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(The New York Times)   Drunk Nate Silver is already predicting GOP losses for 2016 and 2020. Even when he's drunk, there's still math involved   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 106
    More: Amusing, GOP  
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5380 clicks; posted to Politics » on 09 Nov 2012 at 1:14 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-09 07:39:10 AM  
Somebody needs to unplug him before he overheats.
 
2012-11-09 07:47:53 AM  
unless there's a shift in tone, not necessarily message, he's probably right.
 
2012-11-09 08:41:32 AM  

Smashed Hat: Somebody needs to unplug him before he overheats.


Seriously. Dude, it's over. You were right. Chill out a bit until next time, relax a bit.
 
2012-11-09 08:57:38 AM  
Isn't it a bit early to be predicting this stuff? I wonder what his reasoning is. I guess I should read the article.
 
2012-11-09 09:35:17 AM  

Cythraul: Isn't it a bit early to be predicting this stuff? I wonder what his reasoning is. I guess I should read the article.


Basically, unless the demographics change considerably, the republican candidate will always be the underdog, simply because of how the electoral college is moving.

He's making some assumptions, but I think he's right - the GOP can't afford to keep banking on the southern states and 1-2 swing states. They're going to need to pull in people that aren't white males.
 
2012-11-09 10:51:53 AM  
respect. i can't even figure out how to split a bar tab when i'm drunk.
 
2012-11-09 10:53:19 AM  
a lot of things can happen between now and 2016.
 
2012-11-09 10:56:04 AM  
It's a little early to call that...though if the GOP continues to think they need to move more right socially, he'll be right.
 
2012-11-09 10:58:45 AM  

nekom: Smashed Hat: Somebody needs to unplug him before he overheats.

Seriously. Dude, it's over. You were right. Chill out a bit until next time, relax a bit.


He's decompressing. You can't go from full on to stop overnight. Got to ease off gradually.

There's also a distinct possibility he likes his job. After all it was created by him, using knowledge he came up with, surrounded by people who are good at what he likes being good at, for a company with deep pockets that supports everything (probably) he puts out there.

Not bad for a guy that started out tracking baseball stats.
 
2012-11-09 11:11:38 AM  

Generation_D: Not bad for a guy that started out tracking baseball stats.


Not bad at all, he's carved himself out a nice little niche. But for the next 3 years, he really ought to try his hand at something else. Maybe mathing the Voynich manuscript to figure that thing out or something.
 
2012-11-09 11:27:48 AM  
The largest two reactions I've seen from Republicans seem to be either 1.) thanks for being too stupid to win our votes, America or 2.) Well, this is the start of one party rule.

Noticeably absent is any type of desire to appeal to more people.
 
2012-11-09 11:47:23 AM  

BSABSVR: The largest two reactions I've seen from Republicans seem to be either 1.) thanks for being too stupid to win our votes, America or 2.) Well, this is the start of one party rule.

Noticeably absent is any type of desire to appeal to more people.


They can't stand the people that they'd need to appeal to, so they're kind of stuck.
 
2012-11-09 12:02:50 PM  
I betcha a bazillion dollars the next Republican candidate will be a minority of some sort.
 
2012-11-09 12:05:31 PM  

Lollipop165: I betcha a bazillion dollars the next Republican candidate will be a minority of some sort.


Lindsey Graham is a closeted gay. Does that count?
 
2012-11-09 12:07:38 PM  

nekom: Generation_D: Not bad for a guy that started out tracking baseball stats.

Not bad at all, he's carved himself out a nice little niche. But for the next 3 years, he really ought to try his hand at something else. Maybe mathing the Voynich manuscript to figure that thing out or something.


Voynich manuscript is just a Monster Manual for 17th century AD&D players.
 
2012-11-09 12:53:18 PM  
In the short term, the Teabagger GOP will continue to win-out over the party moderates who want to move to the center. They will attempt to hold onto relevancy through gerrymandering and through hollow attempts at reaching-out to minority groups, a la "I love brown people! They mow lawns real good! Now vote for Cleetus, Miguel!"
 
2012-11-09 01:17:50 PM  
The really scary bit for Republicans should be that in 2016, according to that data, Georgia will be the 50/50 swing state that Florida currently is
 
2012-11-09 01:18:05 PM  
Psst - Nate - finals are over. Take your summer break and get rested up for next semester, k?

That said, drunk math is fun.

/this is a magic 7
 
2012-11-09 01:19:00 PM  

nekom: Generation_D: Not bad for a guy that started out tracking baseball stats.

Not bad at all, he's carved himself out a nice little niche. But for the next 3 years, he really ought to try his hand at something else. Maybe mathing the Voynich manuscript to figure that thing out or something.


The math says its a hoax.
 
2012-11-09 01:19:55 PM  
Also, obligatory

onlinejournalismblog.com
 
2012-11-09 01:20:22 PM  

shower_in_my_socks: In the short term, the Teabagger GOP will continue to win-out over the party moderates who want to move to the center. They will attempt to hold onto relevancy through gerrymandering and through hollow attempts at reaching-out to minority groups, a la "I love brown people! They mow lawns real good! Now vote for Cleetus, Miguel!"


Tea Partiers turning off the rest of the country = death in the long term

Splitting from the Tea Partiers and creating a center-right major party = death in the long term too, since the Democratic Party already has that spot.

Hmm, what to do, what to do?
 
2012-11-09 01:22:23 PM  

Generation_D: nekom: Smashed Hat: Somebody needs to unplug him before he overheats.

Seriously. Dude, it's over. You were right. Chill out a bit until next time, relax a bit.

He's decompressing. You can't go from full on to stop overnight. Got to ease off gradually.

There's also a distinct possibility he likes his job. After all it was created by him, using knowledge he came up with, surrounded by people who are good at what he likes being good at, for a company with deep pockets that supports everything (probably) he puts out there.

Not bad for a guy that started out tracking baseball stats.


And he has to justify even having a job right now.
 
2012-11-09 01:23:20 PM  
I wouldn't be surprised, seeing that demographics continue shifting. His numbers and the book below really explain what is going on: as long as the Deep South holds the GOP by the balls, they will become a minority party. I highly recommend this book to anyone who wants to understand why the nation is divided - has always been and will always be. We are a union of several cultural groups, not states.

cumberlandmaine.com
 
2012-11-09 01:23:44 PM  
I really believe that in 2016 there is no chance for a presidential candidate who is not pro choice and who does not support gay marriage. It's possible the tide on those issues will turn, but I seriously doubt it
 
2012-11-09 01:23:50 PM  

Smelly McUgly: shower_in_my_socks: In the short term, the Teabagger GOP will continue to win-out over the party moderates who want to move to the center. They will attempt to hold onto relevancy through gerrymandering and through hollow attempts at reaching-out to minority groups, a la "I love brown people! They mow lawns real good! Now vote for Cleetus, Miguel!"

Tea Partiers turning off the rest of the country = death in the long term

Splitting from the Tea Partiers and creating a center-right major party = death in the long term too, since the Democratic Party already has that spot.

Hmm, what to do, what to do?


Die. The Republican Party needs to die.

There's nothing left but a shell, and even that is being hollowed out by the remains of the Teabaggers who simply will never give up their racism. And they do not have a place at the table of a civilized America, much less in positions of power.
 
2012-11-09 01:24:31 PM  
it appeared that Ohio was the state most likely to win Mr. Obama his 270th electoral vote. Instead, it was Colorado that provided him with his win - the same state that did so in 2008.

High-five to all my fellow CO Farkers.
 
2012-11-09 01:24:55 PM  
My guess would be that unless someone crawls out from the woodwork shortly, I would put major money on Marco Rubio being the 2016 GOP nominee.
 
2012-11-09 01:25:28 PM  

BSABSVR: The largest two reactions I've seen from Republicans seem to be either 1.) thanks for being too stupid to win our votes, America or 2.) Well, this is the start of one party rule.

Noticeably absent is any type of desire to appeal to more people.


Appealing to other people would mean modifying the message to appeal to them but everyone knows that conservative values are absolutely true and perfect. They cannot be changed or whole universes of conservative action come crashing down. So it's just a matter of trying to sell the same ideas in a different way instead of changing anything ever.
 
2012-11-09 01:25:35 PM  

SlothB77: a lot of things can happen between now and 2016.


There are many things the Republicans could do to improve their odds.

Unfortunately it appears they are unwilling to do them and will instead double down on the "go farther right" derp.
 
2012-11-09 01:25:53 PM  
The optimist in me hopes the GOP completely becomes viewed as too extreme in mainstream society, and ends up packing it in.
 
2012-11-09 01:26:06 PM  

Lollipop165: I betcha a bazillion dollars the next Republican candidate will be a minority of some sort.


This candidate will have to survive all the closed primaries in back-ass racism-infested states. I doubt that'll happen.
 
2012-11-09 01:27:04 PM  

Lost Thought 00: The really scary bit for Republicans should be that in 2016, according to that data, Georgia will be the 50/50 swing state that Florida currently is


Obama lost GA by 8 points and the campaign barely had a presence. If they'd contested it, Romney would've barely won the state.
 
2012-11-09 01:27:15 PM  
Let's not forget the Dems' ability to nominate terrible candidates. I haven't had a governor candidate i could stand voting for in years.
 
2012-11-09 01:27:39 PM  

SlothB77: a lot of things can happen between now and 2016.


Taliban might take over America and declare a World Islamic State.
 
2012-11-09 01:29:12 PM  

Nadie_AZ: I wouldn't be surprised, seeing that demographics continue shifting. His numbers and the book below really explain what is going on: as long as the Deep South holds the GOP by the balls, they will become a minority party. I highly recommend this book to anyone who wants to understand why the nation is divided - has always been and will always be. We are a union of several cultural groups, not states.

[cumberlandmaine.com image 397x600]


So, uh, I guess the tip of Florida is without culture or heritage
 
2012-11-09 01:29:41 PM  
FTFA: In fact, had Mr. Romney won the popular vote by two percentage points, Mr. Obama would still have won the Electoral College, losing Virginia but holding onto Colorado.

Wow. Obama had a 5-point firewall at 272 EVs. Things really do look bleak for Republicans if they don't retool and rebrand.
 
2012-11-09 01:31:59 PM  

Lost Thought 00: The really scary bit for Republicans should be that in 2016, according to that data, Georgia will be the 50/50 swing state that Florida currently is


Texas is purpleing too. Are any blue states trending red? Even if no states totally switch sides, 4 new swing states all carved out of the Republican Party's hide puts them majorly on the defensive. If they have to spend millions just to shore up the south and get to where they start today, how will they compete?
 
2012-11-09 01:33:00 PM  
So basically the GOP continues to lose voters by marginalizing the moderates in their own party and since many of the people voting for them can expect to be dead within the next 20 years, meaning of course that many will die within the next 4 to 8 years as well, unless they change their message and attempt to appeal to minorities they are farked.

Personally I believe the possibility of the Republicans moving to the left even slightly and doing anything beyond a mild reach out to the Latino community is almost nothing. I would not be surprised in fact if within the next 4 years some republican politician who should know better states several controversial statements regarding the increasing Latino population, especially if Obama makes and issue out of immigration reform.
 
2012-11-09 01:33:21 PM  

Cythraul: Isn't it a bit early to be predicting this stuff? I wonder what his reasoning is. I guess I should read the article.


Not really, the GOP is predicting/admitting this stuff as well. It's about shifting demographics. Minorities are a growing percentage of the country, while the GOP runs an anti-minority platform. For specifics, think of Arizona. Considering the growing hispanic population there, how long is Arizona going to remain a GOP derpfest?

By the way, Republicans, I still want to get rid of the electoral college. That it might be advantageous to me to keep it is irrelevant, I'm against it.
 
2012-11-09 01:34:07 PM  

Holocaust Agnostic: Texas is purpleing too. Are any blue states trending red


Indiana has gotten significantly redder. Same with WV. Not states you really want to bank on in the EC, though
 
2012-11-09 01:34:47 PM  

Holocaust Agnostic: Are any blue states trending red?


I really want to suggest using Scott Walker versus previous governors as my example that Wisconsin is, but the recent election says otherwise. I really have no farking clue what's going on in Wisconsin anymore.
 
2012-11-09 01:35:48 PM  

The All-Powerful Atheismo: Generation_D: nekom: Smashed Hat: Somebody needs to unplug him before he overheats.

Seriously. Dude, it's over. You were right. Chill out a bit until next time, relax a bit.

He's decompressing. You can't go from full on to stop overnight. Got to ease off gradually.

There's also a distinct possibility he likes his job. After all it was created by him, using knowledge he came up with, surrounded by people who are good at what he likes being good at, for a company with deep pockets that supports everything (probably) he puts out there.

Not bad for a guy that started out tracking baseball stats.

And he has to justify even having a job right now.


51-51 this year, and 50-51 in 2008, plus his record down ticket, and he has to justify himself?

The only thing Nate Silver would have to justify would be teabagging the news desk at FNC, and it wouldn't be that hard
 
2012-11-09 01:35:59 PM  
Not for nothing, but Obama just put on his big boy shorts and stepped up to the Bully Pulpit concerning the Fiscal Cliff. Republicans, prepare to get your asses handed to you for the next 4 years at the very least.
 
2012-11-09 01:36:48 PM  

lennavan: Holocaust Agnostic: Are any blue states trending red?

I really want to suggest using Scott Walker versus previous governors as my example that Wisconsin is, but the recent election says otherwise. I really have no farking clue what's going on in Wisconsin anymore.


Exit polling in the recall said that keeping him in office was about voting AGAINST recalls without criminal charges attached
 
2012-11-09 01:37:11 PM  

lennavan: Holocaust Agnostic: Are any blue states trending red?

I really want to suggest using Scott Walker versus previous governors as my example that Wisconsin is, but the recent election says otherwise. I really have no farking clue what's going on in Wisconsin anymore.


Scott Walker was elected in 2010, right?

I think the answer is that for whatever reason, The Good Guys just can't, don't, or won't GOTV effectively for mid-term elections.
 
2012-11-09 01:37:41 PM  

Johnny Swank: Not for nothing, but Obama just put on his big boy shorts and stepped up to the Bully Pulpit concerning the Fiscal Cliff. Republicans, prepare to get your asses handed to you for the next 4 years at the very least.


Care to summarize what he said? I wasn't able to watch at work and haven't seen any news articles about it yet...
 
2012-11-09 01:38:47 PM  

Lollipop165: I betcha a bazillion dollars the next Republican candidate will be a minority of some sort.


You just touched Condi Rice's 'Hot Spot'.

Bonus: Californian
 
2012-11-09 01:39:27 PM  

Klivian: lennavan: Holocaust Agnostic: Are any blue states trending red?

I really want to suggest using Scott Walker versus previous governors as my example that Wisconsin is, but the recent election says otherwise. I really have no farking clue what's going on in Wisconsin anymore.

Exit polling in the recall said that keeping him in office was about voting AGAINST recalls without criminal charges attached


A dumb thing to be against, but plausible I suppose.
 
2012-11-09 01:40:25 PM  
If he is correct, this is really EXCELLENT news! First, because is agrees with our own models, second because it means a further cultural/social/political disenfranchisement of the targeted minority.

Good times are ahead!
 
2012-11-09 01:41:17 PM  

Copperbelly watersnake: Let's not forget the Dems' ability to nominate terrible candidates. I haven't had a governor candidate i could stand voting for in years.


Such a condition is easily remedied by a greater focus upon social issues. Embracing smart-sex marriage and women's has allowed gains in niche but important demographics. Perhaps more vocally championing gun control will also help.
 
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