Dr Dreidel: Is it that the simulation is actually done with replacement, and I'm thinking without?I see it as a new puzzle the second time - 1 or 2? Or: 1, 2, 3, 4...999,997 or 999,998?I dunno, it's not like the second box changed, either - you just know the one he took away wasn't it.// or was it?// was he just farking with us the whole time?!?// I always knew Monty Hall was a bastard// I've been refreshing like a maniac - this is killing me// I'm like: but really, which one of us is the moran? Is it really me, again?// HAS THE WHOLE WORLD GONE CRAZY?!? AM I THE ONLY ONE WHO GIVES A SHIAT ABOUT THE PROBABILITIES?!?!?!?// slashy record
kidgenius: Tyrone Slothrop:Here's an alternate of that:You have two boxes. One contains $1mYou choose a boxI put a 3rd, open empty box, next to the other two.I offer you a choice - keep your box or take the remaining (closed) boxDo you make a different choice than in the 1st situation? Why?It won't matter. it's 50/50 to switch. I could make either choice and I have an equal chance of being right/wrong.
Donnchadha: I'll take the box!
Ambitwistor: DamnYankees: This guy is making the mistake of thinking the state-by-state probabilities were independent and not covariant,His comments on that:"Some of the bright people here at the American Center for Physics have suggested that I'm overlooking the possibility that individual states' elections can affect each other or may be mutually affected by some outside influence in a way to make them move together. That might be true, but it implies that Silver should sometimes call the entire race perfectly (as he seems to have done again this year) and at other times miss on almost every battleground state, but he would be unlikely to miss by a little. If this is the case, any one state's supposed "Chances of winning" seem to me to be meaningless, and Silver should only be able to predict how blocks of states move together. That would make his model a pretty blunt instrument, despite the fact that most of his fans act like it's the equivalent of a statistical scalpel. In fact, Silver points out in the description of his methodology that such interactions among states are accounted for in the model, which means they're included in the calculations that produce the model's output, including the chances of winning he posted for each race. So this is a pretty plausible explanation, although I don't see how I could check it easily."
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