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(Politico)   Joe Scarborough apologizes to Nate Silver...kinda   (politico.com) divider line 113
    More: Followup, Nate Silver, Joe Scarborough, nate, Brian Epstein, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, presidential campaign, Morning Joe, elections in 2012  
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3922 clicks; posted to Politics » on 21 Nov 2012 at 10:09 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-21 11:04:04 AM

Uchiha_Cycliste: My liberal friends spent countless hours manically refreshing the "538" blog every three minutes or so throughout most of October seeking reassurance that President Obama would win.

well that's a f*cking lie.


Meh, more of an exaggeration. I did go there every couple of days (I'm a Lib) to catch up on the latest state polls, the rest of the MSM (of which 538 is now a part of) was worthless.
 
2012-11-21 11:04:12 AM

Uchiha_Cycliste: My liberal friends spent countless hours manically refreshing the "538" blog every three minutes or so throughout most of October seeking reassurance that President Obama would win.



well that's a f*cking lie.


I'm probably the most obsessive Liberal I know and I checked it no more than once a day.
 
2012-11-21 11:05:13 AM
I'm sorry you're a big skinny, flaming homo who makes up numbers to make himself and his fellow unwashed liberals happy. I'm sorry you got every state correct, making me look like a jackass. I'm sorry I don't know what a probability is. I'm sorry that I had to gin up ratings and viewership by flogging you as though you were the sole voter in this race thumbing his nose at the will of the people.

Bust mostly, I'm sorry that I got taken in by the same chuckleheaded farkups that hoodwinked the rest of my party.

// now, how can I go about making those very same mistakes again...
// ^ how you know his apology is insincere
 
2012-11-21 11:05:33 AM

Mercutio74: keylock71: It makes the show unwatchable for me. He's condescending, dismissive, and arrogant with absolutely no valid reason to be... As he is usually wrong. About everything.

Oh, I guess I forgot to introduce you to the modern GOP. GOP, this is keylock71. Key, this is the modern GOP. You guys have fun, i'm sure you have a lot to talk about.


It's true... Living in MA, I only get to see the GOP stupidity through the screens of my TV and Computer. We certainly have Republicans here in the Commonwealth, but they're pretty milquetoast compared to their counterparts in other states.


EyeballKid: keylock71: I like watching Mika make "My god, you're an idiot" faces at him, though.

Imagine if Willie Geist were allowed to set his countenance of disappointment on Joe. I'm pretty sure it says in his contract that he's not allowed to, though.

[i0.kym-cdn.com image 242x280]


Lol... Yeah Willie's got some good "Are you serious?" faces too.
 
2012-11-21 11:05:36 AM
Hm... unskewedfact.com is available...
 
2012-11-21 11:06:38 AM
The reaction to and view of polls were analogous to the way the debates were called.

Romney wins first debate:
Derposphere says, "ROMNEY WON!"
Real world says, "ROMNEY WON!"

Obama wins second and third debates:
Derposphere says, "ROMNEY WON!"
Real world says, "Obama won."

Pretty telling, that.
 
2012-11-21 11:11:28 AM
When's Joe gonna apologize for killing the intern he was boning?
 
2012-11-21 11:12:20 AM
If objective statistical models say your guy is losing, the fault is not in the math. The Obama camp knew what reality was and allocated resources accordingly. Whereas the Romney camp believed its own spin and believed states like Pennsylvania were in play.
 
2012-11-21 11:13:09 AM
Oh look, more cargo cult bullshiat from the right. "Well, he was right BUT IT'S STILL ALL VOODOO AND UNSKEWED HERP COULD HAVE BEEN RIGHT TOO BECAUSE I DON'T KNOW HOW TO MATH". No, you murdering slimeball, it's not voodoo. You can go pick up a book about statistics and learn this shiat yourself. Go fark yourself with a rusty normal curve, you reprehensible toad.
 
2012-11-21 11:14:07 AM

hubiestubert: The problem being, is that Silver doesn't pad out the polls to give "his" candidate a boost.


Hell - I might be wrong, but I'm sure I've read somewhere that Silver is a (sane) conservative.
 
2012-11-21 11:14:16 AM
That was a an interesting way to apologize. I mean, not dead intern interesting, but interesting.
 
2012-11-21 11:15:51 AM

Fluorescent Testicle: hubiestubert: The problem being, is that Silver doesn't pad out the polls to give "his" candidate a boost.

Hell - I might be wrong, but I'm sure I've read somewhere that Silver is a (sane) conservative.


He's actually a libertarian, I think.
 
2012-11-21 11:16:25 AM

mrshowrules: Uchiha_Cycliste: My liberal friends spent countless hours manically refreshing the "538" blog every three minutes or so throughout most of October seeking reassurance that President Obama would win.



well that's a f*cking lie.

I'm probably the most obsessive Liberal I know and I checked it no more than once a day.


I know several people who were definitely checking it more than once daily. For my part, I followed less frequently than usual in October, as that line started to dip. The reason for this is that it was looking less favorable for Obama, and even if Silver had predicted Romney would win, I believed his reliance on state polls to be reliable regardless of the outcome I desired. Not because he was suddenly becoming a mouthpiece for the right or some silliness. This letter is far from an apology, because it still paints Silver as partisan instead of admitting he's a statistician.
 
2012-11-21 11:18:31 AM
The issue that the pundits seem to be incapable of understanding is that Silver can simultaneously have left-leaning views and preferences while still correctly gathering and representing the available data in an unbiased way.

He gets called an idealogue because he doesn't pretend to have no opinon or preference - but then despite his track record of objective analysis, the political right just can't help assuming that he's cooking the books. It's not just a matter of being suspicious because Silver has a horse in the race, but that there is such a lack of comprehension that people can have both opinions and integrity at the same time.
 
2012-11-21 11:19:27 AM

not5am: that pointed to mr. obama's doom

what happened to respecting the office if not the man?


Generally, you only refer to him as President Obama in first reference of article, which Joe did, then Mr. Obama for the rest. This is standard practice, not disrespect.
 
2012-11-21 11:20:20 AM

mrshowrules: Uchiha_Cycliste: My liberal friends spent countless hours manically refreshing the "538" blog every three minutes or so throughout most of October seeking reassurance that President Obama would win.



well that's a f*cking lie.

I'm probably the most obsessive Liberal I know and I checked it no more than once a day.


No one was frantically hitting refresh on a webpage updated once a day. No one. Either joe has lying friends, no liberal friends and or he's just a liar. But it makes everything else he said suspect when he's willing to bend the truth so easily over something so stupid. Further, something who's sole intention was to insult.
 
2012-11-21 11:21:26 AM
... I was too tough on him and there's a 84.398264% chance I will be less dismissive of his good work in the future the same douchebag I've always been.
 
2012-11-21 11:22:29 AM

Fluorescent Testicle: hubiestubert: The problem being, is that Silver doesn't pad out the polls to give "his" candidate a boost.

Hell - I might be wrong, but I'm sure I've read somewhere that Silver is a (sane) conservative.


I believe he's said that he leans libertarian. I thought he's said that the reason he even really started paying attention to politics was because of congress mucking around in the whole online poker thing.
 
2012-11-21 11:23:07 AM

not5am: that pointed to mr. obama's doom

what happened to respecting the office if not the man?


"Can't you see that man is a ni-?"
 
2012-11-21 11:24:02 AM

HeartBurnKid: He's actually a libertarian, I think.


Ah, I was close, heh. Thanks. :)

(Clarification: I know that Hubie's a sane conservative and I'm a centre-right moderate and that we both voted for Obama, but I meant that Silver didn't necessarily have a preferred candidate. If he did, he was pretty tight-lipped about it.)
 
2012-11-21 11:24:21 AM
Silver became a sort of Maharishi Mahesh Yogi for liberals seeking peace and serenity during the turbulent 2012 presidential campaign.

So his opening statement is "the libs only believed Nate Silver was right cuz he had their guy in front, and if he didn't they would've been as retarded as us and had an unskewedpolls.com too"
journalism
 
2012-11-21 11:25:10 AM

Crabs_Can_Polevault: not5am: that pointed to mr. obama's doom

what happened to respecting the office if not the man?

"Can't you see that man is a ni-?"


www.morethings.com
 
2012-11-21 11:34:25 AM

Uchiha_Cycliste: mrshowrules: Uchiha_Cycliste: My liberal friends spent countless hours manically refreshing the "538" blog every three minutes or so throughout most of October seeking reassurance that President Obama would win.



well that's a f*cking lie.

I'm probably the most obsessive Liberal I know and I checked it no more than once a day.

No one was frantically hitting refresh on a webpage updated once a day. No one. Either joe has lying friends, no liberal friends and or he's just a liar. But it makes everything else he said suspect when he's willing to bend the truth so easily over something so stupid. Further, something who's sole intention was to insult.


I didn't call you a liar or what you posted a lie. Perhaps this person you know in no way represents the average or even obsessed Liberal. So even if true, it is just a cool story bro.
 
2012-11-21 11:36:30 AM

whollyholeyholy: mrshowrules: Uchiha_Cycliste: My liberal friends spent countless hours manically refreshing the "538" blog every three minutes or so throughout most of October seeking reassurance that President Obama would win.



well that's a f*cking lie.

I'm probably the most obsessive Liberal I know and I checked it no more than once a day.

I know several people who were definitely checking it more than once daily. For my part, I followed less frequently than usual in October, as that line started to dip. The reason for this is that it was looking less favorable for Obama, and even if Silver had predicted Romney would win, I believed his reliance on state polls to be reliable regardless of the outcome I desired. Not because he was suddenly becoming a mouthpiece for the right or some silliness. This letter is far from an apology, because it still paints Silver as partisan instead of admitting he's a statistician.


I only started checking it hourly when I was getting less updates on my 538 tweeter feed and my Windows 538 widget froze.

;o)
 
2012-11-21 11:37:12 AM

mrshowrules: Uchiha_Cycliste: mrshowrules: Uchiha_Cycliste: My liberal friends spent countless hours manically refreshing the "538" blog every three minutes or so throughout most of October seeking reassurance that President Obama would win.



well that's a f*cking lie.

I'm probably the most obsessive Liberal I know and I checked it no more than once a day.

No one was frantically hitting refresh on a webpage updated once a day. No one. Either joe has lying friends, no liberal friends and or he's just a liar. But it makes everything else he said suspect when he's willing to bend the truth so easily over something so stupid. Further, something who's sole intention was to insult.

I didn't call you a liar or what you posted a lie. Perhaps this person you know in no way represents the average or even obsessed Liberal. So even if true, it is just a cool story bro.


I misread your post. Please disregard.
 
2012-11-21 11:38:28 AM

Uchiha_Cycliste: well that's a f*cking lie.


Yeah, a guy who's that big a douchenozzle doesn't have any friends.
 
2012-11-21 11:42:39 AM
I don't see why Scarborough is apologizing. Nate Silver was wrong.

His last forecast had Obama with 313 electoral votes. Wrong! He had Romney with 225 electoral votes. Wrong!

He gave Romeny a 9.1% chance of winning. Since Romney's actual chance of winning is 0%, that's wrong, too!

Nate Silver. Wrong on the math. Wrong for America.
 
2012-11-21 11:44:04 AM
Even during Mitt Romney's post-debate surge, Silver put the president's chances of winning at around 75%.

Idiot can't even get this right.... at one point, Obama was down to 61% in Nate's analysis. Which if that was a state, Nate would have marked it "Slight obama", and another 2% lower he'd have called the race a "tossup".
 
2012-11-21 11:46:57 AM
When in the buttfarking Jesus is the GOP going to get it and stop marginalizing themselves?

Let's hope, never.
 
2012-11-21 11:51:01 AM
Joe, you chucklefark, please understand there is a difference between making a prediction from the subjective position of 'all those years in politics' is not the same as an outlining probabilities based on years of information.
 
2012-11-21 11:55:00 AM

BSABSVR: That was a an interesting way to apologize. I mean, not dead intern interesting, but interesting.


This is the funniest of the "Joe killed somebody" jokes.
 
2012-11-21 11:55:31 AM

falcon176: So his opening statement is "the libs only believed Nate Silver was right cuz he had their guy in front, and if he didn't they would've been as retarded as us and had an unskewedpolls.com too"
journalism


I prefer to read it as "liberals turn to reality for comfort".
 
2012-11-21 11:55:59 AM
Scarborough can't really apologize because an honest apology would be "As a pundit my only job is to say my opinions loudly. I can't and won't base my views on researched facts because I like to get to the bar before it fills up during happy hour. I had to try to discredit Nate Silver because he is doing actual verifiable work that makes my election coverage irrelevant."
 
2012-11-21 11:57:42 AM
"Oh, Sweet Jesus."
 
2012-11-21 11:59:26 AM
Did joe apologize for killing the intern he was having an illicit sexual relationship with? Why would he apologize to Nate Silver for that? Did Nate predict the murder?
 
2012-11-21 12:00:36 PM
I love the rare times when Maddow and Scarborough are together. He just seems desperate to say anything at all even slightly intelligent when he's around her,
 
2012-11-21 12:01:27 PM

cousin-merle: not5am: that pointed to mr. obama's doom

what happened to respecting the office if not the man?

Generally, you only refer to him as President Obama in first reference of article, which Joe did, then Mr. Obama for the rest. This is standard practice, not disrespect.


That is incorrect. This is not 2012, not 1950.

Standard modern journalistic practice is to use the title and full name upon first mention, and the last name alone for subsequent mentions. Also, "Mister" is no longer used as a title.

So, it's either President Barack Obama, or Obama. Just using President Obama might also be acceptable, but Mr. Obama is not an acceptable designation. 

Source: 2012 AP Style Guide
 
2012-11-21 12:02:22 PM

DemonEater: Uchiha_Cycliste: well that's a f*cking lie.

Yeah, a guy who's that big a douchenozzle doesn't have any friends.


I think it's both. So we get what he imagines liberals to be.
 
2012-11-21 12:02:58 PM

mrshowrules: mrshowrules: Uchiha_Cycliste: mrshowrules: Uchiha_Cycliste: My liberal friends spent countless hours manically refreshing the "538" blog every three minutes or so throughout most of October seeking reassurance that President Obama would win.



well that's a f*cking lie.

I'm probably the most obsessive Liberal I know and I checked it no more than once a day.

No one was frantically hitting refresh on a webpage updated once a day. No one. Either joe has lying friends, no liberal friends and or he's just a liar. But it makes everything else he said suspect when he's willing to bend the truth so easily over something so stupid. Further, something who's sole intention was to insult.

I didn't call you a liar or what you posted a lie. Perhaps this person you know in no way represents the average or even obsessed Liberal. So even if true, it is just a cool story bro.

I misread your post. Please disregard.


okie dokie, just out of curiosity, what did you think I had said?
 
2012-11-21 12:15:08 PM

DemonEater: falcon176: So his opening statement is "the libs only believed Nate Silver was right cuz he had their guy in front, and if he didn't they would've been as retarded as us and had an unskewedpolls.com too"
journalism

I prefer to read it as "liberals turn to reality for comfort".


That'd be a good onion headline.
 
2012-11-21 12:19:55 PM

General Zang: cousin-merle: not5am: that pointed to mr. obama's doom

what happened to respecting the office if not the man?

Generally, you only refer to him as President Obama in first reference of article, which Joe did, then Mr. Obama for the rest. This is standard practice, not disrespect.

That is incorrect. This is not 2012, not 1950.

Standard modern journalistic practice is to use the title and full name upon first mention, and the last name alone for subsequent mentions. Also, "Mister" is no longer used as a title.

So, it's either President Barack Obama, or Obama. Just using President Obama might also be acceptable, but Mr. Obama is not an acceptable designation. 

Source: 2012 AP Style Guide

The New York Times

still uses the "Mr. ____ on subsequent references" style to this day. It's not an uncommon journalistic style. The AP guide isn't an infallible style pope for all journalists.
 
2012-11-21 12:24:41 PM

BKITU: General Zang: cousin-merle: not5am: that pointed to mr. obama's doom

what happened to respecting the office if not the man?

Generally, you only refer to him as President Obama in first reference of article, which Joe did, then Mr. Obama for the rest. This is standard practice, not disrespect.

That is incorrect. This is not 2012, not 1950.

Standard modern journalistic practice is to use the title and full name upon first mention, and the last name alone for subsequent mentions. Also, "Mister" is no longer used as a title.

So, it's either President Barack Obama, or Obama. Just using President Obama might also be acceptable, but Mr. Obama is not an acceptable designation. 

Source: 2012 AP Style Guide

The New York Times still uses the "Mr. ____ on subsequent references" style to this day. It's not an uncommon journalistic style. The AP guide isn't an infallible style pope for all journalists.


I...I want to be so fashionable that someday, somewhere, I am referred to as the 'Infallible Style Pope'
 
2012-11-21 12:28:47 PM

Wheyfaring Stranger: I don't see why Scarborough is apologizing. Nate Silver was wrong.

His last forecast had Obama with 313 electoral votes. Wrong! He had Romney with 225 electoral votes. Wrong!

He gave Romeny a 9.1% chance of winning. Since Romney's actual chance of winning is 0%, that's wrong, too!

Nate Silver. Wrong on the math. Wrong for America.


Nice.

Reminds me of one non-joking point: Silver had gone into the realm of predicting, rather than just stating odds. If he had just stated odds, Romney could have won and he would have still been correct. Statistics is stating how likely it is that something could happen. The chance of getting struck by lightning is incredibly small, but it still happens.
 
2012-11-21 12:29:03 PM

General Zang: Standard modern journalistic practice is to use the title and full name upon first mention, and the last name alone for subsequent mentions. Also, "Mister" is no longer used as a title.

So, it's either President Barack Obama, or Obama. Just using President Obama might also be acceptable, but Mr. Obama is not an acceptable designation.

Source: 2012 AP Style Guide


There are other sets of style guidelines. The New York Times notably refers to everyone in all sections other than Sports by Mr./Mrs./Miss/Ms. on second reference. For instance:

A few days after Hurricane Sandy shattered the shores of New Jersey, Gov. Chris Christie picked up the phone to take on a different kind of recovery work: taming the Republican Party fury over his effusive embrace of President Obama.
On Nov. 3, Mr. Christie called Rupert Murdoch, the influential News Corporation chief and would-be kingmaker, who had warned in a biting post on Twitter that the governor might be responsible for Mr. Obama's re-election.
 
2012-11-21 12:32:51 PM
Random aside: I think the anger at polling data is going to lead to an Operation Chaos 2.0 in the next cycle; Rush telling his listeners to lie to pollsters about their affiliation and voting intentions. Polling is only as accurate as the data received, and I think the next evolution of political bullshiat will be to muddy the waters so NO ONE can get accurate data. It would all come down to turn out on election day.
 
2012-11-21 12:33:22 PM
We'd be way better if we had less pundits pulling "expert analysis" out of their asses and more Nate Silvers using actual math and providing all the necessary methodology and context behind his predictions.
 
2012-11-21 12:39:58 PM

Marcus Aurelius: If you are blessed enough to be able to avoid political chatter on Twitter, you may not know that Silver became a sort of Maharishi Mahesh Yogi for liberals seeking peace and serenity

WTF is Joe smoking these days?


You sound too young to be told
 
2012-11-21 01:09:28 PM
Joe Scarborough doesn't understand how probability works. 75% chance for Obama still means Romney has a 25%.

Most people on FARK and other sources don't seem to understand the 313. That's the average of 25001 simulations. Mostly flipping Florida 303:332. The real tell-all was the BAR GRAPH which nobody mentions. It had like 20% for 332, and 18% for 303. And even had 15% for 347 (carrying NC).
 
2012-11-21 01:23:21 PM

quizzical: Random aside: I think the anger at polling data is going to lead to an Operation Chaos 2.0 in the next cycle; Rush telling his listeners to lie to pollsters about their affiliation and voting intentions. Polling is only as accurate as the data received, and I think the next evolution of political bullshiat will be to muddy the waters so NO ONE can get accurate data. It would all come down to turn out on election day.


Honestly... I wouldn't mind polling getting "corrupted" in this way, so that candidates actually have to say what they actually mean and feel without trying to move "polls".
 
2012-11-21 01:24:15 PM
Axelrod shouldn't have let him off so lightly on the mustache bet. A few months with some face fuzz would have made a pretty lasting reminder not to mock the stats geek.
 
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