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(TampaBay.com (St. Petersburg Tim)   "We're two or three elections away from Texas becoming a swing state" says GOP strategist   (tampabay.com ) divider line
    More: Obvious, GOP, Texas, swing states, GOP strategist, Mitt Romney, proposed amendments to the United States Constitution, Matthew Dowd, Southern strategy  
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4233 clicks; posted to Politics » on 11 Nov 2012 at 6:33 PM (4 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-11 04:37:16 PM  
I dunno. The GOP is probably going to start pandering to Hispanics via the Catholic angle and the hard work/entrepreneur angle.
 
2012-11-11 04:40:57 PM  

Brontes: I dunno. The GOP is probably going to start pandering to Hispanics via the Catholic angle and the hard work/entrepreneur angle.


If they are still telling them to self deport, I doubt the message will get through.
 
2012-11-11 04:42:29 PM  

Brontes: I dunno. The GOP is probably going to start pandering to Hispanics via the Catholic angle and the hard work/entrepreneur angle.


Bush did that, and it worked pretty well. The modern GOP has accreted so many racist mouth-breathers that it will be very difficult in the future. I can't imagine how immigrants will ever feel comfortable in such a xenophobic party.
 
2012-11-11 04:53:08 PM  
Let me guess: Swingin to some new neo-Confederate, pro-Secession party that makes the Tea Party look like Nancy Pelosi?
 
2012-11-11 04:54:31 PM  
Haven't people said that every election for a while now?
 
2012-11-11 04:54:43 PM  

Brontes: I dunno. The GOP is probably going to start pandering to Hispanics via the Catholic angle and the hard work/entrepreneur angle.


I imagine that they will start making an effort to appeal to Latinos, but at least for the next few elections I'm expecting it to be completely tone deaf and often in danger of doing more harm than good. Maybe some sort of taco luncheon recruitment drives. Piñata based campaign ads. That sort of thing. Maybe talking about their inclusion and how important the Latino community is to them while pointing to all the Latinos that are working for the white guys running the party.
 
2012-11-11 05:11:18 PM  
I've been saying for a while that Texas will go blue in 2020.
 
2012-11-11 05:15:08 PM  
I'll believe it when I see it. Otherwise, I remain skeptical.
 
2012-11-11 05:25:14 PM  
I just think it's impossible for a political party to leave that large a vacuum. yes, there's a lot of money to be made fleecing the Limbaugh/Beck audience, but that doesn't win elections. In '08 and '12, Houston TX - the energy capital of the goddam world and Mexico's Wal-Mart of guns, elected a black guy with the middle name "Hussein" over Melanoma/Winky and Vacant/Reid. That means something.

Ok, I'm not exactly sure what it means, but serisously, GOP, you have a duty to national politics. It too a proper ass-kicking from 'ol Ronnie to get us to wake up and realize it wasn't actually the depression any more. Now GO HOME, SLEEP IT OFF, TAKE A GODDAM SHOWER, OR WE'LL UNIONIZE YOUR CHURCH AND MANDATE FRENCH AS THE OFFICIAL LANGUAGE OF THE US.
 
2012-11-11 05:27:36 PM  
Romney blundered when he picked Ryan as running mate. Rubio is pretty popular in Florida and probably would have delivered the state, as well as making him not look evil to Hispanics.

Picking another crazy white boy was worse than Palin.
 
2012-11-11 05:32:35 PM  

Confabulat: Romney blundered when he picked Ryan as running mate. Rubio is pretty popular in Florida and probably would have delivered the state, as well as making him not look evil to Hispanics.

Picking another crazy white boy was worse than Palin.


Lets not get crazy. The staunch Republicans I worked with were very alarmed once they heard Ms. Sarah speak a few times. She ended up costing a lot of votes, and only gained back some lunatic fringe sorts. Ryan probably was a wash, gaining as many hardliners as he lost moderates.
 
2012-11-11 05:35:37 PM  

TheOmni: Brontes: I dunno. The GOP is probably going to start pandering to Hispanics via the Catholic angle and the hard work/entrepreneur angle.

I imagine that they will start making an effort to appeal to Latinos, but at least for the next few elections I'm expecting it to be completely tone deaf and often in danger of doing more harm than good. Maybe some sort of taco luncheon recruitment drives. Piñata based campaign ads. That sort of thing. Maybe talking about their inclusion and how important the Latino community is to them while pointing to all the Latinos that are working for the white guys running the party.


Look at how they tried to bring in African Americans. By telling them that the Dems just want to keep them on the plantation and on food stamps.
 
2012-11-11 05:43:18 PM  

Confabulat: Romney blundered when he picked Ryan as running mate. Rubio is pretty popular in Florida and probably would have delivered the state, as well as making him not look evil to Hispanics.

Picking another crazy white boy was worse than Palin.


Rubio could have taken Florida, Portman could have taken Ohio.

Neither would have changed anything.
 
2012-11-11 05:47:11 PM  

Confabulat: Rubio is pretty popular in Florida and probably would have delivered the state, as well as making him not look evil to Hispanics.


Unfortunately, Romney didn't need a running mate who would have delivered Florida.
He needed a running mate who would deliver Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado.

Although one who could deliver Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania would be an almost acceptable substitute.
 
2012-11-11 06:40:12 PM  
The GOP's answer will be to deport more Latino's illegal or not.
 
2012-11-11 06:44:13 PM  
Obama lost texas by what? 1.3 million votes? I wonder how many minorities just stayed home after hearing how texas was in the bag for romney? 500k 750k?

Seeing texas go blew...er blue, would be awesome.
 
2012-11-11 06:44:20 PM  

MisterTweak: I just think it's impossible for a political party to leave that large a vacuum. yes, there's a lot of money to be made fleecing the Limbaugh/Beck audience, but that doesn't win elections.


It doesn't matter whether it wins elections. The GOP GOTV and direct mail outreach has been hijacked by "entrepreneurs" who are very competent in running mail-order social policy schemes. There was a fantastic article in The Baffler by Rick Perlstein chronicaling exactly how the GOP lost control of their voter engagement via people tring to make a buck.

The road back to relevance is unclear.
 
2012-11-11 06:45:38 PM  

sparkeyjames: The GOP's answer will be to deport more Latino's illegal or not.


Actually, Obama administration has deported far more illegal aliens than the Bush administration.

www.motherjones.com 

But don't let facts get in the way of a good GOP rant.
 
2012-11-11 06:45:56 PM  

GAT_00: I've been saying for a while that Texas will go blue in 2020.


by 2020 either enough hard line republicans will have died from old age/preventable diseases that, assuming current trends continue, it almost guarantees a democratic presidency.
 
2012-11-11 06:47:06 PM  
I think it might be more appropriate to say Texas could go azul
 
2012-11-11 06:47:30 PM  

Spanky_McFarksalot: Obama lost texas by what? 1.3 million votes? I wonder how many minorities just stayed home after hearing how texas was in the bag for romney? 500k 750k?

Seeing texas go blew...er blue, would be awesome.


In the next four years, we are gonna grow by 2 million people, who demographically are going to vote Democrat before Republican

So yeah, they need to set up an actual ground game here, but the Democrats can make this state go blue

/kinda sad some of the GOP realize this; would have been sweet to take them by surprise
 
2012-11-11 06:47:46 PM  

Confabulat: Romney blundered when he picked Ryan as running mate. Rubio is pretty popular in Florida and probably would have delivered the state, as well as making him not look evil to Hispanics.

Picking another crazy white boy was worse than Palin.


I live in Wisconsin, and I predicted from day one that Ryan wouldn't even deliver Wisconsin to Romney. The Republicans were screwed the day Huntsman dropped out of the race. He's the only one who was sane enough to actually beat Obama.

Of course that's the reason he didn't have a chance in the Republican primaries. With current demographic changes, the chances that a Republican can win the presidency become smaller. And instead of moderating, I see them continuing to become an ever shrinking group of extremists.

/classic Fark Independent
//yep, voted for Romney
 
2012-11-11 06:50:10 PM  
www.window.state.tx.us 

Texas itself has predicted that by 2020 the hispanic population will be close to equal the white population.
 
2012-11-11 06:54:08 PM  
Benny Goodman approves.
 
2012-11-11 06:54:29 PM  

Brontes: I dunno. The GOP is probably going to start pandering to Hispanics via the Catholic angle and the hard work/entrepreneur angle.


Charles Krauthammer's prescription: give all the illegal immigrants amnesty.

For the party in general, however, the problem is hardly structural. It requires but a single policy change: Border fence plus amnesty.

Looks like Sean Hannity and some others have done a heel face turn on this as well.

Immigration reform seen as strategy to woo Latinos
 
2012-11-11 06:55:10 PM  
Kraut hammer already talking minimum amount they need to change to squeak by. No open dialogue about what's important to Latinos and/or what thy want to see, just more "we know better so they'll take it and like it."

I guess that's a strategy but I'm not sure they can assume the same level of gullibility that they get out ofthe southern mouth breather demographic. Latinos for the most part work pretty damn hard and I think they're applying the same to their politics.

Good luck though GOP, maybe this time you won't smack your head right into that wall.

Maybe.
 
2012-11-11 06:55:16 PM  
Expect the Texas GOP to salt the earth and switch to proportional EC awarding in the presidential cycle after it looks like a dem could win. That of course will be after they try and pull all the voter suppression bullshiat they can.
 
2012-11-11 06:57:44 PM  

MacEnvy: MisterTweak: I just think it's impossible for a political party to leave that large a vacuum. yes, there's a lot of money to be made fleecing the Limbaugh/Beck audience, but that doesn't win elections.

It doesn't matter whether it wins elections. The GOP GOTV and direct mail outreach has been hijacked by "entrepreneurs" who are very competent in running mail-order social policy schemes. There was a fantastic article in The Baffler by Rick Perlstein chronicaling exactly how the GOP lost control of their voter engagement via people tring to make a buck.

The road back to relevance is unclear.


I suspected as much. The Republicans are so heavy into capitalism that they would be the type to fleece their supposed belief system for a quick buck. After all, you didn't hear much Jesus squealing when it came to Romney's Mormon religion. The Republicans don't believe in anything but the almighty dollar, even at the cost of themselves.

It's a beautiful irony, isn't it? The Republicans can't even stand for their own party. Their lockstep was always an illusion.
 
2012-11-11 06:58:29 PM  
Isn't the definition of a swing state one that is purple but also key to the election for both parties?

If we get to the point that Texas is purple...then Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and possibly Georgia will have long since turned blue.

Texas wouldn't be a swing state so much as a cherry on top of the 450 point landslide.
 
2012-11-11 07:00:02 PM  

Brontes: I dunno. The GOP is probably going to start pandering to Hispanics via the Catholic angle and the hard work/entrepreneur angle.


The sad part? They'll probably buy into it. The GOP will either pull the Catholic and hard work/entrepreneur angle with a combination of illegally buying votes under the table.
 
2012-11-11 07:00:26 PM  
Well, assuming "Swing state" is defined as winning by less than 10%, then yea, I guess I could agree with that.

/DRTFA
 
2012-11-11 07:00:37 PM  
Imagine what will happen if the democrats nominate a white guy for 2016 and the republicans nominate a Hispanic candidate?.....

Haa! i wonder if the right wing racist nut jobs would be torn between voting for their own race or their own party?
 
2012-11-11 07:01:17 PM  
a2.ec-images.myspacecdn.com
 
2012-11-11 07:01:49 PM  

St_Francis_P: Brontes: I dunno. The GOP is probably going to start pandering to Hispanics via the Catholic angle and the hard work/entrepreneur angle.

Bush did that, and it worked pretty well. The modern GOP has accreted so many racist mouth-breathers that it will be very difficult in the future. I can't imagine how immigrants will ever feel comfortable in such a xenophobic party.


Seems like Romney tried it too, and I honestly think he would have succeeded (partially) except he is the avatar of every "evil businessman" trope ever and has less charisma than John Kerry.

Yeah, I went there.
 
2012-11-11 07:04:18 PM  

PawisBetlog: Kraut hammer already talking minimum amount they need to change to squeak by. No open dialogue about what's important to Latinos and/or what thy want to see, just more "we know better so they'll take it and like it."

I guess that's a strategy but I'm not sure they can assume the same level of gullibility that they get out ofthe southern mouth breather demographic. Latinos for the most part work pretty damn hard and I think they're applying the same to their politics.

Good luck though GOP, maybe this time you won't smack your head right into that wall.

Maybe.


Britney Spear's Speculum: Expect the Texas GOP to salt the earth and switch to proportional EC awarding in the presidential cycle after it looks like a dem could win. That of course will be after they try and pull all the voter suppression bullshiat they can.


I think we're giving the GOP too much credit. They were completely unable to silence their derpiest members from running on rape. And now we're expecting them to not only reach out to Hispanics but also keep their Derps happy as well? It simply won't happen. All this talk of it via Hannity is a dead end. That's why they're using punditry first so they can fire them if the Derps lash out...which they expectedly always will.

The GOP is going to drop this as soon as they find a way to do so. They won't be able to reach out to Hispanics unless the whole of Arizona turns blue and Sheriff Joe is arrested for his extensive crimes. The amount of hatred spread in the last two years with racial profiling and the like has probably lost the Republicans the Hispanic votes for good.
 
2012-11-11 07:06:17 PM  
It will be interesting to see how long it takes the GOP to try to win over minorities through favorable legislation instead of misleading ads on Univision
 
2012-11-11 07:08:18 PM  

Anenu: GAT_00: I've been saying for a while that Texas will go blue in 2020.

by 2020 either enough hard line republicans will have died from old age/preventable diseases that, assuming current trends continue, it almost guarantees a democratic presidency.


Not to mention by 2020 people now aged 10-18 will be voting and will be overwhelmingly be Obama-influenced plus see no point to current day Republicans' wet dreams of personhood amendments and antigay jihads.
 
2012-11-11 07:09:06 PM  
well, in the last election 237 (?) were considered safe democrat, add Texas' 38 and say goodnight to republicans in the white house except by invitation.
 
2012-11-11 07:09:37 PM  

MisterTweak: In '08 and '12, Houston TX - the energy capital of the goddam world and Mexico's Wal-Mart of guns, elected a black guy with the middle name "Hussein" over Melanoma/Winky and Vacant/Reid. That means something.


Don't forget that Houston elected an openly gay mayor... then re-elected her..The teaheadists were trying to boot her for a $5/house fee to improve water and sewer lines..
 
2012-11-11 07:10:41 PM  

speckio: Imagine what will happen if the democrats nominate a white guy for 2016 and the republicans nominate a Hispanic candidate?.....

Haa! i wonder if the right wing racist nut jobs would be torn between voting for their own race or their own party?


The lulz will be epic. It'll have to be the whitest hispanic to ever walk the face of the earth.
But they'll have a hispanic VP before they have a hispanic nominee.
 
2012-11-11 07:13:47 PM  
Yes, more people will stop pulling the cart so they can ride in it.
 
2012-11-11 07:14:12 PM  
So, as all of these deep blue states turn purple...how long til states like California and New York start beating the drum for some real liberals?

I mean, as the crazy far right gets marginalizes, the democrats will happily move to fill the electoral vacuum, but there's got to be a growing segment that is annoyed at a center-right Democratic Party.
 
2012-11-11 07:14:45 PM  

speckio: Imagine what will happen if the democrats nominate a white guy for 2016 and the republicans nominate a Hispanic candidate?.....

Haa! i wonder if the right wing racist nut jobs would be torn between voting for their own race or their own party?


It will be Hillary vs. Jeb ....... a white woman vs a Hispanic-in-law.
 
2012-11-11 07:14:48 PM  

Confabulat: Romney blundered when he picked Ryan as running mate. Rubio is pretty popular in Florida and probably would have delivered the state, as well as making him not look evil to Hispanics.

Picking another crazy white boy was worse than Palin.


Rubio may have helped in Florida, but not the rest of the country.The majority of Latinos here are Messicans who don't like the fact that Cubans get special treatment from the GOP.
 
2012-11-11 07:16:34 PM  

HempHead: sparkeyjames: The GOP's answer will be to deport more Latino's illegal or not.

Actually, Obama administration has deported far more illegal aliens than the Bush administration.

[www.motherjones.com image 630x458] 

But don't let facts get in the way of a good GOP rant.


Ahem... It seems either you've left out some critical information of you are cherry picking in order to make the other side look bad.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/08/27/obama-is - deporting-more-immigrants-than-bush-republicans-dont-think-thats-enoug h/


The administration's stated goal is to prioritize the deportation of criminal, dangerous illegal immigrants
 
2012-11-11 07:16:42 PM  

randomjsa: Yes, more people will stop pulling the cart so they can ride in it.


Hey, look! It's one of those non-specific things you can say in just about any pol-tab thread and feel like you've contributed something.
 
2012-11-11 07:16:52 PM  

Kevin72: speckio: Imagine what will happen if the democrats nominate a white guy for 2016 and the republicans nominate a Hispanic candidate?.....

Haa! i wonder if the right wing racist nut jobs would be torn between voting for their own race or their own party?

It will be Hillary vs. Jeb ....... a white woman vs a Hispanic-in-law.


I refuse to believe that the GOP (and American public) is stupid enough to accept a Bush in the White House

/not a woman joke
 
2012-11-11 07:18:18 PM  
I don't know, GOP talking heads have a strong presence in Texas. A few months back I was there on business and the rental car didn't have XM so I scanned the FM stations:

Talk radio.....country....talk radio....sports....country...talk radio....sports.....country....rock..... hip-hop....talk radio.....sports.....talk radio
 
2012-11-11 07:19:01 PM  

Kevin72: Not to mention by 2020 people now aged 10-18 will be voting and will be overwhelmingly be Obama-influenced plus see no point to current day Republicans' wet dreams of personhood amendments and antigay jihads.


If those pulling the strings as far as the Republican agenda goes wake up and realize that at the very least they need to focus on economic conservatism and that pulling the anti- gay, women, immigrant, etc. card is something they need to stop doing to even have a shot at capturing the youth vote...

Ah, who am I kidding. They won't. And Obama has made leaps and bounds as far as voter database / GOTV efforts go. Even when he's done running what he set up is gonna work well (as long as there's a decent caretaker running the ground game show) at grabbing those young'uns and making sure they get the hell out to vote.

And if the Republicans can't STFU about anti- gay, women, immigrant, etc. nonsense, those kids will be turned off pretty f--king quickly.

Not to mention that (I believe) thanks to the Obamacare young adult health care reforms, more kids are going to be able to actually vote in their liberal heathen college towns instead of having to scramble to figure out how to vote at home (At least in our state, you had to keep your "permanent address" at your parents house to stay on their health care when I was in college. And you can't vote absentee your first election - unless you make it to your city clerk and apply in person, of course, during normal M-F business hours when kids in college normally visit home from school. I don't believe that is the case anymore.)

Anyway, keep up that anti-gay hand-wringing, GOP

andrewgelman.com

and anti-women hand-wringing:

facts.kff.org

and anti-immigrant hand-wringing:

pewresearch.org 

Yeah the last one's not by age, but hell, I had a (Ukrainian) friend in HS who had a 4.0 who couldn't go to college since he was illegal (brought here as a child) and his family couldn't afford it. I'm sure that + having gay friends + watching girlfriends struggle to find BC and Plan B was totally unique to my own experiences when I was a young adult.
 
2012-11-11 07:20:10 PM  

Lorelle: The majority of Latinos here are Messicans who don't like the fact that Cubans get special treatment from the GOP.


That's a really good point and a problem for both political parties. White folks call them "Hispanics," but they do not see themselves like that at all. Call a Cuban a Mexican and see his eyes cross in fury. They are not a group.
 
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