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(Fark)   Here are the summary results of the Fark Electoral College Prediction Thread. See how you fit into the pack, and let's see if anyone can actually be declared a winner tonight (unlikely)   (fark.com) divider line 125
    More: Followup, decimals, TFers, Mittens  
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3043 clicks; posted to Politics » on 06 Nov 2012 at 1:35 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

Archived thread
 
2012-11-06 10:31:50 AM

Thanks to everyone who participated in the predictions thread - as stated in that thread, winner gets a free month of TF. Given the sheer number of ties in the EV prediction, it's more than likely we won't know who wins this for a while when they finalize the PV count. I'll post the general stats here, and the full prediction in the next post.

ONGOING TALLY

Predictions: 210
Predictions of Obama Win: 90%

Median Obama EV: 303
Median Romney EV: 235
Mode Obama EV: 303
Mode Romney EV: 235
Mode as Percent of Total: 20%

Median Obama PV: 50.2
Median Romney PV: 48.6

Max Obama EV Prediction: 385
Max Obama PV Prediction: 54.3

Min Obama EV Prediction: 207
Min Obama PV Prediction: 46.5

Max Obama PV Spread: 8.6
Max Romney PV Spread: 8


OBAMA ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION

img.ctrlv.in

OBAMA MARGIN OF VICTORY DISTRIBUTION

img.ctrlv.in

(Doesn't include the one prediction of Romney by 8 for the sake of making the chart more readable).

 
2012-11-06 10:33:14 AM
The election will be called by 11:30 and anyone that can do simple math will know it will be "over" by 10.
 
2012-11-06 10:33:16 AM
And here are all the predictions in the form of User-Obama EV-RomneyEV-ObamaPV-RomneyPV:

3_Butt_Cheeks  257 281 47 50
5 star chef of tv dinners 293 245
Aarontology 332 206 50.6 48.5
aedude01  285 253
AkaDad  347 191 51.1 47.9
AlanSmithee 300 238 50.1 49.2
Allansfirebird   292 246 54.3 45.7
atlasdon  312 226 52.7 47
Atropos77 299 239 50.2 48.6
Bag of Hammers  306 232 49.9 48.1
Baryogenesis 303 235 50.5 48.7
bgilmore5   332 206
Bill Frist 294 244
BKITU 299 239 50.4 45.8
Bladel  303 235
blender61 313 225 51.3
Boxcutta  332 206
boxiebrown 332 206 51.1 48.6
Bruce Wayne's Actuary 332 206 52 47.2
bullwrinkle 285 253
Cagey B   332 206 51.3 47.6
Carn  303 235 51 48
CheetahOlivetti 303 235 50.6 48.4
cj1319 294 244 50.8 47.6
Clowns are a Ten  315 223 51 47
coeyagi  290 248
common sense is an oxymoron 305 233 50.7 47.9
Communist_Manifesto  303 235 49.5 49.5
Copperbelly watersnake  303 235 49.6 48.6
Corvus  303 235 50.5 48.2
Cosmic_Music  272 266
CPennypacker  286 252 50.4 48.2
croesius  290 248 49.2 48.4
cubicdissection  229 309
Cyberluddite 323 215 50.5 48.7
Dahnkster  306 232
DamnYankees 303 235 50.8 48.9
Darth Skywalker 302 236 51.3 48.5
DeArmondVI 286 252
dekkon 303 235 50.2 49.7
dennysgod   297 241
Diagonal  303 235
Dog Welder  332 206 47.8 47.2
Dogfacedgod   303 235 50.1 48.1
downstairs 269 269 50.2 48.9
doyner 303 235 50.1 48.3
DrD'isInfotainment  332 206
dugitman 290 248
dumbobruni  281 257 48.2 48.4
Earguy  288 250 52
efgeise 326 212
entitygm  272 266
epocalypse 332 206
Fido McCokefiend  332 206 50.6 48.8
FitzShivering 263 275 48.9 49.2
GardenWeasel  379 159
GAT_00  285 253 50.4 49.2
GeneralJim  222 316 46.5 54.5
Ghastly 268 270
gilgigamesh 303 235 49.7 49
Gonz  342 196 49.7 48.4
GoSlash27   294 244
Grand_Moff_Joseph 303 235 50.5 48.4
Hastor  290 248 48 47
hawcian   303 235 49.7 49.7
hdhale 249 289
hillbillypharmacist 290 248 49.8 47.4
HMS_Blinkin  323 215
Hollie Maea  303 235 50.4 48.6
hp6sa  269 269
hutchkc  303 235
hypocaffeinemia 281 257 50.2 48.3
I should be in the kitchen  332 206 50.8 46.6
I_C_Weener 267 271 48.4 48.9
I_Love_Cheesecake   332 206 50.3 48.7
I'm Yukon Cornelius 332 206 50.6 48.4
Imperialism  297 241 50.4 48.7
ivan  294 244
jonnyh  278 260 49.7 48.9
js34603   263 275 47.9 49.1
jst3p  309 229
jungleroy59 303 235 50.2
justabitdisturbed   283 255
kaedric  269 269
Kangacoyote  303 235 50.6 48.8
keithgabryelski 303 235 50.2 49.5
KellyX 294 244
Kevin72  332 206
KiTTeNs_on_AciD 271 267 49.9 48
kkinnison 290 248 49 48.1
Klivian  290 248 49.7 49.9
kmramki   332 206 50.6 48.4
krej55   270 268 49.5 48.9
KushanMadman  294 244 50.2 48.9
lennavan 318 220 49.2 48.7
Lionel Mandrake  303 235
Lligeret  295 243 49.6 49.6
Lord Dimwit 275 263
Lost Thought 00 303 235 51.5 46.5
Lukeonia1 304 234 50.7 48.2
mactheknife  281 257
maddermaxx   332 206 51.05 48.95
Magorn 313 225 52.16 47.84
Majick Thise 304 234 49.8 48
Man On A Mission 303 235
ManateeGag 290 248 49.5 48.1
Markus5   291 247 50.1 47.9
Maud Dib 294 244
MAX 385 331 52.5 51
mayIFark  290 248
MEDIAN 303 235 50.2 48.8
mikemoto 290 248
MIN 207 153 47.6 44.2
miss jinxed  313 225
MisterRonbo  284 254
MisterTweak 318 220
MisterTweak  318 220 51.5 47
MODE 303 235 50.2 48.1
ModernPrimitive01  303 235 50.8 48.9
moos   280 258
Mr_Fabulous   299 239 49 48.1
Mrbogey 265 273
mrmyxolodian  290 248 51.6 48.1
mrshowrules 284 254 49.5 48.5
Mrtraveler01 290 248 50.5 49.5
Muk_Man   303 235
nathanjr   290 248 49.5 48.2
neritz 310 228 50.9 48.2
nesler  332 206
NewWorldDan 272 266
nmrsnr  303 235 50.2 48.6
NobleHam  303 235 50.3 49.2
Nome de Plume   217 321 48 51
NOT a streetlight  347 191 50.9 49.2
NowhereMon  304 234 51 48
NuttierThanEver  304 234 50.4 48.1
NYCNative   281 257
onzmadi   277 261
organizmx  303 235
ORLY TITS 290 248
OtherLittleGuy 290 248 48.9 49.3
Outtaphase 313 225 50.4 48.1
ox45tallboy 312 226 49.9 49.6
Pappas  303 235 48.5 47.6
pciszek 332 206 50.6 48.5
pgh9fan   303 235
phaseolus   303 235 50.4 49.6
phritz 314 224 49.7 48.8
Pixiest  207 331
pmccall  277 261 50.3 48.9
President Raygun  290 248
propasaurus 305 233 50.6 48.5
qorkfiend 294 244 50.6 49.2
Radak  288 250 50.2 49.3
Retard Wrangler 275 263 49.8 50.2
robbiex0r 281 257 52 44.2
robrr2003  288 250 50.2 48.4
RumsfeldsReplacement  294 244
Rwa2play  332 206
RyogaM  281 257 49.6 48.1
SacriliciousBeerSwiller  369 169 52.5 46
saintstryfe  290 248
Sargun  303 235
Serious Black 385 153
sforce  275 263
Shirley Ujest   310 228
silo123j 359 179 52.2 46.3
skykid 303 235
SlothB77  265 273 48.2 48.8
smartaleq  294 244 49.4 49.4
Smelly McUgly 332 206 50.2 48.6
SnakeLee 270 268
solomonsnell 294 244 50.4 49.2
somedude210 332 206 50.2 48.4
Spanky McStupid  236 302
Stile4aly  303 235 50.5 49.1
stpauler  272 266 50.3 47.1
Straight to doom 299 239
sunspotter  294 244 49.5 49
TabASlotB 281 257 49.9 49.1
Tax Boy  269 269
Tea_tempest_Cup  278 260 49.1 48.4
Terlis 347 191 52.1 46.5
ThatBozGuy  303 235 51.8
ThatBozGuy  303 235
ThatGuyGreg 271 267 49.8 49.9
The Amazing Rando!  303 235 49.6 47.1
The Dreaded Rear Admiral 290 248 50.2 48.7
The Evil That Lies In The Hearts Of Men  332 206 50.6
The Fourth Karamazov  303 235 49.32 48.85
The Great EZE  303 235 50.2 48.6
TheCharmerUnderMe 328 210 50.5 48.8
ThePixies  347 191 51.5 47.8
thornhill  303 235 49.7 49.4
thoughtpol  332 206 50.1 48.6
timujin 341 197
tommylikewingy 290 248 49.8 49.1
torr5962  281 257 50.3
TrollingForColumbine  290 248
turddyferguson   319 219
Uberdeity   332 206 49.8 49.9
uksocal  332 206 50.3 49
Via Infinito  304 234
vonschiller 253 285 49 50.1
vpb 311 227
Waxing_Chewbacca 303 235
whistleridge 303 235 50.1 49.9
WombatControl  253 285 47.6 49.8
wooden_badger 282 256 49.5 50.4
WTF Indeed 332 206
xelnia  264 274 51.4 47.1
YouAreItNoTagBacks 291 247
ZangTT  328 210 51.2 48.8
zetar  332 206
 
2012-11-06 12:11:07 PM
Kewl.
 
2012-11-06 12:12:29 PM

WTF Indeed: The election will be called by 11:30 and anyone that can do simple math will know it will be "over" by 10.


This.
 
2012-11-06 12:16:55 PM
Is it too late to put in an entry?
 
I would like to submit potato.
 
2012-11-06 12:21:06 PM
Link to Google Docs spreadsheet with all the predictions: Link
 
2012-11-06 12:21:52 PM
I was told there would be no math.
 
2012-11-06 12:23:55 PM
i46.tinypic.com


Put your money on it. Or something very close.
 
2012-11-06 12:35:41 PM

BravadoGT: [i46.tinypic.com image 850x454]

Put your money on it. Or something very close.



I'll wager 400 quatloos on the newcomer...
 
2012-11-06 12:43:51 PM
I'm waiting until tomorrow to cast my prediction.
 
2012-11-06 12:48:39 PM

BravadoGT: [i46.tinypic.com image 850x454]

Put your money on it. Or something very close.


I'll bet you $10 to a handful of sand that you're full of shiat. Hell, I'll bet you $10 he doesn't take PA, WI, or OH. That's the biggest right-wing mastubatory fantasy that I've seen today, and I've seen a few. Even Unskewed doesn't double down on the derp that much.
 
2012-11-06 12:59:53 PM
Oh, wow. Dean Chambers from unskewed has really toned down the derp at the last minute.
Previous prediction I got from his site as of yesterday (not sure when he posted it)
Obama 227 (45.8)
Romney 311 (50.0)

Today
Obama 263 (48.88)
Romney 275 (50.67)

That's actually somewhat reasonable.
 
2012-11-06 01:00:48 PM

tallguywithglasseson: day


Yeah. He's doing exactly what he accused Silver of - changing his predictions at the last minute to come in line with the polls.
 
2012-11-06 01:05:06 PM

whistleridge: BravadoGT: [i46.tinypic.com image 850x454]

Put your money on it. Or something very close.

I'll bet you $10 to a handful of sand that you're full of shiat. Hell, I'll bet you $10 he doesn't take PA, WI, or OH. That's the biggest right-wing mastubatory fantasy that I've seen today, and I've seen a few. Even Unskewed doesn't double down on the derp that much.


yeah, like I said after, I uploaded the wrong map. The one I meant to has OH and PA going to Romney. But Romney still wins! And America is saved--for the moment.
 
2012-11-06 01:05:41 PM
Damn! I meant "OH and PA going to OBAMA"
 
2012-11-06 01:07:38 PM

DamnYankees: tallguywithglasseson: day

Yeah. He's doing exactly what he accused Silver of - changing his predictions at the last minute to come in line with the polls.


And Silver didn't take his analysis down to a close 50/50.

He couldn't if he wanted to anyway. That's not how mathematical models work.
 
2012-11-06 01:07:45 PM

DamnYankees: Yeah. He's doing exactly what he accused Silver of - changing his predictions at the last minute to come in line with the polls.


Right, except Silver's predictions change when the polls change, Chambers' predictions had very little to do with the actual polls until today... 

I'll admit, I'm kind of disappoint. Enjoyed the drunk-guy-in-the-bar-waving-around-a-broken-bottle style of predictions he had been using...
 
2012-11-06 01:08:28 PM
BTW, does anyone know the best place to find incoming vote counts and such as?
 
2012-11-06 01:10:25 PM

Wow. I guess I'm pretty average...

O EV

Mean 299.682243
Standard Error 1.848588268
Median 303
Mode 303

Standard Deviation 27.042515
Sample Variance 731.2976175
Kurtosis 1.963417578
Skewness -0.130789936
Range 178
Minimum 207
Maximum 385
Count 214
Confidence Level(95.0%) 3.643870344


O PV

Mean 50.18934783
Standard Error 0.09563709
Median 50.2
Mode 50.2

Standard Deviation 1.123481429
Sample Variance 1.26221052
Kurtosis 1.93132426
Skewness -0.159759896
Range 7.8
Minimum 46.5
Maximum 54.3
Count 138
Confidence Level(95.0%) 0.189115765
 

Pretty interesting to see that Obama is over 1 S.D. from losing according to Farkistan.
 
2012-11-06 01:15:22 PM

impaler: BTW, does anyone know the best place to find incoming vote counts and such as?


Here's the NYT page. Don't know if there's a better one out there: Link
 
2012-11-06 01:33:59 PM

impaler: BTW, does anyone know the best place to find incoming vote counts and such as?


does RealClearPolitics have an up-to-the-second tracker/ counter?
 
2012-11-06 01:40:18 PM
The Electoral College is adequate. The real problem is the tuition keeps rising.
 
2012-11-06 01:46:01 PM
Hmm, I guess this is separate from the one Just Another OC Homeless Guy was running a few weeks ago? Wonder what happened to that.
 
2012-11-06 01:48:27 PM
Obama 333 205 50.5 47.7
 
2012-11-06 01:49:18 PM
Ah, I'm not on the list. I guess I'll just have to see I was right on my own, and pat myself on my back if I was.
 
2012-11-06 01:50:03 PM

DamnYankees: Link to Google Docs spreadsheet with all the predictions: Link


Cool... I did not see this thread...

ECV
Obama - 295
Romney - 243

PV
Obama - 50.6
Romney - 49.4
 
2012-11-06 01:51:56 PM

thismomentinblackhistory: WTF Indeed: The election will be called by 11:30 and anyone that can do simple math will know it will be "over" by 10.

This.


A repeat of 2008? I'd be very ok with this.
 
2012-11-06 01:53:02 PM
This is great. Thanks! You have my Electoral numbers but I forgot %. 51.1 POTUS 48.6 Romney
 
2012-11-06 01:53:37 PM
Here's my guess

Obama 297
Romney 241
 
2012-11-06 01:56:52 PM

WTF Indeed: The election will be called by 11:30 and anyone that can do simple math will know it will be "over" by 10.


Concur.

I will die laughing if the NH/CO scenario materializes and the election is over before Ohio, Virginia, or Florida are called.
 
2012-11-06 01:58:56 PM
Oh there is a prize if I guess right? Well here goes

274 Romeny 49.8%
264 Obama 50.0%
 
2012-11-06 01:59:01 PM

qorkfiend: I will die laughing if the NH/CO scenario materializes and the election is over before Ohio, Virginia, or Florida are called.


I foresee shenanigans in Ohio. If Obama wins without Ohio, then the shenanigans will not be investigated and the evildoers will go unpunished. This will sadden me.
 
2012-11-06 02:00:05 PM
Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!
 
2012-11-06 02:00:44 PM

impaler: BTW, does anyone know the best place to find incoming vote counts and such as?


I believe Jon Husted has some neat new software in Ohio for that, but I've heard he's a real dick about sharing the source code.
 
2012-11-06 02:01:06 PM

DamnYankees: Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!


Why do you hate democracy??!?

/I keed
 
2012-11-06 02:01:38 PM
Gotta say I hope Romney wins, just because the consternation and outrage here on Fark will be endlessly amusing to read.
 
2012-11-06 02:01:46 PM

whistleridge: BravadoGT: [i46.tinypic.com image 850x454]

Put your money on it. Or something very close.

I'll bet you $10 to a handful of sand that you're full of shiat. Hell, I'll bet you $10 he doesn't take PA, WI, or OH. That's the biggest right-wing mastubatory fantasy that I've seen today, and I've seen a few. Even Unskewed doesn't double down on the derp that much.


The biggest fantasy there is Romney takes WI and doesn't take NH. If he is doing well enough to take WI, NH would already be in the bag.
 
2012-11-06 02:03:40 PM

WTF Indeed: The election will be called by 11:30 and anyone that can do simple math will know it will be "over" by 10.


hilarygardner.files.wordpress.com
 
2012-11-06 02:03:46 PM

DamnYankees: Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!


THIS IS VOTER SUPPRESSION
 
2012-11-06 02:05:45 PM

DamnYankees: Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!


BTW, I downloaded your spreadsheet and did a little analysis of my own. I'll keep score tonight too; filtering out people who can't win as we go. I'll see if I can predict the winner before you call the "election."

You about to be pundited.
 
2012-11-06 02:06:26 PM

Kyndig: Gotta say I hope Romney wins, just because the consternation and outrage here on Fark will be endlessly amusing to read.


Because the best reason to support a candidate is for the comments on a website.

Freeperland exploding is a nice bonus to an Obama win, but it's not a motivating factor.
 
2012-11-06 02:06:38 PM

qorkfiend: WTF Indeed: The election will be called by 11:30 and anyone that can do simple math will know it will be "over" by 10.

Concur.

I will die laughing if the NH/CO scenario materializes and the election is over before Ohio, Virginia, or Florida are called.


The magic number is 196 for Obama. If he's got that number (or more) on or before 11 ET rolls around, it's pretty much done.

IIRC he had 220 EVs at about 10:30 ET 4 years ago.
 
2012-11-06 02:08:48 PM

doyner: DamnYankees: Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!

BTW, I downloaded your spreadsheet and did a little analysis of my own. I'll keep score tonight too; filtering out people who can't win as we go. I'll see if I can predict the winner before you call the "election."

You about to be pundited.


Cool. Should be easy to figure out - if Obama loses FL or VA, something like half of the predictions will immediately be knocked out (as 303 and 332 will basically become impossible).
 
2012-11-06 02:08:52 PM
Ohio. If Obama wins Ohio, the election is his. Romney can't win without Ohio.
 
2012-11-06 02:09:47 PM

DamnYankees: tallguywithglasseson: day

Yeah. He's doing exactly what he accused Silver of - changing his predictions at the last minute to come in line with the polls.


For comparison:

Released October 25, 2012

The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race

The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 53.63 percent of the popular vote and 359 electoral votes to President Obama's 45.92 percent and 179 electoral votes.

QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats, and 30.0 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 130,955,000 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama.

Methodology: For EACH state, all of the following information was considered: results from the last four elections averaged together, recent political trends in that state (such as Republicans winning control of both houses of the state legislature in 2010 in Maine and New Hampshire), recent trends in demographic makeup that affect the politics of the state (such as the growth of hispanics in Colorado causing the Democratic Party to become more competitive), and the degree to which one or both of the major campaigns are targetting that state, such as both campaigns making Ohio the most important state and campaigning there more than any other state, and any other relevant political factors and data such as public polls from a variety of pollling firms, as well as data from the QStarNews polls of the presidential race. From all of this information a percentage breakdown of each state is calculated between Romney and Obama. This projection is expected to be spot-on accurate for predicting the outcome in all 50 states and the District of Columbia and close to the actual popular vote.

Perhaps some of the most surprising states to some will be the following:

Colorado: 54-45 Romney -- a suprise for many still expecting Obama to carry Colorado

Connecticut: 51-47 Obama -- closer than expected, and probably an indication that Linda McMahon wins the state's U.S. Senate seat

Florida: 54-46 Romney

Iowa: 54-46 Romney -- many don't expect this

Maine: 49-49 Obama -- much closer than expected

Michigan: 51-48 Romney -- the surprise of the night, Romney's home state ties are more key than Obama's claims to have "saved" the domestic auto industry

Nevada: 52-47 Romney -- this will surprise many

Minnesota: 51-47 Romney -- this will surprise many

New Hampshire: 53-46 Romney

New Jersey: 50-49 Obama -- much much closer than expected, the Romney campaign will re-allocate resources to New Jersey if they believe this number

New Mexico: 53-46 Romney -- most don't expect Romney to win New Mexico

Ohio: 54-46 Romney -- Late momentum and great ground game win the Buckeye state for Romney

Oregon: 52-46 Romney -- major surprise

Pennsylvania: 53-47 Romney -- big time upset

Washington: 51-49 Obama -- closer than expected
 
2012-11-06 02:10:28 PM
s8.postimage.org
My Prediction
 
2012-11-06 02:10:29 PM

CruiserTwelve: Ohio. If Obama wins Ohio, the election is his. Romney can't win without Ohio.


VA plays almost the same role. The chance of Romney winning without VA is really, really slim.
 
2012-11-06 02:10:53 PM

CruiserTwelve: Ohio. If Obama wins Ohio, the election is his. Romney can't win without Ohio.


Don't worry a recent software patch to their voting machines hotfixed the that bug.
 
2012-11-06 02:12:15 PM

DamnYankees: doyner: DamnYankees: Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!

BTW, I downloaded your spreadsheet and did a little analysis of my own. I'll keep score tonight too; filtering out people who can't win as we go. I'll see if I can predict the winner before you call the "election."

You about to be pundited.

Cool. Should be easy to figure out - if Obama loses FL or VA, something like half of the predictions will immediately be knocked out (as 303 and 332 will basically become impossible).


The trick will be in the PV numbers in that scenario. I'ma whip out my statisticals.
 
2012-11-06 02:13:37 PM

nmemkha: Don't worry a recent software patch to their voting machines hotfixed the that bug.


No, the voting machines are fine. They patched the tabulation computers.
 
2012-11-06 02:19:01 PM
I don't see my prediction on the list. I know that I was on the list before....

O: 319
R: 219
 
2012-11-06 02:20:07 PM

doyner: DamnYankees: doyner: DamnYankees: Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!

BTW, I downloaded your spreadsheet and did a little analysis of my own. I'll keep score tonight too; filtering out people who can't win as we go. I'll see if I can predict the winner before you call the "election."

You about to be pundited.

Cool. Should be easy to figure out - if Obama loses FL or VA, something like half of the predictions will immediately be knocked out (as 303 and 332 will basically become impossible).

The trick will be in the PV numbers in that scenario. I'ma whip out my statisticals.


I should have been on the list, I made my prediction probably 2-3 weeks ago.
 
2012-11-06 02:21:58 PM

ox45tallboy: qorkfiend: I will die laughing if the NH/CO scenario materializes and the election is over before Ohio, Virginia, or Florida are called.

I foresee shenanigans in Ohio. If Obama wins without Ohio, then the shenanigans will not be investigated and the evildoers will go unpunished. This will sadden me.


Well, yes, but that will happen regardless.

There's only three options:
Obama wins without Ohio, so it's moot and nothing is investigated.
Obama wins with Ohio, so the shenanigans were unsuccessful and nothing is investigated.
Romney wins with Ohio, so the shenanigans were successful and Romney is now president so nothing is investigated.
 
2012-11-06 02:35:04 PM
Nearly everyone predicts Romney to win Kentucky. As a Kentuckian Obama supporter it really makes me feel like voting is just a symbolic gesture here.
 
2012-11-06 02:43:59 PM

DamnYankees: And here are all the predictions in the form of User-Obama EV-RomneyEV-ObamaPV-RomneyPV:


You are awesome and stuff.

 
2012-11-06 02:45:03 PM

Maud Dib: DamnYankees: And here are all the predictions in the form of User-Obama EV-RomneyEV-ObamaPV-RomneyPV:


You are awesome and stuff.


Stupid tags
 
2012-11-06 02:46:40 PM
never forget, there are other items on the ballot. your vote is never wasted

/if even for the cold comfort of having spoken :)
 
2012-11-06 02:52:55 PM

liverleef: Nearly everyone predicts Romney to win Kentucky. As a Kentuckian Obama supporter it really makes me feel like voting is just a symbolic gesture here.


JohnnyApocalypse: never forget, there are other items on the ballot. your vote is never wasted

/if even for the cold comfort of having spoken :)


What JohnnyApocalypse said. Voted this AM; NY's deep, deep blue, but I so want to flip Romney the bird in the worst way.
 
2012-11-06 02:57:52 PM

DamnYankees: impaler: BTW, does anyone know the best place to find incoming vote counts and such as?

Here's the NYT page. Don't know if there's a better one out there: Link


Thanks.

It looks like New Hampshire, Virginia and North Carolina will be the first to indicate if there is some systematic bias in the state polls. They close the earliest while also having an abundant amount of recent polling.
 
2012-11-06 02:58:39 PM

impaler: It looks like New Hampshire, Virginia and North Carolina will be the first to indicate if there is some systematic bias in the state polls. They close the earliest while also having an abundant amount of recent polling.


Exactly right. NH will probably be the earliest to tell, since they are the smallest and will thus be able to get their full results quickest (I hope).
 
2012-11-06 03:12:56 PM
Damn, I missed that thread. Well, here's a map I posted last night in another thread:

24.media.tumblr.com

Popular vote, uh... Obama 51.1%, Romney 47.4%.
 
2012-11-06 03:15:44 PM
Half of you people are using medians. You should use math instead of fortune tellers
 
2012-11-06 03:15:58 PM
 
2012-11-06 03:19:55 PM
...crap, there was a thread on this and I missed it? Ah well, here's my prediction anyway:

i.imgur.com

MITTSLIDE. Deal with it, libs.
 
2012-11-06 03:21:52 PM

liverleef: Nearly everyone predicts Romney to win Kentucky. As a Kentuckian Obama supporter it really makes me feel like voting is just a symbolic gesture here.


Please vote, as it adds to Obama's total in the popular vote.

By the way, whoever wins this election, even by only the slimmest margin, even if he loses the popular vote and wins in the electoral college, will have a mandate. That's because the repubs have determined that any win is a mandate. Bush lost the popular vote but saw the election as a "mandate" to trash the economy and bumble into two disastrous wars. Romney will take a similar attitude. Obama had good taste to act as though his win in 2008 was a call to bipartisanship, and look where that got him. This go around he should take a win, no matter how slim, as an opportunity to force his programs down the reluctant throats of the GOP, slashing and burning his way through the red states if need be. Time to grow a pair, Barack, unless you want to be remembered as the most ineffectual president since Franklin Pierce.
 
2012-11-06 03:23:57 PM

jonnyh: Hope your prediction didn't require Obama winning Ohio.


Oh for fu...you know, it would be a Bush appointee ruling on that. Nope, no conflict of interest anywhere, there. How much you want to bet somebody gets sniffing around and finds out he has stock in ES&S?

Never mind updating software thus in the state of Ohio is facially illegal regardless of the nature of the update nor its consequences. Can't get that pesky "law" BS in the way.
 
2012-11-06 03:24:56 PM
i.imgur.com

Popular Projection = Obama 50.7%, Romney 48.6%. Florida can not finalize its total until tomorrow.
 
2012-11-06 03:25:44 PM

DamnYankees: Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!


I'm ok with this. But here are my guesses anyway..

271 Obama
267 Romney

49.9% Obama
48.7% Romney

/awesome idea
//and thanks for putting in the time to do this
///I'm a weatherman so I should have the best guesses, right?
 
2012-11-06 03:28:24 PM

clambam: Time to grow a pair, Barack, unless you want to be remembered as the most ineffectual president since Franklin Pierce.


What is your definition of ineffectual?
 
2012-11-06 03:31:38 PM
Are we still open for predictions?

Tonight's tally will be O 285, R 206. Florida will be still be too close to call at 03:00 Eastern/00:00 Pacific. So many voting irregularities will show up in Ohio that, after 2004, no network will call it tonight except Fox, who will have an O 285, R 224 map. Romney concedes the election nonetheless.

The tally by tomorrow afternoon will be O 314, R 206. Florida is within recount range, but the networks will call it for Obama.

Ohio will be locked up in the courts until December, but that doesn't matter. Husted will be sued from various angles but no one will end up punished; the OH Supreme Court will award the votes to Obama amid the Charlie Foxtrot. Ohio elects a full set of Democratic statewide officers in 2014 and becomes a near lock for the Dems in 2016.

PV: O 51.1%, R 48.5%, Others 0.4%.
 
2012-11-06 03:35:25 PM
Here are my guesses.

Obama 332 206

Obama 50.6 romney 48.2
 
2012-11-06 03:38:30 PM

Jacobin: Half of you people are using medians. You should use math instead of fortune tellers


Last night I went to a fortune teller and tipped her $100. Then I punched her in the face, because I've always wanted to strike a happy medium.
 
2012-11-06 03:38:39 PM
i177.photobucket.com

read 'em and weep libtards.

Deal with it.
 
2012-11-06 03:43:29 PM
I don't see my entry.

Obama: 197
Romney: 341
 
2012-11-06 03:45:57 PM
 
2012-11-06 04:01:26 PM
This would be the best map: Link

Romney wins OH, PA and WI and still loses.
 
2012-11-06 04:08:51 PM

BravadoGT: whistleridge: BravadoGT: [i46.tinypic.com image 850x454]

Put your money on it. Or something very close.

I'll bet you $10 to a handful of sand that you're full of shiat. Hell, I'll bet you $10 he doesn't take PA, WI, or OH. That's the biggest right-wing mastubatory fantasy that I've seen today, and I've seen a few. Even Unskewed doesn't double down on the derp that much.

yeah, like I said after, I uploaded the wrong map. The one I meant to has OH and PA going to Romney. But Romney still wins! And America is saved--for the moment.


Don't take this the wrong way, but...

1. I see no 'after' comment
2. I see no 'right' map
3. I notice a distinct trend this election cycle of folks from the right making big claims (GAS WILL HIT $5/GALLON BECAUSE OF QE3! ROMNEY WILL WIN BY 50EV! etc), but when you tell them ok, I'm down...let's bet on it, they duck. Fast.

So far, I would stand to make something like $1000 this year, if members of the right had been willing to let their wallets cash the checks their big mouths wrote. But no. It turns out, in the breach, hard stats actually DO matter more than what your pundit of choice says.

So again: I'm calling it 303-235, and not because of what Nate Silver says. And I'm comfortable putting a couple months' subscription up that says there's no way in hell Romney takes any swing state other than FL and NC. Are you down, or no?
 
2012-11-06 04:14:05 PM

BravadoGT: Damn! I meant "OH and PA going to OBAMA"


Just caught that. Forget the in-the-face of before, but I still think you're dreaming if you think Romney gets WI.
 
2012-11-06 04:24:31 PM

Abner Doon: Hmm, I guess this is separate from the one Just Another OC Homeless Guy was running a few weeks ago? Wonder what happened to that.


No one answered you, but I'd like the answer to that as well. Just Another OC Homeless Guy was pushing that one hard, across several threads. Then to see this one today, with no mention of him -- he's not even in the list of competitors! -- that doesn't sound right.

So what the fk happened? Was his idea stolen? or is he the alt of Damn Yankees?
 
MFL
2012-11-06 04:26:41 PM
My electoral projection for all of you libs.......


PAIN
 
2012-11-06 04:36:08 PM

ExperianScaresCthulhu: Abner Doon: Hmm, I guess this is separate from the one Just Another OC Homeless Guy was running a few weeks ago? Wonder what happened to that.

No one answered you, but I'd like the answer to that as well. Just Another OC Homeless Guy was pushing that one hard, across several threads. Then to see this one today, with no mention of him -- he's not even in the list of competitors! -- that doesn't sound right.

So what the fk happened? Was his idea stolen? or is he the alt of Damn Yankees?


Seems like the mods culled his reply to me. In short he got in trouble and had to kill it. Hopefully the mods will let that much through at least, I'm sure we're not the only ones wondering.
 
2012-11-06 04:37:35 PM
I'm still wondering if we'll have cases of unfaithful GOP electors cropping up, which will throw more of a wrench in the works for Rmoney (note that at least three GOP electors have threatened to throw in their vote for Ron Paul if Rmoney gets enough votes in their state, and only ONE of these is in a state where electors are required to follow what their state has nominated).

That would lead to an interesting constitutional crisis, as there have really been only three times a faithless elector crisis has occurred and none really able to swing an election since the 1830s (the 1872 faithless elector crisis was due to a Presidential candidate who died after ballots were printed but before the election, and the election was one of the few times a third party was actually influential in national politics post-Civil War). Of course, if Obama wins enough states, faithless electors who go for Paul over Romney are just salt in the wound at that point, but in a tight race it could have impact.

It's a tossup on whether a faithless GOP elector's vote would be counted as a de facto unpledged elector or a vote for Paul--i.e. whether it's going to be similar to what happened in Alabama in 1960 and 1964 (more on this below) or if it'd be like the scenario in the 1830s.

(This is, of course, also not counting the possibility that if enough votes get cast that we may have at least one non-GOP, non-Democratic elector. There is concern that Virgil Goode (running as the Constitution Party candidate) could get enough votes away from Romney in Virginia to throw the election clearly to Obama's favour, and if so, that's going to lead to Very Interesting Times In The Chinese Sense for the GOP in future--many of the state Conventions damn near copy the Constitution Party platform and dominionist leadership has been threatening to jump ship for years.)

The other Electoral College scenario that could have thrown an election fortunately didn't happen despite the Birthers' best efforts--a scenario where a state wouldn't have had Obama on the ballot at all, leading to a scenario similar to the last time a state refused to put a major party candidate on the ballot back in 1964 (specifically, in Alabama, where the mainline Democratic party candidate Lyndon B. Johnson didn't appear on the ballot; George Wallace (running for the Dixiecrats) was on the ballot instead, and the votes for Wallace pretty much functionally threw the (nationally counted) election to Goldwater as Wallace's electors were seen as de facto unpledged electors).

In fact, pretty much ALL of the modern cases of "unpledged electors" were from Southern Jim Crow states who were literally trying to be party-farkers, and it's from their sillybuggers why there's been a general turning away from the practice. It's also (methinks) NOT coincidence that ALL of the instances where "unpledged elector scenarios throwing a monkey-wrench into the works" and similar scenarios pretty much resulted from racism (from some of the interesting "exclusion of entire parties from the ticket" that occurred in the soon-to-be Confederacy before the Civil War to the "unpledged elector" scenarios that went on from the 40s-60s to the attempts to strike Obama from the ballot by "Birthers").
 
2012-11-06 04:39:02 PM

Abner Doon: ExperianScaresCthulhu: Abner Doon: Hmm, I guess this is separate from the one Just Another OC Homeless Guy was running a few weeks ago? Wonder what happened to that.

No one answered you, but I'd like the answer to that as well. Just Another OC Homeless Guy was pushing that one hard, across several threads. Then to see this one today, with no mention of him -- he's not even in the list of competitors! -- that doesn't sound right.

So what the fk happened? Was his idea stolen? or is he the alt of Damn Yankees?

Seems like the mods culled his reply to me. In short he got in trouble and had to kill it. Hopefully the mods will let that much through at least, I'm sure we're not the only ones wondering.


Jesus Christ... well, thank you for explaining. I'm happy to see your reply, before these, too, get deleted. :(

Doesn't pass the smell test, what happened. Looks like somebody wanted somebody who was 'sanctioned' to do it, since it got traction, and Just Another OC Homeless Guy is not 'sanctioned'. Have a good rest of your day, Abner Doon.
 
2012-11-06 05:10:25 PM
From the doyner Election Watch StudiosTM we have the following update...

According to exit polls the following Farkers have been eliminated from the competition:

MAX
Serious Black
GardenWeasel 
SacriliciousBeerSwiller 

209 of 213 entries remain.

Stay tuned for live updates throughout tonight's festivities.
 
2012-11-06 05:35:44 PM

DamnYankees: doyner: DamnYankees: Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!

BTW, I downloaded your spreadsheet and did a little analysis of my own. I'll keep score tonight too; filtering out people who can't win as we go. I'll see if I can predict the winner before you call the "election."

You about to be pundited.

Cool. Should be easy to figure out - if Obama loses FL or VA, something like half of the predictions will immediately be knocked out (as 303 and 332 will basically become impossible).


NO. 303 presumes Obama loses Florida and takes Colorado plus Virginia. 332 is that plus 29 for Florida.
 
2012-11-06 05:36:47 PM

Kevin72: NO. 303 presumes Obama loses Florida and takes Colorado plus Virginia. 332 is that plus 29 for Florida.


Yes, that's what I'm saying. If Obama loses FL, everyone who picked 332 will lose. If he loses VA, everyone who picked 303 will lose.
 
2012-11-06 05:38:40 PM

Kevin72:

NO. 303 presumes Obama loses Florida and takes Colorado plus Virginia. 332 is that plus 29 for Florida.


You've hung your hat on that but don't have a PV recorded. Good luck with that.
 
2012-11-06 05:40:35 PM
1.bp.blogspot.com

From a polling place in Philly. Just evil.
 
2012-11-06 05:40:37 PM
...and Virginia is the only 13. Hard to win if you get that wrong.
 
2012-11-06 05:41:50 PM

DamnYankees: [1.bp.blogspot.com image 500x373]

From a polling place in Philly. Just evil.


I love the font arrangement. So.... insidious.
 
2012-11-06 06:39:10 PM

RminusQ: Damn, I missed that thread. Well, here's a map I posted last night in another thread:

24.media.tumblr.com



I would like the record to show that I liked this prediction before you did and now that you like it it's no longer cool.
/hipster FTW
 
2012-11-06 06:54:19 PM
DY: Sent you Ultrafark email
 
2012-11-06 07:40:32 PM
Updates within 15 minutes. More losers to be announced!
 
2012-11-06 07:56:57 PM
From the doyner Election Watch StudiosTM we have the following update...

According to exit polls the following Farkers have been eliminated from the competition:

MAX
Serious Black
GardenWeasel 
SacriliciousBeerSwiller 
silo123j


208 of 213 entries remain.

Stay tuned for live updates throughout tonight's festivities.
 
2012-11-06 09:18:04 PM
Current ELIMINATED tally:

MAX
Serious Black
GardenWeasel 
SacriliciousBeerSwiller 
silo123j
GeneralJim 
Nome de Plume  
MIN
Pixiest
 
2012-11-06 09:18:54 PM

DamnYankees: This would be the best map: Link

Romney wins OH, PA and WI and still loses.


PA exit polls are still trending Obama at +5 last I heard. But there is the small matter of the voting machines, of course.
 
2012-11-06 09:34:12 PM
Updated list of losers:

MAX
Serious Black
GardenWeasel 
SacriliciousBeerSwiller 
silo123j
Spanky McStupid 
cubicdissection 
GeneralJim 
Nome de Plume  
MIN
Pixiest
 
2012-11-06 10:27:28 PM
Well, NH took me out of the running.
 
2012-11-06 10:34:25 PM
Out of the running:

MAX
Serious Black
GardenWeasel 
SacriliciousBeerSwiller 
silo123j
Spanky McStupid 
cubicdissection 
GeneralJim 
Nome de Plume  
MIN
Pixiest 

Charmer....almost.
 
2012-11-06 10:45:30 PM

doyner: Out of the running:

MAX
Serious Black
GardenWeasel 
SacriliciousBeerSwiller 
silo123j
Spanky McStupid 
cubicdissection 
GeneralJim 
Nome de Plume  
MIN
Pixiest 

Charmer....almost.


add hdhale to the list
 
2012-11-06 11:45:41 PM
Out:
MAX
Serious Black
GardenWeasel 
SacriliciousBeerSwiller 
silo123j
AkaDad 
NOT a streetlight 
Terlis
ThePixies 
Gonz 
timujin
Cosmic_Music 
entitygm 
NewWorldDan
stpauler 
KiTTeNs_on_AciD
ThatGuyGreg
krej55  
SnakeLee
downstairs
hp6sa 
kaedric 
Tax Boy 
Ghastly
I_C_Weener
Mrbogey
SlothB77 
xelnia 
FitzShivering
js34603  
3_Butt_Cheeks 
vonschiller
WombatControl 
hdhale
Spanky McStupid 
cubicdissection 
GeneralJim 
Nome de Plume  
MIN
Pixiest
 
2012-11-07 12:47:58 AM
Looking like it's between 303 and 332 at the moment, unless I missed some possibilities.

If it's 303, I called it on Oct. 18, woo me.
 
2012-11-07 12:56:11 AM

Abner Doon: Looking like it's between 303 and 332 at the moment, unless I missed some possibilities.

If it's 303, I called it on Oct. 18, woo me.


Florida's not called yet.
 
2012-11-07 01:05:10 AM

doyner: Abner Doon: Looking like it's between 303 and 332 at the moment, unless I missed some possibilities.

If it's 303, I called it on Oct. 18, woo me.

Florida's not called yet.


Ya, that's why I said 303 or 332, assuming my drunk ass can do simple math, which is probably not a great assumption.
 
2012-11-07 01:29:29 AM
Looks like you folks who picked 332 will be correct on the EV count. It'll probably take a few days to figure out the PV winner.
 
2012-11-07 01:33:30 AM

DamnYankees: Looks like you folks who picked 332 will be correct on the EV count. It'll probably take a few days to figure out the PV winner.


Yeah. I'll call my projected winner after they call VA and FL (EV and PV)
 
2012-11-07 01:35:52 AM
I said 303 with Florida being ridiculously close but going Obama at the end of the night.
 
2012-11-07 01:41:44 AM

DamnYankees: Looks like you folks who picked 332 will be correct on the EV count. It'll probably take a few days to figure out the PV winner.


Sweet! :)
 
2012-11-07 01:45:07 AM

Sargun: I said 303 with Florida being ridiculously close but going Obama at the end of the night.


In all seriousness, if Obama doesn't win Florida, but carries Virginia...I'm probably winning.
 
2012-11-07 01:50:08 AM

DamnYankees: Looks like you folks who picked 332 will be correct on the EV count. It'll probably take a few days to figure out the PV winner.


Uh! Yeah! Uh!

I hope the rest of the votes on the West Coast carry me over the top.
 
2012-11-07 02:28:08 AM
Flip the narrative. Virginia goes Obama, so now these are the Farkers still in the hunt:

Aarontology
bgilmore5  
Boxcutta 
boxiebrown
Bruce Wayne's Actuary
Cagey B  
Dog Welder 
DrD'isInfotainment 
epocalypse
Fido McCokefiend 
I should be in the kitchen 
I_Love_Cheesecake  
I'm Yukon Cornelius
Kevin72 
kmramki  
maddermaxx  
nesler 
pciszek
Rwa2play 
Smelly McUgly
somedude210
The Evil That Lies In The Hearts Of Men 
thoughtpol 
Uberdeity  
uksocal 
WTF Indeed
zetar 
TheCharmerUnderMe
ZangTT 
efgeise
Cyberluddite
HMS_Blinkin 
turddyferguson  
lennavan
MisterTweak
MisterTweak 
Clowns are a Ten 
phritz
blender61
Magorn
miss jinxed 
Outtaphase
atlasdon 
ox45tallboy
vpb
neritz
Shirley Ujest  
jst3p 
Bag of Hammers 
Dahnkster 
common sense is an oxymoron
propasaurus
Lukeonia1
Majick Thise
NowhereMon 
NuttierThanEver 
Via Infinito 
Baryogenesis
Bladel 
Carn 
CheetahOlivetti
Communist_Manifesto 
Copperbelly watersnake 
Corvus 
DamnYankees
dekkon
Diagonal 
Dogfacedgod  
doyner
gilgigamesh
Grand_Moff_Joseph
hawcian  
Hollie Maea 
hutchkc 
jungleroy59
Kangacoyote 
keithgabryelski
Lionel Mandrake 
Lost Thought 00
Man On A Mission
MEDIAN
MODE
ModernPrimitive01 
Muk_Man  
nmrsnr 
NobleHam 
organizmx 
Pappas 
pgh9fan  
phaseolus  
Sargun 
skykid
Stile4aly 
ThatBozGuy 
ThatBozGuy 
The Amazing Rando! 
The Fourth Karamazov 
The Great EZE 
thornhill 
Waxing_Chewbacca
whistleridge
 
2012-11-07 03:07:16 AM
As we await Florida, these are the last of the eligibles, but the PV will cull the herd even more.

Aarontology
boxiebrown
Bruce Wayne's Actuary
Cagey B
Dog Welder
Fido McCokefiend
I should be in the kitchen
I_Love_Cheesecake
I'm Yukon Cornelius
kmramki
maddermaxx
pciszek
Smelly McUgly
somedude210
thoughtpol
Uberdeity
uksocal
Baryogenesis
Carn
CheetahOlivetti
Communist_Manifesto
Copperbelly watersnake
Corvus
DamnYankees
dekkon
Dogfacedgod
doyner
gilgigamesh
Grand_Moff_Joseph
hawcian
Hollie Maea
Kangacoyote
keithgabryelski
Lost Thought 00
MEDIAN
MODE
ModernPrimitive01
nmrsnr
NobleHam
Pappas
phaseolus
Stile4aly
The Amazing Rando!
The Fourth Karamazov
The Great EZE
thornhill
whistleridge
 
2012-11-07 11:05:22 AM

doyner: As we await Florida, these are the last of the eligibles, but the PV will cull the herd even more.

Aarontology
boxiebrown
Bruce Wayne's Actuary
Cagey B
Dog Welder
Fido McCokefiend
I should be in the kitchen
I_Love_Cheesecake
I'm Yukon Cornelius
kmramki
maddermaxx
pciszek
Smelly McUgly
somedude210
thoughtpol
Uberdeity
uksocal
Baryogenesis
Carn
CheetahOlivetti
Communist_Manifesto
Copperbelly watersnake
Corvus
DamnYankees
dekkon
Dogfacedgod
doyner
gilgigamesh
Grand_Moff_Joseph
hawcian
Hollie Maea
Kangacoyote
keithgabryelski
Lost Thought 00
MEDIAN
MODE
ModernPrimitive01
nmrsnr
NobleHam
Pappas
phaseolus
Stile4aly
The Amazing Rando!
The Fourth Karamazov
The Great EZE
thornhill
whistleridge


Why no love for my call?
 
2012-11-07 02:43:22 PM

The Evil That Lies In The Hearts Of Men: doyner: As we await Florida, these are the last of the eligibles, but the PV will cull the herd even more.

Aarontology
boxiebrown
Bruce Wayne's Actuary
Cagey B
Dog Welder
Fido McCokefiend
I should be in the kitchen
I_Love_Cheesecake
I'm Yukon Cornelius
kmramki
maddermaxx
pciszek
Smelly McUgly
somedude210
thoughtpol
Uberdeity
uksocal
Baryogenesis
Carn
CheetahOlivetti
Communist_Manifesto
Copperbelly watersnake
Corvus
DamnYankees
dekkon
Dogfacedgod
doyner
gilgigamesh
Grand_Moff_Joseph
hawcian
Hollie Maea
Kangacoyote
keithgabryelski
Lost Thought 00
MEDIAN
MODE
ModernPrimitive01
nmrsnr
NobleHam
Pappas
phaseolus
Stile4aly
The Amazing Rando!
The Fourth Karamazov
The Great EZE
thornhill
whistleridge
The Evil That Lies In The Hearts Of Men

Why no love for my call?


Sorry. But I will saythat it will be hard since the spreadsheet didn't have a Romney PV %.
 
2012-11-07 03:57:44 PM
...and still we wait for FL....
 
2012-11-07 04:05:16 PM

Grand_Moff_Joseph: ...and still we wait for FL....


Yup. I'm slowly tabulating the PVs by state, so we'll be able to eliminate a bunch of folks soon.
 
2012-11-07 04:54:17 PM
Current EV tally: Obama 303, Romney 206
Current PV tally: Obama 50.81784%, Romney 47.62207%, Other: 1.56007%

Current list of eligibles:

Farker O EV R EV O POP R POP 3rd party vote
Aarontology 332 206 50.6 48.5 0.9
Cagey B 332 206 51.3 47.6 1.1 Favored to win
I'm Yukon Cornelius 332 206 50.6 48.4 1
kmramki 332 206 50.6 48.4 1
pciszek 332 206 50.6 48.5 0.9
Carn 303 235 51 48 1 
CheetahOlivetti 303 235 50.6 48.4 1
Corvus 303 235 50.5 48.2 1.3 
Grand_Moff_Joseph 303 235 50.5 48.4 1.1
 
2012-11-08 05:49:50 PM
Good news: Romney concedes FL.
Bad news: I'm out of the running here. :(
 
2012-11-08 05:57:04 PM

Grand_Moff_Joseph: Good news: Romney concedes FL.
Bad news: I'm out of the running here. :(


That leaves:

Aarontology
Cagey B  
I'm Yukon Cornelius
kmramki  
pciszek


Recalculating....
 
2012-11-08 06:01:49 PM

doyner: Grand_Moff_Joseph: Good news: Romney concedes FL.
Bad news: I'm out of the running here. :(

That leaves:

Aarontology
Cagey B  
I'm Yukon Cornelius
kmramki  
pciszek


Recalculating....


Uh oh, a Garmin GPS has hijacked your account! :D

/recalculating
 
2012-11-08 06:05:59 PM
...And Cagey B farking NAILED it.
 
2012-11-08 06:09:33 PM
Cagey B   332 206 51.3 47.6 1.1

Actual 332 206 51.26 47.62 1.5

At 6:05 PM, 8 November doyner calls the contest for Cagey B. This is not official, DamnYankees is the final arbiter.
 
2012-11-09 06:30:00 PM

doyner: ...And Cagey B farking NAILED it.


Bow to your new Politics Tab overlord, Farkers.

If there's any justice in the world, there will now be Free Republic and TownHall stories about how I rigged the election.
 
2012-11-09 07:56:22 PM

Cagey B: doyner: ...And Cagey B farking NAILED it.

Bow to your new Politics Tab overlord, Farkers.

If there's any justice in the world, there will now be Free Republic and TownHall stories about how I rigged the election.


No one bows until DY bestows TF upon your shoulders.
 
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