What a lot of people don't understand about winning the lottery is that it really isn't all that hard as long as you understand one key element of the entire equation: it's math, not luck, that matters. Specifically, it's the extrapolatables. You have to understand how the extrapolatables work to really get a clear picture of your real chances and what a sound investment in your lottery strategy will be. See, it's popular in news media to quote a figure you may have heard before: each player has a 1 in 175,000,000 chance of winning. Which sounds, let's be frank, pretty bad. But that's just the raw data with no extrapolatables added to it!

So let's examine what this truly means. 1 in 175,000,000 means that every time you play the lottery, you've got to play 175,000,000 times before you win. Which gives a totally advantage to people who've been playing for a long time -- I mean, some guy who's been buying tickets for years versus you, when it's your first time? Why is that even allowed? It shouldn't be if they want a fair competition. So, to even the playing field, what you really want to do is assemble a team of people who've been playing the lottery for a long time. So, like, say you have five friends who are experienced lottery players:

Buford: has played a total of 43 times
Henrietta: has played 112 times
Artie: has played 89 times
Gomer: has played 1,122 times, but those are just scratch-offs so they only count half (561)
Lucinda: has played 321 times

Now, add up (extrapolate) the total plays you have on your team: 1687.

So, now your chances, including yours, would appear to be 1688 in 175,000,000. But extrapolate that again and you find that that it's really works down to about 1 in 103,672. A great improvement, I'd say! So now each member of your team only needs to buy that many tickets (103, 672) to have a virtually 100 percent chance of winning.

Yes, of course, that still represents a significant investment. Tickets cost $2 each, so if you extrapolate that cost across each player, it works out to be a $207,344 investment. But consider this: The jackpot, after taxes, will amount to about $273 million. Divide that among your six team members, it's works out to $45.5 million apiece. A $45.5 million return on an initial investment of under a quarter million? Banks would salivate at the opportunity to loan on that sort of return. And you could of course decrease the initial investment by adding members to your team, although in the scenario described above it would be even a better idea to just dump Buford, who's kind of a jackass anyway, and replace him with someone who's been playing the lottery longer. Remember, in the end, it's not the *number* of people in your team that matters -- it's how many chances they've already used up. Always consider the extrapolatables, people. Always.

Who actually plays the lottery with a strategy to win? If you're doing that then you've got bigger issues than which numbers to play. Just do it for fun, to let yourself dream a little. That's what I'm paying for when I buy a ticket.

PROBABILITIES DO NOT WORK THAT WAY

You either win or you lose, so buy at least two tickets.

SurfaceTension: Who actually plays the lottery with a strategy to win? If you're doing that then you've got bigger issues than which numbers to play. Just do it for fun, to let yourself dream a little. That's what I'm paying for when I buy a ticket.

havana_joe: editer: SweetMama: Actually, the tip is mathematically correct. It's about expected value. Sharing the award reduces the expected value. To maximize the expected value, you try to avoid sharing the award. Granted, it's not a very good strategy. But it's the only strategy. There isn't anything else. You can't improve your chance of winning, but you can increase your expected value. So the advice, while counter-intuitive, is technically correct.

FINALLY. It really took three pages for someone to bring up expected value? Nice work.

To expand/restate: A ticket with "popular" numbers such as the date of the drawing is worth less than one without, because if it wins you get less money.

Ummm... If it wins you get less money... Wouldn't you get more money since the ticket won? In other words, while you may need to split the winnings with other people the fact that the ticket won makes it more valuable than all the other tickets that lost. Does not matter if the numbers were popular or not- only 1 sequence out of 175,000,000 will win, making that ticket worth more than the other 174,999,999 tickets. Sequence 123,456,789 is worth just as much as sequence 146,246,790 if they both lose- both are worht $0 regardless of the popularity of their numbers.

You're thinking about it after the results are known. Before the drawing, you don't know what the winning numbers are. In that case, all results have equal probability of occurring. By choosing "unpopular" numbers, you can increase the share of the pot you get if you do win.

Jon iz teh kewl: you'd have to print ahead of time, and SPECULATE the lotto drawing going up.
some people have that kind of vision, like bill gates

I'd laugh if someone like Bill Gates or Warren Buffet bought a ticket and managed to win it all.

NeoCortex42: I don't get why everybody gets so excited about the giant jackpots and suddenly puts down tens or hundreds of dollars on tickets. Was $40 or $50 million not enough? Is it not worth the cost of a cup of coffee until it hits ludicrous speed?

I'll buy an occasional ticket. I figure I'd be fortunate to hit that million dollar second prize. A jackpot, regardless of size, would be plenty for me for life.

I wait until they go plaid

I don't get why everybody gets so excited about the giant jackpots and suddenly puts down tens or hundreds of dollars on tickets. Was $40 or $50 million not enough? Is it not worth the cost of a cup of coffee until it hits ludicrous speed?

I'll buy an occasional ticket. I figure I'd be fortunate to hit that million dollar second prize. A jackpot, regardless of size, would be plenty for me for life.

If I win FREE TF FOR EVERYONE FOREVER!

/anyone here work for the lottery commission???

The only "strategy" I employ on the few occasions when I buy a ticket is for the benefit of my sanity: always autopick and never re-use set numbers. That way, when those set numbers come up two drawings after you decided to stop wasting your money, you won't have the urge to slash your wrists.

Nearly half a billion - no wonder there is a global cash flow problem - most of the money is now in bank accounts earning interest that can never be spent fast enough..........

That makes no logistical sense whatsoever.

Because I'd hate to have to share $425 million with even 10 people.

/people