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(Fark)   Here are the summary results of the Fark Electoral College Prediction Thread. See how you fit into the pack, and let's see if anyone can actually be declared a winner tonight (unlikely)   (fark.com) divider line 125
    More: Followup, decimals, TFers, Mittens  
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3041 clicks; posted to Politics » on 06 Nov 2012 at 1:35 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-06 10:31:50 AM

Thanks to everyone who participated in the predictions thread - as stated in that thread, winner gets a free month of TF. Given the sheer number of ties in the EV prediction, it's more than likely we won't know who wins this for a while when they finalize the PV count. I'll post the general stats here, and the full prediction in the next post.

ONGOING TALLY

Predictions: 210
Predictions of Obama Win: 90%

Median Obama EV: 303
Median Romney EV: 235
Mode Obama EV: 303
Mode Romney EV: 235
Mode as Percent of Total: 20%

Median Obama PV: 50.2
Median Romney PV: 48.6

Max Obama EV Prediction: 385
Max Obama PV Prediction: 54.3

Min Obama EV Prediction: 207
Min Obama PV Prediction: 46.5

Max Obama PV Spread: 8.6
Max Romney PV Spread: 8


OBAMA ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION

img.ctrlv.in

OBAMA MARGIN OF VICTORY DISTRIBUTION

img.ctrlv.in

(Doesn't include the one prediction of Romney by 8 for the sake of making the chart more readable).

 
2012-11-06 10:33:14 AM
The election will be called by 11:30 and anyone that can do simple math will know it will be "over" by 10.
 
2012-11-06 10:33:16 AM
And here are all the predictions in the form of User-Obama EV-RomneyEV-ObamaPV-RomneyPV:

3_Butt_Cheeks  257 281 47 50
5 star chef of tv dinners 293 245
Aarontology 332 206 50.6 48.5
aedude01  285 253
AkaDad  347 191 51.1 47.9
AlanSmithee 300 238 50.1 49.2
Allansfirebird   292 246 54.3 45.7
atlasdon  312 226 52.7 47
Atropos77 299 239 50.2 48.6
Bag of Hammers  306 232 49.9 48.1
Baryogenesis 303 235 50.5 48.7
bgilmore5   332 206
Bill Frist 294 244
BKITU 299 239 50.4 45.8
Bladel  303 235
blender61 313 225 51.3
Boxcutta  332 206
boxiebrown 332 206 51.1 48.6
Bruce Wayne's Actuary 332 206 52 47.2
bullwrinkle 285 253
Cagey B   332 206 51.3 47.6
Carn  303 235 51 48
CheetahOlivetti 303 235 50.6 48.4
cj1319 294 244 50.8 47.6
Clowns are a Ten  315 223 51 47
coeyagi  290 248
common sense is an oxymoron 305 233 50.7 47.9
Communist_Manifesto  303 235 49.5 49.5
Copperbelly watersnake  303 235 49.6 48.6
Corvus  303 235 50.5 48.2
Cosmic_Music  272 266
CPennypacker  286 252 50.4 48.2
croesius  290 248 49.2 48.4
cubicdissection  229 309
Cyberluddite 323 215 50.5 48.7
Dahnkster  306 232
DamnYankees 303 235 50.8 48.9
Darth Skywalker 302 236 51.3 48.5
DeArmondVI 286 252
dekkon 303 235 50.2 49.7
dennysgod   297 241
Diagonal  303 235
Dog Welder  332 206 47.8 47.2
Dogfacedgod   303 235 50.1 48.1
downstairs 269 269 50.2 48.9
doyner 303 235 50.1 48.3
DrD'isInfotainment  332 206
dugitman 290 248
dumbobruni  281 257 48.2 48.4
Earguy  288 250 52
efgeise 326 212
entitygm  272 266
epocalypse 332 206
Fido McCokefiend  332 206 50.6 48.8
FitzShivering 263 275 48.9 49.2
GardenWeasel  379 159
GAT_00  285 253 50.4 49.2
GeneralJim  222 316 46.5 54.5
Ghastly 268 270
gilgigamesh 303 235 49.7 49
Gonz  342 196 49.7 48.4
GoSlash27   294 244
Grand_Moff_Joseph 303 235 50.5 48.4
Hastor  290 248 48 47
hawcian   303 235 49.7 49.7
hdhale 249 289
hillbillypharmacist 290 248 49.8 47.4
HMS_Blinkin  323 215
Hollie Maea  303 235 50.4 48.6
hp6sa  269 269
hutchkc  303 235
hypocaffeinemia 281 257 50.2 48.3
I should be in the kitchen  332 206 50.8 46.6
I_C_Weener 267 271 48.4 48.9
I_Love_Cheesecake   332 206 50.3 48.7
I'm Yukon Cornelius 332 206 50.6 48.4
Imperialism  297 241 50.4 48.7
ivan  294 244
jonnyh  278 260 49.7 48.9
js34603   263 275 47.9 49.1
jst3p  309 229
jungleroy59 303 235 50.2
justabitdisturbed   283 255
kaedric  269 269
Kangacoyote  303 235 50.6 48.8
keithgabryelski 303 235 50.2 49.5
KellyX 294 244
Kevin72  332 206
KiTTeNs_on_AciD 271 267 49.9 48
kkinnison 290 248 49 48.1
Klivian  290 248 49.7 49.9
kmramki   332 206 50.6 48.4
krej55   270 268 49.5 48.9
KushanMadman  294 244 50.2 48.9
lennavan 318 220 49.2 48.7
Lionel Mandrake  303 235
Lligeret  295 243 49.6 49.6
Lord Dimwit 275 263
Lost Thought 00 303 235 51.5 46.5
Lukeonia1 304 234 50.7 48.2
mactheknife  281 257
maddermaxx   332 206 51.05 48.95
Magorn 313 225 52.16 47.84
Majick Thise 304 234 49.8 48
Man On A Mission 303 235
ManateeGag 290 248 49.5 48.1
Markus5   291 247 50.1 47.9
Maud Dib 294 244
MAX 385 331 52.5 51
mayIFark  290 248
MEDIAN 303 235 50.2 48.8
mikemoto 290 248
MIN 207 153 47.6 44.2
miss jinxed  313 225
MisterRonbo  284 254
MisterTweak 318 220
MisterTweak  318 220 51.5 47
MODE 303 235 50.2 48.1
ModernPrimitive01  303 235 50.8 48.9
moos   280 258
Mr_Fabulous   299 239 49 48.1
Mrbogey 265 273
mrmyxolodian  290 248 51.6 48.1
mrshowrules 284 254 49.5 48.5
Mrtraveler01 290 248 50.5 49.5
Muk_Man   303 235
nathanjr   290 248 49.5 48.2
neritz 310 228 50.9 48.2
nesler  332 206
NewWorldDan 272 266
nmrsnr  303 235 50.2 48.6
NobleHam  303 235 50.3 49.2
Nome de Plume   217 321 48 51
NOT a streetlight  347 191 50.9 49.2
NowhereMon  304 234 51 48
NuttierThanEver  304 234 50.4 48.1
NYCNative   281 257
onzmadi   277 261
organizmx  303 235
ORLY TITS 290 248
OtherLittleGuy 290 248 48.9 49.3
Outtaphase 313 225 50.4 48.1
ox45tallboy 312 226 49.9 49.6
Pappas  303 235 48.5 47.6
pciszek 332 206 50.6 48.5
pgh9fan   303 235
phaseolus   303 235 50.4 49.6
phritz 314 224 49.7 48.8
Pixiest  207 331
pmccall  277 261 50.3 48.9
President Raygun  290 248
propasaurus 305 233 50.6 48.5
qorkfiend 294 244 50.6 49.2
Radak  288 250 50.2 49.3
Retard Wrangler 275 263 49.8 50.2
robbiex0r 281 257 52 44.2
robrr2003  288 250 50.2 48.4
RumsfeldsReplacement  294 244
Rwa2play  332 206
RyogaM  281 257 49.6 48.1
SacriliciousBeerSwiller  369 169 52.5 46
saintstryfe  290 248
Sargun  303 235
Serious Black 385 153
sforce  275 263
Shirley Ujest   310 228
silo123j 359 179 52.2 46.3
skykid 303 235
SlothB77  265 273 48.2 48.8
smartaleq  294 244 49.4 49.4
Smelly McUgly 332 206 50.2 48.6
SnakeLee 270 268
solomonsnell 294 244 50.4 49.2
somedude210 332 206 50.2 48.4
Spanky McStupid  236 302
Stile4aly  303 235 50.5 49.1
stpauler  272 266 50.3 47.1
Straight to doom 299 239
sunspotter  294 244 49.5 49
TabASlotB 281 257 49.9 49.1
Tax Boy  269 269
Tea_tempest_Cup  278 260 49.1 48.4
Terlis 347 191 52.1 46.5
ThatBozGuy  303 235 51.8
ThatBozGuy  303 235
ThatGuyGreg 271 267 49.8 49.9
The Amazing Rando!  303 235 49.6 47.1
The Dreaded Rear Admiral 290 248 50.2 48.7
The Evil That Lies In The Hearts Of Men  332 206 50.6
The Fourth Karamazov  303 235 49.32 48.85
The Great EZE  303 235 50.2 48.6
TheCharmerUnderMe 328 210 50.5 48.8
ThePixies  347 191 51.5 47.8
thornhill  303 235 49.7 49.4
thoughtpol  332 206 50.1 48.6
timujin 341 197
tommylikewingy 290 248 49.8 49.1
torr5962  281 257 50.3
TrollingForColumbine  290 248
turddyferguson   319 219
Uberdeity   332 206 49.8 49.9
uksocal  332 206 50.3 49
Via Infinito  304 234
vonschiller 253 285 49 50.1
vpb 311 227
Waxing_Chewbacca 303 235
whistleridge 303 235 50.1 49.9
WombatControl  253 285 47.6 49.8
wooden_badger 282 256 49.5 50.4
WTF Indeed 332 206
xelnia  264 274 51.4 47.1
YouAreItNoTagBacks 291 247
ZangTT  328 210 51.2 48.8
zetar  332 206
 
2012-11-06 12:11:07 PM
Kewl.
 
2012-11-06 12:12:29 PM

WTF Indeed: The election will be called by 11:30 and anyone that can do simple math will know it will be "over" by 10.


This.
 
2012-11-06 12:16:55 PM
Is it too late to put in an entry?
 
I would like to submit potato.
 
2012-11-06 12:21:06 PM
Link to Google Docs spreadsheet with all the predictions: Link
 
2012-11-06 12:21:52 PM
I was told there would be no math.
 
2012-11-06 12:23:55 PM
i46.tinypic.com


Put your money on it. Or something very close.
 
2012-11-06 12:35:41 PM

BravadoGT: [i46.tinypic.com image 850x454]

Put your money on it. Or something very close.



I'll wager 400 quatloos on the newcomer...
 
2012-11-06 12:43:51 PM
I'm waiting until tomorrow to cast my prediction.
 
2012-11-06 12:48:39 PM

BravadoGT: [i46.tinypic.com image 850x454]

Put your money on it. Or something very close.


I'll bet you $10 to a handful of sand that you're full of shiat. Hell, I'll bet you $10 he doesn't take PA, WI, or OH. That's the biggest right-wing mastubatory fantasy that I've seen today, and I've seen a few. Even Unskewed doesn't double down on the derp that much.
 
2012-11-06 12:59:53 PM
Oh, wow. Dean Chambers from unskewed has really toned down the derp at the last minute.
Previous prediction I got from his site as of yesterday (not sure when he posted it)
Obama 227 (45.8)
Romney 311 (50.0)

Today
Obama 263 (48.88)
Romney 275 (50.67)

That's actually somewhat reasonable.
 
2012-11-06 01:00:48 PM

tallguywithglasseson: day


Yeah. He's doing exactly what he accused Silver of - changing his predictions at the last minute to come in line with the polls.
 
2012-11-06 01:05:06 PM

whistleridge: BravadoGT: [i46.tinypic.com image 850x454]

Put your money on it. Or something very close.

I'll bet you $10 to a handful of sand that you're full of shiat. Hell, I'll bet you $10 he doesn't take PA, WI, or OH. That's the biggest right-wing mastubatory fantasy that I've seen today, and I've seen a few. Even Unskewed doesn't double down on the derp that much.


yeah, like I said after, I uploaded the wrong map. The one I meant to has OH and PA going to Romney. But Romney still wins! And America is saved--for the moment.
 
2012-11-06 01:05:41 PM
Damn! I meant "OH and PA going to OBAMA"
 
2012-11-06 01:07:38 PM

DamnYankees: tallguywithglasseson: day

Yeah. He's doing exactly what he accused Silver of - changing his predictions at the last minute to come in line with the polls.


And Silver didn't take his analysis down to a close 50/50.

He couldn't if he wanted to anyway. That's not how mathematical models work.
 
2012-11-06 01:07:45 PM

DamnYankees: Yeah. He's doing exactly what he accused Silver of - changing his predictions at the last minute to come in line with the polls.


Right, except Silver's predictions change when the polls change, Chambers' predictions had very little to do with the actual polls until today... 

I'll admit, I'm kind of disappoint. Enjoyed the drunk-guy-in-the-bar-waving-around-a-broken-bottle style of predictions he had been using...
 
2012-11-06 01:08:28 PM
BTW, does anyone know the best place to find incoming vote counts and such as?
 
2012-11-06 01:10:25 PM

Wow. I guess I'm pretty average...

O EV

Mean 299.682243
Standard Error 1.848588268
Median 303
Mode 303

Standard Deviation 27.042515
Sample Variance 731.2976175
Kurtosis 1.963417578
Skewness -0.130789936
Range 178
Minimum 207
Maximum 385
Count 214
Confidence Level(95.0%) 3.643870344


O PV

Mean 50.18934783
Standard Error 0.09563709
Median 50.2
Mode 50.2

Standard Deviation 1.123481429
Sample Variance 1.26221052
Kurtosis 1.93132426
Skewness -0.159759896
Range 7.8
Minimum 46.5
Maximum 54.3
Count 138
Confidence Level(95.0%) 0.189115765
 

Pretty interesting to see that Obama is over 1 S.D. from losing according to Farkistan.
 
2012-11-06 01:15:22 PM

impaler: BTW, does anyone know the best place to find incoming vote counts and such as?


Here's the NYT page. Don't know if there's a better one out there: Link
 
2012-11-06 01:33:59 PM

impaler: BTW, does anyone know the best place to find incoming vote counts and such as?


does RealClearPolitics have an up-to-the-second tracker/ counter?
 
2012-11-06 01:40:18 PM
The Electoral College is adequate. The real problem is the tuition keeps rising.
 
2012-11-06 01:46:01 PM
Hmm, I guess this is separate from the one Just Another OC Homeless Guy was running a few weeks ago? Wonder what happened to that.
 
2012-11-06 01:48:27 PM
Obama 333 205 50.5 47.7
 
2012-11-06 01:49:18 PM
Ah, I'm not on the list. I guess I'll just have to see I was right on my own, and pat myself on my back if I was.
 
2012-11-06 01:50:03 PM

DamnYankees: Link to Google Docs spreadsheet with all the predictions: Link


Cool... I did not see this thread...

ECV
Obama - 295
Romney - 243

PV
Obama - 50.6
Romney - 49.4
 
2012-11-06 01:51:56 PM

thismomentinblackhistory: WTF Indeed: The election will be called by 11:30 and anyone that can do simple math will know it will be "over" by 10.

This.


A repeat of 2008? I'd be very ok with this.
 
2012-11-06 01:53:02 PM
This is great. Thanks! You have my Electoral numbers but I forgot %. 51.1 POTUS 48.6 Romney
 
2012-11-06 01:53:37 PM
Here's my guess

Obama 297
Romney 241
 
2012-11-06 01:56:52 PM

WTF Indeed: The election will be called by 11:30 and anyone that can do simple math will know it will be "over" by 10.


Concur.

I will die laughing if the NH/CO scenario materializes and the election is over before Ohio, Virginia, or Florida are called.
 
2012-11-06 01:58:56 PM
Oh there is a prize if I guess right? Well here goes

274 Romeny 49.8%
264 Obama 50.0%
 
2012-11-06 01:59:01 PM

qorkfiend: I will die laughing if the NH/CO scenario materializes and the election is over before Ohio, Virginia, or Florida are called.


I foresee shenanigans in Ohio. If Obama wins without Ohio, then the shenanigans will not be investigated and the evildoers will go unpunished. This will sadden me.
 
2012-11-06 02:00:05 PM
Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!
 
2012-11-06 02:00:44 PM

impaler: BTW, does anyone know the best place to find incoming vote counts and such as?


I believe Jon Husted has some neat new software in Ohio for that, but I've heard he's a real dick about sharing the source code.
 
2012-11-06 02:01:06 PM

DamnYankees: Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!


Why do you hate democracy??!?

/I keed
 
2012-11-06 02:01:38 PM
Gotta say I hope Romney wins, just because the consternation and outrage here on Fark will be endlessly amusing to read.
 
2012-11-06 02:01:46 PM

whistleridge: BravadoGT: [i46.tinypic.com image 850x454]

Put your money on it. Or something very close.

I'll bet you $10 to a handful of sand that you're full of shiat. Hell, I'll bet you $10 he doesn't take PA, WI, or OH. That's the biggest right-wing mastubatory fantasy that I've seen today, and I've seen a few. Even Unskewed doesn't double down on the derp that much.


The biggest fantasy there is Romney takes WI and doesn't take NH. If he is doing well enough to take WI, NH would already be in the bag.
 
2012-11-06 02:03:40 PM

WTF Indeed: The election will be called by 11:30 and anyone that can do simple math will know it will be "over" by 10.


hilarygardner.files.wordpress.com
 
2012-11-06 02:03:46 PM

DamnYankees: Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!


THIS IS VOTER SUPPRESSION
 
2012-11-06 02:05:45 PM

DamnYankees: Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!


BTW, I downloaded your spreadsheet and did a little analysis of my own. I'll keep score tonight too; filtering out people who can't win as we go. I'll see if I can predict the winner before you call the "election."

You about to be pundited.
 
2012-11-06 02:06:26 PM

Kyndig: Gotta say I hope Romney wins, just because the consternation and outrage here on Fark will be endlessly amusing to read.


Because the best reason to support a candidate is for the comments on a website.

Freeperland exploding is a nice bonus to an Obama win, but it's not a motivating factor.
 
2012-11-06 02:06:38 PM

qorkfiend: WTF Indeed: The election will be called by 11:30 and anyone that can do simple math will know it will be "over" by 10.

Concur.

I will die laughing if the NH/CO scenario materializes and the election is over before Ohio, Virginia, or Florida are called.


The magic number is 196 for Obama. If he's got that number (or more) on or before 11 ET rolls around, it's pretty much done.

IIRC he had 220 EVs at about 10:30 ET 4 years ago.
 
2012-11-06 02:08:48 PM

doyner: DamnYankees: Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!

BTW, I downloaded your spreadsheet and did a little analysis of my own. I'll keep score tonight too; filtering out people who can't win as we go. I'll see if I can predict the winner before you call the "election."

You about to be pundited.


Cool. Should be easy to figure out - if Obama loses FL or VA, something like half of the predictions will immediately be knocked out (as 303 and 332 will basically become impossible).
 
2012-11-06 02:08:52 PM
Ohio. If Obama wins Ohio, the election is his. Romney can't win without Ohio.
 
2012-11-06 02:09:47 PM

DamnYankees: tallguywithglasseson: day

Yeah. He's doing exactly what he accused Silver of - changing his predictions at the last minute to come in line with the polls.


For comparison:

Released October 25, 2012

The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race

The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 53.63 percent of the popular vote and 359 electoral votes to President Obama's 45.92 percent and 179 electoral votes.

QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats, and 30.0 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 130,955,000 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama.

Methodology: For EACH state, all of the following information was considered: results from the last four elections averaged together, recent political trends in that state (such as Republicans winning control of both houses of the state legislature in 2010 in Maine and New Hampshire), recent trends in demographic makeup that affect the politics of the state (such as the growth of hispanics in Colorado causing the Democratic Party to become more competitive), and the degree to which one or both of the major campaigns are targetting that state, such as both campaigns making Ohio the most important state and campaigning there more than any other state, and any other relevant political factors and data such as public polls from a variety of pollling firms, as well as data from the QStarNews polls of the presidential race. From all of this information a percentage breakdown of each state is calculated between Romney and Obama. This projection is expected to be spot-on accurate for predicting the outcome in all 50 states and the District of Columbia and close to the actual popular vote.

Perhaps some of the most surprising states to some will be the following:

Colorado: 54-45 Romney -- a suprise for many still expecting Obama to carry Colorado

Connecticut: 51-47 Obama -- closer than expected, and probably an indication that Linda McMahon wins the state's U.S. Senate seat

Florida: 54-46 Romney

Iowa: 54-46 Romney -- many don't expect this

Maine: 49-49 Obama -- much closer than expected

Michigan: 51-48 Romney -- the surprise of the night, Romney's home state ties are more key than Obama's claims to have "saved" the domestic auto industry

Nevada: 52-47 Romney -- this will surprise many

Minnesota: 51-47 Romney -- this will surprise many

New Hampshire: 53-46 Romney

New Jersey: 50-49 Obama -- much much closer than expected, the Romney campaign will re-allocate resources to New Jersey if they believe this number

New Mexico: 53-46 Romney -- most don't expect Romney to win New Mexico

Ohio: 54-46 Romney -- Late momentum and great ground game win the Buckeye state for Romney

Oregon: 52-46 Romney -- major surprise

Pennsylvania: 53-47 Romney -- big time upset

Washington: 51-49 Obama -- closer than expected
 
2012-11-06 02:10:28 PM
s8.postimage.org
My Prediction
 
2012-11-06 02:10:29 PM

CruiserTwelve: Ohio. If Obama wins Ohio, the election is his. Romney can't win without Ohio.


VA plays almost the same role. The chance of Romney winning without VA is really, really slim.
 
2012-11-06 02:10:53 PM

CruiserTwelve: Ohio. If Obama wins Ohio, the election is his. Romney can't win without Ohio.


Don't worry a recent software patch to their voting machines hotfixed the that bug.
 
2012-11-06 02:12:15 PM

DamnYankees: doyner: DamnYankees: Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!

BTW, I downloaded your spreadsheet and did a little analysis of my own. I'll keep score tonight too; filtering out people who can't win as we go. I'll see if I can predict the winner before you call the "election."

You about to be pundited.

Cool. Should be easy to figure out - if Obama loses FL or VA, something like half of the predictions will immediately be knocked out (as 303 and 332 will basically become impossible).


The trick will be in the PV numbers in that scenario. I'ma whip out my statisticals.
 
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