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(Fark)   Here are the summary results of the Fark Electoral College Prediction Thread. See how you fit into the pack, and let's see if anyone can actually be declared a winner tonight (unlikely)   (fark.com) divider line 125
    More: Followup, decimals, TFers, Mittens  
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3043 clicks; posted to Politics » on 06 Nov 2012 at 1:35 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-06 02:13:37 PM

nmemkha: Don't worry a recent software patch to their voting machines hotfixed the that bug.


No, the voting machines are fine. They patched the tabulation computers.
 
2012-11-06 02:19:01 PM
I don't see my prediction on the list. I know that I was on the list before....

O: 319
R: 219
 
2012-11-06 02:20:07 PM

doyner: DamnYankees: doyner: DamnYankees: Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!

BTW, I downloaded your spreadsheet and did a little analysis of my own. I'll keep score tonight too; filtering out people who can't win as we go. I'll see if I can predict the winner before you call the "election."

You about to be pundited.

Cool. Should be easy to figure out - if Obama loses FL or VA, something like half of the predictions will immediately be knocked out (as 303 and 332 will basically become impossible).

The trick will be in the PV numbers in that scenario. I'ma whip out my statisticals.


I should have been on the list, I made my prediction probably 2-3 weeks ago.
 
2012-11-06 02:21:58 PM

ox45tallboy: qorkfiend: I will die laughing if the NH/CO scenario materializes and the election is over before Ohio, Virginia, or Florida are called.

I foresee shenanigans in Ohio. If Obama wins without Ohio, then the shenanigans will not be investigated and the evildoers will go unpunished. This will sadden me.


Well, yes, but that will happen regardless.

There's only three options:
Obama wins without Ohio, so it's moot and nothing is investigated.
Obama wins with Ohio, so the shenanigans were unsuccessful and nothing is investigated.
Romney wins with Ohio, so the shenanigans were successful and Romney is now president so nothing is investigated.
 
2012-11-06 02:35:04 PM
Nearly everyone predicts Romney to win Kentucky. As a Kentuckian Obama supporter it really makes me feel like voting is just a symbolic gesture here.
 
2012-11-06 02:43:59 PM

DamnYankees: And here are all the predictions in the form of User-Obama EV-RomneyEV-ObamaPV-RomneyPV:


You are awesome and stuff.

 
2012-11-06 02:45:03 PM

Maud Dib: DamnYankees: And here are all the predictions in the form of User-Obama EV-RomneyEV-ObamaPV-RomneyPV:


You are awesome and stuff.


Stupid tags
 
2012-11-06 02:46:40 PM
never forget, there are other items on the ballot. your vote is never wasted

/if even for the cold comfort of having spoken :)
 
2012-11-06 02:52:55 PM

liverleef: Nearly everyone predicts Romney to win Kentucky. As a Kentuckian Obama supporter it really makes me feel like voting is just a symbolic gesture here.


JohnnyApocalypse: never forget, there are other items on the ballot. your vote is never wasted

/if even for the cold comfort of having spoken :)


What JohnnyApocalypse said. Voted this AM; NY's deep, deep blue, but I so want to flip Romney the bird in the worst way.
 
2012-11-06 02:57:52 PM

DamnYankees: impaler: BTW, does anyone know the best place to find incoming vote counts and such as?

Here's the NYT page. Don't know if there's a better one out there: Link


Thanks.

It looks like New Hampshire, Virginia and North Carolina will be the first to indicate if there is some systematic bias in the state polls. They close the earliest while also having an abundant amount of recent polling.
 
2012-11-06 02:58:39 PM

impaler: It looks like New Hampshire, Virginia and North Carolina will be the first to indicate if there is some systematic bias in the state polls. They close the earliest while also having an abundant amount of recent polling.


Exactly right. NH will probably be the earliest to tell, since they are the smallest and will thus be able to get their full results quickest (I hope).
 
2012-11-06 03:12:56 PM
Damn, I missed that thread. Well, here's a map I posted last night in another thread:

24.media.tumblr.com

Popular vote, uh... Obama 51.1%, Romney 47.4%.
 
2012-11-06 03:15:44 PM
Half of you people are using medians. You should use math instead of fortune tellers
 
2012-11-06 03:15:58 PM
 
2012-11-06 03:19:55 PM
...crap, there was a thread on this and I missed it? Ah well, here's my prediction anyway:

i.imgur.com

MITTSLIDE. Deal with it, libs.
 
2012-11-06 03:21:52 PM

liverleef: Nearly everyone predicts Romney to win Kentucky. As a Kentuckian Obama supporter it really makes me feel like voting is just a symbolic gesture here.


Please vote, as it adds to Obama's total in the popular vote.

By the way, whoever wins this election, even by only the slimmest margin, even if he loses the popular vote and wins in the electoral college, will have a mandate. That's because the repubs have determined that any win is a mandate. Bush lost the popular vote but saw the election as a "mandate" to trash the economy and bumble into two disastrous wars. Romney will take a similar attitude. Obama had good taste to act as though his win in 2008 was a call to bipartisanship, and look where that got him. This go around he should take a win, no matter how slim, as an opportunity to force his programs down the reluctant throats of the GOP, slashing and burning his way through the red states if need be. Time to grow a pair, Barack, unless you want to be remembered as the most ineffectual president since Franklin Pierce.
 
2012-11-06 03:23:57 PM

jonnyh: Hope your prediction didn't require Obama winning Ohio.


Oh for fu...you know, it would be a Bush appointee ruling on that. Nope, no conflict of interest anywhere, there. How much you want to bet somebody gets sniffing around and finds out he has stock in ES&S?

Never mind updating software thus in the state of Ohio is facially illegal regardless of the nature of the update nor its consequences. Can't get that pesky "law" BS in the way.
 
2012-11-06 03:24:56 PM
i.imgur.com

Popular Projection = Obama 50.7%, Romney 48.6%. Florida can not finalize its total until tomorrow.
 
2012-11-06 03:25:44 PM

DamnYankees: Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!


I'm ok with this. But here are my guesses anyway..

271 Obama
267 Romney

49.9% Obama
48.7% Romney

/awesome idea
//and thanks for putting in the time to do this
///I'm a weatherman so I should have the best guesses, right?
 
2012-11-06 03:28:24 PM

clambam: Time to grow a pair, Barack, unless you want to be remembered as the most ineffectual president since Franklin Pierce.


What is your definition of ineffectual?
 
2012-11-06 03:31:38 PM
Are we still open for predictions?

Tonight's tally will be O 285, R 206. Florida will be still be too close to call at 03:00 Eastern/00:00 Pacific. So many voting irregularities will show up in Ohio that, after 2004, no network will call it tonight except Fox, who will have an O 285, R 224 map. Romney concedes the election nonetheless.

The tally by tomorrow afternoon will be O 314, R 206. Florida is within recount range, but the networks will call it for Obama.

Ohio will be locked up in the courts until December, but that doesn't matter. Husted will be sued from various angles but no one will end up punished; the OH Supreme Court will award the votes to Obama amid the Charlie Foxtrot. Ohio elects a full set of Democratic statewide officers in 2014 and becomes a near lock for the Dems in 2016.

PV: O 51.1%, R 48.5%, Others 0.4%.
 
2012-11-06 03:35:25 PM
Here are my guesses.

Obama 332 206

Obama 50.6 romney 48.2
 
2012-11-06 03:38:30 PM

Jacobin: Half of you people are using medians. You should use math instead of fortune tellers


Last night I went to a fortune teller and tipped her $100. Then I punched her in the face, because I've always wanted to strike a happy medium.
 
2012-11-06 03:38:39 PM
i177.photobucket.com

read 'em and weep libtards.

Deal with it.
 
2012-11-06 03:43:29 PM
I don't see my entry.

Obama: 197
Romney: 341
 
2012-11-06 03:45:57 PM
 
2012-11-06 04:01:26 PM
This would be the best map: Link

Romney wins OH, PA and WI and still loses.
 
2012-11-06 04:08:51 PM

BravadoGT: whistleridge: BravadoGT: [i46.tinypic.com image 850x454]

Put your money on it. Or something very close.

I'll bet you $10 to a handful of sand that you're full of shiat. Hell, I'll bet you $10 he doesn't take PA, WI, or OH. That's the biggest right-wing mastubatory fantasy that I've seen today, and I've seen a few. Even Unskewed doesn't double down on the derp that much.

yeah, like I said after, I uploaded the wrong map. The one I meant to has OH and PA going to Romney. But Romney still wins! And America is saved--for the moment.


Don't take this the wrong way, but...

1. I see no 'after' comment
2. I see no 'right' map
3. I notice a distinct trend this election cycle of folks from the right making big claims (GAS WILL HIT $5/GALLON BECAUSE OF QE3! ROMNEY WILL WIN BY 50EV! etc), but when you tell them ok, I'm down...let's bet on it, they duck. Fast.

So far, I would stand to make something like $1000 this year, if members of the right had been willing to let their wallets cash the checks their big mouths wrote. But no. It turns out, in the breach, hard stats actually DO matter more than what your pundit of choice says.

So again: I'm calling it 303-235, and not because of what Nate Silver says. And I'm comfortable putting a couple months' subscription up that says there's no way in hell Romney takes any swing state other than FL and NC. Are you down, or no?
 
2012-11-06 04:14:05 PM

BravadoGT: Damn! I meant "OH and PA going to OBAMA"


Just caught that. Forget the in-the-face of before, but I still think you're dreaming if you think Romney gets WI.
 
2012-11-06 04:24:31 PM

Abner Doon: Hmm, I guess this is separate from the one Just Another OC Homeless Guy was running a few weeks ago? Wonder what happened to that.


No one answered you, but I'd like the answer to that as well. Just Another OC Homeless Guy was pushing that one hard, across several threads. Then to see this one today, with no mention of him -- he's not even in the list of competitors! -- that doesn't sound right.

So what the fk happened? Was his idea stolen? or is he the alt of Damn Yankees?
 
MFL
2012-11-06 04:26:41 PM
My electoral projection for all of you libs.......


PAIN
 
2012-11-06 04:36:08 PM

ExperianScaresCthulhu: Abner Doon: Hmm, I guess this is separate from the one Just Another OC Homeless Guy was running a few weeks ago? Wonder what happened to that.

No one answered you, but I'd like the answer to that as well. Just Another OC Homeless Guy was pushing that one hard, across several threads. Then to see this one today, with no mention of him -- he's not even in the list of competitors! -- that doesn't sound right.

So what the fk happened? Was his idea stolen? or is he the alt of Damn Yankees?


Seems like the mods culled his reply to me. In short he got in trouble and had to kill it. Hopefully the mods will let that much through at least, I'm sure we're not the only ones wondering.
 
2012-11-06 04:37:35 PM
I'm still wondering if we'll have cases of unfaithful GOP electors cropping up, which will throw more of a wrench in the works for Rmoney (note that at least three GOP electors have threatened to throw in their vote for Ron Paul if Rmoney gets enough votes in their state, and only ONE of these is in a state where electors are required to follow what their state has nominated).

That would lead to an interesting constitutional crisis, as there have really been only three times a faithless elector crisis has occurred and none really able to swing an election since the 1830s (the 1872 faithless elector crisis was due to a Presidential candidate who died after ballots were printed but before the election, and the election was one of the few times a third party was actually influential in national politics post-Civil War). Of course, if Obama wins enough states, faithless electors who go for Paul over Romney are just salt in the wound at that point, but in a tight race it could have impact.

It's a tossup on whether a faithless GOP elector's vote would be counted as a de facto unpledged elector or a vote for Paul--i.e. whether it's going to be similar to what happened in Alabama in 1960 and 1964 (more on this below) or if it'd be like the scenario in the 1830s.

(This is, of course, also not counting the possibility that if enough votes get cast that we may have at least one non-GOP, non-Democratic elector. There is concern that Virgil Goode (running as the Constitution Party candidate) could get enough votes away from Romney in Virginia to throw the election clearly to Obama's favour, and if so, that's going to lead to Very Interesting Times In The Chinese Sense for the GOP in future--many of the state Conventions damn near copy the Constitution Party platform and dominionist leadership has been threatening to jump ship for years.)

The other Electoral College scenario that could have thrown an election fortunately didn't happen despite the Birthers' best efforts--a scenario where a state wouldn't have had Obama on the ballot at all, leading to a scenario similar to the last time a state refused to put a major party candidate on the ballot back in 1964 (specifically, in Alabama, where the mainline Democratic party candidate Lyndon B. Johnson didn't appear on the ballot; George Wallace (running for the Dixiecrats) was on the ballot instead, and the votes for Wallace pretty much functionally threw the (nationally counted) election to Goldwater as Wallace's electors were seen as de facto unpledged electors).

In fact, pretty much ALL of the modern cases of "unpledged electors" were from Southern Jim Crow states who were literally trying to be party-farkers, and it's from their sillybuggers why there's been a general turning away from the practice. It's also (methinks) NOT coincidence that ALL of the instances where "unpledged elector scenarios throwing a monkey-wrench into the works" and similar scenarios pretty much resulted from racism (from some of the interesting "exclusion of entire parties from the ticket" that occurred in the soon-to-be Confederacy before the Civil War to the "unpledged elector" scenarios that went on from the 40s-60s to the attempts to strike Obama from the ballot by "Birthers").
 
2012-11-06 04:39:02 PM

Abner Doon: ExperianScaresCthulhu: Abner Doon: Hmm, I guess this is separate from the one Just Another OC Homeless Guy was running a few weeks ago? Wonder what happened to that.

No one answered you, but I'd like the answer to that as well. Just Another OC Homeless Guy was pushing that one hard, across several threads. Then to see this one today, with no mention of him -- he's not even in the list of competitors! -- that doesn't sound right.

So what the fk happened? Was his idea stolen? or is he the alt of Damn Yankees?

Seems like the mods culled his reply to me. In short he got in trouble and had to kill it. Hopefully the mods will let that much through at least, I'm sure we're not the only ones wondering.


Jesus Christ... well, thank you for explaining. I'm happy to see your reply, before these, too, get deleted. :(

Doesn't pass the smell test, what happened. Looks like somebody wanted somebody who was 'sanctioned' to do it, since it got traction, and Just Another OC Homeless Guy is not 'sanctioned'. Have a good rest of your day, Abner Doon.
 
2012-11-06 05:10:25 PM
From the doyner Election Watch StudiosTM we have the following update...

According to exit polls the following Farkers have been eliminated from the competition:

MAX
Serious Black
GardenWeasel 
SacriliciousBeerSwiller 

209 of 213 entries remain.

Stay tuned for live updates throughout tonight's festivities.
 
2012-11-06 05:35:44 PM

DamnYankees: doyner: DamnYankees: Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!

BTW, I downloaded your spreadsheet and did a little analysis of my own. I'll keep score tonight too; filtering out people who can't win as we go. I'll see if I can predict the winner before you call the "election."

You about to be pundited.

Cool. Should be easy to figure out - if Obama loses FL or VA, something like half of the predictions will immediately be knocked out (as 303 and 332 will basically become impossible).


NO. 303 presumes Obama loses Florida and takes Colorado plus Virginia. 332 is that plus 29 for Florida.
 
2012-11-06 05:36:47 PM

Kevin72: NO. 303 presumes Obama loses Florida and takes Colorado plus Virginia. 332 is that plus 29 for Florida.


Yes, that's what I'm saying. If Obama loses FL, everyone who picked 332 will lose. If he loses VA, everyone who picked 303 will lose.
 
2012-11-06 05:38:40 PM

Kevin72:

NO. 303 presumes Obama loses Florida and takes Colorado plus Virginia. 332 is that plus 29 for Florida.


You've hung your hat on that but don't have a PV recorded. Good luck with that.
 
2012-11-06 05:40:35 PM
1.bp.blogspot.com

From a polling place in Philly. Just evil.
 
2012-11-06 05:40:37 PM
...and Virginia is the only 13. Hard to win if you get that wrong.
 
2012-11-06 05:41:50 PM

DamnYankees: [1.bp.blogspot.com image 500x373]

From a polling place in Philly. Just evil.


I love the font arrangement. So.... insidious.
 
2012-11-06 06:39:10 PM

RminusQ: Damn, I missed that thread. Well, here's a map I posted last night in another thread:

24.media.tumblr.com



I would like the record to show that I liked this prediction before you did and now that you like it it's no longer cool.
/hipster FTW
 
2012-11-06 06:54:19 PM
DY: Sent you Ultrafark email
 
2012-11-06 07:40:32 PM
Updates within 15 minutes. More losers to be announced!
 
2012-11-06 07:56:57 PM
From the doyner Election Watch StudiosTM we have the following update...

According to exit polls the following Farkers have been eliminated from the competition:

MAX
Serious Black
GardenWeasel 
SacriliciousBeerSwiller 
silo123j


208 of 213 entries remain.

Stay tuned for live updates throughout tonight's festivities.
 
2012-11-06 09:18:04 PM
Current ELIMINATED tally:

MAX
Serious Black
GardenWeasel 
SacriliciousBeerSwiller 
silo123j
GeneralJim 
Nome de Plume  
MIN
Pixiest
 
2012-11-06 09:18:54 PM

DamnYankees: This would be the best map: Link

Romney wins OH, PA and WI and still loses.


PA exit polls are still trending Obama at +5 last I heard. But there is the small matter of the voting machines, of course.
 
2012-11-06 09:34:12 PM
Updated list of losers:

MAX
Serious Black
GardenWeasel 
SacriliciousBeerSwiller 
silo123j
Spanky McStupid 
cubicdissection 
GeneralJim 
Nome de Plume  
MIN
Pixiest
 
2012-11-06 10:27:28 PM
Well, NH took me out of the running.
 
2012-11-06 10:34:25 PM
Out of the running:

MAX
Serious Black
GardenWeasel 
SacriliciousBeerSwiller 
silo123j
Spanky McStupid 
cubicdissection 
GeneralJim 
Nome de Plume  
MIN
Pixiest 

Charmer....almost.
 
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