If you can read this, either the style sheet didn't load or you have an older browser that doesn't support style sheets. Try clearing your browser cache and refreshing the page.

(The New York Times)   Nate Silver does a recap of all the polling firms to see how accurate they actually were. CNN? Pretty good. Rasmussen? Pretty bad. Gallup? It might be time to get out of the polling business   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 39
    More: Cool  
•       •       •

6137 clicks; posted to Politics » on 11 Nov 2012 at 11:03 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



Voting Results (Funniest)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest


Archived thread
2012-11-11 12:26:29 AM  
18 votes:
I refuse to take him seriously while he remains thin and refuses to speak in basso profundo
2012-11-11 08:15:54 AM  
9 votes:
He just completely ignores Unskewed's poll.

WTF Nate?
2012-11-11 12:53:00 AM  
6 votes:

BSABSVR: Marcus Aurelius: I'm holding out for Esperanto. You just KNOW he can speak it, the little shiat.

Math estas la skatolo foil tiu thin homosexuals kaj liberals al gardi dio de ilia brainwaves


I was told there would be no math estas.
2012-11-11 11:17:54 AM  
5 votes:
i566.photobucket.com
2012-11-11 11:28:21 AM  
4 votes:

Gwyrddu: Krymson Tyde: He just completely ignores Unskewed's poll.

WTF Nate?

Unskewed polls wasn't actually a poll though, it was a forecast based on polls, just like Nate Silver except without the math.


but with 1500% more Jeesus that conservative crave!!!
2012-11-11 12:51:35 AM  
4 votes:

Marcus Aurelius: I'm holding out for Esperanto. You just KNOW he can speak it, the little shiat.


Math estas la skatolo foil tiu thin homosexuals kaj liberals al gardi dio de ilia brainwaves
2012-11-11 11:47:38 AM  
3 votes:

BKITU: "Rocks, sand, and grains don't vote."


You haven't looked at Republican voters lately, have you?
2012-11-11 11:45:44 AM  
3 votes:

DubyaHater: A couple of my right-leaning friends are still having teenage girl-level hissy fits over the election. They're looking at the overall popular vote map and wondering how Obama could possibly win "with that sea of red" in the middle of the country. I don't have the heart to explain it and I'd rather not lose a friend over the election.


"Rocks, sand, and grains don't vote."
2012-11-11 11:44:26 AM  
3 votes:

DubyaHater: A couple of my right-leaning friends are still having teenage girl-level hissy fits over the election. They're looking at the overall popular vote map and wondering how Obama could possibly win "with that sea of red" in the middle of the country. I don't have the heart to explain it and I'd rather not lose a friend over the election.


They honestly don't understand the concept of population density?
2012-11-11 11:42:17 AM  
3 votes:
A couple of my right-leaning friends are still having teenage girl-level hissy fits over the election. They're looking at the overall popular vote map and wondering how Obama could possibly win "with that sea of red" in the middle of the country. I don't have the heart to explain it and I'd rather not lose a friend over the election.
2012-11-11 12:34:27 AM  
3 votes:
When I was in high school, high variance in your date was a GOOD thing.
2012-11-11 01:11:05 PM  
2 votes:
This sucks. The only reason that I voted for Romney is that all the polls said he was gonna win, and I didn't want to get stuck voting for a loser.

I mean, that is why they shamelessly release ridiculously inaccurate polls, right?


/didn't vote Romney
2012-11-11 12:30:00 PM  
2 votes:

namatad: Since when has the GOP been know for not listening to garbage?


Well, it does seem that they're only happy when it rains.
2012-11-11 11:56:38 AM  
2 votes:

12349876:
So they're population density deniers?


Have you ever read political textbooks in Texas?

"In the beginning, God created the heavens and the Earth. The EARTH. As a creation of God, the Earth itself is holy. And those districts which contain more Earth per person have move divinely-inspired direction on who the best person as President should be."
2012-11-11 11:53:51 AM  
2 votes:
Whatever. I will still trust my much MANLIER right wing derp wizards, even though they're wrong about everything because they're stupid or deliberately trying to deceive me:

imageshack.us
2012-11-11 11:13:31 AM  
2 votes:
fta some polling firms may engage in "herding" toward the end of the campaign, changing their methods and assumptions such that their results are more in line with those of other polling firms.

I'm so old...

How old are you?

I'm so old that when I was a kid we called that lying

/laughter
//applause
2012-11-11 11:11:37 AM  
2 votes:

namatad: PLEASE dont change GOP!! We love you just the way you are!!!
Whatever you do, dont poll people who voted against you and ask why.
But if you do a poll, PLEASE use Gallup.


images.45cat.com
2012-11-11 11:05:41 AM  
2 votes:

namatad: PLEASE dont change GOP!! We love you just the way you are!!!


Did you see the Boortz article from earlier this week where he was telling the GOP to give up gay rights, abortion, and a few other things? Last night I caught him basically saying Romney wasn't conservative enough.
2012-11-11 12:36:52 AM  
2 votes:

BSABSVR: I refuse to take him seriously while he remains thin and refuses to speak in basso profundo


I'm holding out for Esperanto. You just KNOW he can speak it, the little shiat.
2012-11-12 01:40:32 AM  
1 votes:
K. Rove said he corrected the polls back to the 2004 dem/repub/indie demographics, on the presumption that 2008 was a one-off, that Obama was simply riding an anti Repub wave, and that 2012 turnout would look like 2004 and not 2008.

Not to mention ignoring changing trends in voter demographics that are independent of political preference.

Similar logic to Unskewed. 

A whooole lotta assumption / potential error / echo chamber / Super PAC waste going on there.
2012-11-11 08:48:09 PM  
1 votes:

James F. Campbell: You should: apparently you don't know what "academician" means.


Barista?
2012-11-11 03:52:07 PM  
1 votes:

ToeKnee666: I've seen that argument. In the specific words, "The winner lost the geographic majority?" GEOGRAPHIC MAJORITY. If only it were just land owners who could vote.

But I remembered seeing the argument once before...



I always tell them "land doesn't vote"
2012-11-11 03:06:02 PM  
1 votes:

Katie98_KT: I thought the problem with Gallup's polls was their "likely voter" model, not their actual polling?


I'm a Gallup member. Took a survey over the phone about 6 or 7 years ago and now I fill out surveys for them maybe once every two weeks via a secure website.

The cool thing is I get a unique password each time. I give them out on TF Discussion every now and then.
2012-11-11 02:25:23 PM  
1 votes:

DubyaHater: A couple of my right-leaning friends are still having teenage girl-level hissy fits over the election. They're looking at the overall popular vote map and wondering how Obama could possibly win "with that sea of red" in the middle of the country. I don't have the heart to explain it and I'd rather not lose a friend over the election.


I've seen that argument. In the specific words, "The winner lost the geographic majority?" GEOGRAPHIC MAJORITY. If only it were just land owners who could vote.

But I remembered seeing the argument once before...
www.obeythefist.com
2012-11-11 02:09:42 PM  
1 votes:

James F. Campbell: Engineers, however, as a group, are spectacularly stupid compared to, say, academicians in ....English, or philosophy.


That explains why I always feel above my station at a Starbucks.
2012-11-11 12:43:47 PM  
1 votes:

CynicalLA: BigBooper: The fact that Romney was blindsided by the elections outcome shows that he may not have been the best choice to lead our country.

They definitely need more people like you voting Republican. There is just too much crazy in the party for me to even consider voting for them.


I'm curious why BigBooper voted for Romney in the first place. I voted for Obama in spite of being pissed about the lack of a public option, and his continuation of the worst parts of the Patriot Act, but was thrilled by his Keynsian stimulus, winding down the wars, and general attitude of inclusiveness. Romney & Ryan promised to drive us into another depression, and their support for the culture wars against immigrants, gays and women were just over the top. They didn't look up to any of the major challenges facing this country, and would have been as shocked when their plans didn't work as they were about being shellacked in the EC.

But enough about why I voted for Obama... ;^)
2012-11-11 12:10:47 PM  
1 votes:

LouDobbsAwaaaay: DubyaHater: A couple of my right-leaning friends are still having teenage girl-level hissy fits over the election. They're looking at the overall popular vote map and wondering how Obama could possibly win "with that sea of red" in the middle of the country. I don't have the heart to explain it and I'd rather not lose a friend over the election.

I got a lot of this from a right-wing friend in the last election (he has since rage-quit our FB friendship, so I don't know how he handled this one, though I expect he didn't take it well). His arguments for the state really counting for republicans were: (1) if you counted the vote based on the total acreage of counties voting R/D, R wins, and (2) public employees shouldn't be allowed to vote because they just vote for the Dem who will give them more freebies. I don't know if he was this stupid back when we were actual friends in college, or if he just descended into madness when he moved to northern WI and got lost in the echo-chamber.


Well, that's a new straw to grasp at, I'll give him that.

Not "majority of the country if you look at the map is red waaah!" but actually working out the acreage, that's a new angle. MATHEMATICAL!
2012-11-11 12:05:40 PM  
1 votes:
This article: Too gay sounding; didn't read
2012-11-11 11:52:26 AM  
1 votes:

LouDobbsAwaaaay: DubyaHater: A couple of my right-leaning friends are still having teenage girl-level hissy fits over the election. They're looking at the overall popular vote map and wondering how Obama could possibly win "with that sea of red" in the middle of the country. I don't have the heart to explain it and I'd rather not lose a friend over the election.

I got a lot of this from a right-wing friend in the last election (he has since rage-quit our FB friendship, so I don't know how he handled this one, though I expect he didn't take it well). His arguments for the state really counting for republicans were: (1) if you counted the vote based on the total acreage of counties voting R/D, R wins, and (2) public employees shouldn't be allowed to vote because they just vote for the Dem who will give them more freebies. I don't know if he was this stupid back when we were actual friends in college, or if he just descended into madness when he moved to northern WI and got lost in the echo-chamber.


So by that logic, military service members, veterans, and senior citizens shouldn't be allowed to vote either, since they're all on the government dole. Right?
2012-11-11 11:48:46 AM  
1 votes:

DubyaHater: A couple of my right-leaning friends are still having teenage girl-level hissy fits over the election. They're looking at the overall popular vote map and wondering how Obama could possibly win "with that sea of red" in the middle of the country. I don't have the heart to explain it and I'd rather not lose a friend over the election.


I got a lot of this from a right-wing friend in the last election (he has since rage-quit our FB friendship, so I don't know how he handled this one, though I expect he didn't take it well). His arguments for the state really counting for republicans were: (1) if you counted the vote based on the total acreage of counties voting R/D, R wins, and (2) public employees shouldn't be allowed to vote because they just vote for the Dem who will give them more freebies. I don't know if he was this stupid back when we were actual friends in college, or if he just descended into madness when he moved to northern WI and got lost in the echo-chamber.
2012-11-11 11:45:51 AM  
1 votes:

DubyaHater: A couple of my right-leaning friends are still having teenage girl-level hissy fits over the election. They're looking at the overall popular vote map and wondering how Obama could possibly win "with that sea of red" in the middle of the country. I don't have the heart to explain it and I'd rather not lose a friend over the election.


So they're population density deniers?
2012-11-11 11:35:59 AM  
1 votes:
Last time Scott Rasmussen's polling firm did so badly calling a presidential election, he shut it down (Portrait of America) and opened a new one (Rasmussen Reports) in an effort to distance himself from his own failure.

I wonder what he's going to call his new polling firm?
2012-11-11 11:19:56 AM  
1 votes:
However, it turned out that most polling firms underestimated Mr. Obama's performance, so those that had what had seemed to be Democratic-leaning results were often closest to the final outcome.

Derpublican hacks on Fixed News Fair and Benghazi were right! The polls aren't accurate
2012-11-11 11:15:57 AM  
1 votes:

Don't Troll Me Bro!: Not completely related, but I used some of Nate's data to make this. Feel free to post it on FB, or wherever people want to rationalize voter ID laws and all the other shiat the GOP has been doing to suppress voter turnout.


This looks... algebraic.
2012-11-11 11:13:31 AM  
1 votes:

BSABSVR: Marcus Aurelius: I'm holding out for Esperanto. You just KNOW he can speak it, the little shiat.

Math estas la skatolo foil tiu thin homosexuals kaj liberals al gardi dio de ilia brainwaves


The fascinating thing about Esperanto is it pretty much preserved everything that was wrong with languages.

Gender...oh fark it...I quit....
2012-11-11 10:54:22 AM  
1 votes:

Hanky: Gallup should be ashamed. Hooray for valid sampling and normal distributions of multiple polls


This explains the GOP SHOCK(tm).
Without proper handling of these biases, there would be no way to use the data coming from the polls.
If the GOP cherry-picked which polls they used for their forecasting, or WORSE, their own internal polls with even more biases, this would explain karl roves "confusion."

Garbage in - garbage out. Since when has the GOP been know for not listening to garbage? Been a long time.

Add in the GOPs refusal to have underlings who are allowed to disagree with the people in power and TADA, you get a bunch of sycophants and yes-men. This leads to the environment which we saw for 2008 and 2012.

PLEASE dont change GOP!! We love you just the way you are!!!
Whatever you do, dont poll people who voted against you and ask why.
But if you do a poll, PLEASE use Gallup.
2012-11-11 09:36:47 AM  
1 votes:
if he keeps telling it like it is and proving his methodology to be correct, someone is gonna put a hit out on his ass. I admire his dedication to the truth but there are a LOT of people out there who do NOT like it when you call 'em out on their bullshiat. you can't just walk away from those people clean...they'll find you and they will get you.

I hope he's got a REAL good bodyguard.
2012-11-11 08:23:43 AM  
1 votes:

Krymson Tyde: He just completely ignores Unskewed's poll.

WTF Nate?


I think "I'm not even going to dignify that with a response" is a perfectly valid answer to anything regarding unskewed polls.
2012-11-11 12:19:06 AM  
1 votes:
Why is PPP not included? I believe they were the most accurate.
 
Displayed 39 of 39 comments

View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest


This thread is archived, and closed to new comments.

Continue Farking
Submit a Link »
On Twitter





In Other Media


  1. Links are submitted by members of the Fark community.

  2. When community members submit a link, they also write a custom headline for the story.

  3. Other Farkers comment on the links. This is the number of comments. Click here to read them.

  4. Click here to submit a link.

Report