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(Fark)   Here are the summary results of the Fark Electoral College Prediction Thread. See how you fit into the pack, and let's see if anyone can actually be declared a winner tonight (unlikely)   (fark.com) divider line 6
    More: Followup, decimals, TFers, Mittens  
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3043 clicks; posted to Politics » on 06 Nov 2012 at 1:35 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-06 02:03:46 PM  
2 votes:

DamnYankees: Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!


THIS IS VOTER SUPPRESSION
2012-11-06 12:35:41 PM  
2 votes:

BravadoGT: [i46.tinypic.com image 850x454]

Put your money on it. Or something very close.



I'll wager 400 quatloos on the newcomer...
2012-11-06 03:38:30 PM  
1 votes:

Jacobin: Half of you people are using medians. You should use math instead of fortune tellers


Last night I went to a fortune teller and tipped her $100. Then I punched her in the face, because I've always wanted to strike a happy medium.
2012-11-06 02:09:47 PM  
1 votes:

DamnYankees: tallguywithglasseson: day

Yeah. He's doing exactly what he accused Silver of - changing his predictions at the last minute to come in line with the polls.


For comparison:

Released October 25, 2012

The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race

The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 53.63 percent of the popular vote and 359 electoral votes to President Obama's 45.92 percent and 179 electoral votes.

QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats, and 30.0 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 130,955,000 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama.

Methodology: For EACH state, all of the following information was considered: results from the last four elections averaged together, recent political trends in that state (such as Republicans winning control of both houses of the state legislature in 2010 in Maine and New Hampshire), recent trends in demographic makeup that affect the politics of the state (such as the growth of hispanics in Colorado causing the Democratic Party to become more competitive), and the degree to which one or both of the major campaigns are targetting that state, such as both campaigns making Ohio the most important state and campaigning there more than any other state, and any other relevant political factors and data such as public polls from a variety of pollling firms, as well as data from the QStarNews polls of the presidential race. From all of this information a percentage breakdown of each state is calculated between Romney and Obama. This projection is expected to be spot-on accurate for predicting the outcome in all 50 states and the District of Columbia and close to the actual popular vote.

Perhaps some of the most surprising states to some will be the following:

Colorado: 54-45 Romney -- a suprise for many still expecting Obama to carry Colorado

Connecticut: 51-47 Obama -- closer than expected, and probably an indication that Linda McMahon wins the state's U.S. Senate seat

Florida: 54-46 Romney

Iowa: 54-46 Romney -- many don't expect this

Maine: 49-49 Obama -- much closer than expected

Michigan: 51-48 Romney -- the surprise of the night, Romney's home state ties are more key than Obama's claims to have "saved" the domestic auto industry

Nevada: 52-47 Romney -- this will surprise many

Minnesota: 51-47 Romney -- this will surprise many

New Hampshire: 53-46 Romney

New Jersey: 50-49 Obama -- much much closer than expected, the Romney campaign will re-allocate resources to New Jersey if they believe this number

New Mexico: 53-46 Romney -- most don't expect Romney to win New Mexico

Ohio: 54-46 Romney -- Late momentum and great ground game win the Buckeye state for Romney

Oregon: 52-46 Romney -- major surprise

Pennsylvania: 53-47 Romney -- big time upset

Washington: 51-49 Obama -- closer than expected
2012-11-06 02:06:26 PM  
1 votes:

Kyndig: Gotta say I hope Romney wins, just because the consternation and outrage here on Fark will be endlessly amusing to read.


Because the best reason to support a candidate is for the comments on a website.

Freeperland exploding is a nice bonus to an Obama win, but it's not a motivating factor.
2012-11-06 02:05:45 PM  
1 votes:

DamnYankees: Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!


BTW, I downloaded your spreadsheet and did a little analysis of my own. I'll keep score tonight too; filtering out people who can't win as we go. I'll see if I can predict the winner before you call the "election."

You about to be pundited.
 
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