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(Yahoo)   Tip #5 on winning the $425,000,000 Powerball: "Stay away from common lucky numbers like 3, 7 and 11 as well as numbers under 31 because they could be popular calendar dates like birthdays and anniversaries and would mean sharing the jackpot"   (news.yahoo.com) divider line 156
    More: Stupid, Powerball, calendar date, mess, celebrations, ABC News, Sharyn Alfonsi, Spartacus  
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2718 clicks; posted to Main » on 27 Nov 2012 at 10:29 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



156 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2012-11-27 08:01:06 AM  
Because I'd hate to have to share $425 million with even 10 people.

/people
 
2012-11-27 08:14:35 AM  
That makes no logistical sense whatsoever.
 
2012-11-27 08:15:11 AM  
Stay away from 7 and 11? How about back door Little Joe?
 
2012-11-27 08:18:29 AM  

Sybarite: Stay away from 7 and 11? How about back door Little Joe?


Just remember to pick up the cash flow.
 
2012-11-27 08:38:08 AM  
Nearly half a billion - no wonder there is a global cash flow problem - most of the money is now in bank accounts earning interest that can never be spent fast enough..........
 
2012-11-27 08:39:20 AM  
Who actually plays the lottery with a strategy to win? If you're doing that then you've got bigger issues than which numbers to play. Just do it for fun, to let yourself dream a little. That's what I'm paying for when I buy a ticket.
 
2012-11-27 08:41:17 AM  
Author wants to steer people away from his numbers so he doesn't have to share if he wins.
 
2012-11-27 08:42:06 AM  
Or simply don't play at all. Then you DEFINATELY won't have to share.

Common sense isn't so common.
 
2012-11-27 08:47:42 AM  

SurfaceTension: Who actually plays the lottery with a strategy to win? If you're doing that then you've got bigger issues than which numbers to play. Just do it for fun, to let yourself dream a little. That's what I'm paying for when I buy a ticket.


i249.photobucket.com
 
2012-11-27 08:49:56 AM  
The only "strategy" I employ on the few occasions when I buy a ticket is for the benefit of my sanity: always autopick and never re-use set numbers. That way, when those set numbers come up two drawings after you decided to stop wasting your money, you won't have the urge to slash your wrists.
 
2012-11-27 08:50:19 AM  
What a lot of people don't understand about winning the lottery is that it really isn't all that hard as long as you understand one key element of the entire equation: it's math, not luck, that matters. Specifically, it's the extrapolatables. You have to understand how the extrapolatables work to really get a clear picture of your real chances and what a sound investment in your lottery strategy will be. See, it's popular in news media to quote a figure you may have heard before: each player has a 1 in 175,000,000 chance of winning. Which sounds, let's be frank, pretty bad. But that's just the raw data with no extrapolatables added to it!

So let's examine what this truly means. 1 in 175,000,000 means that every time you play the lottery, you've got to play 175,000,000 times before you win. Which gives a totally advantage to people who've been playing for a long time -- I mean, some guy who's been buying tickets for years versus you, when it's your first time? Why is that even allowed? It shouldn't be if they want a fair competition. So, to even the playing field, what you really want to do is assemble a team of people who've been playing the lottery for a long time. So, like, say you have five friends who are experienced lottery players:

Buford: has played a total of 43 times
Henrietta: has played 112 times
Artie: has played 89 times
Gomer: has played 1,122 times, but those are just scratch-offs so they only count half (561)
Lucinda: has played 321 times

Now, add up (extrapolate) the total plays you have on your team: 1687.

So, now your chances, including yours, would appear to be 1688 in 175,000,000. But extrapolate that again and you find that that it's really works down to about 1 in 103,672. A great improvement, I'd say! So now each member of your team only needs to buy that many tickets (103, 672) to have a virtually 100 percent chance of winning.

Yes, of course, that still represents a significant investment. Tickets cost $2 each, so if you extrapolate that cost across each player, it works out to be a $207,344 investment. But consider this: The jackpot, after taxes, will amount to about $273 million. Divide that among your six team members, it's works out to $45.5 million apiece. A $45.5 million return on an initial investment of under a quarter million? Banks would salivate at the opportunity to loan on that sort of return. And you could of course decrease the initial investment by adding members to your team, although in the scenario described above it would be even a better idea to just dump Buford, who's kind of a jackass anyway, and replace him with someone who's been playing the lottery longer. Remember, in the end, it's not the *number* of people in your team that matters -- it's how many chances they've already used up. Always consider the extrapolatables, people. Always.
 
2012-11-27 09:03:11 AM  

Pocket Ninja: What a lot of people don't understand about winning the lottery....


Makes more sense than anything else lottery addicts would say.

\tip #6: Odds never change, no matter what your tinfoil hat says.
 
2012-11-27 09:03:40 AM  
You either win or you lose, so buy at least two tickets.
 
2012-11-27 09:36:02 AM  
I'm no expert in picking random numbers but I'm pretty sure, 'stay away from picking numbers' is a pretty fail strategy.
 
2012-11-27 09:47:04 AM  
Tip #6: Have someone else pick the numbers. When things go wrong, it's always nice to have someone else to blame.
 
2012-11-27 09:48:05 AM  
Never play six hundred and threescore and six, you'll have to share the winnngs with millions of Vincent Price and Iron Maiden fans.
 
2012-11-27 10:01:39 AM  
img526.imageshack.us

PROBABILITIES DO NOT WORK THAT WAY
 
2012-11-27 10:32:59 AM  
I plan to buy a ticket with the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6, Powerball 7.

Are my odds of winning the same?
 
2012-11-27 10:33:47 AM  

PreMortem: Or simply don't play at all. Then you DEFINATELY won't have to share.

Common sense isn't so common.


Poor spelling is quite common.
 
2012-11-27 10:34:38 AM  
Aptly tagged. Someone at ABC needs a course in probability.
 
2012-11-27 10:35:24 AM  

brap: Never play six hundred and threescore and six, you'll have to share the winnngs with millions of Vincent Price and Iron Maiden fans.


"and the lottery numbers are 6-6-6-45-43-42"

some pothead with an Iron Miaden t shirt is like "oh shiat i won!"
 
2012-11-27 10:35:53 AM  

Mugato: Sybarite: Stay away from 7 and 11? How about back door Little Joe?

Just remember to pick up the cash flow.


Did momma cook you breakfast with no hog?
 
hej
2012-11-27 10:36:05 AM  
Pretty sure there's no strategy in picking random numbers.

/Would take sharing a half billion $ vs sharing zero $.
 
2012-11-27 10:36:29 AM  
You have to win first to worry about sharing, and we all know how low the odds of that are.

Really, you're buying some entertainment in the form of daydreaming. Why not skip the part where you actually buy the ticket go right to the part where you daydream about winning the lottery.
 
2012-11-27 10:36:32 AM  
It makes perfect sense. People use those numbers more, meaning that if those numbers DO win, you'll have a greater chance of having to share. It doesn't have anything to do with the probability of winning at all.

The best chance is playing the same numbers every single drawing without fail. Still shiatty odds tho.
 
hej
2012-11-27 10:37:15 AM  

Makh: I'm no expert in picking random numbers but I'm pretty sure, 'stay away from picking numbers' is a pretty fail strategy.


I stand corrected.
 
2012-11-27 10:39:00 AM  
The article also says
"However, the more people buy tickets, the worse a person's chances get."
Ummm...

Also, Pocket Ninja, I'm not a math whiz but it doesn't work that way. Your odds of matching the numbers are 1 in 175,000,000 EVERY TIME YOU PLAY, whether you play once or 100,000 times. The only way to bring that statistic down is to play different numbers for the same drawing. play 2 different numbers on 2 tickets in one drawing and your odds are halfed. Play 2 different numbers on 2 tickets in 2 different drawings and the odds are still 1 in 175,000,000 each time.
 
2012-11-27 10:39:20 AM  
If I win FREE TF FOR EVERYONE FOREVER!

/anyone here work for the lottery commission???
 
2012-11-27 10:40:48 AM  
I tried to play my lucky numbers 7,7,7,7,7 and powerball 7, but the evil lottery lady refused to sell me the ticket. Fascists.
 
2012-11-27 10:41:08 AM  
Because those common numbers wouldn't mean sharing the pot with 10 people as another farker suggested. It would mean sharing the pot with 10,000 people.
Even still, it is free money, so why biatch?
 
2012-11-27 10:41:43 AM  

doczoidberg: I plan to buy a ticket with the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6, Powerball 7.

Are my odds of winning the same?


Well, considering you only get 5 numbers plus the Powerball, I don't think your ticket would be counted as legit.
 
2012-11-27 10:41:43 AM  

doczoidberg: I plan to buy a ticket with the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6, Powerball 7.

Are my odds of winning the same?


Considering there are only 5 balls + powerball, I'd say you can't lose.
 
2012-11-27 10:41:47 AM  
Just want to hit the Big One so I can hang out with John MacAffee.


And pay off a couple credit cards.
 
2012-11-27 10:42:03 AM  

ChipNASA: If I win FREE TF FOR EVERYONE FOREVER!

/anyone here work for the lottery commission???


I'm holding you to that.

deadhomersociety.files.wordpress.com
The only strategy you'll ever need.
 
2012-11-27 10:42:08 AM  
Okay math people help me, is 2 in 175,000,000 odds the same as 1 in 87,500,000?
 
2012-11-27 10:42:43 AM  

SurfaceTension: Who actually plays the lottery with a strategy to win?


www.scientificamerican.com
 
2012-11-27 10:43:37 AM  

Pocket Ninja: What a lot of people don't understand about winning the lottery is that it really isn't all that hard as long as you understand one key element of the entire equation: it's math, not luck, that matters. Specifically, it's the extrapolatables.


"Extrapolatables" -snerk-

Beautiful, man. Beautiful.
 
2012-11-27 10:44:07 AM  

cartooned: The article also says
"However, the more people buy tickets, the worse a person's chances get."
Ummm...

Also, Pocket Ninja, I'm not a math whiz but it doesn't work that way. Your odds of matching the numbers are 1 in 175,000,000 EVERY TIME YOU PLAY, whether you play once or 100,000 times. The only way to bring that statistic down is to play different numbers for the same drawing. play 2 different numbers on 2 tickets in one drawing and your odds are halfed 2 in 175,000. Play 2 different numbers on 2 tickets in 2 different drawings and the odds are still 1 in 175,000,000 each time.


FTFY
 
2012-11-27 10:45:58 AM  
HotWing's Lotto Tips:

1. Buy a ticket, this will give you an opportunity to win
 
2012-11-27 10:46:00 AM  

lewismarktwo: It makes perfect sense. People use those numbers more, meaning that if those numbers DO win, you'll have a greater chance of having to share. It doesn't have anything to do with the probability of winning at all.


I wonder if the raw data is available to confirm this. I mean, I have to imagine the overwhelming number of tickets sold, especially when the jackpot gets this big, is from the random generated numbers. So you aren't going to have anything psychologically favoring special numbers there (we could debate the true randomness of those random numbers, but that is a different thread).

So lets say you have 80% of your tickets sold randomly, and 20% where people picked the numbers, out of like a billion tickets sold.

Of those 20%, how many people avoid "special" numbers for the very reason in this thread? How many favor high numbers to avoid having to split with birthday people, etc.

I'd wager that it pretty much comes out to be a wash.
 
2012-11-27 10:46:17 AM  

doczoidberg: I plan to buy a ticket with the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6, Powerball 7.

Are my odds of winning the same?


Your odds of winning are exactly the same.

Your odds of having to share the jackpot would probably be low except that now I'm going to buy an identical ticket just to thwart you.

/thwart
 
2012-11-27 10:46:27 AM  
Tip #7: Don't play unless you can afford to pay the millions of dollars in taxes that will be levied against you.
 
2012-11-27 10:46:47 AM  
Give me a million and I can change my life with that. Heck, even a fraction would suffice.

What a weird mentality they demonstrated in this publication.
 
2012-11-27 10:47:56 AM  
If you pick entire subsets of number combinations, you better your odds. For instance, purchase enough lotto tickets where you have played 1-52 (or whatever the powerball caps at) in random order. You have bettered your odds because you are GUARANTEED to get 1 number correct, which means you only have to guess 4 numbers now and a powerball. The powerball is picked from a different pool of numbers and can be a repeat of a previously picked number in the 5 set. That is why the odds are so astronomical to begin with and makes it WAY harder to hit it big.
 
2012-11-27 10:48:00 AM  

cartooned: Okay math people help me, is 2 in 175,000,000 odds the same as 1 in 87,500,000?


I would say yes, but I only had a math minor so I know less about math than the average person.

would you spend $87.5M to make it a coin flip? Heads, you ~triple your money. Tails, you lose it all. I think that helps put the probability more in perspective than anything else.
 
2012-11-27 10:49:02 AM  
Remember, winning is everything.
 
2012-11-27 10:49:15 AM  

Billy Bathsalt: I tried to play my lucky numbers 7,7,7,7,7 and powerball 7, but the evil lottery lady refused to sell me the ticket. Fascists.


duh. you only played 5 7's your supposed to pick 6
 
2012-11-27 10:50:44 AM  

Pocket Ninja: extrapolatables


This is why I go for a new cup of coffee when I see that color...
 
2012-11-27 10:50:52 AM  

dervish16108: Give me a million and I can change my life with that. Heck, even a fraction would suffice.

What a weird mentality they demonstrated in this publication.


Also this. When one of those frequent players wins one of those astronomical jackpots, it's only a matter of time before they're broke. It's in their personality to fail, but they have already shown that they don't understand math on a basic level.
 
2012-11-27 10:51:20 AM  

zipdog: Tip #7: Don't play unless you can afford to pay the millions of dollars in taxes that will be levied against you.


That's funny... but that's also how many tea baggers think...

"Why should I make more money? My taxes will increase anyway."

They sure are a bright bunch.
 
2012-11-27 10:51:30 AM  

GoodyearPimp: cartooned: Okay math people help me, is 2 in 175,000,000 odds the same as 1 in 87,500,000?

I would say yes, but I only had a math minor so I know less about math than the average person.


No the odds are the same as 1 in 174,999,999.
 
2012-11-27 10:51:46 AM  

hypocaffeinemia: doczoidberg: I plan to buy a ticket with the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6, Powerball 7.

Are my odds of winning the same?

Considering there are only 5 balls + powerball, I'd say you can't lose.


Ignoring that, you'd probably have to split the winnings with a bunch of other oddballs. But yes, 1,2,3,4,5+6 has as much chance of winning as anything else.
 
2012-11-27 10:52:30 AM  

doczoidberg: I plan to buy a ticket with the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6, Powerball 7.

Are my odds of winning the same?


Yes, but you'll be forever pursued by people claiming you cheated. That's why I'm playing 1,2,3,4,5,7, Powerball 8.
 
2012-11-27 10:52:50 AM  

hugram: zipdog: Tip #7: Don't play unless you can afford to pay the millions of dollars in taxes that will be levied against you.

That's funny... but that's also how many tea baggers think...

"Why should I make more money? My taxes will increase anyway."

They sure are a bright bunch.


They want the benefits of civil society, but none of the responsibility. And they call others moochers.
 
2012-11-27 10:54:28 AM  

Billy Bathsalt: No the odds are the same as 1 in 174,999,999.


Thank you, that makes more sense.
 
2012-11-27 10:55:31 AM  
anybody who fills in their own numbers is crazy. u mean it's the same odds as quick pick, sure i'll waste my time by filling out numbers like a scantron. those tests were always so fun in college
 
2012-11-27 10:56:38 AM  
I got my tickets purchased. 

forum.encyclopediadramatica.se
 
2012-11-27 10:57:25 AM  
This just in, ABC News is reporting that 3, 7 and 11 are no longer numbers under 31.
 
2012-11-27 10:58:13 AM  

LineNoise: lewismarktwo: It makes perfect sense. People use those numbers more, meaning that if those numbers DO win, you'll have a greater chance of having to share. It doesn't have anything to do with the probability of winning at all.


I wonder if the raw data is available to confirm this. I mean, I have to imagine the overwhelming number of tickets sold, especially when the jackpot gets this big, is from the random generated numbers. So you aren't going to have anything psychologically favoring special numbers there (we could debate the true randomness of those random numbers, but that is a different thread).

So lets say you have 80% of your tickets sold randomly, and 20% where people picked the numbers, out of like a billion tickets sold.

Of those 20%, how many people avoid "special" numbers for the very reason in this thread? How many favor high numbers to avoid having to split with birthday people, etc.

I'd wager that it pretty much comes out to be a wash.


Here's a fun story showing the problem: Link
Last year, four of the six numbers in a Mega Millions drawing matched the Lost numbers. Over 40,000 people were playing those numbers.

Birthday numbers mean you're probably splitting the plot with a couple tickets or so. if you play "special" sequences, like the Lost numbers or Fibonacci numbers, you're probably going to end up splitting with a ton of people.
 
2012-11-27 10:58:43 AM  
Ive noticed that being old helps a lot...and when it comes to the Powerball lotto theres something about Michigan too.
 
2012-11-27 10:59:50 AM  
Came here looking for someone calling out the submitter. I'm a little disappointed in you all. Obviously picking the winning numbers is the right choice, you only need to buy one ticket after all, and if the winning numbers are 3,7,11,1,31 then that's what you should pick.

So... let's say for a moment that you don't know what the winning numbers are. Then you're stuck guessing like a rube. You could guess 3,7,11,1,31 like every other shlub, and if those are the winning numbers than good on you, but 2,4,22,16,41 are just as likely to win and if that's what you guess and that's what comes up then you get more money. The article assumes that you can figure this out.
 
2012-11-27 11:01:15 AM  
poweball frequency chart

play the numbers that have been hit the most?

or play the numbers that have been hit the least hoping their time is coming?

or just pick family birthdays and hope it works out?
 
2012-11-27 11:01:39 AM  
I think I am going to play the odds on this. Pick my numbers and share in my good fortune.
 
2012-11-27 11:02:31 AM  

give me doughnuts: SurfaceTension: Who actually plays the lottery with a strategy to win? If you're doing that then you've got bigger issues than which numbers to play. Just do it for fun, to let yourself dream a little. That's what I'm paying for when I buy a ticket.

[i249.photobucket.com image 124x160]THIS


This is exactly why I only bother with quickpick when I do get the occasional lotto ticket. I'm not going to have better success because I picked my own numbers, so why the fark bother. Also, it means the newsstand person I got the ticket from likes me because I didn't take up half the booth layout filling in little bubbles and then spend 5 minutes carefully scrutinizing my ticket(s) as if they held the secret to the universe on them
 
2012-11-27 11:02:46 AM  
If I win, free TF's for everyone!

/Except Drew
//Pray for Amos
///Pray for Amos
 
2012-11-27 11:03:00 AM  
if i ever win i'm gonna write a book on "how i won the lottery"
and i promise it would become a best seller
 
2012-11-27 11:03:01 AM  

doczoidberg: I plan to buy a ticket with the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6, Powerball 7.

Are my odds of winning the same?


No, the lottery numbers are insufficiently random. They use actual physical objects with numbers painted on. The weights are different so some balls are favored over others. Single digit balls are the worst.
 
2012-11-27 11:04:12 AM  
If I won $425 million, I would give $424 million to charity.

Then, know what I'd do with the remaining million?
 
2012-11-27 11:06:03 AM  
So.. if I buy 175,000,000 tickets then I am guaranteed to win the $278,000,000 right? I'll jump right on that!
 
2012-11-27 11:06:06 AM  
I once watched a TV show regarding a guy that would wait until the lottery jackpot would get so big, that he would buy every possible combination. He used a computer program to do this. One time, his computer had a glitch and he was only able to buy about 80% of all possible combos.

Lucky for him, the winning numbers were on the 80% combo.
 
2012-11-27 11:06:14 AM  
When I play it is always a QP. The computer is randomly selecting numbers for me and the balls are drawn randomly (Supposedly. I won't buy into a whole, "the lottery commission rigs it to get the jackpots up there) I had a math prof. talking about how he and some colleagues had devised a way to win the lottery, but he wouldn't reveal his strategy to us because in his own words, "it would be unethical"

the only system I saw that actually seemed to partially work was with the pick 3 game. It is all about math and this system did work (but part of the time as I said) we all know how pick 3 works, 10 numbers 0-9 and you pick 3. Well, you looked at the previous nights results and depending on the numbers you either added or subtracted 4. If the numbers picked started with a 0 or 8 (might have been 9) you didn't play for that night. then instead of playing the straight, i.e., you pick 1,2,3 and they draw 1,2,3 you picked the any box option so no matter what happened you won something. you pick 1,2,3 they draw 2,3,1 you still won. I tried it and actually won a few times 60 bucks here or there. Biggest as 150 dollars. but you aren't going to get rich off of the pick 3.

/but if I did win, I would have to say the same and TF for everyone.
//unless you are on my ignore list :P
 
2012-11-27 11:08:14 AM  

doczoidberg: I plan to buy a ticket with the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6, Powerball 7.

Are my odds of winning the same?


Your odds of winning are always the same no matter what valid numbers you pick. But the odds of sharing the jackpot with X number of people can change and thereby change the payout.
 
2012-11-27 11:08:28 AM  

reillan: If I won $425 million, I would give $424 million to charity.

Then, know what I'd do with the remaining million?


16,000 years of total fark?
 
2012-11-27 11:08:43 AM  
WTF? That makes no sense. It doesn't matter if you choose above or below thirty. The balls in the bin do not care.

These are tips on how to win while also avoiding having the same numbers as someone else. Splitting that much money a couple ways is probably all right.
 
2012-11-27 11:08:53 AM  

Holocaust Agnostic: doczoidberg: I plan to buy a ticket with the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6, Powerball 7.

Are my odds of winning the same?

No, the lottery numbers are insufficiently random. They use actual physical objects with numbers painted on. The weights are different so some balls are favored over others. Single digit balls are the worst.


check that link I posted above. #1 has been hit 11 times (one of the more frequent)

56 has been hit the most
 
2012-11-27 11:09:04 AM  

NeoCortex42: if you play "special" sequences, like the Lost numbers or Fibonacci numbers, you're probably going to end up splitting with a ton of people.


At least I will be splitting with educated people, rather than run of the mill rednecks.
 
2012-11-27 11:09:42 AM  

hugram: I once watched a TV show regarding a guy that would wait until the lottery jackpot would get so big, that he would buy every possible combination. He used a computer program to do this. One time, his computer had a glitch and he was only able to buy about 80% of all possible combos.

Lucky for him, the winning numbers were on the 80% combo.


Where was he playing? It would be impossible for one person to actually buy/print all the combinations to powerball in the time between drawings.
 
2012-11-27 11:10:16 AM  

Nemnoch: So.. if I buy 175,000,000 tickets then I am guaranteed to win the $278,000,000 right? I'll jump right on that!


Tickets cost $2, which means you just lost $72 million. Bravo, good sir.
 
2012-11-27 11:10:45 AM  

reillan: If I won $425 million, I would give $424 million to charity.

Then, know what I'd do with the remaining million?


Hire a good tax attorney?
 
2012-11-27 11:10:46 AM  

doczoidberg: I plan to buy a ticket with the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6, Powerball 7.

Are my odds of winning the same?


Funny, that's the same combination on my luggage.

Scroob.jpg
 
2012-11-27 11:11:54 AM  
I don't get why everybody gets so excited about the giant jackpots and suddenly puts down tens or hundreds of dollars on tickets. Was $40 or $50 million not enough? Is it not worth the cost of a cup of coffee until it hits ludicrous speed?

I'll buy an occasional ticket. I figure I'd be fortunate to hit that million dollar second prize. A jackpot, regardless of size, would be plenty for me for life.
 
2012-11-27 11:11:54 AM  

reillan: If I won $425 million, I would give $424 million to charity.

Then, know what I'd do with the remaining million?


I already posted the Lawrence pic.
 
2012-11-27 11:12:50 AM  

srhp29: hugram: I once watched a TV show regarding a guy that would wait until the lottery jackpot would get so big, that he would buy every possible combination. He used a computer program to do this. One time, his computer had a glitch and he was only able to buy about 80% of all possible combos.

Lucky for him, the winning numbers were on the 80% combo.

Where was he playing? It would be impossible for one person to actually buy/print all the combinations to powerball in the time between drawings.


you'd have to print ahead of time, and SPECULATE the lotto drawing going up.
some people have that kind of vision, like bill gates
 
2012-11-27 11:13:12 AM  

NeoCortex42: I don't get why everybody gets so excited about the giant jackpots and suddenly puts down tens or hundreds of dollars on tickets. Was $40 or $50 million not enough? Is it not worth the cost of a cup of coffee until it hits ludicrous speed?

I'll buy an occasional ticket. I figure I'd be fortunate to hit that million dollar second prize. A jackpot, regardless of size, would be plenty for me for life.


I wait until they go plaid

www.3dfx.ch
 
2012-11-27 11:14:35 AM  

Jon iz teh kewl: you'd have to print ahead of time, and SPECULATE the lotto drawing going up.
some people have that kind of vision, like bill gates


I'd laugh if someone like Bill Gates or Warren Buffet bought a ticket and managed to win it all.
 
2012-11-27 11:17:27 AM  

doczoidberg: I plan to buy a ticket with the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6, Powerball 7.

Are my odds of winning the same?


Yeah, but then you'd have to share the pot with a lot of other people who were just as clever. I think the point the author was making is that since the chance of any sequence of numbers appearing is the same, why not pick one where your chances of sharing is a lot less.
 
2012-11-27 11:17:52 AM  
Too many old farkers win. There should be an upper age limit, say 65 and they should be I.D.

With my luck I'll get killed in a car accident and some sleazy cop will check my wallet for I.D. and pocket my winning lottery ticket.
 
2012-11-27 11:21:06 AM  

NeoCortex42: I don't get why everybody gets so excited about the giant jackpots and suddenly puts down tens or hundreds of dollars on tickets. Was $40 or $50 million not enough? Is it not worth the cost of a cup of coffee until it hits ludicrous speed?

I'll buy an occasional ticket. I figure I'd be fortunate to hit that million dollar second prize. A jackpot, regardless of size, would be plenty for me for life.


^This. If the jackpot gets won it gets reset to what 20 million or somewhere in that area? If you take the lump sum and after paying taxes, you would still have a nice chunk of change. Shoot, even the hot lotto that is plaid the starting is a million, you take the lump sum it is what a little over 500k? you pay taxes on that and granted it isn't much but there are people out there who would gladly take that and not become attention whores. I am one of those people that if I was to win a couple of million, it would be pay off the house and bills maybe buy a couple of nice vehicles and then I am good with using the rest to either sit around drawing interest or use it for whatever needs (not wants) comes up.

/only problem with even winning a small jackpot is myself, like so many others, have tons of "long lost friends and relatives" coming out of the woodwork.
 
2012-11-27 11:23:43 AM  

jimmyjackfunk: Shoot, even the hot lotto that is plaid played the starting is a million


/damn I was thinking about that spaceballs reference.
 
2012-11-27 11:23:58 AM  
My tip: Just use the quick-pick. That way when you lose it's not because of a number you chose.
 
2012-11-27 11:24:15 AM  
I've already signed the back of my ticket so, sorry guys, I'm going to win.

/ my man only plays the little lotto because anything over a few million is too much money in his opinion
// he's probably right
 
2012-11-27 11:25:35 AM  

Jon iz teh kewl: srhp29: hugram: I once watched a TV show regarding a guy that would wait until the lottery jackpot would get so big, that he would buy every possible combination. He used a computer program to do this. One time, his computer had a glitch and he was only able to buy about 80% of all possible combos.

Lucky for him, the winning numbers were on the 80% combo.

Where was he playing? It would be impossible for one person to actually buy/print all the combinations to powerball in the time between drawings.

you'd have to print ahead of time, and SPECULATE the lotto drawing going up.
some people have that kind of vision, like bill gates


That is what a group did in Ireland in the early 90s. They filled in all the number selection forms before hand, so they only had to rush to convert them to tickets. It also had around 1% of the possible combinations of Powerball (it was pick 6 of 36 numbers). They ended up splitting the jackpot with two other people but the secondary prizes got them to about £300,000 gain over the ticket prices (before other costs and time invested). Immediately after the Irish lottery added another three numbers to the game and a bonus number to the draw.
 
2012-11-27 11:26:46 AM  
If I win. I'm going to dissappear for one year.
Talk only to my financial planner.
Enjoy a long vacation.
Come back and bulldoze my entire property.
Dig it out to bedrock and springs.
Build an underground home with bat cave garage doors, swimming pool, and indoor fireplace where I can burn whole logs and stack the fire with a fron end loader.

Put Mr. Bonestripper out back.
 
2012-11-27 11:26:55 AM  

Jon iz teh kewl: srhp29: hugram: I once watched a TV show regarding a guy that would wait until the lottery jackpot would get so big, that he would buy every possible combination. He used a computer program to do this. One time, his computer had a glitch and he was only able to buy about 80% of all possible combos.

Lucky for him, the winning numbers were on the 80% combo.

Where was he playing? It would be impossible for one person to actually buy/print all the combinations to powerball in the time between drawings.

you'd have to print ahead of time, and SPECULATE the lotto drawing going up.
some people have that kind of vision, like bill gates


I don't think you can buy tickets ahead of time though except in the case where you buy a ticket that is for multiple drawings....which kind of defeats the purpose if you are paying 5x the amount per ticket and hoping no one wins until the fifth drawing for your ticket.
 
2012-11-27 11:29:34 AM  
This came up when lots of people were playing the LOST numbers.

Suppose there's a $10 million payoff. If you pick random numbers, you have a (small) shot at $10 million. But if you play the LOST numbers, there's a good chance there are a thousand people playing those same numbers. So now you're in a lottery for $10,000.

It isn't an issue of improving your odds of winning. It's an issue of playing for a bigger jackpot with the same odds. Would you rather have a one-in-a-zillion chance at $1 million, or a one-in-a-zillion chance at $50 million?
 
2012-11-27 11:29:34 AM  

dywed88: Jon iz teh kewl: srhp29: hugram: I once watched a TV show regarding a guy that would wait until the lottery jackpot would get so big, that he would buy every possible combination. He used a computer program to do this. One time, his computer had a glitch and he was only able to buy about 80% of all possible combos.

Lucky for him, the winning numbers were on the 80% combo.

Where was he playing? It would be impossible for one person to actually buy/print all the combinations to powerball in the time between drawings.

you'd have to print ahead of time, and SPECULATE the lotto drawing going up.
some people have that kind of vision, like bill gates

That is what a group did in Ireland in the early 90s. They filled in all the number selection forms before hand, so they only had to rush to convert them to tickets. It also had around 1% of the possible combinations of Powerball (it was pick 6 of 36 numbers). They ended up splitting the jackpot with two other people but the secondary prizes got them to about £300,000 gain over the ticket prices (before other costs and time invested). Immediately after the Irish lottery added another three numbers to the game and a bonus number to the draw.


the lotto place should automatically sell a shared combo buy package that everyone can buy into to win a guaranteed $1.0001 for a $1 bet
 
2012-11-27 11:32:39 AM  

Jon iz teh kewl: if i ever win i'm gonna write a book on "how i won the lottery"
and i promise it would become a best seller


if you don't win, write a book about how you ALMOST won.
I bet it will still sell well.
 
2012-11-27 11:33:28 AM  
Chances of winning, slim to none.... Chances of winning if you don't get at least one ticket, none.

/I only give it a shot about 2 or 3 times a year.
 
2012-11-27 11:35:30 AM  

Nemnoch: So.. if I buy 175,000,000 tickets then I am guaranteed to win the $278,000,000 right? I'll jump right on that!


You cannot buy 175,000,000 tickets by yourself. The machine cannot print them fast enough in the days between drawings.
 
2012-11-27 11:36:45 AM  

give me doughnuts: SurfaceTension: Who actually plays the lottery with a strategy to win? If you're doing that then you've got bigger issues than which numbers to play. Just do it for fun, to let yourself dream a little. That's what I'm paying for when I buy a ticket.

[i249.photobucket.com image 124x160]


Squared
 
2012-11-27 11:38:35 AM  

SurfaceTension: Who actually plays the lottery with a strategy to win? If you're doing that then you've got bigger issues than which numbers to play. Just do it for fun, to let yourself dream a little. That's what I'm paying for when I buy a ticket.


/Agree
 
2012-11-27 11:41:29 AM  

SurfaceTension: Who actually plays the lottery with a strategy to win? If you're doing that then you've got bigger issues than which numbers to play.


My father has been profiting off the Pick 3 for six months now. He has some bizarre "wheeling" system that should not work but has worked to the tune of about an extra $40/week as a hobby. I want to put a shotgun in my mouth and pull the trigger with my toes every time he tries to explain it to me, but he has proven that he is winning to my satisfaction and it's really upsetting my entire worldview.
 
2012-11-27 11:45:04 AM  
In 2006, eight meatpacking workers - called the "Nebraska 8? - struck gold in Lincoln, Neb., with a single ticket chosen by a computer. They won $365 million - the biggest lottery payout in U.S. history.

Before they even get into their 'tips' they pretty much shoot down their own article.
 
2012-11-27 11:47:43 AM  

Special J: In 2006, eight meatpacking workers - called the "Nebraska 8? - struck gold in Lincoln, Neb., with a single ticket chosen by a computer. They won $365 million - the biggest lottery payout in U.S. history.

Before they even get into their 'tips' they pretty much shoot down their own article.


at least they weren't fudgepacking
like Tom Cruise

images3.cliqueclack.com
 
2012-11-27 11:48:06 AM  
My boss is collecting $2 from us for the office pool so I'm getting a kick out of these replies.

Who plays stratagy? EP the numbers and let them ride. The idea is that you're not a part of half of the building that is left behind when the other half wins and quits. ($2 is ok for my santiy of not cleaing up the mess left behind).
 
2012-11-27 11:54:14 AM  

hypocaffeinemia: Nemnoch: So.. if I buy 175,000,000 tickets then I am guaranteed to win the $278,000,000 right? I'll jump right on that!

Tickets cost $2, which means you just lost $72 million. Bravo, good sir.


Lesser combos win too. You cant lose
 
2012-11-27 11:54:48 AM  
There was a draw recently in the UK where 6 people matched 6 numbers out of 49 and split the Jackpot six ways. Only 1 person matched any 5 plus the bonus ball and ended up winning 50% more than each of the jackpot winners, so trying to identify unlikely combinations of numbers to pick is well worth doing.

About 15 years ago, one draw consisted entirely of numbers from the 2 central columns of the ticket and 133 people won the Jackpot (and a mere £120,000 rather than the life changing £15m+ they might have been expecting!)
 
2012-11-27 11:56:48 AM  

ginko: My boss is collecting $2 from us for the office pool so I'm getting a kick out of these replies.

Who plays stratagy? EP the numbers and let them ride. The idea is that you're not a part of half of the building that is left behind when the other half wins and quits. ($2 is ok for my santiy of not cleaing up the mess left behind).


Make sure you get a copy of tickets.
 
2012-11-27 11:57:11 AM  
Just having fun thinking about what I'd do with $400M is worth the $20 I throw in two or three times a year. Astronomical though the odds are, you DO have to be in it to win it.
 
2012-11-27 11:57:47 AM  

zipdog: Tip #7: Don't play unless you can afford to pay the millions of dollars in taxes that will be levied against you.


Tip #7b: Do not ever take tax advice from zipdog.
 
2012-11-27 12:03:55 PM  

sid244: ginko: My boss is collecting $2 from us for the office pool so I'm getting a kick out of these replies.

Who plays stratagy? EP the numbers and let them ride. The idea is that you're not a part of half of the building that is left behind when the other half wins and quits. ($2 is ok for my santiy of not cleaing up the mess left behind).

Make sure you get a copy of tickets.


We do, he's very straight forward and emails us the tickets in a PDF so we can check them at home. If I come in and no one else is my dept the next morning, I know I missed the numbers.
 
2012-11-27 12:09:45 PM  

cartooned: The article also says
"However, the more people buy tickets, the worse a person's chances get."
Ummm...

Also, Pocket Ninja, I'm not a math whiz but it doesn't work that way. Your odds of matching the numbers are 1 in 175,000,000 EVERY TIME YOU PLAY, whether you play once or 100,000 times. The only way to bring that statistic down is to play different numbers for the same drawing. play 2 different numbers on 2 tickets in one drawing and your odds are halfed. Play 2 different numbers on 2 tickets in 2 different drawings and the odds are still 1 in 175,000,000 each time.


You can't prove that. I'd like to see the study on how many times each lottery winner played before winning. That would tell you right out the average number of times you need to play, then once you hit that, you know you're just a play or two from winning big!
 
2012-11-27 12:11:45 PM  
If i win, you aint gettin shiat
 
2012-11-27 12:12:44 PM  
I am so going to kick your arse at lottery this week! Bring it, mofo!

/competitive lottery team!
 
2012-11-27 12:15:21 PM  
But those are all Prime Numbers!
 
2012-11-27 12:19:43 PM  
Got this from a guy that knows the Mailman that delivered a letter to a guy who's sister once dated a guy that knew a cousin of a big time finical guy that once went to Maui and surfed with a friend of waiter that worked in a Restaurant that served the Manager of a Rock Star's roadie that buys weed from a kid that worked at 7-11 when a fellow purchased a slurpie and on the back of the cup was the Number 3.

Do not play the #3.

Really, that is all.
 
2012-11-27 12:19:44 PM  

SurfaceTension: Who actually plays the lottery with a strategy to win?


The woman at :16 in this video Link
 
2012-11-27 12:35:54 PM  
If there was *any* possible way to stack the odds in your favor, even with a sizable investment, 2-3 kids from MIT would win every single time.
 
2012-11-27 12:43:35 PM  

NeoCortex42: I don't get why everybody gets so excited about the giant jackpots and suddenly puts down tens or hundreds of dollars on tickets. Was $40 or $50 million not enough? Is it not worth the cost of a cup of coffee until it hits ludicrous speed?

I'll buy an occasional ticket. I figure I'd be fortunate to hit that million dollar second prize. A jackpot, regardless of size, would be plenty for me for life.


there was a reasonable study done earlier this year during the whole mega thing that it was econmically feasible to buy a ticket after the jackpot hit a certain amount.
 
2012-11-27 12:48:38 PM  
You don't even have to buy a ticket to win the lottery. It's technically possible that you find the winning ticket on the side of the road after someone dropped it or a friend/family member buys you a ticket without your knowledge and that ticket ends up being the winner.
Sure, the odds of either event are remote but not impossible; therefore you don't even have to play the lottery to actually win the lottery!
 
2012-11-27 12:50:38 PM  
From a Farker since about 06' playing the lottery does pay off.
Crown Jewel 7 style.
You Tube the following:
Maryland Lottery Michael Brown.

Yep that's me.
I'm going for a double double this time.

Like another said TF FOR EVERYONE... And Drew, maybe a new Liver.

Mike
 
2012-11-27 12:56:29 PM  
Quick pick and forget it.

That's my strategy.

$425 million, you may as well contribute a couple bucks to your state's education fund. Maybe kids will learn how to spell definitely right or use 'than' instead of 'then'.


/3 tickets + power play
 
2012-11-27 01:02:34 PM  
/raises hand

Uhh, Mr. Kotter, what if the numbers you should stay away from are the numbers that are picked as part of the winning combination? Isn't better to share a jackpot than not to win one at all?
 
2012-11-27 01:04:07 PM  
Actually, the tip is mathematically correct. It's about expected value. Sharing the award reduces the expected value. To maximize the expected value, you try to avoid sharing the award. Granted, it's not a very good strategy. But it's the only strategy. There isn't anything else. You can't improve your chance of winning, but you can increase your expected value. So the advice, while counter-intuitive, is technically correct.
 
2012-11-27 01:11:06 PM  
850 chicks at once, man!
 
2012-11-27 01:11:16 PM  

cartooned: The article also says
"However, the more people buy tickets, the worse a person's chances get."
Ummm...

Also, Pocket Ninja, I'm not a math whiz but it doesn't work that way. Your odds of matching the numbers are 1 in 175,000,000 EVERY TIME YOU PLAY, whether you play once or 100,000 times. The only way to bring that statistic down is to play different numbers for the same drawing. play 2 different numbers on 2 tickets in one drawing and your odds are halfed. Play 2 different numbers on 2 tickets in 2 different drawings and the odds are still 1 in 175,000,000 each time.


Cue "That's The Joke..." pic
 
2012-11-27 01:16:26 PM  
I've always played at least one number over 31 to avoid the calendar pickers.

There was a mass megabucks (before it went multi-state) drawing back in the early '80s that had a jackpot in the mid 7 figures. The winning numbers were all single digits. Almost sequential, too, except for the last number. Hundreds of people won, the payout was something like 3600 a person. And I believe that lump sum wasn't an option at the time. don't recall if the lottery made an exception in this case. There were reports of people watching the drawing, thinking they won all the money to themselves, calling their bosses and quitting. Only to have to go crawling back and beg for their jobs back.
 
2012-11-27 01:19:52 PM  

MatrixOutsider: /raises hand

Uhh, Mr. Kotter, what if the numbers you should stay away from are the numbers that are picked as part of the winning combination? Isn't better to share a jackpot than not to win one at all?


Well, if you know in advance what the winning numbers were, you'd sure better pick them. If you have zero knowledge of the numbers, the best you can do is maximize your expected return by avoiding common number sets.
 
2012-11-27 01:27:57 PM  

MatrixOutsider: /raises hand

Uhh, Mr. Kotter, what if the numbers you should stay away from are the numbers that are picked as part of the winning combination? Isn't better to share a jackpot than not to win one at all?


Because you don't know what the numbers are going to be in advance.

Put another way, would you prefer a 1 in a million chance to win $1,000,000 or a 1 in a million chance to win $100,000,000?
 
2012-11-27 01:36:36 PM  

lewismarktwo: The best chance is playing the same numbers every single drawing without fail. Still shiatty odds tho.


I hope you know how wrong this is. Your odds of winning are the same if you play the same numbers every time or if you play randomly chosen numbers every time. The only way you could rationalize your view is if you think that every time your number doesn't come up, your chances increase for your number to come up. Which isn't the case.
 
2012-11-27 01:52:44 PM  
Pocket Ninja: 10/10

/Well done
//Can't believe how many bit
 
2012-11-27 01:52:48 PM  

dywed88: MatrixOutsider: /raises hand

Uhh, Mr. Kotter, what if the numbers you should stay away from are the numbers that are picked as part of the winning combination? Isn't better to share a jackpot than not to win one at all?

Because you don't know what the numbers are going to be in advance.

Put another way, would you prefer a 1 in a million chance to win $1,000,000 or a 1 in a million chance to win $100,000,000?


Interesting, but if you limit the combination pool by avoiding several numbers, wouldn't you be decreasing your odds of winning? Isn't it better to choose from the entire combination pool?
 
2012-11-27 01:56:46 PM  

MatrixOutsider: dywed88: MatrixOutsider: /raises hand

Uhh, Mr. Kotter, what if the numbers you should stay away from are the numbers that are picked as part of the winning combination? Isn't better to share a jackpot than not to win one at all?

Because you don't know what the numbers are going to be in advance.

Put another way, would you prefer a 1 in a million chance to win $1,000,000 or a 1 in a million chance to win $100,000,000?

Interesting, but if you limit the combination pool by avoiding several numbers, wouldn't you be decreasing your odds of winning? Isn't it better to choose from the entire combination pool?


That only makes sense if you're playing every combination (for the same drawing). If you play only one set of numbers, it doesn't matter if you exclude certain ones. Your odds of winning are still the same because the odds of your numbers coming up are the same.
 
2012-11-27 02:02:08 PM  

Grobbley: lewismarktwo: The best chance is playing the same numbers every single drawing without fail. Still shiatty odds tho.

I hope you know how wrong this is. Your odds of winning are the same if you play the same numbers every time or if you play randomly chosen numbers every time. The only way you could rationalize your view is if you think that every time your number doesn't come up, your chances increase for your number to come up. Which isn't the case.


Yeah maybe statistically, but in the real world it matters. Quarks man. Bosons.
 
2012-11-27 02:15:45 PM  

NeoCortex42: LineNoise: lewismarktwo: It makes perfect sense. People use those numbers more, meaning that if those numbers DO win, you'll have a greater chance of having to share. It doesn't have anything to do with the probability of winning at all.


I wonder if the raw data is available to confirm this. I mean, I have to imagine the overwhelming number of tickets sold, especially when the jackpot gets this big, is from the random generated numbers. So you aren't going to have anything psychologically favoring special numbers there (we could debate the true randomness of those random numbers, but that is a different thread).

So lets say you have 80% of your tickets sold randomly, and 20% where people picked the numbers, out of like a billion tickets sold.

Of those 20%, how many people avoid "special" numbers for the very reason in this thread? How many favor high numbers to avoid having to split with birthday people, etc.

I'd wager that it pretty much comes out to be a wash.

Here's a fun story showing the problem: Link
Last year, four of the six numbers in a Mega Millions drawing matched the Lost numbers. Over 40,000 people were playing those numbers.

Birthday numbers mean you're probably splitting the plot with a couple tickets or so. if you play "special" sequences, like the Lost numbers or Fibonacci numbers, you're probably going to end up splitting with a ton of people.


And I was one of those people! LOL
 
2012-11-27 02:17:12 PM  
Math doesn't quite work that way. You would need 1688 people buying those 103,672 tickets each to "guarantee" that win. You are "weighing" the purchase for some of your people in your pool.

I'd go in to it in further detail but right now I am working on very little sleep.

Pocket Ninja: What a lot of people don't understand about winning the lottery is that it really isn't all that hard as long as you understand one key element of the entire equation: it's math, not luck, that matters. Specifically, it's the extrapolatables. You have to understand how the extrapolatables work to really get a clear picture of your real chances and what a sound investment in your lottery strategy will be. See, it's popular in news media to quote a figure you may have heard before: each player has a 1 in 175,000,000 chance of winning. Which sounds, let's be frank, pretty bad. But that's just the raw data with no extrapolatables added to it!

So let's examine what this truly means. 1 in 175,000,000 means that every time you play the lottery, you've got to play 175,000,000 times before you win. Which gives a totally advantage to people who've been playing for a long time -- I mean, some guy who's been buying tickets for years versus you, when it's your first time? Why is that even allowed? It shouldn't be if they want a fair competition. So, to even the playing field, what you really want to do is assemble a team of people who've been playing the lottery for a long time. So, like, say you have five friends who are experienced lottery players:

Buford: has played a total of 43 times
Henrietta: has played 112 times
Artie: has played 89 times
Gomer: has played 1,122 times, but those are just scratch-offs so they only count half (561)
Lucinda: has played 321 times

Now, add up (extrapolate) the total plays you have on your team: 1687.

So, now your chances, including yours, would appear to be 1688 in 175,000,000. But extrapolate that again and you find that that it's really works down to about 1 in 103,672. A great improvement, I'd say! So now each member of your team only needs to buy that many tickets (103, 672) to have a virtually 100 percent chance of winning.

Yes, of course, that still represents a significant investment. Tickets cost $2 each, so if you extrapolate ...

 
2012-11-27 02:34:02 PM  

not5am: there was a reasonable study done earlier this year during the whole mega thing that it was econmically feasible to buy a ticket after the jackpot hit a certain amount.


A counter study shot that one down
 
2012-11-27 02:37:50 PM  

SweetMama: Actually, the tip is mathematically correct. It's about expected value. Sharing the award reduces the expected value. To maximize the expected value, you try to avoid sharing the award. Granted, it's not a very good strategy. But it's the only strategy. There isn't anything else. You can't improve your chance of winning, but you can increase your expected value. So the advice, while counter-intuitive, is technically correct.


Someone above posted an alternative strategy: don't play. Your odds of finding the winning ticket on the side of the road are roughly equal to your chances of winning if you play. That's the strategy I've been using all my life and I'm ahead of almost everyone who plays so it seems to be working for me.
 
2012-11-27 02:44:21 PM  
Gonna win. See ya!
 
2012-11-27 02:53:45 PM  
Wow, a thread on the lottery, and no one has yet called it a "tax on the stupid?"

Fark, I am disappoint.
 
2012-11-27 03:01:50 PM  

Jon iz teh kewl: Billy Bathsalt: I tried to play my lucky numbers 7,7,7,7,7 and powerball 7, but the evil lottery lady refused to sell me the ticket. Fascists.

duh. you only played 5 7's your supposed to pick 6


He should pick 7.
 
2012-11-27 03:10:27 PM  

SweetMama: Actually, the tip is mathematically correct. It's about expected value. Sharing the award reduces the expected value. To maximize the expected value, you try to avoid sharing the award. Granted, it's not a very good strategy. But it's the only strategy. There isn't anything else. You can't improve your chance of winning, but you can increase your expected value. So the advice, while counter-intuitive, is technically correct.


FINALLY. It really took three pages for someone to bring up expected value? Nice work.

To expand/restate: A ticket with "popular" numbers such as the date of the drawing is worth less than one without, because if it wins you get less money.
 
2012-11-27 03:36:55 PM  

editer: SweetMama: Actually, the tip is mathematically correct. It's about expected value. Sharing the award reduces the expected value. To maximize the expected value, you try to avoid sharing the award. Granted, it's not a very good strategy. But it's the only strategy. There isn't anything else. You can't improve your chance of winning, but you can increase your expected value. So the advice, while counter-intuitive, is technically correct.

FINALLY. It really took three pages for someone to bring up expected value? Nice work.

To expand/restate: A ticket with "popular" numbers such as the date of the drawing is worth less than one without, because if it wins you get less money.


Ummm... If it wins you get less money... Wouldn't you get more money since the ticket won? In other words, while you may need to split the winnings with other people the fact that the ticket won makes it more valuable than all the other tickets that lost. Does not matter if the numbers were popular or not- only 1 sequence out of 175,000,000 will win, making that ticket worth more than the other 174,999,999 tickets. Sequence 123,456,789 is worth just as much as sequence 146,246,790 if they both lose- both are worht $0 regardless of the popularity of their numbers.
 
2012-11-27 03:42:14 PM  

havana_joe: editer: SweetMama: Actually, the tip is mathematically correct. It's about expected value. Sharing the award reduces the expected value. To maximize the expected value, you try to avoid sharing the award. Granted, it's not a very good strategy. But it's the only strategy. There isn't anything else. You can't improve your chance of winning, but you can increase your expected value. So the advice, while counter-intuitive, is technically correct.

FINALLY. It really took three pages for someone to bring up expected value? Nice work.

To expand/restate: A ticket with "popular" numbers such as the date of the drawing is worth less than one without, because if it wins you get less money.

Ummm... If it wins you get less money... Wouldn't you get more money since the ticket won? In other words, while you may need to split the winnings with other people the fact that the ticket won makes it more valuable than all the other tickets that lost. Does not matter if the numbers were popular or not- only 1 sequence out of 175,000,000 will win, making that ticket worth more than the other 174,999,999 tickets. Sequence 123,456,789 is worth just as much as sequence 146,246,790 if they both lose- both are worht $0 regardless of the popularity of their numbers.


You're thinking about it after the results are known. Before the drawing, you don't know what the winning numbers are. In that case, all results have equal probability of occurring. By choosing "unpopular" numbers, you can increase the share of the pot you get if you do win.
 
2012-11-27 03:59:03 PM  

NeoCortex42: havana_joe: editer: SweetMama: Actually, the tip is mathematically correct. It's about expected value. Sharing the award reduces the expected value. To maximize the expected value, you try to avoid sharing the award. Granted, it's not a very good strategy. But it's the only strategy. There isn't anything else. You can't improve your chance of winning, but you can increase your expected value. So the advice, while counter-intuitive, is technically correct.

FINALLY. It really took three pages for someone to bring up expected value? Nice work.

To expand/restate: A ticket with "popular" numbers such as the date of the drawing is worth less than one without, because if it wins you get less money.

Ummm... If it wins you get less money... Wouldn't you get more money since the ticket won? In other words, while you may need to split the winnings with other people the fact that the ticket won makes it more valuable than all the other tickets that lost. Does not matter if the numbers were popular or not- only 1 sequence out of 175,000,000 will win, making that ticket worth more than the other 174,999,999 tickets. Sequence 123,456,789 is worth just as much as sequence 146,246,790 if they both lose- both are worht $0 regardless of the popularity of their numbers.

You're thinking about it after the results are known. Before the drawing, you don't know what the winning numbers are. In that case, all results have equal probability of occurring. By choosing "unpopular" numbers, you can increase the share of the pot you get if you do win.


Ok! That does make sense!
 
2012-11-27 04:09:56 PM  

Mentat: [img526.imageshack.us image 320x240]

PROBABILITIES DO NOT WORK THAT WAY


FTFA: The only way to increase the chances of winning the Powerball is to buy more tickets.

For Americans hoping to score big like the Nebraska 8, experts shared these tips with ABC News today:


No problem with probabilities there. If you pick common numbers it is more likely that someone else has that combo. The stupid part is even considering how to avoid sharing something you have a 1:175,000,000 chance of getting.

/knows how teh probabilities work.
 
2012-11-27 04:42:57 PM  
And the jackpot is now up to half a billion dollars.

Holy shiat, if one person manages to win it.
 
2012-11-27 05:20:11 PM  

NeoCortex42: And the jackpot is now up to half a billion dollars.

Holy shiat, if one person manages to win it.


Unlikely now that it is this high. Nice to dream about anyway.
 
2012-11-27 05:29:27 PM  

Lt. Cheese Weasel: NeoCortex42: And the jackpot is now up to half a billion dollars.

Holy shiat, if one person manages to win it.

Unlikely now that it is this high. Nice to dream about anyway.


You're right, but we probably all thought the same thing before the big jackpot that the guy from Michigan won earlier this year.
Personally, I'm expecting three or four winners. Hopefully I can count myself among them.
 
2012-11-27 05:41:48 PM  

NeoCortex42: Lt. Cheese Weasel: NeoCortex42: And the jackpot is now up to half a billion dollars.

Holy shiat, if one person manages to win it.

Unlikely now that it is this high. Nice to dream about anyway.

You're right, but we probably all thought the same thing before the big jackpot that the guy from Michigan won earlier this year.
Personally, I'm expecting three or four winners. Hopefully I can count myself among them.


When I win, I'll show up in a Guy Fawkes mask and tell everyone my name is Mr. Cheese from Fark, write a big check to the Childrens Miracle Network, another to St. Judes Regional Childrens, and then disappear in a cloud of smoke like Batman.
 
2012-11-27 05:45:03 PM  

havana_joe: You don't even have to buy a ticket to win the lottery. It's technically possible that you find the winning ticket on the side of the road after someone dropped it or a friend/family member buys you a ticket without your knowledge and that ticket ends up being the winner.
Sure, the odds of either event are remote but not impossible; therefore you don't even have to play the lottery to actually win the lottery!


This must explain the larger than normal number of hobos I saw under the High Five overpass this morning.
 
2012-11-27 07:13:48 PM  

Lt. Cheese Weasel: havana_joe: You don't even have to buy a ticket to win the lottery. It's technically possible that you find the winning ticket on the side of the road after someone dropped it or a friend/family member buys you a ticket without your knowledge and that ticket ends up being the winner.
Sure, the odds of either event are remote but not impossible; therefore you don't even have to play the lottery to actually win the lottery!

This must explain the larger than normal number of hobos I saw under the High Five overpass this morning.


I'm just saying it's not technically impossible to win without playing.
 
2012-11-27 07:18:41 PM  
The advice is correct. Although the odds of any one combination of hitting is the same as any other single combination, if you pick less-common numbers you have a better chance of not splitting it. One person you will be splitting it with is Uncle Sam. Alsom, if you get the lump sum, it's a smaller number.

There is no edge, even if the jackpot is greater than the number of tickets to win would indicate.
 
2012-11-27 08:08:06 PM  

Pocket Ninja: Always consider the extrapolatables, people. Always.


Are those like the Statisticals that proved John McCain won?
 
2012-11-28 11:13:48 AM  

cartooned: The article also says
"However, the more people buy tickets, the worse a person's chances get."
Ummm...

Also, Pocket Ninja, I'm not a math whiz but it doesn't work that way. Your odds of matching the numbers are 1 in 175,000,000 EVERY TIME YOU PLAY, whether you play once or 100,000 times. The only way to bring that statistic down is to play different numbers for the same drawing. play 2 different numbers on 2 tickets in one drawing and your odds are halfed. Play 2 different numbers on 2 tickets in 2 different drawings and the odds are still 1 in 175,000,000 each time.


I think the article is about winning the FULL amount, so in that case it's true, your chances of winning the jackpot, and not having to share with 1-100 people is higher the fewer people that play/or buy multi tickets.
 
2012-11-29 09:47:13 AM  
I just wonder how dumb you have to be to not understand pocket ninjas post was tongue in cheek?

Probably buying lottery ticket and expecting to win dumb.
 
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