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(Townhall)   When the country looks like California demographically, it will look like California politically. Republicans are not whistling past the graveyard. They are right at the entrance   (townhall.com) divider line 67
    More: Obvious, GOP, California, Bush I, Strom Thurmond, William Howard Taft, People's Republic of China, Prescott Bush, WTO  
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1708 clicks; posted to Politics » on 09 Nov 2012 at 10:28 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-09 11:54:46 AM

fickenchucker: Much/all of the social changes people push for always happens, so to me those points are kind of moot. Dems are relentless, and Cons can only hold back water for so long until their levees break away.

Fiscally, what are we supposed to do? What part of Prop 30 addresses spending in California? You can only raise taxes so far--how much are we going to shrink deficit spending? Even allowing that tax increases are inevitable, increases alone won't fix the national debt and future deficits.


It doesn't, but that's not really relevant. We've been cutting spending everywhere since Brown took office, so it's already happening. We don't need to vote in spending cuts. That's where Schwarzenegger made his mistake; he tried to get Californian's approval first, and everyone biatched about spending cuts and voted no. I remember that ballot (it was a special ballot that occurred outside of the usual voting cycle); we voted no on every single thing on the ballot. It was pathetic to watch as every special interest group decried the gov't for doing what was necessary.

Then Brown came in and did the exact same thing that Schwarzenegger wanted to do, but he didn't bother to get approval first. He just did it. So the spending cuts are already happening. That was part 1. Part 2 was to get revenue up, and that's what we just voted in (partially, we voted no on the other tax increase initiative)
 
2012-11-09 11:56:21 AM

CygnusDarius: Where are the Fark Independents? Seriously, it's been, what, two days?.


What, people here call me that all the time!
 
2012-11-09 11:57:11 AM
Oops. Forgot about 39. We voted yes on two tax increases, and no on one of them.
 
2012-11-09 12:04:01 PM

Geotpf: mksmith: When the rest of the country looks like California, places like South Carolina will have become the white version of Bangladesh. I encourage all those hyper-white states to secede and regress to the 18th century, and allow the rest of us to get on with things.

Interestingly, if you take the data from the election, Obama did better in the South than he did in the Midwest-because the South is less white than the Midwest.

Here are the states that Obama lost by the least (in order of closest vote totals to farther): North Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana, South Carolina, Arizona, Mississippi. Many of these states have a large black population and a small but growing Hispanic population.

Here are the states that Obama lost by the most (in order of farest vote total to closest): Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, West Virginia, Arkansas, Nebraska, Kentucky.


I think you meant "fairest vote" not "farest vote". Fair people mostly voted for Romney.
 
2012-11-09 12:11:11 PM

Vectron: The repeal of Proposition 13 won't solve these problems. What it will do is drive many or the remaining whites to other climes,


Proposition 13 shouldn't be repealed in total-it needs to be reformed.

What Proposition 13 does is limit property taxes to 1% of the value of the property a year, and limit the growth of the assessed value to 2% a year until the property is sold. The apparent point is to prevent grandma from having to move because the house she bought for $100k 20 years ago is now worth $2.3 million so she can't afford the taxes on it.

HOWEVER, the following are problems with the proposition:

1. There's no income or net worth (outside the property in question) limit. If a billionaire has lived in the same mansion in Beverly Hills for thirty years, he pays less in taxes than somebody who just bought a tiny tract house in Anaheim.
2. It applies to commercial properties. Shopping malls, office buildings, whatever-the 2% growth limit still applies.

Also, it was the proposition that required a two thirds majority of the legislature to pass a tax increase, which is what triggered lots of creative accounting and borrowing to pass a budget. However, the Democrats now just got two thirds of both houses of the legislature (for the first time) so this hurdle should no longer be much of a problem.
 
2012-11-09 12:12:54 PM

mrshowrules: Geotpf: mksmith: When the rest of the country looks like California, places like South Carolina will have become the white version of Bangladesh. I encourage all those hyper-white states to secede and regress to the 18th century, and allow the rest of us to get on with things.

Interestingly, if you take the data from the election, Obama did better in the South than he did in the Midwest-because the South is less white than the Midwest.

Here are the states that Obama lost by the least (in order of closest vote totals to farther): North Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana, South Carolina, Arizona, Mississippi. Many of these states have a large black population and a small but growing Hispanic population.

Here are the states that Obama lost by the most (in order of farest vote total to closest): Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, West Virginia, Arkansas, Nebraska, Kentucky.

I think you meant "fairest vote" not "farest vote". Fair people mostly voted for Romney.


I meant farthest.
 
2012-11-09 12:15:36 PM
When the country looks like California politically, will it look like it financially as well?
 
2012-11-09 12:18:05 PM

fickenchucker: Much/all of the social changes people push for always happens, so to me those points are kind of moot. Dems are relentless, and Cons can only hold back water for so long until their levees break away.

Fiscally, what are we supposed to do? What part of Prop 30 addresses spending in California? You can only raise taxes so far--how much are we going to shrink deficit spending? Even allowing that tax increases are inevitable, increases alone won't fix the national debt and future deficits.


Property taxes in California are lower than typical, due to prop 13, especially for people who have lived in the same house for a long time. Car registration fees in California are lower than typical, due to Arnie cutting them. Overall, taxes in California aren't that high.
 
2012-11-09 12:22:50 PM

mrshowrules: nekom: Meh. I thought the Democratic party was in similar dire straits in 2004 and they recovered quite nicely. The GOP isn't going to go away, they are just going to have to come to terms with reality and change some things.

The GOP is finished either ideologically (if they do change) or politically (if they don't).

Here's why:

1) the GOP has no leadership or even a center anymore (other than Fox and Rush that is)
2) they are at least 4 years behind the DNC on how to run a modern election
3) there base is shrinking and the DNC base is growing (rapidly)
4) the lost two cohorts of the youth vote which to large extent will become lifelong Liberal voters now.

They are really farked. Latching the bad economy on Obama was their last Hail Mary pass and they knew it. If the economy takes off now, they are screwed. If they appear obstructionist now and the economy stagnates they are stills screwed because Obama isn't running again.


Not to mention that they don't have both Houses so a phony impeachment isn't in the cards, and a lot of their voters are angry towards Republican leadership as well. McConnell and the Fox punditry are screaming at a wall at this point, and it's easy to see from their behavior that the anger and racism holding onto the GOP is not going to be let go of lightly. That said, no purge of the bigots is possible because the Republicans still have to cater to their bitter white base through racial baiting that is impossible to softsoap. And now they've turned that to women.

This will not end well for the Republicans. At this point, we should just start taking bets on how hard they screw the pooch in 2013.
 
2012-11-09 12:25:20 PM

Guntram Shatterhand: mrshowrules: nekom: Meh. I thought the Democratic party was in similar dire straits in 2004 and they recovered quite nicely. The GOP isn't going to go away, they are just going to have to come to terms with reality and change some things.

The GOP is finished either ideologically (if they do change) or politically (if they don't).

Here's why:

1) the GOP has no leadership or even a center anymore (other than Fox and Rush that is)
2) they are at least 4 years behind the DNC on how to run a modern election
3) there base is shrinking and the DNC base is growing (rapidly)
4) the lost two cohorts of the youth vote which to large extent will become lifelong Liberal voters now.

They are really farked. Latching the bad economy on Obama was their last Hail Mary pass and they knew it. If the economy takes off now, they are screwed. If they appear obstructionist now and the economy stagnates they are stills screwed because Obama isn't running again.

Not to mention that they don't have both Houses so a phony impeachment isn't in the cards, and a lot of their voters are angry towards Republican leadership as well. McConnell and the Fox punditry are screaming at a wall at this point, and it's easy to see from their behavior that the anger and racism holding onto the GOP is not going to be let go of lightly. That said, no purge of the bigots is possible because the Republicans still have to cater to their bitter white base through racial baiting that is impossible to softsoap. And now they've turned that to women.

This will not end well for the Republicans. At this point, we should just start taking bets on how hard they screw the pooch in 2013.


One problem is that turnout in midterm elections is lower than in presidential years, and that lower turnout almost always favors the Republicans. I would not be surprised if the Republicans make gains in Congress in 2014 no matter what happens.
 
2012-11-09 12:26:30 PM
Wait you mean trying to appeal to a narrow demographic of wealthy old white christian males isn't a winning strategy anymore?
 
2012-11-09 12:48:56 PM

Guntram Shatterhand: mrshowrules: nekom: Meh. I thought the Democratic party was in similar dire straits in 2004 and they recovered quite nicely. The GOP isn't going to go away, they are just going to have to come to terms with reality and change some things.

The GOP is finished either ideologically (if they do change) or politically (if they don't).

Here's why:

1) the GOP has no leadership or even a center anymore (other than Fox and Rush that is)
2) they are at least 4 years behind the DNC on how to run a modern election
3) there base is shrinking and the DNC base is growing (rapidly)
4) the lost two cohorts of the youth vote which to large extent will become lifelong Liberal voters now.

They are really farked. Latching the bad economy on Obama was their last Hail Mary pass and they knew it. If the economy takes off now, they are screwed. If they appear obstructionist now and the economy stagnates they are stills screwed because Obama isn't running again.

Not to mention that they don't have both Houses so a phony impeachment isn't in the cards, and a lot of their voters are angry towards Republican leadership as well. McConnell and the Fox punditry are screaming at a wall at this point, and it's easy to see from their behavior that the anger and racism holding onto the GOP is not going to be let go of lightly. That said, no purge of the bigots is possible because the Republicans still have to cater to their bitter white base through racial baiting that is impossible to softsoap. And now they've turned that to women.

This will not end well for the Republicans. At this point, we should just start taking bets on how hard they screw the pooch in 2013.


The only thing the could impeach Obama on is not closing Gitmo and they are not going to go there.
 
2012-11-09 01:02:45 PM

obeymatt: They still don't get it.


This should have been the headline article. They actually do sort of, almost, get it, underneath the racism and calls for tokenism: As the Republican Party has moved rightward over the past few decades, the Democratic Party has done the same, to the point that there isn't really an ideological space to the right of the Democratic Party that has much in the way of broad national appeal. So, they're faced with the prospect of either saying, "Vote for us, we support all the things the other guys do," (which we saw a taste of with Romney's floundering while trying to talk about what he would replace Obamacare with, and during the foreign policy debate), or carving out a space for themselves to the left of the Democratic Party.

That they seem to be reacting to the unfavorable, to them, demographic changes with calls for tokenism isn't really surprising, though I don't see it working for them. They miss the point that President Obama wasn't elected because he is black, he just happens to be so. They're not going to get hispanics to vote for Marco Rubio just because he's hispanic, or get them to vote for Republicans who grudgingly try to advance an immigration policy they think will get hispanic votes, and it reeks of desperation anyway.

I think there is a fundamental point that both articles miss, which is that an important thing holding Republicans back with various demographics is how those various groups might be inclined to perceive the Republicans' treatment of another perceived 'out-group'. I'm not talking about their propensity for veiled racism, here, though that doesn't help matters; I'm referring to the 'liberal-bashing industry', and the 24/7/365 merciless vitriol that spews from it. A member of a minority group is more likely to have had a negative experience with the same sort of vitriol at some point in their life than a white male is, and it's not a stretch to see how this experience could color their perceptions of the modern Republican Party.

If Republicans want to make inroads with hispanics, or women, or anyone beyond white males over 55, really, they're going to have to actually convince these groups that they are worth voting for, which means they're going to have to establish a track record of supporting issues of importance to these groups. They'll have to push for the right legislation (and push for it themselves, not just grudgingly vote for a Democratic-sponsored bill), not just pander on the campaign trail, which is all they seem inclined to do so far. They still control the House, they could do it. They're going to have to rein in Rush, the talking heads on Fox, and the right-wing blogosphere. That one is going to be more difficult. Lastly, and maybe most importantly, they're going to have to lose the authoritarianism, as authoritarianism, by definition, isn't going to have broad appeal with groups who have not historically been on top of the heap. Basically, conservatism as envisioned by the modern Republican Party is precisely what is holding them back, because it's based on liberal bashing and authoritarianism. They're, so far, trying to filter their response to this week's election through the lens of modern conservatism, so I don't know how successful they're going to be. And, even if, through some miracle, they decide to abandon their benighted ideology, the Tea Party is evidence that it might not be willing to abandon them. They've realized that they can't win a national election with just older white males, but they haven't yet remembered that they may not be able to win without them, either. I mean, how do you convince both hispanics, and the guys who want to deport them all, to vote for the same candidate.
 
2012-11-09 01:38:22 PM
Hey I know, lets create a fake grass roots movement. A sort of "Astroturf" if you will. We'll fund it through some dummy corporations and get some lesser know publicity guys to start it off. My wife's cousin knows a guy. Then we'll get some of those radical religious nuts to protest, they always say we're ignoring them. This will get 'em off our backs. Then we get them all stirred up and they'll harass the opposition!

They wont know what hit them!

Besides what have we got to lose?
 
2012-11-09 02:23:17 PM

mrshowrules: Guntram Shatterhand: mrshowrules: nekom: Meh. I thought the Democratic party was in similar dire straits in 2004 and they recovered quite nicely. The GOP isn't going to go away, they are just going to have to come to terms with reality and change some things.

The GOP is finished either ideologically (if they do change) or politically (if they don't).

Here's why:

1) the GOP has no leadership or even a center anymore (other than Fox and Rush that is)
2) they are at least 4 years behind the DNC on how to run a modern election
3) there base is shrinking and the DNC base is growing (rapidly)
4) the lost two cohorts of the youth vote which to large extent will become lifelong Liberal voters now.

They are really farked. Latching the bad economy on Obama was their last Hail Mary pass and they knew it. If the economy takes off now, they are screwed. If they appear obstructionist now and the economy stagnates they are stills screwed because Obama isn't running again.

Not to mention that they don't have both Houses so a phony impeachment isn't in the cards, and a lot of their voters are angry towards Republican leadership as well. McConnell and the Fox punditry are screaming at a wall at this point, and it's easy to see from their behavior that the anger and racism holding onto the GOP is not going to be let go of lightly. That said, no purge of the bigots is possible because the Republicans still have to cater to their bitter white base through racial baiting that is impossible to softsoap. And now they've turned that to women.

This will not end well for the Republicans. At this point, we should just start taking bets on how hard they screw the pooch in 2013.

The only thing the could impeach Obama on is not closing Gitmo and they are not going to go there.


They can impeach Obama over whatever they feel like. It's a political trial, not a legal one.

As for Gitmo, Congress has blocked Obama from closing it in the first place.
 
2012-11-09 02:47:30 PM

Geotpf: They can impeach Obama over whatever they feel like. It's a political trial, not a legal one.

True.

As for Gitmo, Congress has blocked Obama from closing it in the first place.


No they didn't. They blocked him bringing the detainees to the mainland for trials. He could close it tomorrow with a phone call.
 
2012-11-11 05:23:25 AM

Renart: Anybody who thinks California is the nightmare future while Mississippi or some other GOP-dominated shiathole is being run the right way is not worth listening to.

And anyway, most of California's fiscal problems can be traced to Proposition 13, which Republicans LOVE.


^^^^^^^^^^^^^
THIS.


I've been here for 25 years, and out of all the propositions I've seen come down the pipe that one has to be the worst piece of crap ever. When was it ever a bright idea to let people pay property tax rates that are 20 years behind everyone elses just because they bought their house in 1990 while someone else who bought last week just across the street gets most thoroughly boned? Now you have these same morans complaining that "Sacramento" (usually said like a curse word) have too much control over the little kingdoms they call school districts, when it was they who gave that control to the state capital through proposition 13.

Consider school district A. They used to get the majority of their operating funds, including teacher's salaries and books, through the property taxes from the district they serve. There was only minor help from the general fund, and as expenses and housing values changed so did those property taxes. Then prop 13 was sh*t out by the republicans (under the guise of "throwing grandma out of her house") and eaten with relish by voters, so more tax money had to come from the general fund because local property taxes couldn't adjust with the costs of running the district's schools. As more came from the GF, those who handled that money got more say in how it was used.

BTW, prop 13 covers businesses and corporations as well, who simply use legal tricks to transfer ownership of buildings and property instead out outright selling them, which prevents the full weight of the new property tax levels (readjusted when a property is sold) from coming down on them. You could conceivably have the owner of a 100,000 square foot warehouse last purchased in 1995 paying the same in yearly property tax as a 3 bedroom 2100 square foot house bought last month within a mile of each other.

If I were to rewrite any of california's laws, proposition 13 would be number one on my list.
 
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