Uchiha_Cycliste: My liberal friends spent countless hours manically refreshing the "538" blog every three minutes or so throughout most of October seeking reassurance that President Obama would win.

well that's a f*cking lie.

Meh, more of an exaggeration. I did go there every couple of days (I'm a Lib) to catch up on the latest state polls, the rest of the MSM (of which 538 is now a part of) was worthless.

Hm... unskewedfact.com is available...

When's Joe gonna apologize for killing the intern he was boning?

If objective statistical models say your guy is losing, the fault is not in the math. The Obama camp knew what reality was and allocated resources accordingly. Whereas the Romney camp believed its own spin and believed states like Pennsylvania were in play.

Oh look, more cargo cult bullshiat from the right. "Well, he was right BUT IT'S STILL ALL VOODOO AND UNSKEWED HERP COULD HAVE BEEN RIGHT TOO BECAUSE I DON'T KNOW HOW TO MATH". No, you murdering slimeball, it's not voodoo. You can go pick up a book about statistics and learn this shiat yourself. Go fark yourself with a rusty normal curve, you reprehensible toad.

hubiestubert: The problem being, is that Silver doesn't pad out the polls to give "his" candidate a boost.

Hell - I might be wrong, but I'm sure I've read somewhere that Silver is a (sane) conservative.

That was a an interesting way to apologize. I mean, not dead intern interesting, but interesting.

Fluorescent Testicle: hubiestubert: The problem being, is that Silver doesn't pad out the polls to give "his" candidate a boost.

Hell - I might be wrong, but I'm sure I've read somewhere that Silver is a (sane) conservative.

He's actually a libertarian, I think.

mrshowrules: Uchiha_Cycliste: My liberal friends spent countless hours manically refreshing the "538" blog every three minutes or so throughout most of October seeking reassurance that President Obama would win.



well that's a f*cking lie.

I'm probably the most obsessive Liberal I know and I checked it no more than once a day.

I know several people who were definitely checking it more than once daily. For my part, I followed less frequently than usual in October, as that line started to dip. The reason for this is that it was looking less favorable for Obama, and even if Silver had predicted Romney would win, I believed his reliance on state polls to be reliable regardless of the outcome I desired. Not because he was suddenly becoming a mouthpiece for the right or some silliness. This letter is far from an apology, because it still paints Silver as partisan instead of admitting he's a statistician.

The issue that the pundits seem to be incapable of understanding is that Silver can simultaneously have left-leaning views and preferences while still correctly gathering and representing the available data in an unbiased way.

He gets called an idealogue because he doesn't pretend to have no opinon or preference - but then despite his track record of objective analysis, the political right just can't help assuming that he's cooking the books. It's not just a matter of being suspicious because Silver has a horse in the race, but that there is such a lack of comprehension that people can have both opinions and integrity at the same time.

not5am: that pointed to mr. obama's doom

what happened to respecting the office if not the man?

Generally, you only refer to him as President Obama in first reference of article, which Joe did, then Mr. Obama for the rest. This is standard practice, not disrespect.

... I was too tough on him and there's a 84.398264% chance I will be less dismissive of his good work in the future the same douchebag I've always been.

Fluorescent Testicle: hubiestubert: The problem being, is that Silver doesn't pad out the polls to give "his" candidate a boost.

Hell - I might be wrong, but I'm sure I've read somewhere that Silver is a (sane) conservative.

I believe he's said that he leans libertarian. I thought he's said that the reason he even really started paying attention to politics was because of congress mucking around in the whole online poker thing.

not5am: that pointed to mr. obama's doom

what happened to respecting the office if not the man?

"Can't you see that man is a ni-?"

HeartBurnKid: He's actually a libertarian, I think.

Ah, I was close, heh. Thanks. :)

(Clarification: I know that Hubie's a sane conservative and I'm a centre-right moderate and that we both voted for Obama, but I meant that Silver didn't necessarily have a preferred candidate. If he did, he was pretty tight-lipped about it.)

Silver became a sort of Maharishi Mahesh Yogi for liberals seeking peace and serenity during the turbulent 2012 presidential campaign.

So his opening statement is "the libs only believed Nate Silver was right cuz he had their guy in front, and if he didn't they would've been as retarded as us and had an unskewedpolls.com too"
journalism

Uchiha_Cycliste: well that's a f*cking lie.

Yeah, a guy who's that big a douchenozzle doesn't have any friends.

I don't see why Scarborough is apologizing. Nate Silver was wrong.

His last forecast had Obama with 313 electoral votes. Wrong! He had Romney with 225 electoral votes. Wrong!

He gave Romeny a 9.1% chance of winning. Since Romney's actual chance of winning is 0%, that's wrong, too!

Nate Silver. Wrong on the math. Wrong for America.

When in the buttfarking Jesus is the GOP going to get it and stop marginalizing themselves?

Let's hope, never.

Joe, you chucklefark, please understand there is a difference between making a prediction from the subjective position of 'all those years in politics' is not the same as an outlining probabilities based on years of information.

BSABSVR: That was a an interesting way to apologize. I mean, not dead intern interesting, but interesting.

This is the funniest of the "Joe killed somebody" jokes.

falcon176: So his opening statement is "the libs only believed Nate Silver was right cuz he had their guy in front, and if he didn't they would've been as retarded as us and had an unskewedpolls.com too"
journalism

I prefer to read it as "liberals turn to reality for comfort".

"Oh, Sweet Jesus."

Did joe apologize for killing the intern he was having an illicit sexual relationship with? Why would he apologize to Nate Silver for that? Did Nate predict the murder?

I love the rare times when Maddow and Scarborough are together. He just seems desperate to say anything at all even slightly intelligent when he's around her,

cousin-merle: not5am: that pointed to mr. obama's doom

what happened to respecting the office if not the man?

Generally, you only refer to him as President Obama in first reference of article, which Joe did, then Mr. Obama for the rest. This is standard practice, not disrespect.

That is incorrect. This is not 2012, not 1950.

Standard modern journalistic practice is to use the title and full name upon first mention, and the last name alone for subsequent mentions. Also, "Mister" is no longer used as a title.

So, it's either President Barack Obama, or Obama. Just using President Obama might also be acceptable, but Mr. Obama is not an acceptable designation. 

Source: 2012 AP Style Guide

DemonEater: falcon176: So his opening statement is "the libs only believed Nate Silver was right cuz he had their guy in front, and if he didn't they would've been as retarded as us and had an unskewedpolls.com too"
journalism

I prefer to read it as "liberals turn to reality for comfort".

That'd be a good onion headline.

BKITU: General Zang: cousin-merle: not5am: that pointed to mr. obama's doom

what happened to respecting the office if not the man?

Generally, you only refer to him as President Obama in first reference of article, which Joe did, then Mr. Obama for the rest. This is standard practice, not disrespect.

That is incorrect. This is not 2012, not 1950.

Standard modern journalistic practice is to use the title and full name upon first mention, and the last name alone for subsequent mentions. Also, "Mister" is no longer used as a title.

So, it's either President Barack Obama, or Obama. Just using President Obama might also be acceptable, but Mr. Obama is not an acceptable designation. 

Source: 2012 AP Style Guide

The New York Times still uses the "Mr. ____ on subsequent references" style to this day. It's not an uncommon journalistic style. The AP guide isn't an infallible style pope for all journalists.

I...I want to be so fashionable that someday, somewhere, I am referred to as the 'Infallible Style Pope'

Random aside: I think the anger at polling data is going to lead to an Operation Chaos 2.0 in the next cycle; Rush telling his listeners to lie to pollsters about their affiliation and voting intentions. Polling is only as accurate as the data received, and I think the next evolution of political bullshiat will be to muddy the waters so NO ONE can get accurate data. It would all come down to turn out on election day.

We'd be way better if we had less pundits pulling "expert analysis" out of their asses and more Nate Silvers using actual math and providing all the necessary methodology and context behind his predictions.

Marcus Aurelius: If you are blessed enough to be able to avoid political chatter on Twitter, you may not know that Silver became a sort of Maharishi Mahesh Yogi for liberals seeking peace and serenity

WTF is Joe smoking these days?

You sound too young to be told

Joe Scarborough doesn't understand how probability works. 75% chance for Obama still means Romney has a 25%.

Most people on FARK and other sources don't seem to understand the 313. That's the average of 25001 simulations. Mostly flipping Florida 303:332. The real tell-all was the BAR GRAPH which nobody mentions. It had like 20% for 332, and 18% for 303. And even had 15% for 347 (carrying NC).