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(Daily Kos)   Michael Steele: "No one saw this coming." In unrelated news, people who read FiveThirtyEight or can do simple math are "no one"   (dailykos.com) divider line 50
    More: Fail, FiveThirtyEight, Sherrod Brown, Tammy Baldwin, Health Care, International, Daily Kos, concession speech, Dick Morris  
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2750 clicks; posted to Politics » on 07 Nov 2012 at 10:10 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-07 01:26:43 AM  
It was fun watching the bubble being popped. Lets hope it spreads.
 
2012-11-07 01:36:50 AM  
Fox News is just ashen faced with disbelief.
 
2012-11-07 02:35:04 AM  

Smashed Hat: Fox News is just ashen faced with disbelief.


Nah, they saw it coming. Or at least, most of them did.
 
2012-11-07 02:37:48 AM  
Also, fivethirtyeight did an excellent job, but there WAS reason to hope (or dread), at least, that it might prove incorrect. It wasn't just a matter of "simple math." Still, his analyses helped me win a bet, so I'd hoist Mr. Silver on my shoulders if I could.
 
2012-11-07 03:26:45 AM  

Relatively Obscure: Smashed Hat: Fox News is just ashen faced with disbelief.

Nah, they saw it coming. Or at least, most of them did.


Never discount the narcotic effect of self-delusion. Happened with liberals going into the 2010 election. Now these yo-yos.

The sad thing is that apparently Romney may have started fantasizing about what it would be like to fly around in Air Force One and so on. His fall from fantasy to reality is particularly far and painful...and self-inflicted. McCain never seemed deluded about the electoral realities...but then McCain had actual experience of hardship and loss.
 
2012-11-07 03:39:12 AM  

wejash: Relatively Obscure: Smashed Hat: Fox News is just ashen faced with disbelief.

Nah, they saw it coming. Or at least, most of them did.

Never discount the narcotic effect of self-delusion. Happened with liberals going into the 2010 election. Now these yo-yos.

The sad thing is that apparently Romney may have started fantasizing about what it would be like to fly around in Air Force One and so on. His fall from fantasy to reality is particularly far and painful...and self-inflicted. McCain never seemed deluded about the electoral realities...but then McCain had actual experience of hardship and loss.


I've no doubt that Romney felt he had a chance. I don't suspect he thought it was a GREAT chance. I think the same is likely with many of the talking heads and analysts. The confounded were more likely to be people like some of my dear co-workers (thanks for the wagers, you guys!)

/Love my co-workers. Good folks. Downright delusional at times, though.
 
2012-11-07 06:26:31 AM  

Relatively Obscure: Also, fivethirtyeight did an excellent job, but there WAS reason to hope (or dread), at least, that it might prove incorrect. It wasn't just a matter of "simple math." Still, his analyses helped me win a bet, so I'd hoist Mr. Silver on my shoulders if I could.


It's almost as though scientific forecasts can be a reliable tool people can use to help predict trends and probable outcome. Funny.
 
2012-11-07 07:00:13 AM  
imgs.xkcd.com

imgs.xkcd.com

imgs.xkcd.com

imgs.xkcd.com
 
2012-11-07 09:58:27 AM  

Relatively Obscure: Smashed Hat: Fox News is just ashen faced with disbelief.

Nah, they saw it coming. Or at least, most of them did.



Yep. I think they were the first to call Ohio last night. When they did, it had that "(sigh)...let's get this over with" kind of feel to it.
 
2012-11-07 10:12:51 AM  
WTF? 'nobody saw this coming'!? dude, I was on the ground in the Obama campaign and even WE saw this coming. did we expect to win as big as we did? no. But we knew we were winning.
 
2012-11-07 10:12:57 AM  
blogs.villagevoice.com
 
2012-11-07 10:12:57 AM  
Science and math defeated "gut feelings", and will continue to do so.

Forever.
 
2012-11-07 10:14:32 AM  
BREAKING NEWS: Reince Priebus currently filling out applications at local Wal-Marts for the position of store greeter.
 
2012-11-07 10:15:47 AM  
538 didn't get a single state wrong.

Not. A. Single. One.

I feel like I need to round up every single hack that wrote a hit piece on Nate Silver and force them to explain themselves.

Get ready for more pathetic excuses.
 
2012-11-07 10:17:52 AM  
How many conservative pundits will lose their jobs?

Karl Rove should be fired along with Charles Krauthammer, George Will, Dick Morris, Joe Scarborough, and the entire Fox and Friends morning crew.
 
2012-11-07 10:18:25 AM  

lemurs: Science and math defeated "gut feelings", and will continue to do so.

Forever.


Dude that's the best part
 
2012-11-07 10:21:17 AM  
The vindication of Nate Silver and the refutation of his critics should send a powerful message to the GOP.
You are not entitled to your own facts. Your feelings on a subject are a reflection of reality - not reality itself.
You should not tear someone down and ignore their analysis just because you don't like their results.

This should cause the GOP to reconsider other areas where they've summarily dismissed numbers that they don't like.

It should, but it won't. Because that's what rational people would do, and the party is no longer made of rational actors.

It's now a party of people pleading for someone to lie to them, lead by a group of men that are all too happy to do so as long as it lets them hold on to some amount of power for another day.
 
2012-11-07 10:23:53 AM  

Esc7: I feel like I need to round up every single hack that wrote a hit piece on Nate Silver and force them to explain themselves.


Start with Jonah Goldberg, please.
 
2012-11-07 10:23:57 AM  

Relatively Obscure: wejash: Relatively Obscure: Smashed Hat: Fox News is just ashen faced with disbelief.

Nah, they saw it coming. Or at least, most of them did.

Never discount the narcotic effect of self-delusion. Happened with liberals going into the 2010 election. Now these yo-yos.

The sad thing is that apparently Romney may have started fantasizing about what it would be like to fly around in Air Force One and so on. His fall from fantasy to reality is particularly far and painful...and self-inflicted. McCain never seemed deluded about the electoral realities...but then McCain had actual experience of hardship and loss.

I've no doubt that Romney felt he had a chance. I don't suspect he thought it was a GREAT chance. I think the same is likely with many of the talking heads and analysts. The confounded were more likely to be people like some of my dear co-workers (thanks for the wagers, you guys!)

/Love my co-workers. Good folks. Downright delusional at times, though.


It sounds like they were convinced they would win because the polls projecting an Obama win assumed turnout would be the same as 2008, and they intuitively beloved that because of the poor eceonomey Democratic turnout would be down.
 
2012-11-07 10:24:31 AM  

Esc7: 538 didn't get a single state wrong.

Not. A. Single. One.

I feel like I need to round up every single hack that wrote a hit piece on Nate Silver and force them to explain themselves.

Get ready for more pathetic excuses.


And Nate Silver only got Missouri wrong in 2008 because it was so close.

So 99 out of 100 in two cycles. One more and he achieves statistical significance!
 
2012-11-07 10:24:37 AM  
The signs were too subtle to detect 

www.postconsumers.com
 
2012-11-07 10:25:12 AM  

vernonFL: How many conservative pundits will lose their jobs?

Karl Rove should be fired along with Charles Krauthammer, George Will, Dick Morris, Joe Scarborough, and the entire Fox and Friends morning crew.


That would only happen if their audience realized that these people are serially incompetent and/or far too biased to be reliable.

Don't hold your breath.
 
2012-11-07 10:25:34 AM  

lemurs: Science and math defeated "gut feelings", and will continue to do so.

Forever.


Repeating. Because, sadly, it needs to be repeated.
 
2012-11-07 10:32:32 AM  
The right just spent a solid month attacking the fundamental mathematical rules that govern virtually every aspect of our being in this universe because those rules happened to disagree with the approved party line during the home stretch in this election.

I cannot even begin to imagine what insanity is about to ensue. We are talking about people who are attempting to undo the very fabric of our universe because the reality it weaves doesn't agree with them. Conservatives are not mentally stable or emotionally healthy people. This is only going to get uglier.
 
2012-11-07 10:32:44 AM  

vernonFL: How many conservative pundits will lose their jobs?

Karl Rove should be fired along with Charles Krauthammer, George Will, Dick Morris, Joe Scarborough, and the entire Fox and Friends morning crew.


They aren't peddling information they are peddling the psychology of winning that conservatives need as motivation. I bet if you did a study you would find conservatives are more apt to vote if they know they are going to win than if they believe they are going to possibly lose. It jives with the psychology of fighting for policy that helps the very rich at the expense of the poor and middle class.
 
2012-11-07 10:36:32 AM  

Skeptos: Esc7: I feel like I need to round up every single hack that wrote a hit piece on Nate Silver and force them to explain themselves.

Start with Jonah Goldberg, please.


Jonah Goldberg is a rip in reality. He's the platonic ideal of a Hack, and all Hacks subclass from him.

Seriously. Someone wrote an article disassembling him about how he's supposed to be one of their "new young republicans" but he's really in his 40s, and only has a mouthpiece because of his mother.

The worst part of Jonah Goldberg is his style, which is relentlessly cowardly. He never takes a stand on ANYTHING. His use of weasel words and ass coverings compose nearly 50% of his prose, which reads like a high school homework assignment. Often times you'll read a Jonah Goldberg article where there's not a single logical thought or point in it.

You best be sure he's at the top of my list.
 
2012-11-07 10:38:23 AM  
encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com

This guy owns a casino empire and lost $50 million dollars with bad bets this election

/Which to him is probably like losing $500.
 
2012-11-07 10:39:40 AM  
♫ Well your nobody called today
She hung up when I asked her name
Well, I wonder, does she think she's being clever? ♫
 
2012-11-07 10:41:47 AM  

Rann Xerox: BREAKING NEWS: Reince Priebus currently filling out applications at local Wal-Marts for the position of store greeter.


I think his callous, slurring invective at the RNC lost the election. So actually I don't think he is fit to be a greeter--he is too tea party callous.
 
2012-11-07 10:43:09 AM  
i301.photobucket.com
 
2012-11-07 10:48:09 AM  

GhostFish: The vindication of Nate Silver and the refutation of his critics should send a powerful message to the GOP.
You are not entitled to your own facts. Your feelings on a subject are a reflection of reality - not reality itself.
You should not tear someone down and ignore their analysis just because you don't like their results.


I really hope you're right...but i'm not sure the Republicans will be able to fix their internal problems.
 
2012-11-07 10:49:41 AM  
When Michael Steele said that I yelled, "Nate Silver & Sam Wang did!", which woke up my husband.
 
2012-11-07 10:56:20 AM  

Weaver95: GhostFish: The vindication of Nate Silver and the refutation of his critics should send a powerful message to the GOP.
You are not entitled to your own facts. Your feelings on a subject are a reflection of reality - not reality itself.
You should not tear someone down and ignore their analysis just because you don't like their results.

I really hope you're right...but i'm not sure the Republicans will be able to fix their internal problems.


Like I said last night, I'm making a fortune selling long knives on eBay.
 
2012-11-07 10:57:42 AM  

Relatively Obscure: Also, fivethirtyeight did an excellent job, but there WAS reason to hope (or dread), at least, that it might prove incorrect. It wasn't just a matter of "simple math." Still, his analyses helped me win a bet, so I'd hoist Mr. Silver on my shoulders if I could.


You shouldn't have any problems with that- after all, he's so thin and effeminate.
 
2012-11-07 11:00:33 AM  

Weaver95: I really hope you're right...but i'm not sure the Republicans will be able to fix their internal problems.


Well, considering the derposphere's current reaction is to continue derping exponentially until they somehow win, I wouldn't hold my breath.
 
2012-11-07 11:06:10 AM  

Weaver95: GhostFish: The vindication of Nate Silver and the refutation of his critics should send a powerful message to the GOP.
You are not entitled to your own facts. Your feelings on a subject are a reflection of reality - not reality itself.
You should not tear someone down and ignore their analysis just because you don't like their results.

I really hope you're right...but i'm not sure the Republicans will be able to fix their internal problems.


This. Confirmation bias exists to such a degree because it really is possible for people to fool even themselves to such a degree.

i.imgur.com 

Of course: nobody cheats death forever. And the conservatives have done such a good job of replacing the old white vote with their sensible opinions...

i301.photobucket.com

i301.photobucket.com

i301.photobucket.com

i301.photobucket.com
 
2012-11-07 11:07:21 AM  

Esc7: I feel like I need to round up every single hack that wrote a hit piece on Nate Silver and force them to explain themselves.


Librul bias in the media. The lamestream media told everyone 0bummer was winning so he did.

Some people continue to think belief defines reality as if 1984 was a how-to manual, not a warning.
 
2012-11-07 11:10:21 AM  

Hilarity_N_Sues: Relatively Obscure: Also, fivethirtyeight did an excellent job, but there WAS reason to hope (or dread), at least, that it might prove incorrect. It wasn't just a matter of "simple math." Still, his analyses helped me win a bet, so I'd hoist Mr. Silver on my shoulders if I could.

You shouldn't have any problems with that- after all, he's so thin and effeminate.


To be fair, Dean Chambers is the very model of masculinity.

talkingpointsmemo.com
 
2012-11-07 11:10:26 AM  

Mentat: Weaver95: GhostFish: The vindication of Nate Silver and the refutation of his critics should send a powerful message to the GOP.
You are not entitled to your own facts. Your feelings on a subject are a reflection of reality - not reality itself.
You should not tear someone down and ignore their analysis just because you don't like their results.

I really hope you're right...but i'm not sure the Republicans will be able to fix their internal problems.

Like I said last night, I'm making a fortune selling long knives on eBay.


You have no idea. My personal hope is that the extreme right wing gets custody rights to the name "Republican" and then goes sits in the corner of political irreverence while the sane conservatives move into the "Reality Party" with the Democrats and we have a spectrum of views collaborating instead of two polar opposities arguing.
 
2012-11-07 11:33:30 AM  

vernonFL: How many conservative pundits will lose their jobs?

Karl Rove should be fired along with Charles Krauthammer, George Will, Dick Morris, Joe Scarborough, and the entire Fox and Friends morning crew.


It really is time for these clownish children to retire. Their whole point later in the campaign was anti-Silver. Well, give them napkins, because they've been served.

For too long these Washington insiders (pundit version) have felt the need to try to control the message. The blogs are putting them to shame.

Guys, don't let the door hit you on your way out.
 
2012-11-07 11:33:41 AM  

Rann Xerox: BREAKING NEWS: Reince Priebus currently filling out applications at local Wal-Marts for the position of store greeter.


Didn't they get rid of that position?
 
2012-11-07 11:35:26 AM  

47 is the new 42: Rann Xerox: BREAKING NEWS: Reince Priebus currently filling out applications at local Wal-Marts for the position of store greeter.

Didn't they get rid of that position?


Don't tell Reince that. :-)
 
2012-11-07 11:58:06 AM  

Relatively Obscure: Hilarity_N_Sues: Relatively Obscure: Also, fivethirtyeight did an excellent job, but there WAS reason to hope (or dread), at least, that it might prove incorrect. It wasn't just a matter of "simple math." Still, his analyses helped me win a bet, so I'd hoist Mr. Silver on my shoulders if I could.

You shouldn't have any problems with that- after all, he's so thin and effeminate.

To be fair, Dean Chambers is the very model of masculinity.

[talkingpointsmemo.com image 300x300]


How can be so certain he is the 'very' model if you don't have what color and brand mobility chair scoots around in?
 
2012-11-07 12:21:57 PM  
lh6.googleusercontent.com

/I can only use this image for so long, so I might as well get my mileage out of it.
 
2012-11-07 12:26:57 PM  

Relatively Obscure: Also, fivethirtyeight did an excellent job, but there WAS reason to hope (or dread), at least, that it might prove incorrect. It wasn't just a matter of "simple math." Still, his analyses helped me win a bet, so I'd hoist Mr. Silver on my shoulders if I could.


Turns out it literally was.
 
2012-11-07 12:44:50 PM  
No one saw this coming? For school, my 10-year-old son researched the races. (We live in PA). He correctly called Barak Obama the winner in PA and on the electoral college. In fact, he picked 48 states correctly. (Had Romney in Colorado and Florida.) He correctly picked PA's U.S. Senate race and our local state Senatorial race.

He's TEN!, Mr. Steele
 
2012-11-07 01:29:05 PM  
videocafe.crooksandliars.com
 
2012-11-07 01:51:36 PM  

vernonFL: How many conservative pundits will lose their jobs?

Karl Rove should be fired along with Charles Krauthammer, George Will, Dick Morris, Joe Scarborough, and the entire Fox and Friends morning crew.


They should...but they won't. It's possible none of them will.
 
2012-11-07 02:52:44 PM  
From my facebook last night:

img685.imageshack.us
 
2012-11-07 03:51:26 PM  

vernonFL: [encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com image 148x225]

This guy owns a casino empire and lost $50 million dollars with bad bets this election

/Which to him is probably like losing $500.


As he is reportedly facing a federal investigation that he hoped that a President Romney would end, I suspect that his gamble was made out of desperation, rather than out of rationality.
 
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