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(Yahoo)   Tip #5 on winning the $425,000,000 Powerball: "Stay away from common lucky numbers like 3, 7 and 11 as well as numbers under 31 because they could be popular calendar dates like birthdays and anniversaries and would mean sharing the jackpot"   (news.yahoo.com) divider line 156
    More: Stupid, Powerball, calendar date, mess, celebrations, ABC News, Sharyn Alfonsi, Spartacus  
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2718 clicks; posted to Main » on 27 Nov 2012 at 10:29 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-27 11:38:35 AM  

SurfaceTension: Who actually plays the lottery with a strategy to win? If you're doing that then you've got bigger issues than which numbers to play. Just do it for fun, to let yourself dream a little. That's what I'm paying for when I buy a ticket.


/Agree
 
2012-11-27 11:41:29 AM  

SurfaceTension: Who actually plays the lottery with a strategy to win? If you're doing that then you've got bigger issues than which numbers to play.


My father has been profiting off the Pick 3 for six months now. He has some bizarre "wheeling" system that should not work but has worked to the tune of about an extra $40/week as a hobby. I want to put a shotgun in my mouth and pull the trigger with my toes every time he tries to explain it to me, but he has proven that he is winning to my satisfaction and it's really upsetting my entire worldview.
 
2012-11-27 11:45:04 AM  
In 2006, eight meatpacking workers - called the "Nebraska 8? - struck gold in Lincoln, Neb., with a single ticket chosen by a computer. They won $365 million - the biggest lottery payout in U.S. history.

Before they even get into their 'tips' they pretty much shoot down their own article.
 
2012-11-27 11:47:43 AM  

Special J: In 2006, eight meatpacking workers - called the "Nebraska 8? - struck gold in Lincoln, Neb., with a single ticket chosen by a computer. They won $365 million - the biggest lottery payout in U.S. history.

Before they even get into their 'tips' they pretty much shoot down their own article.


at least they weren't fudgepacking
like Tom Cruise

images3.cliqueclack.com
 
2012-11-27 11:48:06 AM  
My boss is collecting $2 from us for the office pool so I'm getting a kick out of these replies.

Who plays stratagy? EP the numbers and let them ride. The idea is that you're not a part of half of the building that is left behind when the other half wins and quits. ($2 is ok for my santiy of not cleaing up the mess left behind).
 
2012-11-27 11:54:14 AM  

hypocaffeinemia: Nemnoch: So.. if I buy 175,000,000 tickets then I am guaranteed to win the $278,000,000 right? I'll jump right on that!

Tickets cost $2, which means you just lost $72 million. Bravo, good sir.


Lesser combos win too. You cant lose
 
2012-11-27 11:54:48 AM  
There was a draw recently in the UK where 6 people matched 6 numbers out of 49 and split the Jackpot six ways. Only 1 person matched any 5 plus the bonus ball and ended up winning 50% more than each of the jackpot winners, so trying to identify unlikely combinations of numbers to pick is well worth doing.

About 15 years ago, one draw consisted entirely of numbers from the 2 central columns of the ticket and 133 people won the Jackpot (and a mere £120,000 rather than the life changing £15m+ they might have been expecting!)
 
2012-11-27 11:56:48 AM  

ginko: My boss is collecting $2 from us for the office pool so I'm getting a kick out of these replies.

Who plays stratagy? EP the numbers and let them ride. The idea is that you're not a part of half of the building that is left behind when the other half wins and quits. ($2 is ok for my santiy of not cleaing up the mess left behind).


Make sure you get a copy of tickets.
 
2012-11-27 11:57:11 AM  
Just having fun thinking about what I'd do with $400M is worth the $20 I throw in two or three times a year. Astronomical though the odds are, you DO have to be in it to win it.
 
2012-11-27 11:57:47 AM  

zipdog: Tip #7: Don't play unless you can afford to pay the millions of dollars in taxes that will be levied against you.


Tip #7b: Do not ever take tax advice from zipdog.
 
2012-11-27 12:03:55 PM  

sid244: ginko: My boss is collecting $2 from us for the office pool so I'm getting a kick out of these replies.

Who plays stratagy? EP the numbers and let them ride. The idea is that you're not a part of half of the building that is left behind when the other half wins and quits. ($2 is ok for my santiy of not cleaing up the mess left behind).

Make sure you get a copy of tickets.


We do, he's very straight forward and emails us the tickets in a PDF so we can check them at home. If I come in and no one else is my dept the next morning, I know I missed the numbers.
 
2012-11-27 12:09:45 PM  

cartooned: The article also says
"However, the more people buy tickets, the worse a person's chances get."
Ummm...

Also, Pocket Ninja, I'm not a math whiz but it doesn't work that way. Your odds of matching the numbers are 1 in 175,000,000 EVERY TIME YOU PLAY, whether you play once or 100,000 times. The only way to bring that statistic down is to play different numbers for the same drawing. play 2 different numbers on 2 tickets in one drawing and your odds are halfed. Play 2 different numbers on 2 tickets in 2 different drawings and the odds are still 1 in 175,000,000 each time.


You can't prove that. I'd like to see the study on how many times each lottery winner played before winning. That would tell you right out the average number of times you need to play, then once you hit that, you know you're just a play or two from winning big!
 
2012-11-27 12:11:45 PM  
If i win, you aint gettin shiat
 
2012-11-27 12:12:44 PM  
I am so going to kick your arse at lottery this week! Bring it, mofo!

/competitive lottery team!
 
2012-11-27 12:15:21 PM  
But those are all Prime Numbers!
 
2012-11-27 12:19:43 PM  
Got this from a guy that knows the Mailman that delivered a letter to a guy who's sister once dated a guy that knew a cousin of a big time finical guy that once went to Maui and surfed with a friend of waiter that worked in a Restaurant that served the Manager of a Rock Star's roadie that buys weed from a kid that worked at 7-11 when a fellow purchased a slurpie and on the back of the cup was the Number 3.

Do not play the #3.

Really, that is all.
 
2012-11-27 12:19:44 PM  

SurfaceTension: Who actually plays the lottery with a strategy to win?


The woman at :16 in this video Link
 
2012-11-27 12:35:54 PM  
If there was *any* possible way to stack the odds in your favor, even with a sizable investment, 2-3 kids from MIT would win every single time.
 
2012-11-27 12:43:35 PM  

NeoCortex42: I don't get why everybody gets so excited about the giant jackpots and suddenly puts down tens or hundreds of dollars on tickets. Was $40 or $50 million not enough? Is it not worth the cost of a cup of coffee until it hits ludicrous speed?

I'll buy an occasional ticket. I figure I'd be fortunate to hit that million dollar second prize. A jackpot, regardless of size, would be plenty for me for life.


there was a reasonable study done earlier this year during the whole mega thing that it was econmically feasible to buy a ticket after the jackpot hit a certain amount.
 
2012-11-27 12:48:38 PM  
You don't even have to buy a ticket to win the lottery. It's technically possible that you find the winning ticket on the side of the road after someone dropped it or a friend/family member buys you a ticket without your knowledge and that ticket ends up being the winner.
Sure, the odds of either event are remote but not impossible; therefore you don't even have to play the lottery to actually win the lottery!
 
2012-11-27 12:50:38 PM  
From a Farker since about 06' playing the lottery does pay off.
Crown Jewel 7 style.
You Tube the following:
Maryland Lottery Michael Brown.

Yep that's me.
I'm going for a double double this time.

Like another said TF FOR EVERYONE... And Drew, maybe a new Liver.

Mike
 
2012-11-27 12:56:29 PM  
Quick pick and forget it.

That's my strategy.

$425 million, you may as well contribute a couple bucks to your state's education fund. Maybe kids will learn how to spell definitely right or use 'than' instead of 'then'.


/3 tickets + power play
 
2012-11-27 01:02:34 PM  
/raises hand

Uhh, Mr. Kotter, what if the numbers you should stay away from are the numbers that are picked as part of the winning combination? Isn't better to share a jackpot than not to win one at all?
 
2012-11-27 01:04:07 PM  
Actually, the tip is mathematically correct. It's about expected value. Sharing the award reduces the expected value. To maximize the expected value, you try to avoid sharing the award. Granted, it's not a very good strategy. But it's the only strategy. There isn't anything else. You can't improve your chance of winning, but you can increase your expected value. So the advice, while counter-intuitive, is technically correct.
 
2012-11-27 01:11:06 PM  
850 chicks at once, man!
 
2012-11-27 01:11:16 PM  

cartooned: The article also says
"However, the more people buy tickets, the worse a person's chances get."
Ummm...

Also, Pocket Ninja, I'm not a math whiz but it doesn't work that way. Your odds of matching the numbers are 1 in 175,000,000 EVERY TIME YOU PLAY, whether you play once or 100,000 times. The only way to bring that statistic down is to play different numbers for the same drawing. play 2 different numbers on 2 tickets in one drawing and your odds are halfed. Play 2 different numbers on 2 tickets in 2 different drawings and the odds are still 1 in 175,000,000 each time.


Cue "That's The Joke..." pic
 
2012-11-27 01:16:26 PM  
I've always played at least one number over 31 to avoid the calendar pickers.

There was a mass megabucks (before it went multi-state) drawing back in the early '80s that had a jackpot in the mid 7 figures. The winning numbers were all single digits. Almost sequential, too, except for the last number. Hundreds of people won, the payout was something like 3600 a person. And I believe that lump sum wasn't an option at the time. don't recall if the lottery made an exception in this case. There were reports of people watching the drawing, thinking they won all the money to themselves, calling their bosses and quitting. Only to have to go crawling back and beg for their jobs back.
 
2012-11-27 01:19:52 PM  

MatrixOutsider: /raises hand

Uhh, Mr. Kotter, what if the numbers you should stay away from are the numbers that are picked as part of the winning combination? Isn't better to share a jackpot than not to win one at all?


Well, if you know in advance what the winning numbers were, you'd sure better pick them. If you have zero knowledge of the numbers, the best you can do is maximize your expected return by avoiding common number sets.
 
2012-11-27 01:27:57 PM  

MatrixOutsider: /raises hand

Uhh, Mr. Kotter, what if the numbers you should stay away from are the numbers that are picked as part of the winning combination? Isn't better to share a jackpot than not to win one at all?


Because you don't know what the numbers are going to be in advance.

Put another way, would you prefer a 1 in a million chance to win $1,000,000 or a 1 in a million chance to win $100,000,000?
 
2012-11-27 01:36:36 PM  

lewismarktwo: The best chance is playing the same numbers every single drawing without fail. Still shiatty odds tho.


I hope you know how wrong this is. Your odds of winning are the same if you play the same numbers every time or if you play randomly chosen numbers every time. The only way you could rationalize your view is if you think that every time your number doesn't come up, your chances increase for your number to come up. Which isn't the case.
 
2012-11-27 01:52:44 PM  
Pocket Ninja: 10/10

/Well done
//Can't believe how many bit
 
2012-11-27 01:52:48 PM  

dywed88: MatrixOutsider: /raises hand

Uhh, Mr. Kotter, what if the numbers you should stay away from are the numbers that are picked as part of the winning combination? Isn't better to share a jackpot than not to win one at all?

Because you don't know what the numbers are going to be in advance.

Put another way, would you prefer a 1 in a million chance to win $1,000,000 or a 1 in a million chance to win $100,000,000?


Interesting, but if you limit the combination pool by avoiding several numbers, wouldn't you be decreasing your odds of winning? Isn't it better to choose from the entire combination pool?
 
2012-11-27 01:56:46 PM  

MatrixOutsider: dywed88: MatrixOutsider: /raises hand

Uhh, Mr. Kotter, what if the numbers you should stay away from are the numbers that are picked as part of the winning combination? Isn't better to share a jackpot than not to win one at all?

Because you don't know what the numbers are going to be in advance.

Put another way, would you prefer a 1 in a million chance to win $1,000,000 or a 1 in a million chance to win $100,000,000?

Interesting, but if you limit the combination pool by avoiding several numbers, wouldn't you be decreasing your odds of winning? Isn't it better to choose from the entire combination pool?


That only makes sense if you're playing every combination (for the same drawing). If you play only one set of numbers, it doesn't matter if you exclude certain ones. Your odds of winning are still the same because the odds of your numbers coming up are the same.
 
2012-11-27 02:02:08 PM  

Grobbley: lewismarktwo: The best chance is playing the same numbers every single drawing without fail. Still shiatty odds tho.

I hope you know how wrong this is. Your odds of winning are the same if you play the same numbers every time or if you play randomly chosen numbers every time. The only way you could rationalize your view is if you think that every time your number doesn't come up, your chances increase for your number to come up. Which isn't the case.


Yeah maybe statistically, but in the real world it matters. Quarks man. Bosons.
 
2012-11-27 02:15:45 PM  

NeoCortex42: LineNoise: lewismarktwo: It makes perfect sense. People use those numbers more, meaning that if those numbers DO win, you'll have a greater chance of having to share. It doesn't have anything to do with the probability of winning at all.


I wonder if the raw data is available to confirm this. I mean, I have to imagine the overwhelming number of tickets sold, especially when the jackpot gets this big, is from the random generated numbers. So you aren't going to have anything psychologically favoring special numbers there (we could debate the true randomness of those random numbers, but that is a different thread).

So lets say you have 80% of your tickets sold randomly, and 20% where people picked the numbers, out of like a billion tickets sold.

Of those 20%, how many people avoid "special" numbers for the very reason in this thread? How many favor high numbers to avoid having to split with birthday people, etc.

I'd wager that it pretty much comes out to be a wash.

Here's a fun story showing the problem: Link
Last year, four of the six numbers in a Mega Millions drawing matched the Lost numbers. Over 40,000 people were playing those numbers.

Birthday numbers mean you're probably splitting the plot with a couple tickets or so. if you play "special" sequences, like the Lost numbers or Fibonacci numbers, you're probably going to end up splitting with a ton of people.


And I was one of those people! LOL
 
2012-11-27 02:17:12 PM  
Math doesn't quite work that way. You would need 1688 people buying those 103,672 tickets each to "guarantee" that win. You are "weighing" the purchase for some of your people in your pool.

I'd go in to it in further detail but right now I am working on very little sleep.

Pocket Ninja: What a lot of people don't understand about winning the lottery is that it really isn't all that hard as long as you understand one key element of the entire equation: it's math, not luck, that matters. Specifically, it's the extrapolatables. You have to understand how the extrapolatables work to really get a clear picture of your real chances and what a sound investment in your lottery strategy will be. See, it's popular in news media to quote a figure you may have heard before: each player has a 1 in 175,000,000 chance of winning. Which sounds, let's be frank, pretty bad. But that's just the raw data with no extrapolatables added to it!

So let's examine what this truly means. 1 in 175,000,000 means that every time you play the lottery, you've got to play 175,000,000 times before you win. Which gives a totally advantage to people who've been playing for a long time -- I mean, some guy who's been buying tickets for years versus you, when it's your first time? Why is that even allowed? It shouldn't be if they want a fair competition. So, to even the playing field, what you really want to do is assemble a team of people who've been playing the lottery for a long time. So, like, say you have five friends who are experienced lottery players:

Buford: has played a total of 43 times
Henrietta: has played 112 times
Artie: has played 89 times
Gomer: has played 1,122 times, but those are just scratch-offs so they only count half (561)
Lucinda: has played 321 times

Now, add up (extrapolate) the total plays you have on your team: 1687.

So, now your chances, including yours, would appear to be 1688 in 175,000,000. But extrapolate that again and you find that that it's really works down to about 1 in 103,672. A great improvement, I'd say! So now each member of your team only needs to buy that many tickets (103, 672) to have a virtually 100 percent chance of winning.

Yes, of course, that still represents a significant investment. Tickets cost $2 each, so if you extrapolate ...

 
2012-11-27 02:34:02 PM  

not5am: there was a reasonable study done earlier this year during the whole mega thing that it was econmically feasible to buy a ticket after the jackpot hit a certain amount.


A counter study shot that one down
 
2012-11-27 02:37:50 PM  

SweetMama: Actually, the tip is mathematically correct. It's about expected value. Sharing the award reduces the expected value. To maximize the expected value, you try to avoid sharing the award. Granted, it's not a very good strategy. But it's the only strategy. There isn't anything else. You can't improve your chance of winning, but you can increase your expected value. So the advice, while counter-intuitive, is technically correct.


Someone above posted an alternative strategy: don't play. Your odds of finding the winning ticket on the side of the road are roughly equal to your chances of winning if you play. That's the strategy I've been using all my life and I'm ahead of almost everyone who plays so it seems to be working for me.
 
2012-11-27 02:44:21 PM  
Gonna win. See ya!
 
2012-11-27 02:53:45 PM  
Wow, a thread on the lottery, and no one has yet called it a "tax on the stupid?"

Fark, I am disappoint.
 
2012-11-27 03:01:50 PM  

Jon iz teh kewl: Billy Bathsalt: I tried to play my lucky numbers 7,7,7,7,7 and powerball 7, but the evil lottery lady refused to sell me the ticket. Fascists.

duh. you only played 5 7's your supposed to pick 6


He should pick 7.
 
2012-11-27 03:10:27 PM  

SweetMama: Actually, the tip is mathematically correct. It's about expected value. Sharing the award reduces the expected value. To maximize the expected value, you try to avoid sharing the award. Granted, it's not a very good strategy. But it's the only strategy. There isn't anything else. You can't improve your chance of winning, but you can increase your expected value. So the advice, while counter-intuitive, is technically correct.


FINALLY. It really took three pages for someone to bring up expected value? Nice work.

To expand/restate: A ticket with "popular" numbers such as the date of the drawing is worth less than one without, because if it wins you get less money.
 
2012-11-27 03:36:55 PM  

editer: SweetMama: Actually, the tip is mathematically correct. It's about expected value. Sharing the award reduces the expected value. To maximize the expected value, you try to avoid sharing the award. Granted, it's not a very good strategy. But it's the only strategy. There isn't anything else. You can't improve your chance of winning, but you can increase your expected value. So the advice, while counter-intuitive, is technically correct.

FINALLY. It really took three pages for someone to bring up expected value? Nice work.

To expand/restate: A ticket with "popular" numbers such as the date of the drawing is worth less than one without, because if it wins you get less money.


Ummm... If it wins you get less money... Wouldn't you get more money since the ticket won? In other words, while you may need to split the winnings with other people the fact that the ticket won makes it more valuable than all the other tickets that lost. Does not matter if the numbers were popular or not- only 1 sequence out of 175,000,000 will win, making that ticket worth more than the other 174,999,999 tickets. Sequence 123,456,789 is worth just as much as sequence 146,246,790 if they both lose- both are worht $0 regardless of the popularity of their numbers.
 
2012-11-27 03:42:14 PM  

havana_joe: editer: SweetMama: Actually, the tip is mathematically correct. It's about expected value. Sharing the award reduces the expected value. To maximize the expected value, you try to avoid sharing the award. Granted, it's not a very good strategy. But it's the only strategy. There isn't anything else. You can't improve your chance of winning, but you can increase your expected value. So the advice, while counter-intuitive, is technically correct.

FINALLY. It really took three pages for someone to bring up expected value? Nice work.

To expand/restate: A ticket with "popular" numbers such as the date of the drawing is worth less than one without, because if it wins you get less money.

Ummm... If it wins you get less money... Wouldn't you get more money since the ticket won? In other words, while you may need to split the winnings with other people the fact that the ticket won makes it more valuable than all the other tickets that lost. Does not matter if the numbers were popular or not- only 1 sequence out of 175,000,000 will win, making that ticket worth more than the other 174,999,999 tickets. Sequence 123,456,789 is worth just as much as sequence 146,246,790 if they both lose- both are worht $0 regardless of the popularity of their numbers.


You're thinking about it after the results are known. Before the drawing, you don't know what the winning numbers are. In that case, all results have equal probability of occurring. By choosing "unpopular" numbers, you can increase the share of the pot you get if you do win.
 
2012-11-27 03:59:03 PM  

NeoCortex42: havana_joe: editer: SweetMama: Actually, the tip is mathematically correct. It's about expected value. Sharing the award reduces the expected value. To maximize the expected value, you try to avoid sharing the award. Granted, it's not a very good strategy. But it's the only strategy. There isn't anything else. You can't improve your chance of winning, but you can increase your expected value. So the advice, while counter-intuitive, is technically correct.

FINALLY. It really took three pages for someone to bring up expected value? Nice work.

To expand/restate: A ticket with "popular" numbers such as the date of the drawing is worth less than one without, because if it wins you get less money.

Ummm... If it wins you get less money... Wouldn't you get more money since the ticket won? In other words, while you may need to split the winnings with other people the fact that the ticket won makes it more valuable than all the other tickets that lost. Does not matter if the numbers were popular or not- only 1 sequence out of 175,000,000 will win, making that ticket worth more than the other 174,999,999 tickets. Sequence 123,456,789 is worth just as much as sequence 146,246,790 if they both lose- both are worht $0 regardless of the popularity of their numbers.

You're thinking about it after the results are known. Before the drawing, you don't know what the winning numbers are. In that case, all results have equal probability of occurring. By choosing "unpopular" numbers, you can increase the share of the pot you get if you do win.


Ok! That does make sense!
 
2012-11-27 04:09:56 PM  

Mentat: [img526.imageshack.us image 320x240]

PROBABILITIES DO NOT WORK THAT WAY


FTFA: The only way to increase the chances of winning the Powerball is to buy more tickets.

For Americans hoping to score big like the Nebraska 8, experts shared these tips with ABC News today:


No problem with probabilities there. If you pick common numbers it is more likely that someone else has that combo. The stupid part is even considering how to avoid sharing something you have a 1:175,000,000 chance of getting.

/knows how teh probabilities work.
 
2012-11-27 04:42:57 PM  
And the jackpot is now up to half a billion dollars.

Holy shiat, if one person manages to win it.
 
2012-11-27 05:20:11 PM  

NeoCortex42: And the jackpot is now up to half a billion dollars.

Holy shiat, if one person manages to win it.


Unlikely now that it is this high. Nice to dream about anyway.
 
2012-11-27 05:29:27 PM  

Lt. Cheese Weasel: NeoCortex42: And the jackpot is now up to half a billion dollars.

Holy shiat, if one person manages to win it.

Unlikely now that it is this high. Nice to dream about anyway.


You're right, but we probably all thought the same thing before the big jackpot that the guy from Michigan won earlier this year.
Personally, I'm expecting three or four winners. Hopefully I can count myself among them.
 
2012-11-27 05:41:48 PM  

NeoCortex42: Lt. Cheese Weasel: NeoCortex42: And the jackpot is now up to half a billion dollars.

Holy shiat, if one person manages to win it.

Unlikely now that it is this high. Nice to dream about anyway.

You're right, but we probably all thought the same thing before the big jackpot that the guy from Michigan won earlier this year.
Personally, I'm expecting three or four winners. Hopefully I can count myself among them.


When I win, I'll show up in a Guy Fawkes mask and tell everyone my name is Mr. Cheese from Fark, write a big check to the Childrens Miracle Network, another to St. Judes Regional Childrens, and then disappear in a cloud of smoke like Batman.
 
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