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(Business Insider)   UnskewedPolls site admin then: "Silver's polls are extremely biased. Plus he's thin and gay." Now: "Silver was right and I was wrong. And Rasmussen, whose polls I relied so heavily on, has some 'splaining to do"   (businessinsider.com) divider line 248
    More: Dumbass, Governor of Michigan, George W. Romney, NYSE Composite, pollsters, electoral colleges  
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7020 clicks; posted to Politics » on 07 Nov 2012 at 4:53 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-07 09:17:18 PM
randomjsa I do think its funny that people seem to put so much stock in Nate Silver because he... Predicted 49 out of 50 states in 2008.

Anyone who was reasonably paying attention to the 2008 election could have told you 45 out of 50 and they also could have told you that the last 5 didn't matter because the first 45 would decide the election. It's also been sort of funny to watch liberals on this site who have repeatedly said "Rasmussen is unreliable. He changes his results to match everyone else when it gets close to the election which is why his results are so much more accurate close to the election!"

So liberals are saying Obama is going to lose in 2012? Because if Rasmussen is correct... Obama is finished.
 
2012-11-07 09:31:34 PM

tarkus1980: Hey look everybody! randomjsa is back!


Yes! Original alts in the motherf***ing house. Just you wait until Romney wins and all you lobs fellating Nate Silver ...wait. What day is this?!?
 
2012-11-07 09:32:25 PM
You know. A big part of me is happy. I prefer Obama. But a good part of me is sad. Nearly half the country is butthurt crestfallen. These are our brothers and sisters, though we may not see eye to eye. They don't feel the sting of defeat, as one might for your team losing in a football game. They should. Romney made plenty of gaffes along the way, but in the end, he showed very strongly and acquitted himself well. He gave his concession speech in grace, and though it is cold comfort, he should know that he is now in the history books. He was a contender.

The feeling that half the country is experiencing... they are gobsmacked. The rug was pulled out from under them. Look at the incessant crowing and cackling just before the election. There weren't nerves or hand-wringing, there was breathless anticipation. The polls were leaning heavily in a seemingly close but ultimately complete Romney victory. And then the tide went WAAAAAY out. This is like when you are all set to step on the mat in junior high to wrestle, and the coach pulls scrawny Milhouse and subs in Jerry Lawlor. You have only enough time to stare in confusion and gulp before you're off your feet and struggling to draw a breath.

People are wailing and gnashing their teeth because this isn't the reality they had been living in. It's red pill versus blue pill. It's sudden and traumatic. For so many months you were right, everyone you knew was right. And now you are all wrong. Think about this. Even I am troubled, and I was on the "right side" of this election. Is this another case of right wing echo chamber becoming a force of its own with no one at the controls? The same sort of thing that led the Bush admin to really believe that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and the time to invade was NOWNOWNOWGOGOGO! ?

Last night, I wallowed in the schadenfreude. Today, I feel empathy. I see the protestations and tempers on my facebook page, and I don't take the bait. I just want to have an even and measured response to offer. I understand your pain and confusion. Maybe just maybe... it isn't the end of the world. Instead of lashing out, fix onto what you think could be problematic, and address it. Ask your congress people to meet you half way. Come to a concensus on an issue that should be addressed... your fear that jobs will dry up with imprudent fiscal policy, and demand that all lawmakers get together and ensure that doesn't happen. Then you give voice to real concerns, and direction for hopefully a real solution. But how do you tell people living in a newly-shifted paradigm. We still don't even currently speak the same language.
 
2012-11-07 09:33:51 PM
Damn it: if I weren't such a liberal, my phone wouldn't have auto corrected 'libs' to lobs!
 
2012-11-07 09:35:29 PM

randomjsa: What I take from this is a huge amount of uproarious laughter because Nate Silver is lauded and praised for his amazingly amazing prediction results...

That were the same as almost everyone else.


Some folks were around his results...most were not.
 
2012-11-07 09:35:45 PM
Admitting he's wrong and gay-homo, abortio-atheist Nate Silver is right? What's this RINO bullshiat?
 
2012-11-07 09:40:52 PM

gilgigamesh: DamnYankees: Good for him.

What choice did he have?

a) Hide under a rock and pretend he never made these stupid predictions until he is quickly forgotten

b) Insist polls are still wrong, and in fact Romney won by 200 EVs

c) Admit he farked up completely


Most people would go with A or B. It's good he did C.
 
2012-11-07 09:49:48 PM

Jackpot777: tarkus1980: Hey look everybody! randomjsa is back!

Yes! Original alts in the motherf***ing house. Just you wait until Romney wins and all you lobs fellating Nate Silver ...wait. What day is this?!?


There were quite a few hilariously "Unskewed" predictions made by alts and Fark Independents™ the week before the election... Is anyone going to post a Best Of compilation, or are we doling them out gradually, as the posters in question slowly come out of hiding?
 
2012-11-07 09:51:37 PM

MisterTweak: that IS a screwy poll. My only guess is, it's socially beneficial in some places to say you believe that stuff, even if you don't?


The polling is mostly done by phone calls, and relatively anonymous. And most of the the historical data tracks against similar polls. It's just this last data point that seems a bit odd, not the rest of the series.

JerkStore: Does he have a choice?


Well, obviously he could be in even more denial than Rove.
Which is hard to imagine; but so was Rove's being deep in denial.
 
2012-11-07 10:01:16 PM

impaler: randomjsa: Considering he fell in line with normal polling data available on RCP. So his track record now includes 2008, which was the most predictable presidential election in years, 2010 with completely predictable results, and 2012 where he... said the same thing as almost everyone else. As for Rasmussen? Rasmussen to the best of my knowledge never predicted the crazy that was on UnSkewed. UnSkewed had Romney winning in Oregon for instance, and Rasmussen had that listed solid blue. That's just one example.

randomjsa: The subject was Nate Silver, a pollster that liberals are currently having a slobbering love affair with because he's telling them what they want to hear. I point out, and accurately, that his major claim to fame was his ability to predict one of the most easily predicted presidential races in history in 49 out of 50 examples. That's nothing to sneeze of course but because this Fark and this is one of the "Rasmussen sucks... changes his predictions close to election..." places I have to point out if that's true, then Obama is finished.

randomjsa: The more I see of Nate Silver, the more I know he's blowing smoke. His claim to fame being that he predicted 49 out of 50 states in the most easily predicted election in history and in the case of two of those, did nothing but get lucky.


You got served.
 
2012-11-07 10:14:41 PM
Rasmussen really made a lot of bad calls this time, that is even with moving Obama up a couple of points on a few key states just before the election. The big one of course is calling the popular vote for Romney. More of his failed projections here: Link
 
2012-11-07 10:18:24 PM

Hickory-smoked: There were quite a few hilariously "Unskewed" predictions made by alts and Fark Independents™ the week before the election... Is anyone going to post a Best Of compilation, or are we doling them out gradually, as the posters in question slowly come out of hiding?


did 'dforkus' take his medicine and pay out his end of the bets?


dforkus
2012-11-06 04:48:33 PM
Obama's lost 5 points in the last 5 minutes on intrade...

it's starting....

this is going to be... great....



....

dforkus
2012-11-06 04:55:06 PM
Kuroshin: Jim from Saint Paul: dforkus: Obama's lost 5 points in the last 5 minutes on intrade...

it's starting....

this is going to be... great....

Are we really going off something like that website to validate anything for either side?

=/

fivethirtyeight has adjusted Obama down by three points.

there you go, even Nate Silvers getting in on it...

I sincerely hope those sleepwalking in the Obamas-gonna-win delusion aren't too startled when they finally wake up


...


dforkus
2012-11-06 04:58:10 PM
Tigger: dforkus: cameroncrazy1984:

....

Not one of you 'gut feeling over statistics' types has had the balls to put any money on the line just yet.

You interested in being the first? How much do you want to place on a Romney win?

How's 3 months of Total Fark sound


i'm only bored enough to look for the above, but he bet 4 people 3 months of TF each. 

oddly, he stopped posting about when actual returns came in.
 
2012-11-07 10:23:26 PM

randomjsa: What I take from this is a huge amount of uproarious laughter because Nate Silver is lauded and praised for his amazingly amazing prediction results...

That were the same as almost everyone else.

You can quit drinking the kool-aid now. The guy does not have a magic formula. Unless Florida goes to Obama then I guessed 49 out of 50 states on the 5th just after midnight just by looking at polling data. I have never taken a single solitary class in the type of statistics used for elections and so the idea that Silver has some super secret method that nobody else does is funny to me...

Considering he fell in line with normal polling data available on RCP. So his track record now includes 2008, which was the most predictable presidential election in years, 2010 with completely predictable results, and 2012 where he... said the same thing as almost everyone else. As for Rasmussen? Rasmussen to the best of my knowledge never predicted the crazy that was on UnSkewed. UnSkewed had Romney winning in Oregon for instance, and Rasmussen had that listed solid blue. That's just one example.


Here was my predictions on Aug 8: Link

If I'd only had confidence that Florida would go Obama, I'd have been 50/50.
 
2012-11-07 10:35:26 PM

qorkfiend: Granny_Panties: Obama had his 15 minutes of fame. It's time to just shut about this empty suit and get with our lives.

Eight years, not 15 minutes. Sorry.


I believe the period of fame is going to be a lot longer than 8 years.
 
2012-11-07 10:41:13 PM
Reading Unskewedpolls for unskewed polls is like selling your gold to absolutelythebestpriceforgold.ch
 
2012-11-07 10:53:05 PM
As wrong as Rasmussen was, even they said "unskewed" was ridiculous and indeed Chambers had Romney winning but a substantially bigger margin than Rasmussen did. This dude literally just made shait up. And now he's embarrassed and trying to pass the buck.
 
2012-11-07 10:56:23 PM

incendi: He's just clueless.


He/she/it posts stupid shiat just to get responses that validate his/her/its existence.

The clueless farks are the people who actually respond.

It is pathetic really, but one thing I have come to realize is that this tab will never change.
 
2012-11-07 11:15:06 PM

impaler: Why didn't you say this yesterday you lying sack of shat?


I was... kinda busy yesterday and didn't log on Fark? Also, what did I lie about?

dletter: If I'd only had confidence that Florida would go Obama, I'd have been 50/50.


Oh yeah? Well... You don't have a popular well know website so the fact that you can make almost exactly the same predictions as a so called expert doesn't mean a thing right?

RyogaM: You got served.


I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess this is one of those times where somebody took what I said and their limited little mind was either unable or unwilling to actually understand what I said... So they had to substitute what they thought I said. You're posting things I said in the past about Nate Silver?

Things which are consistent with what I said today. Things in which I said he didn't do a single solitary thing that I couldn't do with about 98% of the same accuracy. If I can guess 49 out of 50 states given the most up to date data then I'm not terribly impressed with a so called expert who can do slightly better. The more I see of Nate Silver the more I think he's blowing smoke and today I know he's blowing smoke. Statistics are not my area so if that's the case why aren't you all just amazed at how this election cycle I was 98% accurate (at a minimum)?

Hickory-smoked: There were quite a few hilariously "Unskewed" predictions made by alts and Fark Independents™ the week before the election... Is anyone going to post a Best Of compilation, or are we doling them out gradually, as the posters in question slowly come out of hiding?


Nobody is hiding and the 'alt' accusation was old and tired a long time ago. "Well you make alts!" is nothing more than a desperate attempt at a come back when you have none. It's still slightly better than bragging about ignoring somebody because that remains the weakest form of 'come back' of all.

PC LOAD LETTER: Some folks were around his results...most were not.


Most were not? Right. That's got to be why his final prediction fell in line with with the data I picked up on the last couple of days (except Florida).

Jackpot777: Yes! Original alts in the motherf***ing house. Just you wait until Romney wins and all you lobs fellating Nate Silver ...wait. What day is this?!?


You sad little person. You probably think that what you said there was just terrible clever.

impaler: randomjsa


Once again, you're going to post something I said and it's going to make me look bad right? Totally!

I'll explain it to you since you didn't get it the first time.

Time and time and time again I heard the complaint on Fark about how horrible Rasmussen was and anytime you came back with how accurate he was in 2008 the Fark liberals snapped that Rasmussen just changes his results close to the election so he won't look bad. It was close to the election, Rasmussen showed Romney up during that period of about a week where it looked like Romney was a clear winner.

So then according to Fark liberals, Romney was winning? Weren't they the ones who kept saying Ramussen was correct close to the election where he changed his data? I'm assuming that you posted that because you thought I was saying that Obama was finished? As I said, you didn't get it. I was using the standards and rules set forth by liberals over several years: That Rasmussen was "right" close to the election because he "changes his results"... and if that was true, then Obama was finished.

By the way if you're going to go back and look up old posts of mine because you think they say something that they don't go dig up the two posts I made about UnSkewed being... Wrong. I believe my exact words were "No, this just what it should look like based on Libya alone", I don't remember the exact words, but since you're so keen on digging up things I said you get right on that and let me know what you think I said so I can correct you... Again.

mrshowrules: Nate Silver will be the first person to tell you that they don't do anything very fancy or complicated. It is very straight forward. The real story is how deluded Conservatives have been throughout this whole election. They didn't even remember that Silver was calling all those races for the GOP in 2010.


Oh I know he doesn't do anything fancy.I know that because somebody with his credentials and experience should be able to do something that I can't do myself with almost the same level of accuracy. I wouldn't even have bothered making predictions about all 50 states if people weren't bouncing around acting like Nate Silver had some voodoo spell that was giving him the inside scoop on something that nobody else had.

If I can do it, then most of you can do it, so stop being impressed.

incendi: He's just clueless.


About what if I may ask?

tarkus1980: Hey look everybody! randomjsa is back!


You know, I just said that alt accusations are probably only the second weakest thing after pointing out that you ignored somebody in terms of a comeback but at this rate people who have no idea where you've been or what you've been doing and just assume you were "hiding" might actually be on track to knock alt accusations down to third place on the "most pathetic' scale.
 
2012-11-07 11:15:17 PM

Farkomatic: The comments on unskewedpolls.com are epic. To wit:

"Amazon.com might seem like a good idea on the surface, but let's be honest... People aren't going to wait four days for a book to be delivered when they can just go to Borders and buy it there!". -dean chambers


I'm STILL giggling over the "Trick or Meat Loaf" comment.
 
2012-11-07 11:22:32 PM

randomjsa: Once again, you're going to post something I said and it's going to make me look bad right? Totally!


Admission is the first step to recovery.
 
2012-11-07 11:26:13 PM

impaler: randomjsa: Once again, you're going to post something I said and it's going to make me look bad right? Totally!

Admission is the first step to recovery.


Republicans are genuinely starting to terrify me.
 
2012-11-07 11:31:23 PM
MFW he mentions that it's finally just dawned on him that Rasmussen is biased towards the far right.

i1100.photobucket.com
 
2012-11-07 11:32:01 PM

randomjsa: What I take from this is a huge amount of uproarious laughter because Nate Silver is lauded and praised for his amazingly amazing prediction results...

That were the same as almost everyone else.

You can quit drinking the kool-aid now. The guy does not have a magic formula. Unless Florida goes to Obama then I guessed 49 out of 50 states on the 5th just after midnight just by looking at polling data. I have never taken a single solitary class in the type of statistics used for elections and so the idea that Silver has some super secret method that nobody else does is funny to me...

Considering he fell in line with normal polling data available on RCP. So his track record now includes 2008, which was the most predictable presidential election in years, 2010 with completely predictable results, and 2012 where he... said the same thing as almost everyone else. As for Rasmussen? Rasmussen to the best of my knowledge never predicted the crazy that was on UnSkewed. UnSkewed had Romney winning in Oregon for instance, and Rasmussen had that listed solid blue. That's just one example.


Oh, so you didn't think Romney was going to win until just after he conceded? You knew Obama was going to win long before yesterday?

Well, why didn't you SAY something, you wizard you! Here we thought you'd been a Romney man, but you knew it was Obama for sure all the time? Wow, did we have you pegged wrong!
 
2012-11-07 11:39:36 PM

JohnnyApocalypse: You know. A big part of me is happy. I prefer Obama. But a good part of me is sad. Nearly half the country is butthurt crestfallen. These are our brothers and sisters, though we may not see eye to eye. They don't feel the sting of defeat, as one might for your team losing in a football game. They should. Romney made plenty of gaffes along the way, but in the end, he showed very strongly and acquitted himself well. He gave his concession speech in grace, and though it is cold comfort, he should know that he is now in the history books. He was a contender.

The feeling that half the country is experiencing... they are gobsmacked. The rug was pulled out from under them. Look at the incessant crowing and cackling just before the election. There weren't nerves or hand-wringing, there was breathless anticipation. The polls were leaning heavily in a seemingly close but ultimately complete Romney victory. And then the tide went WAAAAAY out. This is like when you are all set to step on the mat in junior high to wrestle, and the coach pulls scrawny Milhouse and subs in Jerry Lawlor. You have only enough time to stare in confusion and gulp before you're off your feet and struggling to draw a breath.

People are wailing and gnashing their teeth because this isn't the reality they had been living in. It's red pill versus blue pill. It's sudden and traumatic. For so many months you were right, everyone you knew was right. And now you are all wrong. Think about this. Even I am troubled, and I was on the "right side" of this election. Is this another case of right wing echo chamber becoming a force of its own with no one at the controls? The same sort of thing that led the Bush admin to really believe that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and the time to invade was NOWNOWNOWGOGOGO! ?

Last night, I wallowed in the schadenfreude. Today, I feel empathy. I see the protestations and tempers on my facebook page, and I don't take the bait. I just want to have an even and measured res ...


You must be a better person than I am then, because I've been gloating big time today and I don't even care that it's probably being an ungracious winner. I've put up with so much shiat from so many people over the last four years that I'm just wanting to rub it in.
 
2012-11-07 11:46:37 PM

Gyrfalcon: randomjsa: What I take from this is a huge amount of uproarious laughter because Nate Silver is lauded and praised for his amazingly amazing prediction results...

That were the same as almost everyone else.

You can quit drinking the kool-aid now. The guy does not have a magic formula. Unless Florida goes to Obama then I guessed 49 out of 50 states on the 5th just after midnight just by looking at polling data. I have never taken a single solitary class in the type of statistics used for elections and so the idea that Silver has some super secret method that nobody else does is funny to me...

Considering he fell in line with normal polling data available on RCP. So his track record now includes 2008, which was the most predictable presidential election in years, 2010 with completely predictable results, and 2012 where he... said the same thing as almost everyone else. As for Rasmussen? Rasmussen to the best of my knowledge never predicted the crazy that was on UnSkewed. UnSkewed had Romney winning in Oregon for instance, and Rasmussen had that listed solid blue. That's just one example.

Oh, so you didn't think Romney was going to win until just after he conceded? You knew Obama was going to win long before yesterday?

Well, why didn't you SAY something, you wizard you! Here we thought you'd been a Romney man, but you knew it was Obama for sure all the time? Wow, did we have you pegged wrong!


Yeah, Nate Silver was just saying the same thing as anyone else! Nobody thought Romney was going to win! Nobody!.

//Not only did Nate get 50/50 states and all but one Senate seat, but his percentages were remarkably close. For example, popular vote his prediction was O 50.8 and R 48.3, which is almost exactly what it will wind up being.
 
2012-11-07 11:53:16 PM

randomjsa: tarkus1980: Hey look everybody! randomjsa is back!

You know, I just said that alt accusations are probably only the second weakest thing after pointing out that you ignored somebody in terms of a comeback but at this rate people who have no idea where you've been or what you've been doing and just assume you were "hiding" might actually be on track to knock alt accusations down to third place on the "most pathetic' scale.


What's pathetic about it? I read fark political threads for entertainment, and your return was a delight.
 
2012-11-07 11:59:49 PM
"I am not made up! I'm real!", exclaimed the lovechild of Snidely Whiplash and Cobra Commander.
 
2012-11-08 01:04:31 AM
You know, I've been hoping that some of the right wing would learn their freaking lesson about ignoring reality from this, but I really didn't think that Chambers would. Good for him.
/Maybe he'll eat Scott Rasmussen.
 
2012-11-08 01:21:37 AM
Yay! One of the entertaining guys is back!

/Seriously, it just didn't feel like the politics tab without SOMEONE being a Palin-American.
 
2012-11-08 01:28:30 AM
Wow. It's almost shocking to see someone on the right admit to being wrong with no denial or equivocation whatsoever.
 
2012-11-08 01:30:58 AM

FuturePastNow: Wow. It's almost shocking to see someone on the right admit to being wrong with no denial or equivocation whatsoever.


He's blaming Rasmussen. He also was originally calling the race for Romney with a huge, ridiculous landslide which he only corrected a day or two before the election.
 
2012-11-08 01:37:36 AM
Whatever credibility Rasmussen had is shot. Even Republicans aren't going to be able to trust them in 2014 after they totally blew this cycle. In fact, it sounds like a lot of the GOP feel betrayed by Rasmussen for allowing them to live so deeply in the bubble. No one is going to take them seriously.

They're going to have no choice but to stop leaning GOP in order to improve their reputation.

Gallup's credibility is similarly in the toilet. This is the second Presidential election in a row that they've completely blown.
 
2012-11-08 01:45:50 AM
I have never been called for a poll, robodialer, or any unsolicited call. Cell phone only wrong area code for where I live now. Yay!?
 
2012-11-08 01:57:44 AM

FuturePastNow: Wow. It's almost shocking to see someone on the right admit to being wrong with no denial or equivocation whatsoever.


I've seen a lot of Republicans admit today that they got the election wrong, that Nate Silver was right, but they refuse to admit that they allowed themselves to live in a bubble. Many people were predicting a big Obama win in the EC, and even RCP which is right leaning projected Obama to win most of the states he did. But they GOP ignored all of the evidence, which is the fundamental problem with the party -- they ignore facts that go counter to their beliefs .
 
2012-11-08 03:29:38 AM

Granny_Panties: Obama had his 15 minutes of fame. It's time to just shut about this empty suit and get with our lives.


I enjoy watching the death throes of an alt/troll.

Almost as much as I enjoyed the election results.

Good times, good times...
 
2012-11-08 03:58:09 AM

Vodka Zombie: Ya know? Republicans are going to hate this guy in the coming days or weeks, and you know what? They should.

He lied to them.

If only the dumb bastards in that party could hold all the other liars accountable.


It's possible he was flat out lying, but he could also have been genuine...

The premise of what he was saying isn't actually impossible: pollsters take the raw numbers and adjust them to more accurately match the population to account for things like "democrats answer polls less often" (which may or may not be a thing, I don't know)

That, by itself, is a standard way to handle a a statistical pickle, and with a limited sample set, it's more of an art than a science. The statement "Their adjustments for systematic uncertainties isn't right" isnt wrong by itself.
 
2012-11-08 07:12:51 AM

Vodka Zombie: Ya know? Republicans are going to hate this guy in the coming days or weeks, and you know what? They should.

He lied to them.

If only the dumb bastards in that party could hold all the other liars accountable.


And they wanted him to lie to them. If he hadn't, they would have turned on him in fury. The right was in a bubble this time, almost every single person on the right. They all suffered from the mass delusion that Romney was going to win big, like a gambler down twenty grand at the blackjack table.

They should be angry with themselves. But they aren't. The bubble of the 2012 election has been popped, but the outer bubble remains.
 
2012-11-08 07:34:43 AM

The Larch: I hope this guy made a lot of money from this. Honestly, I really do. I hope he managed to suck millions of dollars from rove and Romney and every soft money organization he could find. I hope he got so much he'll never have to work again.


This. I'm just ashamed I didn't think of it first. I'd love to know what his click through rate is now that he's had a bijillion hits on his site. Seriously, it's the perfect scam.
 
2012-11-08 09:01:04 AM

DeltaPunch: Fuggin Bizzy: DamnYankees: Good for him.

This.

Dean, just for that, I'll stop making fun of you now.

You know, when someone challenged his numbers in comparison to 538, he said this:

"Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the "Mr. New Castrati" voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be."

F*ck that ignorant, childish fat-ass. Until he apologizes to Nate Silver, Dean Chambers can go suck on a bowl of skewed dicks.


I'm digging impaler's theory that he IS Nate Silver.

In which case Nate Silver would, in fact, be a genius.
 
2012-11-08 09:23:20 AM
Dean Chambers really SHOULD consider a new career in gay porn.

He'd be a superstar.
 
2012-11-08 09:29:04 AM

randomjsa: mrshowrules: Nate Silver will be the first person to tell you that they don't do anything very fancy or complicated. It is very straight forward. The real story is how deluded Conservatives have been throughout this whole election. They didn't even remember that Silver was calling all those races for the GOP in 2010.

Oh I know he doesn't do anything fancy.I know that because somebody with his credentials and experience should be able to do something that I can't do myself with almost the same level of accuracy. I wouldn't even have bothered making predictions about all 50 states if people weren't bouncing around acting like Nate Silver had some voodoo spell that was giving him the inside scoop on something that nobody else had.

If I can do it, then most of you can do it, so stop being impressed.


Most of the "GOP" predictors were either trying to just get their website hits up from rubes, or highly deluding themselves (and others, I was reading articles that these "big donor" types were being fed that Minnesota and Pennsylvania, lost by 8 and 5% respectively, were possibly in play for the GOP within the last week).

Yes, most "normal people" could make educated guesses about all the states and get 48, 49, 50 out of 50. The reality was, other than Florida, there were really not many "Toss up" states. "Toss Up" states (and how many they claim there are) is honestly a paradigm thrown out by the media to make an interesting story. I think that is more what people like Nate Silver are trying to expose to the general populace.
 
2012-11-08 09:30:58 AM

ShawnDoc: Forget Rasmussen, this is the game he's played for a long time. The real question is, WTF is up with Gallup? Gallup used to be cool, then 4 weeks before the election they changed their model and went all derp.


They messed up their turnout models. I don't fault them and think that trying to conform to a mainstream view on how it should be done is dangerous. Gallup messed this one up, but it happens, it's part of why both individual polls and aggregation are both important. The problem as I see it is the aggregators might have to start shelling out money to help keep individual polling firms in business as any particular poll becomes less relevant. I remember reading 538 in 2008 when Silver didn't even ID himself because he didn't want the publicity and it was clear it was just some really smart guy figuring out a way to use all these for more data. And even since then one of the most important factors has been the independence of each poll.

In short, someone screwing up like that is a good thing as a reality check and a probably inevitable result of statistical independence and should be well incorporated into any model.
 
2012-11-08 10:14:50 AM
What an asshole. Seriously.

"Sure, for the last couple of years, pretty much everyone other than the Republicans indicated that Rasmussen polls are biased towards Republicans, but, hey, I ignored them, because what do they know, those liberal partisan hacks, right? So, I was paid by Republicans to act as a foil for Nate Silver, using my clearly flawed judgement to spew partisan attacks on Twitter even as I peddled my crap to media outlets desperate for a horse race."

"Guess what? I was wrong. Sure, everyone other than the Republicans knew I was wrong, but I was able to participate in smearing Nate Silver - I was the James O'Keefe of poll analysis. Now, I'm just tossing in a mea culpa and blaming Rasmussen for making me look like a horse's ass, hoping that folks will still take me seriously come the mid-terms, when I can once again push my ersatz 'analysis' and rant about how liberal partisan hacks are destroying this fine nation with their obviously biased statistical analysis."

Fark you, Dean Chambers. The data says that you're not just wrong, you're also a dick, too.
 
2012-11-08 10:51:30 AM
Oh hey guyz!

i.qkme.me
 
2012-11-08 11:40:25 AM

randomjsa: What I take from this is a huge amount of uproarious laughter because Nate Silver is lauded and praised for his amazingly amazing prediction results...

That were the same as almost everyone else.


Cut to the 8 minute mark
 
2012-11-08 03:30:52 PM
i.imgur.com
 
Bf+
2012-11-09 09:53:41 AM
I'm having trouble finding the "unskewed polls comments page" article on Fark.
Did the mods pull it or something?
I see his comments section auto-redirects to the Rebeka Black video now.
 
2012-11-09 03:52:26 PM

FormlessOne: "Guess what? I was wrong. Sure, everyone other than the Republicans knew I was wrong, but I was able to participate in smearing Nate Silver"


idk if that's an effective smear. Being publicly wrong and calling him out by name as being diametrically opposed in every methodology doesn't seem like a winning strat.

Again, I'm left wondering if Dean Chambers is a real person. And then the deepest darkest recesses of my being wonder if Dean Chambers is actually Nate Silver.
 
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