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(The New York Times)   Nate Silver does a recap of all the polling firms to see how accurate they actually were. CNN? Pretty good. Rasmussen? Pretty bad. Gallup? It might be time to get out of the polling business   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 166
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6135 clicks; posted to Politics » on 11 Nov 2012 at 11:03 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-11 12:19:06 AM
Why is PPP not included? I believe they were the most accurate.
 
2012-11-11 12:20:36 AM
Gallup should be ashamed. Hooray for valid sampling and normal distributions of multiple polls
 
2012-11-11 12:23:15 AM
I'm an idiot. I see PPP now.
 
2012-11-11 12:26:29 AM
I refuse to take him seriously while he remains thin and refuses to speak in basso profundo
 
2012-11-11 12:34:27 AM
When I was in high school, high variance in your date was a GOOD thing.
 
2012-11-11 12:36:52 AM

BSABSVR: I refuse to take him seriously while he remains thin and refuses to speak in basso profundo


I'm holding out for Esperanto. You just KNOW he can speak it, the little shiat.
 
2012-11-11 12:51:35 AM

Marcus Aurelius: I'm holding out for Esperanto. You just KNOW he can speak it, the little shiat.


Math estas la skatolo foil tiu thin homosexuals kaj liberals al gardi dio de ilia brainwaves
 
2012-11-11 12:53:00 AM

BSABSVR: Marcus Aurelius: I'm holding out for Esperanto. You just KNOW he can speak it, the little shiat.

Math estas la skatolo foil tiu thin homosexuals kaj liberals al gardi dio de ilia brainwaves


I was told there would be no math estas.
 
2012-11-11 02:09:47 AM

BSABSVR: I refuse to take him seriously while he remains thin and refuses to speak in basso profundo


I chuckled.
 
2012-11-11 07:14:03 AM

Hanky: Gallup should be ashamed. Hooray for valid sampling and normal distributions of multiple polls


It's starting to look like, had he disregarded certain polls, his percentage for an Obama win would likely have been in the high 90s rather than the low 90s.
 
2012-11-11 08:15:54 AM
He just completely ignores Unskewed's poll.

WTF Nate?
 
2012-11-11 08:23:43 AM

Krymson Tyde: He just completely ignores Unskewed's poll.

WTF Nate?


I think "I'm not even going to dignify that with a response" is a perfectly valid answer to anything regarding unskewed polls.
 
2012-11-11 09:36:47 AM
if he keeps telling it like it is and proving his methodology to be correct, someone is gonna put a hit out on his ass. I admire his dedication to the truth but there are a LOT of people out there who do NOT like it when you call 'em out on their bullshiat. you can't just walk away from those people clean...they'll find you and they will get you.

I hope he's got a REAL good bodyguard.
 
2012-11-11 09:39:44 AM

BSABSVR: I refuse to take him seriously while he remains thin and refuses to speak in basso profundo


Well, Dean Chambers has the basso buffo down.
 
2012-11-11 10:05:09 AM
 
2012-11-11 10:16:37 AM

DrRatchet: Maybe Gallup hasn't been in the polling business for some years now...

"Galllup would inflate the number of hours required to complete the work, usually by a multiple of two or three times"


Oh, they're definitely poling someone
 
2012-11-11 10:17:45 AM
How did Unskewed Polls do?
 
2012-11-11 10:26:43 AM

vygramul: How did Unskewed Polls do?


badly.

that said, the guy who ran unskewed polls admitted he was dead wrong and manned up and apologized to Nate Silver.
 
2012-11-11 10:54:22 AM

Hanky: Gallup should be ashamed. Hooray for valid sampling and normal distributions of multiple polls


This explains the GOP SHOCK(tm).
Without proper handling of these biases, there would be no way to use the data coming from the polls.
If the GOP cherry-picked which polls they used for their forecasting, or WORSE, their own internal polls with even more biases, this would explain karl roves "confusion."

Garbage in - garbage out. Since when has the GOP been know for not listening to garbage? Been a long time.

Add in the GOPs refusal to have underlings who are allowed to disagree with the people in power and TADA, you get a bunch of sycophants and yes-men. This leads to the environment which we saw for 2008 and 2012.

PLEASE dont change GOP!! We love you just the way you are!!!
Whatever you do, dont poll people who voted against you and ask why.
But if you do a poll, PLEASE use Gallup.
 
2012-11-11 10:57:42 AM

Weaver95: vygramul: How did Unskewed Polls do?

badly.

that said, the guy who ran unskewed polls admitted he was dead wrong and manned up and apologized to Nate Silver.


He even apologized for calling him effeminate.
 
2012-11-11 11:05:41 AM

namatad: PLEASE dont change GOP!! We love you just the way you are!!!


Did you see the Boortz article from earlier this week where he was telling the GOP to give up gay rights, abortion, and a few other things? Last night I caught him basically saying Romney wasn't conservative enough.
 
2012-11-11 11:08:32 AM
Interesting that Gallup's bias was exactly their average error. Take away their bias and hey, they're exactly accurate!

But man, their bias is terrible.
 
2012-11-11 11:09:10 AM

Weaver95: vygramul: How did Unskewed Polls do?

badly.

that said, the guy who ran unskewed polls admitted he was dead wrong and manned up and apologized to Nate Silver.



And made off to the bank with how much in advertising dollars because the entire right-wing derposphere were clicking on his site 50 times a second?

The guy was a painfully obvious "Tell the conservatives what they want to hear and profit off of that" fraud.

/kinda like Fox News.
 
2012-11-11 11:09:53 AM

antidisestablishmentarianism: namatad: PLEASE dont change GOP!! We love you just the way you are!!!

Did you see the Boortz article from earlier this week where he was telling the GOP to give up gay rights, abortion, and a few other things? Last night I caught him basically saying Romney wasn't conservative enough.


The GOP is honing their Romneyitis so they can mean nothing to anybody.
 
2012-11-11 11:10:03 AM

antidisestablishmentarianism: namatad: PLEASE dont change GOP!! We love you just the way you are!!!

Did you see the Boortz article from earlier this week where he was telling the GOP to give up gay rights, abortion, and a few other things? Last night I caught him basically saying Romney wasn't conservative enough.


It's going to be tough for them to change. They dug themselves into a hole with the whole Tea Party thing. Those people won't accept compromise.
 
2012-11-11 11:10:12 AM

nekom: Krymson Tyde: He just completely ignores Unskewed's poll.

WTF Nate?

I think "I'm not even going to dignify that with a response" is a perfectly valid answer to anything regarding unskewed polls.


Also the fact that it was another poll aggregator and not a poll at all.
 
2012-11-11 11:11:37 AM

namatad: PLEASE dont change GOP!! We love you just the way you are!!!
Whatever you do, dont poll people who voted against you and ask why.
But if you do a poll, PLEASE use Gallup.


images.45cat.com
 
2012-11-11 11:12:18 AM
Not completely related, but I used some of Nate's data to make this. Feel free to post it on FB, or wherever people want to rationalize voter ID laws and all the other shiat the GOP has been doing to suppress voter turnout.

oi45.tinypic.com
 
2012-11-11 11:12:19 AM
Pretty interesting about how all we heard from the rightwingosphere was "polls r biased against Republicans!!1"... turns out that, on average, polls were actually biased against Democrats.
 
2012-11-11 11:13:31 AM
fta some polling firms may engage in "herding" toward the end of the campaign, changing their methods and assumptions such that their results are more in line with those of other polling firms.

I'm so old...

How old are you?

I'm so old that when I was a kid we called that lying

/laughter
//applause
 
2012-11-11 11:13:31 AM

BSABSVR: Marcus Aurelius: I'm holding out for Esperanto. You just KNOW he can speak it, the little shiat.

Math estas la skatolo foil tiu thin homosexuals kaj liberals al gardi dio de ilia brainwaves


The fascinating thing about Esperanto is it pretty much preserved everything that was wrong with languages.

Gender...oh fark it...I quit....
 
2012-11-11 11:15:22 AM

The Dreaded Rear Admiral: Pretty interesting about how all we heard from the rightwingosphere was "polls r biased against Republicans!!1"... turns out that, on average, polls were actually biased against Democrats.


And the right is never angry at their own sources for lying to them. Repeatedly.
 
2012-11-11 11:15:57 AM

Don't Troll Me Bro!: Not completely related, but I used some of Nate's data to make this. Feel free to post it on FB, or wherever people want to rationalize voter ID laws and all the other shiat the GOP has been doing to suppress voter turnout.


This looks... algebraic.
 
2012-11-11 11:16:02 AM
<b><a href="http://www.fark.com/comments/7428291/80617822#c80617822" target="_blank">The Dreaded Rear Admiral</a>:</b> <i>Pretty interesting about how all we heard from the rightwingosphere was "polls r biased against Republicans!!1"... turns out that, on average, polls were actually biased against Democrats.</i>

I think it is a matter of most polls didn't anticipate how effective obama's get out to vote efforts would be. From what I read his was the first campaign to run it as well as they did so it likely didn't show up
 
2012-11-11 11:16:14 AM
Unskewed went in to promote an agenda, it was not trying to be a scientific look. Thats the main difference between Silver and the right wing that is bashing him. He is looking at facts, they are looking at opinions then trying to make up facts to support opinions.

Silver, Dr. Wang, etc are scientists or stats geeks. They would report if Romney were ahead. Only he wasn't.

Weaver: I haven't seen any derp over taking out pollsters or poll aggregators. Are you seeing something in your travels through a much more red part of of the country than I?

Most derp hate post election seems squarely focused on the ursurper, "the media," and the usual suspects (libby lib libs). Silver got one right, Gallup got one wrong. Why's that make him a target?
 
2012-11-11 11:17:54 AM
i566.photobucket.com
 
2012-11-11 11:19:16 AM

Weaver95: I hope he's got a REAL good bodyguard.


Bodyguards are slim protection against an unexplained car or small pane crash.
 
2012-11-11 11:19:56 AM
However, it turned out that most polling firms underestimated Mr. Obama's performance, so those that had what had seemed to be Democratic-leaning results were often closest to the final outcome.

Derpublican hacks on Fixed News Fair and Benghazi were right! The polls aren't accurate
 
2012-11-11 11:22:46 AM
I thought the problem with Gallup's polls was their "likely voter" model, not their actual polling?
 
2012-11-11 11:24:25 AM

vygramul: How did Unskewed Polls do?


Unskewed Polls was neither unskewed or pollsters. They do poll meta-analysis.
 
2012-11-11 11:25:24 AM
It's just too funny that the Fark Independents ended up confusing their alternate reality polling.
 
2012-11-11 11:26:22 AM

Krymson Tyde: He just completely ignores Unskewed's poll.

WTF Nate?


Unskewed polls wasn't actually a poll though, it was a forecast based on polls, just like Nate Silver except without the math.
 
2012-11-11 11:28:21 AM

Gwyrddu: Krymson Tyde: He just completely ignores Unskewed's poll.

WTF Nate?

Unskewed polls wasn't actually a poll though, it was a forecast based on polls, just like Nate Silver except without the math.


but with 1500% more Jeesus that conservative crave!!!
 
2012-11-11 11:29:40 AM

neenerist: vygramul: How did Unskewed Polls do?

Unskewed Polls was neither unskewed or pollsters. They do poll meta-analysis.


Agh, this.

/don't know if you couldcall it "analysis" really but polling it wasn't.
 
2012-11-11 11:32:35 AM
that said, the guy who ran unskewed polls admitted he was dead wrong and manned up and apologized to Nate Silver.

Chambers DIDN'T apologize for this rant: Silver is "of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the 'Mr. New Castrati' voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program."
 
2012-11-11 11:35:03 AM

StreetlightInTheGhetto: neenerist: vygramul: How did Unskewed Polls do?

Unskewed Polls was neither unskewed or pollsters. They do poll meta-analysis.

Agh, this.

/don't know if you couldcall it "analysis" really but polling it wasn't.


It was actually a rhetorical question. I didn't expect so many people to answer it seriously.
 
2012-11-11 11:35:22 AM
I wonder what the REAL results would have been if all the Republican shenanigans hadn't worked. The GOP succeeded in getting the results as close as they were.

Unfortunately some still believe all this cunning could still work next time.

/second post ever
 
2012-11-11 11:35:59 AM
Last time Scott Rasmussen's polling firm did so badly calling a presidential election, he shut it down (Portrait of America) and opened a new one (Rasmussen Reports) in an effort to distance himself from his own failure.

I wonder what he's going to call his new polling firm?
 
2012-11-11 11:36:50 AM

Weaver95: vygramul: How did Unskewed Polls do?

badly.

that said, the guy who ran unskewed polls admitted he was dead wrong and manned up and apologized to Nate Silver.


Not only that, but he said that he ordered a copy of Silver's book and wants to figure out where he went wrong.

Dean Chambers was very very wrong, but he seems sincere. He wasn't knowingly peddling bullshiat, he honestly thought that he was right. Once it turned out not to be so, he admitted that he was wrong and seems to care about correcting his understanding of the polls and getting it right going forward.

I have way more respect for that than a Dick Morris or a Peggy Noonan or a Karl Rove, who have shown no shame or contrition or any sign that they'll do anything but continue to lie and propagandize going forward.
 
2012-11-11 11:42:17 AM
A couple of my right-leaning friends are still having teenage girl-level hissy fits over the election. They're looking at the overall popular vote map and wondering how Obama could possibly win "with that sea of red" in the middle of the country. I don't have the heart to explain it and I'd rather not lose a friend over the election.
 
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