is even dumber than the pointless methods we are doing now.


Agreed, on all points.

I don't know why everyone is fussing so much. They won't use them, for the simple logic that it's not possible to hide the origin of such weapons - the physics being immutable and all. If anyone uses a nuc, it's immediately known whose it was. Even if they overlook the heinous expense and make one and give it to, say, Hamas, and then Hamas were then to be so stupid as to park it in a truck in Tel Aviv, all it would do is guarantee an immediate Israeli response, international occupation of Iran, and the utter destruction of the current Islamist state there. They know that. They don't want that. And Tel Aviv isn't worth it.

Let them have them, I say. They're a waste of money. There's a reason Japan and Germany don't have them, and it has nothing to do with ability.
 
2012-11-27 02:42:07 PM

impaler: Does anyone know if it's common for scientists (especially outside the US) to rate nuclear power in kT/sec?


Seeing as all the energy is released pretty much at the same time, you would think that they would measure it terms of energy released like joules (mega-joules, giga-joules, etc...).

/I'm not an scientist - probably obvious
 
2012-11-27 02:46:54 PM
Remember when Iran's missile program got a hold of Photoshop?

Looks like their nuclear program just got Matlab.
 
2012-11-27 03:01:47 PM

whistleridge: GAT_00: whistleridge: From the Afterword:

That did occur to me, but this isn't the same. They were machining an existing bomb, which is even easier. Refining uranium is exceptionally harder. It can't be done chemically, isotopes are chemically identical. Centrifuges work, if you get them spinning hard enough, but it is very slow. It's the cheapest and safest way to get to enriched uranium for a bomb, and what Iran is apparently going for.

There are about a half dozen ways to get a nuclear weapon, including going for uranium bombs and plutonium bombs.

This knowledge is impossible to keep secret. Iran will have a nuke unless they are invaded, which is even dumber than the pointless methods we are doing now.

Agreed, on all points.

I don't know why everyone is fussing so much. They won't use them, for the simple logic that it's not possible to hide the origin of such weapons - the physics being immutable and all. If anyone uses a nuc, it's immediately known whose it was. Even if they overlook the heinous expense and make one and give it to, say, Hamas, and then Hamas were then to be so stupid as to park it in a truck in Tel Aviv, all it would do is guarantee an immediate Israeli response, international occupation of Iran, and the utter destruction of the current Islamist state there. They know that. They don't want that. And Tel Aviv isn't worth it.

Let them have them, I say. They're a waste of money. There's a reason Japan and Germany don't have them, and it has nothing to do with ability.


As I pointed out to a certain hyper-Jew and immediately was denounced as wanting to destroy Israel and kill every Jew, Iran getting a nuke will stabilize, not destabilize the region. With the threat of nuclear war, people are forced to the table. As is, we have two nuclear powers, us and Israel, dictating to a slew of non-nuclear powers, and that is why the region is so unstable. Parity will lead to actual talks and force the powers to actually negotiate. Look at India and Pakistan; they've been much more stable and less warlike with each other since they've been able to blow each other to pieces.
 
2012-11-27 03:15:16 PM

Fark It: The undated diagram that was given to the AP by officials of a country critical of Iran's atomic program allegedly calculating the explosive force of a nuclear weapon _ a key step in developing such arms. The diagram shows a bell curve and has variables of time in micro-seconds and power and energy, both in kilotons _ the traditional measurement of the energy output, and hence the destructive power of nuclear weapons.

People actually believe this dreck? Those officials were Israelis or their lackeys in Washington feeding propaganda to Western media outlets. This is information that any physics major or military is going to have access to and be obligated to know and have written down. Why wouldn't Iran be looking at how powerful nuclear blasts are? I'm embarrassed that the bar is so low for warmongering propaganda. Neocons, this is what your masters think of you. This is what they think you're stupid enough to be baited by.

Pitiful....


It could just have likely been the Saudis or Bahrain both of who have major reservations about a nuclear Iran.

/just saying there are more actors in the pictures
 
2012-11-27 03:31:26 PM
An interesting politics thread. The only winning move is not to post.
 
2012-11-27 03:39:23 PM

zedster: Fark It: The undated diagram that was given to the AP by officials of a country critical of Iran's atomic program allegedly calculating the explosive force of a nuclear weapon _ a key step in developing such arms. The diagram shows a bell curve and has variables of time in micro-seconds and power and energy, both in kilotons _ the traditional measurement of the energy output, and hence the destructive power of nuclear weapons.

People actually believe this dreck? Those officials were Israelis or their lackeys in Washington feeding propaganda to Western media outlets. This is information that any physics major or military is going to have access to and be obligated to know and have written down. Why wouldn't Iran be looking at how powerful nuclear blasts are? I'm embarrassed that the bar is so low for warmongering propaganda. Neocons, this is what your masters think of you. This is what they think you're stupid enough to be baited by.

Pitiful....

It could just have likely been the Saudis or Bahrain both of who have major reservations about a nuclear Iran.

/just saying there are more actors in the pictures


You're right, I forgot about ASAPAC and ABPAC throwing their weight around and pushing for America to spill blood over Iran.....
 
2012-11-27 03:44:54 PM

Rev. Skarekroe: Relatively Obscure: Rev. Skarekroe: That computer was pretty stupid. There's a trick to playing tic-tac-toe where you win every time.

No there isn't. Not one that doesn't involve cheating.

You can not lose every time, though.

OK, I was exaggerating. But it's a lot easier than the computer who had a tie with every game it played.


Huh? The only way to not tie is to screw up and lose, or have an opponent who screws up and loses. How does not screwing up make the computer stupid?

Chuck Norris wins tic-tac-toe every time, though.
 
2012-11-27 03:54:19 PM
binaryapi.ap.org

Boy, Iranian scientists suck.

That power density function produces over 2,200,000 kT of energy, not 50. That's not triple Big Boy, that's 137,000 Big Boys.

Or 22 Tsar Bombs.

Corrected graph:
growlersoftware.com
 
2012-11-27 03:55:20 PM

impaler: The curve peaks at just above 50 kilotons 1.7E13 kT/sec at around 2 microseconds,

That curve is power, not energy.


That is, verbatim, what I say when a woman sees my dick.
 
2012-11-27 03:56:10 PM
The diagram was leaked by officials from a country critical of Iran's atomic program to bolster their arguments that Iran's nuclear program must be halted before it produces a weapon. The officials provided the diagram only on condition that they and their country not be named.

israel
 
2012-11-27 04:02:48 PM

Fark It: You're right, I forgot about ASAPAC and ABPAC throwing their weight around and pushing for America to spill blood over Iran.....


Saudi tells U.N. Iran trespassing on its territory: report

The Saudi's and Bahrain want the US/Israel to keep Iran in check. They are scared of a stronger Iran weakening their governments along sectarian lines
 
ZAZ [TotalFark]
2012-11-27 04:09:13 PM
By my calculations, the peak power of 7.1 x 10^22 watts is high enough to send 58 trillion Deloreans to the year 1985.

When you get there, tell the CIA not to sell arms to Iran. If one person does it, he's a nut and he goes to the asylum. If two people do it, they're both spies and they both go to prison. But if you get 58 trillion people singing in four part harmony, don't sell arms to Iran, they'll think it's a movement.
 
2012-11-27 04:16:14 PM

GAT_00: whistleridge: GAT_00: whistleridge: From the Afterword:

That did occur to me, but this isn't the same. They were machining an existing bomb, which is even easier. Refining uranium is exceptionally harder. It can't be done chemically, isotopes are chemically identical. Centrifuges work, if you get them spinning hard enough, but it is very slow. It's the cheapest and safest way to get to enriched uranium for a bomb, and what Iran is apparently going for.

There are about a half dozen ways to get a nuclear weapon, including going for uranium bombs and plutonium bombs.

This knowledge is impossible to keep secret. Iran will have a nuke unless they are invaded, which is even dumber than the pointless methods we are doing now.

Agreed, on all points.

I don't know why everyone is fussing so much. They won't use them, for the simple logic that it's not possible to hide the origin of such weapons - the physics being immutable and all. If anyone uses a nuc, it's immediately known whose it was. Even if they overlook the heinous expense and make one and give it to, say, Hamas, and then Hamas were then to be so stupid as to park it in a truck in Tel Aviv, all it would do is guarantee an immediate Israeli response, international occupation of Iran, and the utter destruction of the current Islamist state there. They know that. They don't want that. And Tel Aviv isn't worth it.

Let them have them, I say. They're a waste of money. There's a reason Japan and Germany don't have them, and it has nothing to do with ability.

As I pointed out to a certain hyper-Jew and immediately was denounced as wanting to destroy Israel and kill every Jew, Iran getting a nuke will stabilize, not destabilize the region. With the threat of nuclear war, people are forced to the table. As is, we have two nuclear powers, us and Israel, dictating to a slew of non-nuclear powers, and that is why the region is so unstable. Parity will lead to actual talks and force the powers to actually negotiate. Look at India and Pakistan; they've been much more stable and less warlike with each other since they've been able to blow each other to pieces.


Then there are guys like Hitler- who decides to farking take down Germany with him.

MacManara noted that Castro was more than willing to start World War III over the Cuban Missle Crises..The Russians held back.

While I understand that smaller countries wanting the great leveler- (north Korea, Iran, and Iraq being called Axis of evil by w Bush, caused them to restart their programs. Especially since W Bush invaded Iran on a cherry picked intel.)

I'm not saying you're wrong: Likely hood it would settle down the region... But there is always the crazy factor in human behavior
 
2012-11-27 04:30:02 PM
This graph came in a dossier with the whitey tape and the twoof about the Benghazi conspiracy.
 
2012-11-27 04:30:15 PM
Iran has turned out to be a WOPR of a problem for the US.
 
2012-11-27 04:31:27 PM
I am amazed that a country that is regularly threatened with military action by two nuclear armed powers might be doing calculations about the power of nuclear weapons.
 
2012-11-27 04:34:18 PM

Rev. Skarekroe: That computer was pretty stupid. There's a trick to playing tic-tac-toe where you win every time.


Only if you play first, and only if your opponent doesn't take the center square with his or her first move.
 
2012-11-27 04:39:02 PM
It is difficult to keep 60 year old technology from people who really want it.

Did you hear? The Chinese just landed an airplane on a ship.

Whats next? A Hindu on the Moon?
 
2012-11-27 04:40:16 PM
I wish we would just extend MAD to the world. If you use a nuke first we will glass parking lot you. If the reciever or any other country wants to join in the glass parking lot event, they can join in if they want.
 
2012-11-27 04:44:40 PM

Grand_Moff_Joseph: History tells us that the parties involved weighed the implications of using atomic bombs heavily before pulling the trigger. Their intention was indeed valid and understandable, but I dare say that they had no idea the kind of Pandora's box they were opening by ending the war a few months sooner.


It would have been invented eventually anyways. Now the world has seen is destructive force it wants nothing to do with its actual use. Had it not been used we'd probably already have had a full blown nuclear war by now... Or not, who knows.
 
2012-11-27 04:44:44 PM
Iran has the bell curve! We need to stop them before they develop Stochastic processes and drop a sensitivity analysis on the feasible region of Monte Carlo.
 
2012-11-27 04:44:55 PM
This was more than Iraq had. Look how well that turned out for us.

$12 trillion dollars later.
 
2012-11-27 04:45:45 PM

naughtyrev: A country that does not want to be named provides a graph that I could find in a library as proof of a weapons program. Better send in the marines.


Call it a hunch, but I'm guessing that the country's name starts with "Is," ends with "real" and rhymes with "Qsrael."

Just a guess.
 
2012-11-27 04:47:48 PM

vernonFL: Whats next? A Hindu on the Moon?


A rat done bit my sister अभिलाषा.
(with Kshatriya on the moon)
Her face and arms began to swell.
(and Kshatriya's on the moon)
I can't pay no doctor bill.
(but Kshatriya's on the moon)
Ten years from now I'll be payin' still.
(while Kshatriya's on the moon)
 
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