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(Politico)   "Hey Boehner, are you pondering what I'm pondering?" "I think so, Mitch, but if we lost all these seats, should we still try and push unpopular measures?" "No you dunce, we're gonna TRY TO TAKE OVER THE CONGRESS"   (politico.com) divider line 65
    More: Interesting, Eric Bolling, young voters, Old Dominion, big tent, electoral colleges, swing states, RNC, voter ID  
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4655 clicks; posted to Politics » on 08 Nov 2012 at 2:36 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-08 03:29:42 PM  

qorkfiend: If the GOP doesn't moderate their stance on immigration by 2020 their dwindling share of the popular vote will be the least of their worries. The possibility of places like Texas or Arizona being anything less than a solid red state in the next ten years should scare them shiatless.


Texas especially. That's a mountain of EVs.
 
2012-11-08 03:29:52 PM  
Well colour me surprised.....

//jk
 
2012-11-08 03:31:20 PM  
The idea that they're so convinced that Marco Rubio could save them just illustrates the undercurrent of racism in the party.

"Well shiat, the Dems got themselves a black and people must think that makes them cool. I can't see any other reason people are votin' for him, so it must be because of his race."
"I know! Let's get that there Mesican fella, Rubio! If we put him out front it'll surely get us some support from the other groups. It worked with Cain and Jindal! Them silly minorities can't help but vote for someone with the same colored skin!"
 
2012-11-08 03:39:21 PM  
"Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's name came up repeatedly."

Yes, you know what would work better when we talk about policies that hurt or have an impression of slighting Latinos...let's have a Latino guy talk about policies that hurt or have an impression of slighting Latinos. Because, let's face it, there's no way that those issues themselves are the problem.
 
2012-11-08 03:46:22 PM  

snowshovel: "Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's name came up repeatedly."

Yes, you know what would work better when we talk about policies that hurt or have an impression of slighting Latinos...let's have a Latino guy talk about policies that hurt or have an impression of slighting Latinos. Because, let's face it, there's no way that those issues themselves are the problem.


What gets me is that the rabid racist stuff was 3 years ago and the repubs lost the hispanic vote massively but the rape rape talk was months ago and the status quo on women stayed mainly the same.
 
2012-11-08 03:50:33 PM  

BKITU: qorkfiend: If the GOP doesn't moderate their stance on immigration by 2020 their dwindling share of the popular vote will be the least of their worries. The possibility of places like Texas or Arizona being anything less than a solid red state in the next ten years should scare them shiatless.

Texas especially. That's a mountain of EVs.


Some people said yesterday that the GOP won't change track until the Democrats crush them with 400+ EVs. If they lose Texas and Arizona that is a real possibility.
 
2012-11-08 04:10:53 PM  
The GOP has some choices.

1) Give up the expectation of winning elections at the national level.
2) Grow the sizes of the demographic groups that currently support them.
3) Increase turnout of those supporters (without pissing off current supporters enough to turn them to
non-supporters in larger numbers than the marginal turnout gain
).
4) Persuade more people in growing demographic groups to agree to support GOP candidates, by...
4.1) Rational appeals to accept the current GOP policy positions
4.2) Irrational appeals...
4.2.1) to accept the current GOP policy positions (again, without pissing off current supporters enough to turn them to non-supporters in larger numbers than the marginal turnout gain).
4.2.2) based on running more "token" candidates from the growing minorities (once more, without pissing off current supporters enough to turn them to non-supporters in larger numbers than the marginal turnout gain).
5) Shrink the number of active voters in demographic groups that oppose them by...
5.1) Suppressing the fraction voting
5.2) Reduce the population of those demographic groups
6) Change some of the policy positions to appeal to more people, particularly in growing demographic groups.

#1 is implausible.

#2 won't help any time soon as well as being really difficult. #3 is difficult, but there might be some tactics they can copy from the Obama team to get the GOP a little more. The obsessively empirical mindset that drove the Obama team, however, seems likely problematic given the GOP's apparent tendency to refuse acceptance to inconvenient empirical data.

#4.1 may not even be a self-consistent option, given the current attitudes apparently in vogue in the GOP base about intellectuals. The current "leading lights" seem at best pale shadows of William Buckley or Ayn Rand, who themselves were hardly titanic luminaries relative to the wider arena of politics. #4.2.1 might have some potentials I don't see (irrational persuasion is not my forte), but it looks like they're at the limits where increased scaremongering will drive away more moderates than it rallies terrified protofascists. #4.2.2 conceivably might work, except that such tokens are already hard to find without considerable slacking on ideological purity.

5.1 is criminal, but if the courts don't respond sharply the approach has significant risk of violent backlash. 5.2 verges on genocidal. Given US history, I don't put either out of the question. A replay of 1960s civil rights violence is about the best scenario to expect if they go that route.

That leaves #6. Unfortunately, that's going to involve pissing off some of their current core base, in a big way. The best chance that I see looks to be for the Moneycon and Jingocon factions to dig in and split off from the Theocon/Xenocon Tea Party types -- which will lose them at least half their numbers, and thus possibly the GOP/Republican name. They can then aim for a more Libertarian shore, and hope to pull in those plus some of the DIY democrats. Push against any legislative effort on the the abortion and gay marriage issues (voting "abstain" or "present" or not at all, rather than "yea" or "nay"), but once anything passes or is ruled on by the courts, accept it as the new status quo to be ignored once more. Recognize excessive corporate power is potentially as toxic as excess government power. Aim for "smaller government", but figure out where society will have a safety net and how it will maintain social mobility. They'll probably need to push for a change to the voting systems (concordet, instant run-off, whatever) to allow third party viability, as a way of buying some support from the Tea Party. (The democrats may prefer the GOP self-destruct, but might be long-sighted enough to see their own potential for fission.) That might be combined by addressing the problem of redistricting, and coming up with some principle yielding a long-term stable algorithm to take that source of political shenanigans off the table as the electoral college algorithm did for that back in the 1950s or so... though finally ditching that antique might also fit in well, and be needed if they don't want to take approach #1 on the presidency.

The biggest potential obstacle would be that I'm not sure the current officeholders are sufficiently representative of the GOP's internal factions to allow such a split to be graceful. Also, I may well be deluding myself on the coherence of such a platform block.
 
2012-11-08 04:29:15 PM  

qorkfiend: If the GOP doesn't moderate their stance on immigration by 2020


They've already scewed the pooch on immigration. Obam *is* going to push immigratin reform this term. The GOP has two choices. The Reps will either be productive partners with the dems and the president and pass a ballanced bill or they'll oppose it. If the bill passes it will be a victory for Obama which should help the dems in 2016. If the GOP opposes the bill, the hispanic population (which is bound to be larger the way Mexicans make babies) will be even more pro Dem and anti-GOP.

The Reps also have the problem of keeping their bigoted Teabaggers quiet during the discussions. One thing we learned about Teabaggers from the rape discussions was they really don't know when to STFU.
 
2012-11-08 04:57:26 PM  

Muta: qorkfiend: If the GOP doesn't moderate their stance on immigration by 2020

They've already scewed the pooch on immigration. Obam *is* going to push immigratin reform this term. The GOP has two choices. The Reps will either be productive partners with the dems and the president and pass a ballanced bill or they'll oppose it. If the bill passes it will be a victory for Obama which should help the dems in 2016. If the GOP opposes the bill, the hispanic population (which is bound to be larger the way Mexicans make babies) will be even more pro Dem and anti-GOP.

The Reps also have the problem of keeping their bigoted Teabaggers quiet during the discussions. One thing we learned about Teabaggers from the rape discussions was they really don't know when to STFU.


Bipartisanship to make inroads with the minority voting blocs is the lesser of the two evils in that scenario.

The question is if enough of the Republicans in the House can realize that (including Boehner, assuming he maintains Speaker status)
 
2012-11-08 05:20:29 PM  
i204.photobucket.com
Oldie but still a goodie.
 
2012-11-08 05:32:18 PM  
Here's the Republican Problem in a nutshell: over the course of thirty years, they have stopped giving a fark about everybody, including their base of poor and afraid white people. They have crafted their message so keenly that they have dumped everything else that can appeal outside of this group. They've even handed over fiscal conservative thought back in 1993 to the Democrats, assured that any change would take over so slowly that they could see and negate it. If they even thought about it. And with the Dubya Administration, they were satisfied that they could fool their way into power time and again, allowing them to grow lazy.

And here is where they implode: they wildly overestimated their own skills, and wildly underestimated the effects of their nonsense on the voting public. The game is up for the Republicans because not only do they not have the ability to really pull away from their politics, their base will not let them. And this is ignoring the YEARS of misinformation that has been stored and dissected and mocked on the web. The Republican game is very well known and studied at this point. They really can't back out of the mess they created. Nor should they: they have proven that they are above nothing to attempt to grab power, not even rape.

The Republican soul searching comes too late. Not only did they try to pull the wool over everybody's eyes with their baffling and psychotic attacks on polling that was proven to be nothing but fantasy, they have lost all credibility. Mitch McConnell shows that the Republicans are not serious about changing. They just don't know how to deal with the loss. And right now, the only place for the Republican Party is on the scrap heap. They will not change, and there's no reason why anybody should go out of their way to save a political party that no longer has a real purpose.
 
2012-11-08 07:28:13 PM  

xanadian: The funny thing about economic policy is there's no real way of knowing it will work until you implement it. Keynsian economics have worked so far, but is there a point where it doesn't work as well as it once did?


No economic theory or plan works the same way forever. There is no such thing as a permanent solution -- everything is subject to wars, politics, demographics and population, social mobility, workforce and resources, fads, trends, confidence/paranoia, and of course human farking behavior.

So every theory needs to be continuously retooled and modified with changing conditions in demographics.

xanadian: Kind of like how the laws of physics morph a bit between the macroscopic world and the quantum world. But in economics, these "laws" are considerably more vague and nebulous. So, you have to keep re-evaluating your positions.


Economics is, ultimately, nothing but a series of numbers and formulas in an impossibly massive equation. The problem is, unlike physics proofs, we don't actually know what that equation looks like. We have general ideas of what parts of it look like and how it operates, but no one understands the complete, big picture to mathematical clarity, such that when we make small adjustments to the equation like changing interest rates or deregulating investment brackets, the results surprise us. Because they're almost nothing like what we predicted would happen. Not even supply & demand works the way it should -- you can not predict human behavior, at least not as accurate as you can the Universe.

The changes people make to the great economics algorithm are always blind, usually self-serving, and won't work the same way forever. There are men who come forth every now and then -- Keynes, Friedman, Greenspan, etc -- who propose theories and write treatises on how to manipulate the equation to make good things happen, and people put these theories to the test.....and the theories always get things partly right and partly wrong, but no theory gets it completely right.
 
2012-11-08 10:02:44 PM  

DeltaPunch: Bermuda59: Just to lighten your day, here's a complete list of all Pinkyisms
Link

Is that even legal, posting something so awesome in the politics tab?


I don't know Brain, but instant karma always gets so lumpy.
 
2012-11-08 10:28:06 PM  
I was pissed on Tuesday as I was just waiting to vote against Boehner. And then I saw there was no opposition, so I wrote in our old representative (and a Republican, no less) that was gerrymandered out of my district.
 
2012-11-09 02:40:05 AM  

Guntram Shatterhand: Here's the Republican Problem in a nutshell: over the course of thirty years, they have stopped giving a fark about everybody, including their base of poor and afraid white people. They have crafted their message so keenly that they have dumped everything else that can appeal outside of this group. They've even handed over fiscal conservative thought back in 1993 to the Democrats, assured that any change would take over so slowly that they could see and negate it. If they even thought about it. And with the Dubya Administration, they were satisfied that they could fool their way into power time and again, allowing them to grow lazy.

And here is where they implode: they wildly overestimated their own skills, and wildly underestimated the effects of their nonsense on the voting public. The game is up for the Republicans because not only do they not have the ability to really pull away from their politics, their base will not let them. And this is ignoring the YEARS of misinformation that has been stored and dissected and mocked on the web. The Republican game is very well known and studied at this point. They really can't back out of the mess they created. Nor should they: they have proven that they are above nothing to attempt to grab power, not even rape.

The Republican soul searching comes too late. Not only did they try to pull the wool over everybody's eyes with their baffling and psychotic attacks on polling that was proven to be nothing but fantasy, they have lost all credibility. Mitch McConnell shows that the Republicans are not serious about changing. They just don't know how to deal with the loss. And right now, the only place for the Republican Party is on the scrap heap. They will not change, and there's no reason why anybody should go out of their way to save a political party that no longer has a real purpose.


Pretty much.

The GOP at the moment is the party you turn to when you're scared of gays, women making decisions over their own bodies, non-existent gun grabs, and socialism. They had this election in the bag and they're still dumbfounded that they lost.

You can't cut one of these reactionary legs off the stool without the entire thing falling over. It's Frankenstein's monster and the Jewish golem come home to roost, and the party leaders have no other option but to double down on the derp and hope they scare up some more old white folks.
 
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