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(Mother Nature Network)   If global warming is so real, then why did we see fewer tornadoes in America this year? "We are approaching a theoretical minimum in the annual tornado count for the modern era"   (mnn.com) divider line 108
    More: Interesting, global warming, Atmospheric Administration, tornadoes, National Oceanographic  
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4252 clicks; posted to Main » on 21 Nov 2012 at 10:51 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-21 11:37:01 AM
Its not Global Warming, its "Climate Change". Since the climate changes all the time, one can never be wrong when one exclaims "Climate Change is real!" while implying that someone else doesn't believe the obvious.

"Extreme weather" is another one.

Using weather to advance one's ideological agenda and demand money is brilliant. Hats off.
 
2012-11-21 11:38:19 AM

The Green Intern: Uh... weren't the largest recorded tornado outbreaks in history just last year?

April 14-16: 162
April 19-24: 100
April 25-28: 358
May 21-26: 242

Anything short of the apocalypse is gonna look downright weak compared to last year.


Keep in mind that prior to high-quality doppler radar, counts required actual visual confirmations of touchdown -- not just radar signatures. Counts over the last decade are inflated relative to historical data due to better diagnostic capability.
 
2012-11-21 11:41:24 AM

phaseolus: Does climate science in its current state-of-the-art make any predictions about global warming's effects on the expected number of tornadoes in the United States?


There hasn't been much work on this. One recent paper is Lee (2012), which tries to statistically relate the large scale climate to historical tornado activity. It doesn't use any physical simulation of the climate's effect on tornadoes. It finds "F2 and stronger US tornado days will increase anywhere from 3.8 to 12.7% by the 2090s". But personally, I wouldn't put a whole lot of credence into this or any other prediction. There's such a large separation of scales and little independent confirmation from physical modeling.
 
2012-11-21 11:41:58 AM
I couldn't care less about the explanations and theories. I just like the idea that there will (hopefully) be fewer tornados. I live in northern Arkansas. My wife & I spent too many quality hours in our shelter last year...
 
2012-11-21 11:44:31 AM
Anyone notice? Al Gore hardly shows his face anymore, I guess he is tired of the Global Warming Hoax.

Or, more likely, he has $300 million to spend and doesn't need the money anymore.
 
2012-11-21 11:45:17 AM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: So Global Warming is the new Swiss Army Knife. It is whatever you need it to be!


What are you talking about? The article wasn't even about global warming.
 
2012-11-21 11:45:49 AM

Flakeloaf: Weather is not climate.


This.

And also, people are idiots.

This is the thing... Weather, as it is, is composed of so many variables that it's almost impossible to predict with any sort of complete accuracy. These variables include (just to name a few), the Moon's position, the jet stream, the Earth's position in relation to the sun, and all the other planets, and ocean currents. And that doesn't even take into account the things moving around in the solar system that we don't even know about, let alone control.

The climate of this planet is changing. And if you deny that, your are a complete moron. The climate has been in flux for 4.5 billion years or so. Whether it's warming or cooling may be in dispute. But I assure you, it's changing. And here's the other point of this post. Humans with their reckless use of CFCs and fossil fuels, among a lot else, is having a dramatic impact on a system that is already in flux.

I'm not gonna go all Al Gore on everyone. But if you don't think human activity is rapidly altering the climate of the planet, you are in denial.
 
2012-11-21 11:46:15 AM
what the hell is a "US Inflation adjusted* Annual tornado trend and percentile trend"? exactly HOW is it adjusted for inflation??

www.mnn.com

so the government is inflating the tornado numbers now, huh?

/y'all blame Bush or Obie for everything - I blame Cheney...
 
2012-11-21 11:47:12 AM
Look, I believe in climate change as much as the next person. I believe humans are responsible (at the very least, a good part responsible).

However, when everything gets blamed on climate change, it is easy to see why people decide it is not real. Like when there are years with fewer snow storms, that gets blamed on climate change. When there are years with more snow storms, that gets blamed on climate change. When it is around the average? You guessed it, climate change.

Basically, stop blaming everything on climate change and people will start to not be AGW deniers.
 
2012-11-21 11:48:58 AM

LargeCanine: Its not Global Warming, its "Climate Change". Since the climate changes all the time, one can never be wrong when one exclaims "Climate Change is real!" while implying that someone else doesn't believe the obvious.

"Extreme weather" is another one.

Using weather to advance one's ideological agenda and demand money is brilliant. Hats off.


Actually, they changed it again to "Global Weirdening". Try to keep up.
 
2012-11-21 12:01:39 PM

Ambitwistor: The Stealth Hippopotamus: So Global Warming is the new Swiss Army Knife. It is whatever you need it to be!

What are you talking about? The article wasn't even about global warming.


1. Welcome to fark.
2. Don't be a tornado coont.

/when I was growing up, the weather was far more predictable than it is now.
/...said no weatherman in the history of meteorology.
 
2012-11-21 12:03:00 PM

LargeCanine: Its not Global Warming, its "Climate Change". Since the climate changes all the time, one can never be wrong when one exclaims "Climate Change is real!" while implying that someone else doesn't believe the obvious.

"Extreme weather" is another one.

Using weather to advance one's ideological agenda and demand money is brilliant. Hats off.


It is global warming. The problem is that people don't understand that when the planet warms, it creates more extreme weather at both ends of curve. Thus, every time we have a blizzard, the derps start screaming about how global warming is a farce. Thus, marketing dictated a rebranding to "climate change" in the hopes that we could get the morons to understand what was actually happening.

And again, weather is a function of climate. If climate changes, weather patterns are predicted to change. Documenting the weather changes thus provides a means for testing hypotheses derived from climate change models. Science.
 
2012-11-21 12:10:47 PM

snowybunting: freewill: Somacandra: Paris1127: Well... that was an unfortunate typo...

Great typo, or GREATEST typo?

"Tornado Coont" is now the name of my next band.

Whereas Hurricane Twunt remains unused. Hmmm...


...as does "Cyclone Flaps".


ilovethisthread.jpg
 
2012-11-21 12:14:56 PM

BostonEMT: what the hell is a "US Inflation adjusted* Annual tornado trend and percentile trend"? exactly HOW is it adjusted for inflation??


There's a footnote in the very image you linked that explains the adjustment. It's their attempt to correct for non-weather related trends in tornado reporting, due to e.g. "population increase, increased tornado awareness, and more robust and advanced reporting networks".  Basically, they use a more recent year (2007) as a baseline.
 
2012-11-21 12:16:19 PM

BostonEMT: what the hell is a "US Inflation adjusted* Annual tornado trend and percentile trend"? exactly HOW is it adjusted for inflation??

[www.mnn.com image 530x300]

so the government is inflating the tornado numbers now, huh?

/y'all blame Bush or Obie for everything - I blame Cheney...


Hmm. If only there were an asterisk by that statement, which leads to and explanation, on the bottom of the graph...


\farking reading comprehension, how does it work?
 
2012-11-21 12:31:17 PM

Singleballtheory: I saw Tornado Coont back in '84 during their "Breaking the Wind" tour. Shame they broke up.


You're lucky. Not many people got to see them play live. It was a whirlwind tour.
 
2012-11-21 12:35:11 PM

indarwinsshadow: Calling all Fark Global Warming Experts...Attention all Fark Global Warming Experts. You are needed immediately in thread #7445143.

Remember to bring your insults, slander and graphs with you...


Amazing. It worked!
 
2012-11-21 12:35:36 PM

indarwinsshadow: hdhale: indarwinsshadow: Calling all Fark Global Warming Experts...Attention all Fark Global Warming Experts. You are needed immediately in thread #7445143.

Remember to bring your insults, slander and graphs with you...

That is all.

Climate Change is very real. We see the results of it over millions of years of Earth's history.

As for the tornadoes...it's entirely plausible we're going with a warning period, that Man has little impact on it, and the result will be fewer violent t-storms and drier conditions in the Midwest. One unfortunate side effect long term may be long, dry, hot summers similar to western Texas and places like Indiana become much less suitable for corn production.

I believe that you believe it. Congratulations. Personally, I don't care what anyone believes. Global warming threads on fark are like gasoline and matches to pyromaniacs.

.
..
And I packed away my deck chair for the season. Damn. Now I'll have to sit on the ground and watch...Hey out of curiousity. What's Black Friday? I see the ad's on television but I couldn't explain it to my son. - Canada


Black Friday is the traditional day that retailers in the US reach the break even point in terms of sales. From that day forward, it's all profit from here.

Naturally retailers count on selling Christmas goods earlier rather than later. So they offer some items at below cost in hopes you'll buy other goods at full retail or near full retail (like wrapping paper...). What's offered at below cost varies from store to store and usually quantities are very limited. This causes consumers to get up at insane hours (or stay up really late) in order to be in line to get the goods.

Hope that helps.
 
2012-11-21 12:44:25 PM
So... last years grand mal tornado seizure across Tennessee and a few other places somehow leads into subby's statement?
 
2012-11-21 12:45:29 PM

Lochsteppe: LoneWolf343: Paris1127: Are you trying to see a record tornado coont next year? Then don't say anything about the lack of tornadoes this year, you'll jinx it

My CSB. Last year, my family and I were talking one night about how our town has been missing out on tornadoes for years, and how we were overdue. The next day, we had 9 tornadoes in our county, including the first one I had seen in my life.

Like, a tornado from your childhood came back to visit?


A time traveling tornado? How coontish of it...

seniorgato: Paris1127: Are you trying to see a record tornado coont next year? Then don't say anything about the lack of tornadoes this year, you'll jinx it

Called it. Next year, record tornado's.


Record tornado's what?

snowybunting: freewill: Somacandra: Paris1127: Well... that was an unfortunate typo...

Great typo, or GREATEST typo?

"Tornado Coont" is now the name of my next band.

Whereas Hurricane Twunt remains unused. Hmmm...


...as does "Cyclone Flaps".


How about "Super Typhoon Vag"?

/typhoon names are quite random
//this year they've had typhoons named for an airport, the ruins of a church, and a fish.
 
2012-11-21 12:47:39 PM

Lochsteppe: LoneWolf343: Paris1127: Are you trying to see a record tornado coont next year? Then don't say anything about the lack of tornadoes this year, you'll jinx it

My CSB. Last year, my family and I were talking one night about how our town has been missing out on tornadoes for years, and how we were overdue. The next day, we had 9 tornadoes in our county, including the first one I had seen in my life.

Like, a tornado from your childhood came back to visit?


Oh, yes. It was very pleasant visit, but now see it had fallen on hard times. Very sad.
 
2012-11-21 12:59:18 PM
"If something that allegedly causes unusual weather patterns is real, how come we're seeing an unusal weather pattern"?

Good argument.
 
2012-11-21 01:00:01 PM
Would be so epic if the world started going into an ice age right about now

Cons- gotta do something about this climate change!

Libs- what climate change? This is the natural cycle of earth

Come on earth. I'll open my fridge to give u a kick start
 
2012-11-21 01:03:56 PM

Ambitwistor: phaseolus: Does climate science in its current state-of-the-art make any predictions about global warming's effects on the expected number of tornadoes in the United States?

There hasn't been much work on this. One recent paper is Lee (2012), which tries to statistically relate the large scale climate to historical tornado activity. It doesn't use any physical simulation of the climate's effect on tornadoes. It finds "F2 and stronger US tornado days will increase anywhere from 3.8 to 12.7% by the 2090s". But personally, I wouldn't put a whole lot of credence into this or any other prediction. There's such a large separation of scales and little independent confirmation from physical modeling.



Thanks.
 
2012-11-21 01:06:18 PM

GrizzlyPouch: Would be so epic if the world started going into an ice age right about now

Cons- gotta do something about this climate change!

Libs- what climate change? This is the natural cycle of earth

Come on earth. I'll open my fridge to give u a kick start


If we did start into an Ice Age now, every climatologist on Earth would have criminal charges filed against them in Italy.
 
2012-11-21 01:17:33 PM

ciberido: Singleballtheory: I saw Tornado Coont back in '84 during their "Breaking the Wind" tour. Shame they broke up.

You're lucky. Not many people got to see them play live. It was a whirlwind tour.


Didn't Spinal Tap sue them over the tour name?
 
2012-11-21 01:28:49 PM

Paris1127: Paris1127: Are you trying to see a record tornado coont next year? Then don't say anything about the lack of tornadoes this year, you'll jinx it

Well... that was an unfortunate typo...


not amused
www.moviehole.net

/also - how am i the weeners on this ?
 
2012-11-21 02:03:37 PM

Singleballtheory: I saw Tornado Coont back in '84 during their "Breaking the Wind" tour. Shame they broke up.


I was so disappointed. Gail Breezy was the best lead signer. Evar.
 
2012-11-21 02:04:15 PM

Overfiend: Singleballtheory: I saw Tornado Coont back in '84 during their "Breaking the Wind" tour. Shame they broke up.

I was so disappointed. Gail Breezy was the best lead signer. Evar.


singer.

/FTFM
 
2012-11-21 02:10:23 PM
Less tornadoes, more derechoes

It balances
 
2012-11-21 02:10:44 PM

Generation_D: The fact that "tornado alley" is almost all red states seems like God's telling you something.


Yeah, it turns out Wheaton's Law is a distilled verson Jesus's gospel.
 
2012-11-21 02:10:50 PM

ManRay: Somacandra: Paris1127: Well... that was an unfortunate typo...

Great typo, or GREATEST typo?

"Tornado Coont" is now the name of my next band.


That was my college girlfriend's nickname.


Fabulosity this is
 
2012-11-21 02:13:46 PM

OlDood: I couldn't care less about the explanations and theories. I just like the idea that there will (hopefully) be fewer tornados. I live in northern Arkansas. My wife & I spent too many quality hours in our shelter last year...


I'm sure they're salivating on Watts Up With That? over this. Yeah...all those times I had to take shelter last year were fake, because there were less tornadoes last year. It was fake, just like the drought that left farmers taking in 10% of their normal yield.

/seriously, there are WUWT readers who think the drought was fake
//trust me, it wasn't
 
2012-11-21 02:37:13 PM

LoneWolf343: Oh, yes. It was very pleasant visit, but now see it had fallen on hard times. Very sad.


The tornadoes of yesteryear can't compete with the tornado coonts being spawned by climate change. I hate to say it, but maybe it's time for the old tornadoes to move aside. Maybe they could try tornadoing in Washington or Wisconsin or somewhere. People there would be more easily impressed.
 
2012-11-21 02:50:04 PM

hdhale: indarwinsshadow: hdhale: indarwinsshadow: Calling all Fark Global Warming Experts...Attention all Fark Global Warming Experts. You are needed immediately in thread #7445143.

Remember to bring your insults, slander and graphs with you...

That is all.

Climate Change is very real. We see the results of it over millions of years of Earth's history.

As for the tornadoes...it's entirely plausible we're going with a warning period, that Man has little impact on it, and the result will be fewer violent t-storms and drier conditions in the Midwest. One unfortunate side effect long term may be long, dry, hot summers similar to western Texas and places like Indiana become much less suitable for corn production.

I believe that you believe it. Congratulations. Personally, I don't care what anyone believes. Global warming threads on fark are like gasoline and matches to pyromaniacs.

.
..
And I packed away my deck chair for the season. Damn. Now I'll have to sit on the ground and watch...Hey out of curiousity. What's Black Friday? I see the ad's on television but I couldn't explain it to my son. - Canada

Black Friday is the traditional day that retailers in the US reach the break even point in terms of sales. From that day forward, it's all profit from here.

Naturally retailers count on selling Christmas goods earlier rather than later. So they offer some items at below cost in hopes you'll buy other goods at full retail or near full retail (like wrapping paper...). What's offered at below cost varies from store to store and usually quantities are very limited. This causes consumers to get up at insane hours (or stay up really late) in order to be in line to get the goods.

Hope that helps.


It did and it was interesting. Thanks.
 
2012-11-21 03:42:12 PM

give me doughnuts: ciberido: Singleballtheory: I saw Tornado Coont back in '84 during their "Breaking the Wind" tour. Shame they broke up.

You're lucky. Not many people got to see them play live. It was a whirlwind tour.

Didn't Spinal Tap sue them over the tour name?


No, it happened at the same time, but the lawsuit was really about Tornado Coont 's new album, Smell the Dove.
 
2012-11-21 03:55:59 PM
Billings is now in the fringe of "Tornado Alley' supposedly.

Further proof of the one true nugget o' wisdom my brain has crapped out:

Montana is God's backyard... sadly, Satan controls the damn thermostat.

"Would you like 70? You'd like 70 for a few days, huh? TOUGH. You get snow followed by heat wave followed by ARCTIC BLAST FROM CANADA! MWAHAHAHA!"
 
2012-11-21 04:09:54 PM

Jedekai: Montana is God's backyard... sadly, Satan controls the damn thermostat.


www.defectivegeeks.com
Agrees. 
lochgarry.files.wordpress.com
But ... why does God need a thermostat?
 
2012-11-21 05:18:45 PM
Skimmed the thread, so my apologies if these have been covered:

1) The reason for the lack of tornadoes this year was the massive drought and extreme heat in the plains and midwest. So, we can say, great, there were less tornadoes, but the reason why there were less of them is even worse.

2) The NWS has to "inflate" the prior year tornado counts because we didn't have good radar coverage, spotter networks, and crazy storm chasers 50 (or even 20) years ago.

3) Climate models can't explicitly simulate tornadoes. The best they can do is tell you if the ingredients for tornadoes will be more likely in the future. By most accounts CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) will increase, which is contributor, but less is known about shear (change of wind direction and speed with height above the ground). You really need both for outbreaks that are going to move the needle.
 
2012-11-21 06:03:20 PM

Generation_D: The fact that "tornado alley" is almost all red states seems like God's telling you something.


After a megastorm devastates area of prominent blue states you have to derp up the thread with this shiat?

Not to mention the 2 ticking timebombs on the west coast (Cascadia and San Andreas) will make the damage from any tornado look like a fallen-over chair...

Do NOT tempt karma. She's a megabiatch.

/God is apolitical
 
2012-11-21 06:27:19 PM

peterthx: Generation_D: The fact that "tornado alley" is almost all red states seems like God's telling you something.

After a megastorm devastates area of prominent blue states you have to derp up the thread with this shiat?

Not to mention the 2 ticking timebombs on the west coast (Cascadia and San Andreas) will make the damage from any tornado look like a fallen-over chair...

Do NOT tempt karma. She's a megabiatch.

/God is apolitical


That was the joke.
 
2012-11-21 06:51:20 PM

Fallout Zone: Skimmed the thread, so my apologies if these have been covered:

1) The reason for the lack of tornadoes this year was the massive drought and extreme heat in the plains and midwest. So, we can say, great, there were less tornadoes, but the reason why there were less of them is even worse.

2) The NWS has to "inflate" the prior year tornado counts because we didn't have good radar coverage, spotter networks, and crazy storm chasers 50 (or even 20) years ago.

3) Climate models can't explicitly simulate tornadoes. The best they can do is tell you if the ingredients for tornadoes will be more likely in the future. By most accounts CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) will increase, which is contributor, but less is known about shear (change of wind direction and speed with height above the ground). You really need both for outbreaks that are going to move the needle.


climate models are worthless. They are set up to over react to an increase in CO2. They are, as you pointed out, terribly unrealistic.
 
2012-11-21 08:11:24 PM

snowybunting: freewill: Somacandra: Paris1127: Well... that was an unfortunate typo...

Great typo, or GREATEST typo?

"Tornado Coont" is now the name of my next band.

Whereas Hurricane Twunt remains unused. Hmmm...


...as does "Cyclone Flaps".


And Typhoon Twitty.
 
2012-11-21 09:06:14 PM

david_gaithersburg: If the weather today is different then it was yesterday then the climate has changed. More funding please!


Brilliantly stated.

Incredibly, 100% of climate-change grant recipients want you to be terrified of climate change.

You can't argue with that kind of consensus. You science-hating idiots.
 
2012-11-21 09:39:47 PM

chuckufarlie: Fallout Zone: Skimmed the thread, so my apologies if these have been covered:

1) The reason for the lack of tornadoes this year was the massive drought and extreme heat in the plains and midwest. So, we can say, great, there were less tornadoes, but the reason why there were less of them is even worse.

2) The NWS has to "inflate" the prior year tornado counts because we didn't have good radar coverage, spotter networks, and crazy storm chasers 50 (or even 20) years ago.

3) Climate models can't explicitly simulate tornadoes. The best they can do is tell you if the ingredients for tornadoes will be more likely in the future. By most accounts CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) will increase, which is contributor, but less is known about shear (change of wind direction and speed with height above the ground). You really need both for outbreaks that are going to move the needle.

climate models are worthless. They are set up to over react to an increase in CO2. They are, as you pointed out, terribly unrealistic.


1.) He said no such thing, and 2.) you're talking out of your ass.
 
2012-11-21 09:40:26 PM

chuckufarlie: climate models are worthless. They are set up to over react to an increase in CO2. They are, as you pointed out, terribly unrealistic.


Sure, as long as you ignore the fact that everything we're seeing right now was predicted by the models.
 
2012-11-21 09:55:17 PM

Mentat: chuckufarlie: climate models are worthless. They are set up to over react to an increase in CO2. They are, as you pointed out, terribly unrealistic.

Sure, as long as you ignore the fact that everything we're seeing right now was predicted by the models.


There are models available that predict every type of result. Then, when something happens, people go and hunt down the models that "predicted" what happened when it's to their advantage to "prove" that they're right.
 
2012-11-21 10:14:50 PM

Rev. Skarekroe: Yeah! And if evolution is real, why are there still monkeys?


4.bp.blogspot.com
 
2012-11-21 10:38:57 PM
Yeah, we had a continental-wide heat-wave and drought this summer instead. So obviously this season disproves global warming.
 
2012-11-21 11:01:11 PM

ciberido: give me doughnuts: ciberido: Singleballtheory: I saw Tornado Coont back in '84 during their "Breaking the Wind" tour. Shame they broke up.

You're lucky. Not many people got to see them play live. It was a whirlwind tour.

Didn't Spinal Tap sue them over the tour name?

No, it happened at the same time, but the lawsuit was really about Tornado Coont 's new album, Smell the Dove.


The real problem there though was that they tried to use a much blacker cover than Spinal Tap's.
 
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