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(Slate)   The day after Pundit Scorecard. Who was right, who was wrong, and who owes Nate Silver a BIG apology   (slate.com) divider line 55
    More: Obvious, Pundit Scorecard, pundits, predictions  
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4156 clicks; posted to Politics » on 07 Nov 2012 at 9:43 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-07 09:19:57 AM  
Will, Morris and Barone should all resign. Pathetic. As David Frum said:

davidfrum @davidfrum
Dick Morris is just a huckster. But George Will & Michael Barone getting map so badly wrong is a warning: GOP no longer knows its country
 
2012-11-07 09:45:35 AM  
Is Karl Rove still trying to claim that Romney might win Ohio?
 
2012-11-07 09:46:27 AM  

Philip Francis Queeg: Is Karl Rove still trying to claim that Romney might win Ohio?


Rove just needed more money to work with! So donate generously now.
 
2012-11-07 09:47:00 AM  

Philip Francis Queeg: Is Karl Rove still trying to claim that Romney might win Ohio?


GET THOSE PEOPLE BACK IN HERE! TURN THOSE MACHINES BACK ON!

tradingplaces.jpg
 
2012-11-07 09:47:51 AM  
cdn.theatlanticwire.com
 
2012-11-07 09:48:23 AM  
This news just in:

Dick Morfris, who predicted a Romney landslide on Tuesday, just hanged himself!.

Unfortunately, he used a wet noodle which broke. He promptly ate the noodle and applied for food stamps because his poliutical pundit business is ruined.
 
2012-11-07 09:48:59 AM  
so the Washington Redskins prediction is completely dead now... long live the Alabama-LSU prediction
 
2012-11-07 09:49:05 AM  
Nate missed by 19 (assuming 0bama holds florida as the article mentions), so not sure why he needs an apology.
 
2012-11-07 09:50:02 AM  

DamnYankees: Will, Morris and Barone should all resign. Pathetic. As David Frum said:

davidfrum @davidfrum
Dick Morris is just a huckster. But George Will & Michael Barone getting map so badly wrong is a warning: GOP no longer knows its country


Oh, they know - their polls weren't meant to show reality, but to influence it. Hence, all the GOP hate for Nate Silver. It's hard to lie convincingly when you've got some guy standing next to you debunking everything you're saying, as you're saying it.
 
2012-11-07 09:51:17 AM  

tenpoundsofcheese: Nate missed by 19 (assuming 0bama holds florida as the article mentions), so not sure why he needs an apology.


He didn't miss by anything. They are mistaking the first chart for the actual projection, which is dumb - that chart is, I believe, the mean electoral vote of his simulations - it was never meant to be an actual prediction (since it always has decimals). If you go state-by-state, Silver was 50 for 50.
 
2012-11-07 09:51:49 AM  
Fox News Pundits were wrong, TardHall & AmericanDrinker have now trippled the thickness of their tinfoil hats. Everyone else based their projections and discussions on polls without refuting their truthiness.

/did I guess right.
 
2012-11-07 09:53:01 AM  

DamnYankees: tenpoundsofcheese: Nate missed by 19 (assuming 0bama holds florida as the article mentions), so not sure why he needs an apology.

He didn't miss by anything. They are mistaking the first chart for the actual projection, which is dumb - that chart is, I believe, the mean electoral vote of his simulations - it was never meant to be an actual prediction (since it always has decimals). If you go state-by-state, Silver was 50 for 50.


like you're ever going to get anything approximating a concession from tenpoundsofshiat.

Don't feed the trolls, let them bathe in the warm tears of their total defeat.
 
2012-11-07 09:53:50 AM  
Who would have guessed that "unskewed polls" actually meant "complete fantasy?"
 
2012-11-07 09:55:11 AM  

tenpoundsofcheese: Nate missed by 19 (assuming 0bama holds florida as the article mentions), so not sure why he needs an apology.


Nate Silver "projected" 313 because it was an average of all of his scenarios. His most likely outcome was 332 electoral votes, as you can see by his Electoral Vote Distribution on the right sidebar at 538.

It has Putnam being exact and not Silver because it's using Putnam's mode (most likely outcome) vs. Silver's mean (average of outcomes)
 
2012-11-07 09:57:33 AM  

tenpoundsofcheese: Nate missed by 19 (assuming 0bama holds florida as the article mentions), so not sure why he needs an apology.


According to his state by state predictions, Silver didn't miss by anything (assuming President Obama holds Florida). You almost have to go by those, since electoral votes aren't incremental like his predictions - there was no math to get Obama to exactly 315.6 or whatever it was. That wasn't the point of that metric.
 
2012-11-07 09:59:59 AM  

DamnYankees: tenpoundsofcheese: Nate missed by 19 (assuming 0bama holds florida as the article mentions), so not sure why he needs an apology.

He didn't miss by anything. They are mistaking the first chart for the actual projection, which is dumb - that chart is, I believe, the mean electoral vote of his simulations - it was never meant to be an actual prediction (since it always has decimals). If you go state-by-state, Silver was 50 for 50.


This. That number comes from the average of "splitting" Florida because the model had it at almost exactly 50/50, so in about half the simulations Obama gets 303 EV (loses Fl) and in the other half 332 EV. Obviously, that is a result that can never actually happen.

What's most impressive to me though is not that Nate hit the 50 (including DC) that have been called so far; nor even that he hit all the swing states called so far; but that he predicted that Florida would be insanely close, and that's exactly what we are seeing. That's really important for his credibility the next time we do this and he predicts a narrow win for Candidate X in State Y, because precision matters.
 
2012-11-07 10:01:00 AM  

PawisBetlog: DamnYankees: tenpoundsofcheese: Nate missed by 19 (assuming 0bama holds florida as the article mentions), so not sure why he needs an apology.

He didn't miss by anything. They are mistaking the first chart for the actual projection, which is dumb - that chart is, I believe, the mean electoral vote of his simulations - it was never meant to be an actual prediction (since it always has decimals). If you go state-by-state, Silver was 50 for 50.

like you're ever going to get anything approximating a concession from tenpoundsofshiat.

Don't feed the trolls, let them bathe in the warm tears of their total defeat.


meh. I said ages ago that 0bama would win and that the gop would firmly keep the house. the only play was in the senate and looks like not much net change there.
 
2012-11-07 10:02:05 AM  

tenpoundsofcheese: Nate missed by 19 (assuming 0bama holds florida as the article mentions), so not sure why he needs an apology.


Hmmm... so the fact you're still a-herpin' and a-derpin' suggests to me that either you've been trolling this whole election gratis (which boggles the mind) or you really are as ignorant as you portray yourself on here. Which is it?
 
2012-11-07 10:02:08 AM  

Imperialism: tenpoundsofcheese: Nate missed by 19 (assuming 0bama holds florida as the article mentions), so not sure why he needs an apology.

Nate Silver "projected" 313 because it was an average of all of his scenarios. His most likely outcome was 332 electoral votes, as you can see by his Electoral Vote Distribution on the right sidebar at 538.

It has Putnam being exact and not Silver because it's using Putnam's mode (most likely outcome) vs. Silver's mean (average of outcomes)


More than that, Silver had Florida as being the hardest to call state, with only a very slight edge to Obama of 50.3% (probability, not votes). Given that CNN has yet to call only one state, Florida, it's clear that Silver's forecast was about as perfect as a forecast could be. Indeed, Silver's mode was, I believe, 332.
 
2012-11-07 10:02:46 AM  

czetie: DamnYankees: tenpoundsofcheese: Nate missed by 19 (assuming 0bama holds florida as the article mentions), so not sure why he needs an apology.

He didn't miss by anything. They are mistaking the first chart for the actual projection, which is dumb - that chart is, I believe, the mean electoral vote of his simulations - it was never meant to be an actual prediction (since it always has decimals). If you go state-by-state, Silver was 50 for 50.

This. That number comes from the average of "splitting" Florida because the model had it at almost exactly 50/50, so in about half the simulations Obama gets 303 EV (loses Fl) and in the other half 332 EV. Obviously, that is a result that can never actually happen.


So it isn't a prediction then.
 
2012-11-07 10:02:54 AM  
Drew Linzer and Andrew Tanenbaum (both of whom have been doing this since 2004) conspicuously missing from the chart.

Also odd: Most of those predictions (like Rove's) are based on maps, not statistics; therefore Silver's dart should be right on the bullseye based on the map.
 
2012-11-07 10:03:10 AM  

czetie: DamnYankees: tenpoundsofcheese: Nate missed by 19 (assuming 0bama holds florida as the article mentions), so not sure why he needs an apology.

He didn't miss by anything. They are mistaking the first chart for the actual projection, which is dumb - that chart is, I believe, the mean electoral vote of his simulations - it was never meant to be an actual prediction (since it always has decimals). If you go state-by-state, Silver was 50 for 50.

This. That number comes from the average of "splitting" Florida because the model had it at almost exactly 50/50, so in about half the simulations Obama gets 303 EV (loses Fl) and in the other half 332 EV. Obviously, that is a result that can never actually happen.

What's most impressive to me though is not that Nate hit the 50 (including DC) that have been called so far; nor even that he hit all the swing states called so far; but that he predicted that Florida would be insanely close, and that's exactly what we are seeing. That's really important for his credibility the next time we do this and he predicts a narrow win for Candidate X in State Y, because precision matters.


Exactly. He should actually get more credit because his number is basically saying "look, Obama will get to 303 or 332, and it's slightly more likely that he gets to 332." That's incredibly precise, and is great validation for his model. NY Times should give him a huge raise, as he may be the only writer that would get me to subscribe to get past their pay wall. I repeat - Nate Silver will get people to subscribe, NY Times.
 
2012-11-07 10:07:38 AM  
Most of these were really much of predictions since they were given right before the election when polls made things obvious. Go back to what the various people were saying weeks or months ago. People who had a clue about math (538, PEC, electoral-vote, etc.) were close, people without a clue about math (unskewed, most pundits, etc.) were laughable wrong.
 
2012-11-07 10:07:38 AM  

Sasquatchuan: Exactly. He should actually get more credit because his number is basically saying "look, Obama will get to 303 or 332, and it's slightly more likely that he gets to 332." That's incredibly precise, and is great validation for his model. NY Times should give him a huge raise, as he may be the only writer that would get me to subscribe to get past their pay wall. I repeat - Nate Silver will get people to subscribe, NY Times.


I'm not sure if I'd go that far, especially since I can already access 538 for free. But Silver's blog is literally the only thing I care about related to the NY Times. I kinda hope that this year's victory for him really puts pressure on the pundit class to be somewhat more realistic in their pandering and propaganda.
 
2012-11-07 10:09:23 AM  

tenpoundsofcheese: PawisBetlog: DamnYankees: tenpoundsofcheese: Nate missed by 19 (assuming 0bama holds florida as the article mentions), so not sure why he needs an apology.

He didn't miss by anything. They are mistaking the first chart for the actual projection, which is dumb - that chart is, I believe, the mean electoral vote of his simulations - it was never meant to be an actual prediction (since it always has decimals). If you go state-by-state, Silver was 50 for 50.

like you're ever going to get anything approximating a concession from tenpoundsofshiat.

Don't feed the trolls, let them bathe in the warm tears of their total defeat.

meh. I said ages ago that 0bama would win and that the gop would firmly keep the house. the only play was in the senate and looks like not much net change there.


In a sense, nothing much has changed. Obama is president (of course, he's a lame duck now :^>) , the House is strongly GOP, the Senate has a Dem. majority. McConnell wasted no time in clearly affirming that he has no intention whatever of working with the Democrats except on his terms.

However, there might be a slight change in the composition of the SCOTUS in the next four years. We can only hope.
 
2012-11-07 10:13:01 AM  
Anyone else remember Glenn Beck's prediction map?
www.theblaze.com
 
2012-11-07 10:14:23 AM  

Mercutio74: Sasquatchuan: Exactly. He should actually get more credit because his number is basically saying "look, Obama will get to 303 or 332, and it's slightly more likely that he gets to 332." That's incredibly precise, and is great validation for his model. NY Times should give him a huge raise, as he may be the only writer that would get me to subscribe to get past their pay wall. I repeat - Nate Silver will get people to subscribe, NY Times.

I'm not sure if I'd go that far, especially since I can already access 538 for free. But Silver's blog is literally the only thing I care about related to the NY Times. I kinda hope that this year's victory for him really puts pressure on the pundit class to be somewhat more realistic in their pandering and propaganda.


Ahh, I guess that's a good point. I was being hyperbolic, but still, he's a huge feather in the cap for NY Times, and because of his accuracy in the past three cycles, everyone will have their eyes on him going forward. Even if he's not the only one with a good forecasting model, the right has basically anointed him as the exemplar of forecasting through their attempts to discredit him. Funny how that works.
 
2012-11-07 10:16:24 AM  
What's even more impressive is Sam Wang - he once again hit the EC exactly. That means in the last three Presidential elections, he has been off by a grand total of one electoral vote.
 
2012-11-07 10:16:58 AM  
It went by really fast, but the Fox News anchors did concede around midnight that Nate Silver was right.

There's no denying that Silver is going to become a major force. Next time someone has a prediction that defies the polls, everyone is going to point to Silver and his perfect 2012 score card.
 
2012-11-07 10:20:41 AM  

christianity: Anyone else remember Glenn Beck's prediction map?
[www.theblaze.com image 620x479]


That's a joke, right? An actual person didn't posit that as a realistic scenario, right? Romney taking Illinois even? GTFO that's got to be a joke. Stop pulling my leg!
 
2012-11-07 10:22:14 AM  

DamnYankees: What's even more impressive is Sam Wang - he once again hit the EC exactly. That means in the last three Presidential elections, he has been off by a grand total of one electoral vote.


Actually, he decided to flip a coin on Florida and call it red.

Then again, I think that "Florida will be in recount range" is a perfectly accurate prediction rather than getting 303 or 332 exactly correct.
 
2012-11-07 10:23:53 AM  

AdamK: so the Washington Redskins prediction is completely dead now... long live the Alabama-LSU prediction


Yep, Redskin Rule is now RIP

The Guam Straw Poll (it has correctly picked who will become President since it's inception IIRC) and the Halloween mask sales (it has correctly picked the last 5 winners by who sold the most masks) are the new hotness.
 
2012-11-07 10:26:02 AM  

LazarusLong42: Actually, he decided to flip a coin on Florida and call it red.


Oh, I missed that. YOU SUCK WANG.
 
2012-11-07 10:27:27 AM  

Flaming Yawn: In a sense, nothing much has changed. Obama is president (of course, he's a lame duck now :^>) , the House is strongly GOP, the Senate has a Dem. majority. McConnell wasted no time in clearly affirming that he has no intention whatever of working with the Democrats except on his terms.

However, there might be a slight change in the composition of the SCOTUS in the next four years. We can only hope.


Actually, I see it the other way now. He doesn't have to save much political capital since he's not running next cycle. The electorate, coming off of a dismal 4 year recession has chosen to reject the GOP's offer of a solution. This means that the American public (which is made of up predominantly low-information voters) realizes that the GOP does not have the answers and in fact, were probably big contributors to the ills that have befallen the country.

So, if Obama and the Dems can try and push forward and risk the GOP being totally left behind in 2014, the Republicans will have to figure out who they want to be. Do they think that Romney was rejected because he was too moderate? If so, why did most swing states go to Obama? Or, do they rightly see that this whole "tea party" experiment has gone totally off the rails and that advertising dollars can only drag the American voter so far to the right before even lifelong Republicans say, "Wait a second here... I like low taxes and small gov't, but we don't want to live in a failed nation where small gov't means low capital gains tax and oddly inappropriate musing about when rape is really rape and whether god approves of rape."

It's time for the GOP to take a close look at what St. Reagan actually did... then go back and look at Eisenhower and think about what those GOP "heroes" considered reasonable policy.

Maybe get educated about macroeconomics, maybe think about the future of the nation instead of just far enough to get re-elected, reject Norquist's foolish tax pledge en masse, and most importantly, begin an organized purge of the tea party from the ranks. While they're at it, they should probably also fire that whiny, nasally Rince Andrepeat or whatever the chairman's name is, and hire someone moderate and reasonable to guide the party.

This, like it or not, will be the GOPs path back to control. Doubling down just isn't working so well. If there was ever an incumbent to defeat... this was it. Instead the Dems got re-elected president, and did well in Senate and House elections during the tail end of a crushing recession. If you think this year was bad, keep tea partying and see what '14 brings after two more years of recovery.
 
2012-11-07 10:28:42 AM  
Why isn't Nate's model right in the center of the target?

His model gave 332 electoral vote the highest probability in the Electoral Vote distribution, around 20% chance.
 
2012-11-07 10:29:08 AM  

DamnYankees: LazarusLong42: Actually, he decided to flip a coin on Florida and call it red.

Oh, I missed that. YOU SUCK WANG.


You must be all warm and fuzzy this morning. I remember you breathing in and out of a paper bag after the first debate. :D Congrats on your guys doing well.
 
2012-11-07 10:29:50 AM  

Mercutio74: DamnYankees: LazarusLong42: Actually, he decided to flip a coin on Florida and call it red.

Oh, I missed that. YOU SUCK WANG.

You must be all warm and fuzzy this morning. I remember you breathing in and out of a paper bag after the first debate. :D Congrats on your guys doing well.


I do feel pretty fuzzy.
 
2012-11-07 10:30:17 AM  
Dick Morris' dart didn't just miss the board, it embedded itself in the head of the big angry Irish guy at the bar.
 
2012-11-07 10:36:42 AM  

tenpoundsofcheese: PawisBetlog: DamnYankees: tenpoundsofcheese: Nate missed by 19 (assuming 0bama holds florida as the article mentions), so not sure why he needs an apology.

He didn't miss by anything. They are mistaking the first chart for the actual projection, which is dumb - that chart is, I believe, the mean electoral vote of his simulations - it was never meant to be an actual prediction (since it always has decimals). If you go state-by-state, Silver was 50 for 50.

like you're ever going to get anything approximating a concession from tenpoundsofshiat.

Don't feed the trolls, let them bathe in the warm tears of their total defeat.

meh. I said ages ago that 0bama would win and that the gop would firmly keep the house. the only play was in the senate and looks like not much net change there.


By not a lot of change you mean +3
not to mention in our state Tammy retaining as seat that conventional wisdom said she should have no chance a few months ago.
so there is that
but you keep on meh'ing
 
2012-11-07 10:38:14 AM  

tenpoundsofcheese: Nate missed by 19 (assuming 0bama holds florida as the article mentions), so not sure why he needs an apology.


Um no. He didn't miss anything.

Averages..How the fark do they work???

/Math is not that hard...really.
 
2012-11-07 10:39:48 AM  
Isnatesilverawitch.com has revised its forecast to "Probably."
 
2012-11-07 10:43:30 AM  

Mentat: Dick Morris' dart didn't just miss the board, it embedded itself in the headfoot of the big angry Irish guy at the bar.

 
2012-11-07 10:46:44 AM  
I'm not sure it's fair to judge the predictions' accuracy by delta number of electoral votes, because in the end they boil down to which pundits correctly guessed the large battleground state outcomes, and which guessed the medium-sized battleground state outcomes.
 
2012-11-07 10:48:55 AM  
so, now we are getting "Nate Silver didn't beat the spread, so he's still a loser, herp derp derp."
 
2012-11-07 10:51:56 AM  

Philip Francis Queeg: Is Karl Rove still trying to claim that Romney might win Ohio?


But Rove is the greatest political mind of this or any century. He's a strategic powerhouse.
A political genius. A GENIUS, I TELL YOU!!!

Now will people finally shut up with the the old "He's a worm, but a great political strategist" crap and put this asshole on the dungheap of history where he belongs?
 
2012-11-07 10:53:19 AM  

MrBallou: Philip Francis Queeg: Is Karl Rove still trying to claim that Romney might win Ohio?

But Rove is the greatest political mind of this or any century. He's a strategic powerhouse.
A political genius. A GENIUS, I TELL YOU!!!

Now will people finally shut up with the the old "He's a worm, but a great political strategist" crap and put this asshole on the dungheap of history where he belongs?


Are you kidding? They need to give him all their money next time too.
 
2012-11-07 11:13:11 AM  

DamnYankees: What's even more impressive is Sam Wang - he once again hit the EC exactly. That means in the last three Presidential elections, he has been off by a grand total of one electoral vote.


Wang is straight on.

DamnYankees: Will, Morris and Barone should all resign. Pathetic. As David Frum said:

davidfrum @davidfrum
Dick Morris is just a huckster. But George Will & Michael Barone getting map so badly wrong is a warning: GOP no longer knows its country


They know their country; they just don't like how it is or care that they're wrong.

I just hope the media remembers how full of crap, partisan, and wrong these people are the next time they consider bringing them on their networks as "experts." And yes, I know the media is too stupid to do this.
 
2012-11-07 11:41:40 AM  

Satanic_Hamster:
I just hope the media remembers how full of crap, partisan, and wrong these people are the next time they consider bringing them on their networks as "experts." And yes, I know the media is too stupid to do this.


They would be stupid *not* to do it. The media needs a horse race. The media needs the polls to tell us that this thing is neck and neck, so they can then tell you to keep watching the media for more reports on just how neck and neck this is....

If they reported the truth: "Looks like a close popular vote with Obama winning in a blowout for the electoral vote" then no one would watch the advertising they sell.

The media is a business. It is run as a business. Filter whatever they tell you through that lens, and everything makes sense.
 
2012-11-07 11:59:16 AM  

tenpoundsofcheese: Nate missed by 19 (assuming 0bama holds florida as the article mentions), so not sure why he needs an apology.


No one who operates a computer can really be this stupid.
 
2012-11-07 01:33:02 PM  
Also, this should be called a "Predictions Scorecard". Despite what the GOP would have you believe, Nate Silver and Josh Putnam are not "Pundits", they are mathematicians. And low and behold, look who are the only ones who hit a bullseye.
 
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