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(The New York Times)   Remember how liberals loved Nate Silver's accurate predictions about the 2012 election? Well, you might not want to read what he has to say about 2014   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 197
    More: Interesting, elections in 2012, predictions, liberals  
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9851 clicks; posted to Politics » on 17 Nov 2012 at 1:43 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-17 12:11:40 PM
i1079.photobucket.com
 
2012-11-17 12:12:28 PM
You see Subby, some of us understand that Mr Silver's predictions are based on math not hopes and derp, and sometimes math tells you things you don't like. Learning to deal with that is part of growing up.
 
2012-11-17 12:15:35 PM
Unlike conservatards, Liberals (Coservative definition for liberal is someone who isn't conservative) neither love nor hate facts. They just merely exists as something to manage or plan around or deal with.
 
2012-11-17 12:16:16 PM

Ennuipoet: You see Subby, some of us understand that Mr Silver's predictions are based on math not hopes and derp, and sometimes math tells you things you don't like. Learning to deal with that is part of growing up.



Because People in power are Stupid: Unlike conservatards, Liberals (Coservative definition for liberal is someone who isn't conservative) neither love nor hate facts. They just merely exists as something to manage or plan around or deal with.



Thank you.
 
2012-11-17 12:22:48 PM

Because People in power are Stupid: Unlike conservatards, Liberals (Coservative definition for liberal is someone who isn't conservative) neither love nor hate facts. They just merely exists as something to manage or plan around or deal with.


Without Fox News to infrom us, we're forced to think for ourselves. The horror.
 
2012-11-17 12:27:48 PM
Yes, because what liberals really want is to have sunshine blown up our asses just to have our hopes crushed by cruel, hard reality on election day.

Why do conservatives always think liberals are just as petulant and childish as they Themselves are?
 
2012-11-17 12:39:44 PM

Ambivalence: Yes, because what liberals really want is to have sunshine blown up our asses just to have our hopes crushed by cruel, hard reality on election day.

Why do conservatives always think liberals are just as petulant and childish as they Themselves are?


It's called projection. War on women? No...YOU'RE waging a war on women!
 
2012-11-17 12:41:50 PM
Dear Subby:

i212.photobucket.com
 
2012-11-17 12:45:32 PM

SnarfVader: Dear Subby:

[i212.photobucket.com image 300x200]


Nice. I have a feeling we'll be seeing that picture a lot.
 
jbc [TotalFark]
2012-11-17 12:50:50 PM
Subby, if you had heard of Nate Silver before election day, you might not be so obnoxiously butthurt today.
 
2012-11-17 01:07:50 PM
Subby demonstrates why his ilk are farking retards.
 
2012-11-17 01:11:27 PM

Because People in power are Stupid: Unlike conservatards, Liberals (Coservative definition for liberal is someone who isn't conservative) neither love nor hate facts. They just merely exists as something to manage or plan around or deal with.


This.
 
2012-11-17 01:13:46 PM
In 2010, I knew the D's were going to get raped because of Silver. Subby has outed itself to be a rabid idiotic partisan.
 
2012-11-17 01:15:44 PM
I'd rather observe reality and accept it then delude myself.
 
2012-11-17 01:20:47 PM
What everyone else said.

Also, the election is 2 years away, a lot can happen in that time frame, and I'd rather not speculate or count on anything this far out, especially with the amount of PR catastrophes that happened this election cycle.
 
2012-11-17 01:28:26 PM

SnarfVader: Dear Subby:

[i212.photobucket.com image 300x200]


Love it.
 
2012-11-17 01:31:16 PM
I wonder what Nate said early on about the prospect of the Dems gaining Senate seats in 2012....

That said, liberals look to more objective analyses to construct their perspective of reality than whatever fantasyland Dick Morris, Karl Rove, Rush Limbaugh, Ted Nugent, and Ann Coulter tell them to believe.
 
2012-11-17 01:32:10 PM

SnarfVader: Dear Subby:

[i212.photobucket.com image 300x200]


I first saw it this morning on a friend's FB feed. Then I captioned it so I could trot it out for my Teabagger FB friends who don't understand sublety.

25.media.tumblr.com
 
2012-11-17 01:45:54 PM

bronyaur1: I wonder what Nate said early on about the prospect of the Dems gaining Senate seats in 2012....

That said, liberals look to more objective analyses to construct their perspective of reality than whatever fantasyland Dick Morris, Karl Rove, Rush Limbaugh, Ted Nugent, and Ann Coulter tell them to believe.


It was at 50 for a while before the GOP candidates started imploding.
 
2012-11-17 01:46:04 PM

bronyaur1: I wonder what Nate said early on about the prospect of the Dems gaining Senate seats in 2012....


He had been saying since at least the summer that the Dems would hold the Senate but that they'd lose a couple of seats.
 
2012-11-17 01:46:53 PM
The data says what the data says, hoping and whining will not change it. Only changing the actual reality that the data is based on will produce a real result.
 
2012-11-17 01:47:45 PM
Oh no! Nate Silver is using math to predict election outcomes instead of writing Fox News style fanfic. As a liberal,this enrages me.
 
2012-11-17 01:47:49 PM
I do not want to read about what anybody thinks of 2014. Let's worry about that late in 2014.
 
2012-11-17 01:50:03 PM
Silver's numbers can't account this early for Rape or Macaca blunders, and if the last few elections have been any indications, some of those sure thing Republicans will talk their way right out of a seat
 
2012-11-17 01:52:14 PM
Still bitter, Butthurticans?
 
2012-11-17 01:53:23 PM
Of course liberals love Nate Silver. Nate Silver is effeminate, and all liberals are gay and they want to braid Nate's hair while taking a lavender bath.
 
2012-11-17 01:54:03 PM
Subby really stuck it to those liberals.
 
2012-11-17 01:55:25 PM
I would have never expected the Democrats to take the House in 2014. I am hopeful that moderate Republicans will replace extremists though.

As far as the submitter goes, I think that the headlines only reflects the views held by the subby about half the time, and the other times it's trolled up for greenability.
 
2012-11-17 01:57:07 PM
Subby does not quite get why Nate Silver gets the respect he does. We're not looking to get told we're going to win. We're looking to get told the truth.
 
2012-11-17 01:58:22 PM
Liberals may not like Silver's prediction but we don't shoot messengers for relaying inconvenient truths. The fact is that, historically, cities were structurally underrepresented in the House in favor of rural areas. Now that cities have become strongly Democratic, that's an inherent tilt in favor of Republicans holding the House. Besides that, GOP legislatures have exactly no compunction in approving gerrymandered maps that give them even greater representation. Blue states have yet to take such blatantly partisan steps and it really hurts Dem numbers in the House.

So that's two factors working against liberals - implicit electoral undervaluing of cities and explicit partisan gerrymandering.
 
2012-11-17 02:00:09 PM

Ennuipoet: You see Subby, some of us understand that Mr Silver's predictions are based on math not hopes and derp, and sometimes math tells you things you don't like. Learning to deal with that is part of growing up.


I LOVE his predictions.
What's MUCH MUCH MUCH more interesting is that the dems need 19 GOPS to switch parties or go independent and caucus with the dems.
GIve them power sharing, give let them keep the current committee assignments.
And BOOM, the tea party is toothless.

Boner should pick the 20 or so most moderate, rational members and convince then that this is a win-win scenario for them. They can stop acting like retards. They start doing their jobs.
They will get TONS of press coverage as the guys who WORKED together.


so it will never happen
 
2012-11-17 02:01:38 PM
His arguments sound an awful lot like the same arguments that predicted Obama would lose in 2012. What Mr Silver isn't taking into account is that the Republicans seem uninterested in joining the fact-based world. If in the next 2 years the Republicans can marginalize their Tea Party and religious-right base, if they can reverse themselves away from the Ryan plan, if they can abandon their anti-abortion agenda, if they can shun the filibuster and instead productively govern, then, maybe, they'll retain control of the house. But Mr Silver doesn't take into account that they won't do that, and their obstructionism, extremism and fanaticism against Obama's centrist, pragmatic and popular agenda is going to be less and less relevant to most Americans, and Republicans will appeal to a smaller and smaller wedge of angry, white, detached old men.
 
2012-11-17 02:03:04 PM
Remember how Subby loved it when his candidates and media lied straight to his face so he could go to the election polls with a Romneyboner? Good times.
 
2012-11-17 02:03:26 PM
Well, I better get started handing out these green cards, food stamps and birth control pills.
 
2012-11-17 02:06:16 PM
I predict that Nate Silver will alter his predictions as more data surfaces.
 
2012-11-17 02:06:33 PM
Done in two and three.
 
Juc
2012-11-17 02:06:41 PM
I think it might be a little too soon to care about polls for 2014.
 
2012-11-17 02:06:54 PM
Nate Silver's predictions are much more accurate on election day than two years out. But yeah, with gerrymandering it doesn't look good.
 
2012-11-17 02:08:26 PM

DamnYankees: Ennuipoet: You see Subby, some of us understand that Mr Silver's predictions are based on math not hopes and derp, and sometimes math tells you things you don't like. Learning to deal with that is part of growing up.


Because People in power are Stupid: Unlike conservatards, Liberals (Coservative definition for liberal is someone who isn't conservative) neither love nor hate facts. They just merely exists as something to manage or plan around or deal with.


Thank you.


This! Or, These!
 
2012-11-17 02:08:27 PM
Silver is wrong about this. I feel it in my gut.
 
2012-11-17 02:08:32 PM
I wonder what Nate said early on about the prospect of the Dems gaining Senate seats in 2012....

If you go to the graph section on his page and click the senate prediction tab, you can see the historical timeline of his senate predictions.
 
2012-11-17 02:08:37 PM

PC LOAD LETTER: In 2010, I knew the D's were going to get raped because of Silver. Subby has outed itself to be a rabid idiotic partisan.


That said, it wasn't as bad as it should have been, thanks to the Tea Party
 
2012-11-17 02:08:43 PM
Those of us in the reviled "reality-based community" have no trouble distinguishing between trusting the accuracy of a prediction, and liking what that prediction has to say.
 
2012-11-17 02:08:56 PM
I'm looking forward to the sequel, though.

UnskewedPolls 2: Unskewderer
 
2012-11-17 02:09:14 PM
I'd rather be informed than partisan. It's nice when the two line up, but not necessary. Plus there's plenty of time to change that.
 
2012-11-17 02:09:47 PM
Whenever conservitards speak or write about polls I start hearing 'When you wish upon a star' playing in my head. I propose that the conservative inability to separate statistics and facts from wishes and hopes be referred to as the Jiminy Cricket phenomenon.
 
2012-11-17 02:10:34 PM
Subby, it is statistically unlikely that I will win the lottery tonight, no matter how much I want to. Therefore, I have decided against spending all of my money, racking up credit card debt, and burning my house down in false anticipation of a windfall. See how that works?
 
2012-11-17 02:10:39 PM

SnarfVader: Dear Subby:

[i212.photobucket.com image 300x200]


Great. As much as I like this pic, this is going to get old quick
 
2012-11-17 02:11:58 PM
Well, Dems really shouldn't have gained any seats. Not even Nate Silver could've predicted Akin and Murdock would rape themselves.
 
2012-11-17 02:12:37 PM
I don't see any math in TFA, only charts of historical data and an argument that the future is going to be like the past.
 
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