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(Fark)   Here are the summary results of the Fark Electoral College Prediction Thread. See how you fit into the pack, and let's see if anyone can actually be declared a winner tonight (unlikely)   (fark.com) divider line 11
    More: Followup, decimals, TFers, Mittens  
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3041 clicks; posted to Politics » on 06 Nov 2012 at 1:35 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



Voting Results (Smartest)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest


Archived thread
2012-11-06 02:10:28 PM
2 votes:
s8.postimage.org
My Prediction
2012-11-06 03:21:52 PM
1 votes:

liverleef: Nearly everyone predicts Romney to win Kentucky. As a Kentuckian Obama supporter it really makes me feel like voting is just a symbolic gesture here.


Please vote, as it adds to Obama's total in the popular vote.

By the way, whoever wins this election, even by only the slimmest margin, even if he loses the popular vote and wins in the electoral college, will have a mandate. That's because the repubs have determined that any win is a mandate. Bush lost the popular vote but saw the election as a "mandate" to trash the economy and bumble into two disastrous wars. Romney will take a similar attitude. Obama had good taste to act as though his win in 2008 was a call to bipartisanship, and look where that got him. This go around he should take a win, no matter how slim, as an opportunity to force his programs down the reluctant throats of the GOP, slashing and burning his way through the red states if need be. Time to grow a pair, Barack, unless you want to be remembered as the most ineffectual president since Franklin Pierce.
2012-11-06 02:52:55 PM
1 votes:

liverleef: Nearly everyone predicts Romney to win Kentucky. As a Kentuckian Obama supporter it really makes me feel like voting is just a symbolic gesture here.


JohnnyApocalypse: never forget, there are other items on the ballot. your vote is never wasted

/if even for the cold comfort of having spoken :)


What JohnnyApocalypse said. Voted this AM; NY's deep, deep blue, but I so want to flip Romney the bird in the worst way.
2012-11-06 02:21:58 PM
1 votes:

ox45tallboy: qorkfiend: I will die laughing if the NH/CO scenario materializes and the election is over before Ohio, Virginia, or Florida are called.

I foresee shenanigans in Ohio. If Obama wins without Ohio, then the shenanigans will not be investigated and the evildoers will go unpunished. This will sadden me.


Well, yes, but that will happen regardless.

There's only three options:
Obama wins without Ohio, so it's moot and nothing is investigated.
Obama wins with Ohio, so the shenanigans were unsuccessful and nothing is investigated.
Romney wins with Ohio, so the shenanigans were successful and Romney is now president so nothing is investigated.
2012-11-06 02:09:47 PM
1 votes:

DamnYankees: tallguywithglasseson: day

Yeah. He's doing exactly what he accused Silver of - changing his predictions at the last minute to come in line with the polls.


For comparison:

Released October 25, 2012

The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race

The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 53.63 percent of the popular vote and 359 electoral votes to President Obama's 45.92 percent and 179 electoral votes.

QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats, and 30.0 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 130,955,000 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama.

Methodology: For EACH state, all of the following information was considered: results from the last four elections averaged together, recent political trends in that state (such as Republicans winning control of both houses of the state legislature in 2010 in Maine and New Hampshire), recent trends in demographic makeup that affect the politics of the state (such as the growth of hispanics in Colorado causing the Democratic Party to become more competitive), and the degree to which one or both of the major campaigns are targetting that state, such as both campaigns making Ohio the most important state and campaigning there more than any other state, and any other relevant political factors and data such as public polls from a variety of pollling firms, as well as data from the QStarNews polls of the presidential race. From all of this information a percentage breakdown of each state is calculated between Romney and Obama. This projection is expected to be spot-on accurate for predicting the outcome in all 50 states and the District of Columbia and close to the actual popular vote.

Perhaps some of the most surprising states to some will be the following:

Colorado: 54-45 Romney -- a suprise for many still expecting Obama to carry Colorado

Connecticut: 51-47 Obama -- closer than expected, and probably an indication that Linda McMahon wins the state's U.S. Senate seat

Florida: 54-46 Romney

Iowa: 54-46 Romney -- many don't expect this

Maine: 49-49 Obama -- much closer than expected

Michigan: 51-48 Romney -- the surprise of the night, Romney's home state ties are more key than Obama's claims to have "saved" the domestic auto industry

Nevada: 52-47 Romney -- this will surprise many

Minnesota: 51-47 Romney -- this will surprise many

New Hampshire: 53-46 Romney

New Jersey: 50-49 Obama -- much much closer than expected, the Romney campaign will re-allocate resources to New Jersey if they believe this number

New Mexico: 53-46 Romney -- most don't expect Romney to win New Mexico

Ohio: 54-46 Romney -- Late momentum and great ground game win the Buckeye state for Romney

Oregon: 52-46 Romney -- major surprise

Pennsylvania: 53-47 Romney -- big time upset

Washington: 51-49 Obama -- closer than expected
2012-11-06 02:08:52 PM
1 votes:
Ohio. If Obama wins Ohio, the election is his. Romney can't win without Ohio.
2012-11-06 02:06:26 PM
1 votes:

Kyndig: Gotta say I hope Romney wins, just because the consternation and outrage here on Fark will be endlessly amusing to read.


Because the best reason to support a candidate is for the comments on a website.

Freeperland exploding is a nice bonus to an Obama win, but it's not a motivating factor.
2012-11-06 01:46:01 PM
1 votes:
Hmm, I guess this is separate from the one Just Another OC Homeless Guy was running a few weeks ago? Wonder what happened to that.
2012-11-06 12:43:51 PM
1 votes:
I'm waiting until tomorrow to cast my prediction.
2012-11-06 12:21:06 PM
1 votes:
Link to Google Docs spreadsheet with all the predictions: Link
2012-11-06 10:33:14 AM
1 votes:
The election will be called by 11:30 and anyone that can do simple math will know it will be "over" by 10.
 
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