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(The New York Times)   Nate Silver says Mike Trout should be the MVP based on numbers and math and stuff. Like this guy knows what he's talking about   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ) divider line
    More: Unlikely, MVP  
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626 clicks; posted to Sports » on 14 Nov 2012 at 11:35 AM (3 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-14 11:41:32 AM  
There's an argument that he should be. But he realistically has no chance.
 
2012-11-14 11:45:37 AM  
Just like the hundreds of Nate Silver threads in the politics tab the past couple of month, this topic has been done to death here as well.
Stop it.
 
2012-11-14 11:46:22 AM  
OH GOD SABERMETRICS!
 
2012-11-14 11:47:24 AM  
but but but triple crown
 
2012-11-14 12:02:08 PM  
www.troll.me

It's really simple, either you think that contributing the more to your team winning than anyone else contributing to their team winning deserves an MVP award or you think that "Triple Crown" + playoffs does. At least there are no standard ways to determine the winner.
 
2012-11-14 12:03:35 PM  
RBI is a stupid statistic that should go into the dustbin of history.
 
2012-11-14 12:16:01 PM  
That's enough, Nate Silver.
 
2012-11-14 12:17:29 PM  
Gay
 
2012-11-14 12:28:49 PM  
Dan Patrick says that the quants don't know anything because THEY'VE NEVER PLAYED THE GAME! And then of course he went with the nerd, picked-last, sitting in the basement with his computer route. My point is, even if I agreed with you that Miguel should get it, that doesn't mean that this isn't a stupid argument.

Maybe Dan Patrick just sucks.
 
2012-11-14 12:33:11 PM  

js34603: That's enough, Nate Silver.


Shut up Nate Silver, you cock.


/FTFY
//he's right though
 
2012-11-14 12:33:45 PM  

jackiepaper: RBI is a stupid statistic that should go into the dustbin of history.


Granted, RBIs are a stupid statistic for determining which of two players are the better hitter.

But, the MVP award is not for the league's best player, it's for the player who was the most valuable in the previous season. And, about the only thing RBIs measure is situational productivity. That (i.e., RBIs) might normalize over the course of a few seasons, but for an award that goes to the guy that played better in one year, it should have some influence.

Consider a hockey analogy. Take two players: Player A scores 56 goals with a shooting percentage of 17.7% and player B scores 40 with a shooting percentage of 11.7%. On average, hockey players score on about 10% of their shots. You might reasonably suggest that player A's shooting percentage is unsustainably high and because of that his scoring next season is due for regression. You could reasonably predict that player B will prove to be a better scorer in the coming seasons. But, you can't argue that player B had a better goal scoring season. Goals measure goal scoring. Player A had a better scoring season. Period.

It's the same with RBIs. Cabrera was a better scorer than Trout last year. Period.

/ That said, Trout was objectively better in almost every other way. If defence and baserunning count for anything, Trout should win.
// Player A is Johnathan Cheechoo, Player B is Alex Ovechkin. Both from the 2005-2006 season.
 
2012-11-14 12:45:09 PM  

TeamEd: It's the same with RBIs. Cabrera was a better scorer than Trout last year. Period.


Wouldn't runs scored indicate who was the better "scorer"? A better stat comparison for hockey would be secondary assists.

I don't think anyone would vote for a guy to be MVP based on having more secondary assists than anyone else.
 
2012-11-14 12:46:07 PM  

roc6783: [www.troll.me image 552x360]

It's really simple, either you think that contributing more to your team winning than anyone else contributed to their team winning deserves an MVP award or you think that "Triple Crown" + playoffs does. At least there are no standard ways to determine the winner.


Wow, that was some serious typo garbage. FTFM
 
2012-11-14 12:48:59 PM  

IAmRight: TeamEd: It's the same with RBIs. Cabrera was a better scorer more productive with his bat than Trout last year. Period.

Wouldn't runs scored indicate who was the better "scorer"? A better stat comparison for hockey would be secondary assists.

I don't think anyone would vote for a guy to be MVP based on having more secondary assists than anyone else.

 

Meh, I guess. FTFM.
 
2012-11-14 12:50:55 PM  
I'm just happy for some old school baseball writing from Silver.

Also, if you think Miggy is the MVP, you are living in the past.
 
2012-11-14 12:52:22 PM  

boxiebrown: I'm just happy for some old school baseball writing from Silver.

Also, if you think Miggy is the MVP, you are living in the past.


If you think the MVP award actually matters and needs this detailed analysis, you need to readdress your priorities in life.
 
2012-11-14 12:53:47 PM  

Yanks_RSJ: If you think the MVP award actually matters and needs this detailed analysis, you need to readdress your priorities in life.


Well, Silver is actually getting paid for this.
 
2012-11-14 12:54:41 PM  

Yanks_RSJ: boxiebrown: I'm just happy for some old school baseball writing from Silver.

Also, if you think Miggy is the MVP, you are living in the past.

If you think the MVP award actually matters and needs this detailed analysis, you need to readdress your priorities in life.


Hahaha, indeed.
 
2012-11-14 01:11:22 PM  

Yanks_RSJ: If you think the MVP award actually matters and needs this detailed analysis, you need to readdress your priorities in life.


I agree with this, but I'll add that I enjoy the fight mostly because have no dog in it. I think the MVP award is special, but I don't think either winning or not winning it is the basis for any conclusion whatsoever. Silver's article is a good one, but roc's comment probably sums it up the best. You're either going to vote for either statistically best season or Triple Crown plus playoffs.

Me, I understand completely both arguments. In addition, I think that voting for Miggy will set back the new generation of stats for a while. So, based on a desire for more in-depth analysis I would vote Trout, but the kid in me would say Miggy's a shoe-in.
 
2012-11-14 01:12:21 PM  

boxiebrown: I'm just happy for some old school baseball writing from Silver.

Also, if you think Miggy is the MVP, you are living in the past.


Oh yeah, carrying a team towards the pennant shouldn't count for anything.
 
2012-11-14 01:18:00 PM  

Yanks_RSJ: boxiebrown: I'm just happy for some old school baseball writing from Silver.

Also, if you think Miggy is the MVP, you are living in the past.

If you think the MVP award actually matters and needs this detailed analysis, you need to readdress your priorities in life.


What the hell else am I supposed to do while pretending to work? I can't look for other jobs, I can't be at home with my family, my options are limited to pedantic arguments on Fark and fapping in the bathroom, and there is only so much fapping you can do until the chaffing ruins it.

Why do you hate freedom?
 
2012-11-14 01:22:14 PM  

roc6783: What the hell else am I supposed to do while pretending to work? I can't look for other jobs, I can't be at home with my family, my options are limited to pedantic arguments on Fark and fapping in the bathroom, and there is only so much fapping you can do until the chaffing ruins it.

Why do you hate freedom?


I hear ya, but the first three hundred threads on this matter REALLY turned me off. I don't know if I would call it "butthurt", but there was some serious vitriol from some (not all) Tigers fans towards anyone in here that dared to make any pro-Trout argument. I'm talking beyond-the-scope-of-rational-disagreement flaming, and even past-the-point-of-normal-hyperbolic-internet-snark type stuff. It was more like misty-eyed-over-the-top-"defense of their guy"-type stuff.

Also, I like hyphens.
 
2012-11-14 01:26:12 PM  
Too young
 
2012-11-14 01:28:57 PM  

HaywoodJablonski: Too young


We're not talking about hermione grainger here.
 
2012-11-14 01:29:03 PM  
And now Torii Hunter will be hitting in front of Cabrera next season. That'll be a few more RBIs, even though they don't seem to matter.
 
2012-11-14 01:31:47 PM  

Killer Cars: I hear ya, but the first three hundred threads on this matter REALLY turned me off. I don't know if I would call it "butthurt", but there was some serious vitriol from some (not all) Tigers fans towards anyone in here that dared to make any pro-Trout argument. I'm talking beyond-the-scope-of-rational-disagreement flaming, and even past-the-point-of-normal-hyperbolic-internet-snark type stuff. It was more like misty-eyed-over-the-top-"defense of their guy"-type stuff.


Hey, if suggesting that anyone that doesn't think Miguel Cabrera had the greatest season in ~40 years is racist is wrong, I don't wanna be right.

Also rereading that sentence I just wrote makes my head hurt.
 
2012-11-14 01:32:03 PM  

Killer Cars: I hear ya, but the first three hundred threads on this matter REALLY turned me off. I don't know if I would call it "butthurt", but there was some serious vitriol from some (not all) Tigers fans towards anyone in here that dared to make any pro-Trout argument. I'm talking beyond-the-scope-of-rational-disagreement flaming, and even past-the-point-of-normal-hyperbolic-internet-snark type stuff. It was more like misty-eyed-over-the-top-"defense of their guy"-type stuff.


Yeah I learned a lot about Tigers fans during the postseason. Who knew that in order to properly acknowledge the winning team in a playoff series, you had to get down on your knees and lick their beanbags clean without saying anything bad about your own team's performance?
 
2012-11-14 01:33:51 PM  

ChrisDe: And now Torii Hunter will be hitting in front of Cabrera next season. That'll be a few more RBIs, even though they don't seem to matter.


no shiat. Kind of shocked.
 
2012-11-14 01:39:54 PM  

Yanks_RSJ: Yeah I learned a lot about Tigers fans during the postseason.


Heh, I only skimmed some of those threads but yeah, that stuff was precious.

"Oh look, Granderson swung at a pitch three feet off the plate in the dirt again"

"THAT'S BECAUSE PHIL COKE IS MASTERFUL AND HOW DARE YOU IMPLY ANYTHING OTHER THAN THAT"
 
2012-11-14 01:40:12 PM  

Killer Cars: roc6783: ***snip***

I hear ya, but the first three hundred threads on this matter REALLY turned me off. I don't know if I would call it "butthurt", but there was some serious vitriol from some (not all) Tigers fans towards anyone in here that dared to make any pro-Trout argument. I'm talking beyond-the-scope-of-rational-disagreement flaming, and even past-the-point-of-normal-hyperbolic-internet-snark type stuff. It was more like misty-eyed-over-the-top-"defense of their guy"-type stuff.

Also, I like hyphens.


Killer Cars: roc6783, did you submit the AL MVP Link?!

Judge: You don't have to answer that question!

Roc6783: I'll answer the question. You want answers?

Killer Cars: I think I'm entitled.

Roc6783: You want answers?!

Killer Cars: I want the truth!

Roc6783: You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has threads, and those threads have to be guarded by men with keyboards. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Lieutenant Weinberg? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom! You weep for Cabrera and you curse the Angels. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know: that Cabrera's lack of MVP, while tragic, probably saved statistics. And my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves statistics! You don't want the truth, because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that thread! You need me on that thread! We use words like "WPA", "UZR", "stolen bases". We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punchline! I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very information that I provide, and then questions the manner in which I provide it! I would rather you just said "Thank you," and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a keyboard, and post. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you are entitled to!

Killer Cars: Did you submit the AL MVP Link?

Roc6783: I did the job that--

Killer Cars: Did you submit the AL MVP Link?!

Roc6783: You're goddamn right I did!!


//Not subby
 
2012-11-14 01:50:21 PM  
To anyone making the case that Cabrera should be MVP over Trout, please go on Twitter and make your case to @KeithLaw.

Just email me before yo do, so I can watch you get eviscerated firsthand.
 
2012-11-14 01:50:46 PM  

roc6783: Killer Cars: roc6783:


And don't wear that perfume in threads, it wrecks my concentration.


BTW slow clap
 
2012-11-14 01:55:09 PM  

roc6783: Roc6783: You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has threads, and those threads have to be guarded by men with keyboards. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Lieutenant Weinberg? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom! You weep for Cabrera and you curse the Angels. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know: that Cabrera's lack of MVP, while tragic, probably saved statistics. And my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves statistics! You don't want the truth, because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that thread! You need me on that thread! We use words like "WPA", "UZR", "stolen bases". We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punchline! I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very information that I provide, and then questions the manner in which I provide it! I would rather you just said "Thank you," and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a keyboard, and post. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you are entitled to!


I guess I'll get back to work. Nothing left to see here. Well done.
 
2012-11-14 02:19:39 PM  

thecpt: HaywoodJablonski: Too young

We're not talking about hermione grainger here.


We're not talking about most improved player here either.
 
2012-11-14 02:23:31 PM  

roc6783:

Roc6783: You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has threads, and those threads have to be guarded by men with keyboards. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Lieutenant Weinberg? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom! You weep for Cabrera and you curse the Angels. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know: that Cabrera's lack of MVP, while tragic, probably saved statistics. And my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves statistics! You don't want the truth, because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that thread! You need me on that thread! We use words like "WPA", "UZR", "stolen bases". We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punchline! I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very information that I provide, and then questions the manner in which I provide it! I would rather you just said "Thank you," and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a keyboard, and post. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you are entitled to!

Killer Cars: D ...


That was awesome.
 
2012-11-14 02:36:22 PM  
To anyone making the case that Cabrera should be MVP over Trout, please go on Twitter and make your case to @KeithLaw.

Just email me before yo do, so I can watch you get eviscerated firsthand.


Why? Keith Law is a farking idiot.
 
2012-11-14 02:43:39 PM  

Why Would I Read the Article: To anyone making the case that Cabrera should be MVP over Trout, please go on Twitter and make your case to @KeithLaw.

Just email me before yo do, so I can watch you get eviscerated firsthand.

Why? Keith Law is a farking idiot.


How dare you speak that way about the man who left Chris Carpenter off his 2009 NL Cy Young ballot because he "only" threw 192 innings.
 
2012-11-14 02:45:39 PM  
I love that there are people in the comments section telling Silver to "stick to politics" - basically ignoring that he got his start at Baseball Prospectus
 
2012-11-14 02:54:13 PM  
hmmm...

YES! unskewedMVP.com is available!

goldmine!
 
2012-11-14 03:18:45 PM  

Rex_Banner: I love that there are people in the comments section telling Silver to "stick to politics" - basically ignoring that he got his start at Baseball Prospectus


Creates stats to better analyze baseball, gets told to go back to the nerdery. Creates stats to better analyze political polls, gets told to go back to baseball. Goes back to baseball, gets told to go back to politics. You can explain that..quite easily, and in fact we had an article and Sports tab thread about it during the election week.
 
2012-11-14 03:25:27 PM  

roc6783: Creates stats to better analyze baseball, gets told to go back to the nerdery. Creates stats to better analyze political polls, gets told to go back to baseball. Goes back to baseball, gets told to go back to politics. You can explain that..quite easily, and in fact we had an article and Sports tab thread about it during the election week.


All he needs now is to submit a paper to the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and be told to go back to blogging, and the circle will be complete.
 
2012-11-14 03:28:31 PM  

thecpt: roc6783: Killer Cars: roc6783:

And don't wear that perfume in threads, it wrecks my concentration.


BTW slow clap


Reposted from the "Romo is special" thread yesterday:

Yes, I will use any excuse, no matter how tenuous, to shoehorn that scene into any discussion. You clearly have the capacity to cope with the factual reality of my statements.
 
2012-11-14 03:50:35 PM  
This should have had the "Obvious" tag.
 
2012-11-14 03:52:19 PM  
Ahead of the First Triple Crown in 45 years? Uh...No.
 
2012-11-14 03:53:06 PM  

slayer199: Ahead of the First Triple Crown in 45 years? Uh...No.


here we go...
 
2012-11-14 04:13:49 PM  
Anyone else hoping that they tie, like Stargell and Hernandez did in '79? That could possibly be the greatest troll of all time.
 
2012-11-14 04:18:00 PM  

Olympic Trolling Judge: roc6783: Creates stats to better analyze baseball, gets told to go back to the nerdery. Creates stats to better analyze political polls, gets told to go back to baseball. Goes back to baseball, gets told to go back to politics. You can explain that..quite easily, and in fact we had an article and Sports tab thread about it during the election week.

All he needs now is to submit a paper to the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and be told to go back to blogging, and the circle will be complete.


Nate goes back to blogging, people tell him to go back to looking at math equations.
 
2012-11-14 04:22:49 PM  
Interesting point on Tango's blog:

The NFL awards ONE MVP award, rather than an AFC MVP and an NFC MVP. Additionally, there's no real difference between AFC stats and NFC stats. NO ONE says "Sure, Drew Brees had the most TDs last year, but Brady had the most in the AFC!"

If the MLB moved to that system....Trout would be the MLB MVP winner, right? Cabrera didn't win the MLB triple crown (Posey and the other Cabrera both had higher averages), and that's really the only argument anyone uses for Cabrera.

There are, of course, reasons why the leagues are kept separate...but I wonder if that had ever been the case before (where, assuming Cabrera wins the AL, the AL, NL & MLB MVPs are 3 different people
 
2012-11-14 04:23:32 PM  

Rex_Banner: Anyone else hoping that they tie, like Stargell and Hernandez did in '79? That could possibly be the greatest troll of all time.


I'm rooting for another pitcher.
 
2012-11-14 04:32:53 PM  

TeamEd: But, the MVP award is not for the league's best player, it's for the player who was the most valuable in the previous season. And, about the only thing RBIs measure is situational productivity. That (i.e., RBIs) might normalize over the course of a few seasons, but for an award that goes to the guy that played better in one year, it should have some influence.

Consider a hockey analogy. Take two players: Player A scores 56 goals with a shooting percentage of 17.7% and player B scores 40 with a shooting percentage of 11.7%. On average, hockey players score on about 10% of their shots. You might reasonably suggest that player A's shooting percentage is unsustainably high and because of that his scoring next season is due for regression. You could reasonably predict that player B will prove to be a better scorer in the coming seasons. But, you can't argue that player B had a better goal scoring season. Goals measure goal scoring. Player A had a better scoring season. Period.


Except RBI doesn't measure situational hitting; you could directly measure the batting average or slugging percentage with men on base (a lot of fantasy sport sites have those splits). In baseball, RBI is as much a measure of how good the two or three hitters ahead of you are at getting on base as it is a measure of how good you are at bringing them home.

Incidentally, Trout's BA is .306 with runners on and .324 with RISP; Cabrera's equivalent numbers are .340 and .356.
 
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