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(Talking Points Memo)   Romney leads in final Gallup poll by 1 point   (2012.talkingpointsmemo.com) divider line 62
    More: Interesting, Gallup, political independents, Monmouth University, Beloit College, TPM Media, Pew Research  
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1024 clicks; posted to Politics » on 06 Nov 2012 at 11:01 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-06 08:15:01 AM  
I actually would love to see Romney win the popular vote and lose the election.
 
2012-11-06 08:18:34 AM  
I dunno if that'll happen. I wouldn't want to risk the GOP winning in the courts anyway. You know they will somehow. Plus, it'll completely fark over Obama's second term because you'll have actual congresscritters not wanting to do business because they honestly don't believe Obama legitimately won
 
2012-11-06 08:22:07 AM  

somedude210: I dunno if that'll happen. I wouldn't want to risk the GOP winning in the courts anyway. You know they will somehow. Plus, it'll completely fark over Obama's second term because you'll have actual congresscritters not wanting to do business because they honestly don't believe Obama legitimately won


Really? Have you been in a coma for the last 4 years?

The Republicans in the senate never wanted to do business with Obama from day one. Nothing that happens today is going to change that.
 
2012-11-06 08:27:19 AM  

Tor_Eckman: somedude210: I dunno if that'll happen. I wouldn't want to risk the GOP winning in the courts anyway. You know they will somehow. Plus, it'll completely fark over Obama's second term because you'll have actual congresscritters not wanting to do business because they honestly don't believe Obama legitimately won

Really? Have you been in a coma for the last 4 years?

The Republicans in the senate never wanted to do business with Obama from day one. Nothing that happens today is going to change that.


Oh I know that. But there's a difference between petulant 2 year olds and actually believing Obama didn't legitimately win.
 
2012-11-06 08:29:07 AM  

somedude210: Tor_Eckman: somedude210: I dunno if that'll happen. I wouldn't want to risk the GOP winning in the courts anyway. You know they will somehow. Plus, it'll completely fark over Obama's second term because you'll have actual congresscritters not wanting to do business because they honestly don't believe Obama legitimately won

Really? Have you been in a coma for the last 4 years?

The Republicans in the senate never wanted to do business with Obama from day one. Nothing that happens today is going to change that.

Oh I know that. But there's a difference between petulant 2 year olds and actually believing Obama didn't legitimately win.


There's a pretty good chance that regardless of the size of Obama's victory, if indeed he does win, then the far right nutbars are going to call it a felonious theft of the nation.
 
2012-11-06 08:30:45 AM  

Slaxl: There's a pretty good chance that regardless of the size of Obama's victory, if indeed he does win, then the far right nutbars are going to call it a felonious theft of the nation.


What!? You're saying that there's an extreme faction of our populace that sits unhinged because a Democrat socialist commie holds office, and to make it worse, he's black!? Surely, you can't be serious!
 
2012-11-06 08:59:35 AM  

Slaxl: somedude210: Tor_Eckman: somedude210: I dunno if that'll happen. I wouldn't want to risk the GOP winning in the courts anyway. You know they will somehow. Plus, it'll completely fark over Obama's second term because you'll have actual congresscritters not wanting to do business because they honestly don't believe Obama legitimately won

Really? Have you been in a coma for the last 4 years?

The Republicans in the senate never wanted to do business with Obama from day one. Nothing that happens today is going to change that.

Oh I know that. But there's a difference between petulant 2 year olds and actually believing Obama didn't legitimately win.

There's a pretty good chance that regardless of the size of Obama's victory, if indeed he does win, then the far right nutbars are going to call it a felonious theft of the nation.


Obama had 365 Electoral Votes in 2008, and the nutjobs still questioned his "legitimacy" and did everything you describe....
 
2012-11-06 09:06:20 AM  
...and if national polls meant anything at all, this would be interesting. But they don't, so it isn't.
 
2012-11-06 09:12:23 AM  
t3.gstatic.com
I'm soooo scared.


/very obscure.
 
2012-11-06 09:18:02 AM  

stpauler: /very obscure.


AWOTM is not THAT obscure
 
2012-11-06 09:25:48 AM  

Dust: ...and if national polls meant anything at all, this would be interesting. But they don't, so it isn't.


They do have meaning, they just don't determine the outcome. It is still a footnote in the history books when someone wins the electoral college without the popular vote. It's a bit of a rarity.
 
2012-11-06 10:38:38 AM  

nekom: I actually would love to see Romney win the popular vote and lose the election.


Besides the humorous derpstorm, it wouldn't really have any meaning. If the electoral college was abolished before this election, both campaigns would have adapted and changed their techniques. The PV would then become a good indication of the election winner and Obama would probably still be ahead.
 
2012-11-06 11:04:22 AM  

somedude210: Plus, it'll completely fark over Obama's second term because you'll have actual congresscritters not wanting to do business because they honestly don't believe Obama legitimately won


dude, they don't even believe he is a legitimate citizen.
 
2012-11-06 11:05:04 AM  
Gallup is the new Rasmussen.
 
2012-11-06 11:05:13 AM  

nekom: I actually would love to see Romney win the popular vote and lose the election.


Not I. Then we'll have 4 more years of 0Bummer is iligimate WHARRGARBL
 
2012-11-06 11:06:42 AM  

Dust: ...and if national polls meant anything at all, this would be interesting. But they don't, so it isn't.


It's interesting because Romney had a 7 point in this poll before Hurricane Sandy. When the most Republican leaning polls (Gallup and Rasmussen) only give Romney a 1 point lead, you know his chances are slim.
 
2012-11-06 11:06:54 AM  
Intrade begs to differ, as do the Australian betting sites.
 
2012-11-06 11:07:00 AM  

Lumpmoose: nekom: I actually would love to see Romney win the popular vote and lose the election.

Besides the humorous derpstorm, it wouldn't really have any meaning. If the electoral college was abolished before this election, both campaigns would have adapted and changed their techniques. The PV would then become a good indication of the election winner and Obama would probably still be ahead.


Does nekom perhaps mean that this would make Congress want to move to a popular vote system instead of the electoral college mess?
 
2012-11-06 11:07:19 AM  
Nate Silver now has Obama as a 90.9% favorite to win.

I voted for Romney, but reality is reality. Obama is going to win. I just hope its quick and painless. It's going to suck for the country if things get drug out with legal challenges.
 
2012-11-06 11:07:59 AM  

1derful: Intrade begs to differ, as do the Australian betting sites.


And the guy who was right on 49 of 50 states in 2008
 
2012-11-06 11:08:36 AM  
So this means Obama is up by 3, 4 points or so.
 
2012-11-06 11:09:20 AM  
Gallup predicting a horse-race? Shocker.
 
2012-11-06 11:09:31 AM  

BigBooper: Nate Silver now has Obama as a 90.9% favorite to win.

I voted for Romney, but reality is reality. Obama is going to win. I just hope its quick and painless. It's going to suck for the country if things get drug out with legal challenges.


Not trying to start anything, but what issue or issues helped to decide your vote?
 
2012-11-06 11:12:02 AM  

Headso: somedude210: Plus, it'll completely fark over Obama's second term because you'll have actual congresscritters not wanting to do business because they honestly don't believe Obama legitimately won

dude, they don't even believe he is a legitimate citizen.


The base, yes, I don't believe that the Congressmen honestly believe that. I think they just know how to play the base and keep themselves in power by doing so.
 
2012-11-06 11:13:32 AM  
Gallup's likely voter screen BLOWS
 
2012-11-06 11:13:50 AM  

nekom: I actually would love to see Romney win the popular vote and lose the election.


Ditto. When Conservatives get worked into a froth, change happens. Get the tea party on board with direct elections and we'll see voter turnout go up (if it doesn't then I don't want to live on this planet anymore) and the value of special interest groups go down.

Arkanaut: Does nekom perhaps mean that this would make Congress want to move to a popular vote system instead of the electoral college mess?


That is my assumption.
 
2012-11-06 11:15:51 AM  

jcb274: BigBooper: Nate Silver now has Obama as a 90.9% favorite to win.

I voted for Romney, but reality is reality. Obama is going to win. I just hope its quick and painless. It's going to suck for the country if things get drug out with legal challenges.

Not trying to start anything, but what issue or issues helped to decide your vote?


Well it obvious that Obama is a radical Islamist/Athiest/Christen liberationist/communist/socialist/fascist/do nothing/ destroying everything/ worstest president ever.
 
2012-11-06 11:16:26 AM  

1derful: Intrade begs to differ, as do the Australian betting sites.


"Romney" stock in intrade is crashing. Last night was at $3.73, now it's $2.74. 26% loss in just few hours.
 
2012-11-06 11:16:43 AM  
Oh boy, I predicted Obama with more than 300 electoral college votes and a 3 percent popular vote advantage.

How silly does that look now?
 
2012-11-06 11:17:48 AM  

Lumpmoose: nekom: I actually would love to see Romney win the popular vote and lose the election.

Besides the humorous derpstorm, it wouldn't really have any meaning. If the electoral college was abolished before this election, both campaigns would have adapted and changed their techniques. The PV would then become a good indication of the election winner and Obama would probably still be ahead.


The other thing that comes from national vote is some easy statistical analysis. There's this concept of "regression to the mean." For example, as you flip an unbiased coin more times, the frequency of heads approaches 50% more closely. Instead of a coin, imagine a piece of software that represented a coin flip. There could be a built in "change outcome" loop that kicked in every so often and changed a head to a tail. In this case the more coin flips tallied, the frequency increases for one outcome, for example, heads at the expense of heads.

Here's are real life examples: pdf
 
2012-11-06 11:18:17 AM  

jcb274: BigBooper: Nate Silver now has Obama as a 90.9% favorite to win.

I voted for Romney, but reality is reality. Obama is going to win. I just hope its quick and painless. It's going to suck for the country if things get drug out with legal challenges.

Not trying to start anything, but what issue or issues helped to decide your vote?


I own a health insurance agency. Today, with an Obama win, the affordable care act becomes effectively written in stone. There are other issues, but my job is on the line today. That's a pretty powerful motivator.

/yes I'm worse than Hitler
//feel free to celebrate the destruction of my small business
 
2012-11-06 11:18:20 AM  
Amazing how Gallup fell right in line with the other national polls after they came back from their Sandy break.
 
2012-11-06 11:20:08 AM  

LouDobbsAwaaaay: Gallup predicting a horse-race? Shocker.


DRINK!
 
2012-11-06 11:22:09 AM  

Cletus C.: Oh boy, I predicted Obama with more than 300 electoral college votes and a 3 percent popular vote advantage.

How silly does that look now?


How silly is the most common prediction people are making?
 
2012-11-06 11:23:52 AM  

Dusk-You-n-Me: Amazing how Gallup fell right in line with the other national polls after they came back from their Sandy break.


Rasmussen and Gallup both made that last minute to salvage what was left of their credibility before the next election cycle. I feel bad for the people hanging on to those polls to the last possible moment as a glimmer of hope.

/do not actually feel bad
//they know who they are
 
2012-11-06 11:24:02 AM  

Jairzinho: 1derful: Intrade begs to differ, as do the Australian betting sites.

"Romney" stock in intrade is crashing. Last night was at $3.73, now it's $2.74. 26% loss in just few hours.


I don't think Nate Silver has had Obama over 90% before either.

This doesn't mean an Obama landslide, it just means everyone thinks Obama is going to win. I still think Obama doesn't break 50% of the popular vote.
 
2012-11-06 11:24:49 AM  
Romney can console himself with that data tonight when he's getting ready to give his concession speech...
 
2012-11-06 11:27:11 AM  

Arkanaut: Does nekom perhaps mean that this would make Congress want to move to a popular vote system instead of the electoral college mess?


It would at least get the issue discussed. With both parties having burned by it in recent memory, maybe we'd see a serious push for reform. There may have been a time when it made sense, but that time is not now. All it appears to do is under-represent certain people, say Republicans in California or Democrats in Texas. It also focuses the campaigns nearly entirely within half a dozen states. I see no real upside to it.

The whargarbl would also be delicious.
 
2012-11-06 11:27:49 AM  

BigBooper: jcb274: BigBooper: Nate Silver now has Obama as a 90.9% favorite to win.

I voted for Romney, but reality is reality. Obama is going to win. I just hope its quick and painless. It's going to suck for the country if things get drug out with legal challenges.

Not trying to start anything, but what issue or issues helped to decide your vote?

I own a health insurance agency. Today, with an Obama win, the affordable care act becomes effectively written in stone. There are other issues, but my job is on the line today. That's a pretty powerful motivator.

/yes I'm worse than Hitler
//feel free to celebrate the destruction of my small business


I won't celebrate the destruction of your business. I'll celebrate the destruction of your industry.

That said, fair enough on why you voted the way you did. It's a rational, informed decision whether I agree with it or not.

/And not that my opinion of it matters.
//Slashies matter
 
2012-11-06 11:29:19 AM  

BigBooper: jcb274: BigBooper: Nate Silver now has Obama as a 90.9% favorite to win.

I voted for Romney, but reality is reality. Obama is going to win. I just hope its quick and painless. It's going to suck for the country if things get drug out with legal challenges.

Not trying to start anything, but what issue or issues helped to decide your vote?

I own a health insurance agency. Today, with an Obama win, the affordable care act becomes effectively written in stone. There are other issues, but my job is on the line today. That's a pretty powerful motivator.

/yes I'm worse than Hitler
//feel free to celebrate the destruction of my small business


That makes more sense than a lot of other people. At least you're voting in your own interests. I am personally interested in how obamacare will end your business. To me it seems that it prolongs the life of private insurers when a public option was a real possibility. But we don't need to get into any of that :-)

But, thanks for doing your civic duty. Best of luck to you in your professional pursuits, sir or madam.
 
2012-11-06 11:31:28 AM  

BigBooper: Jairzinho: 1derful: Intrade begs to differ, as do the Australian betting sites.

"Romney" stock in intrade is crashing. Last night was at $3.73, now it's $2.74. 26% loss in just few hours.

I don't think Nate Silver has had Obama over 90% before either.

This doesn't mean an Obama landslide, it just means everyone thinks Obama is going to win. I still think Obama doesn't break 50% of the popular vote.


He was up over 90 after the conventions until the first debate.
 
2012-11-06 11:34:37 AM  

Summoner101: He was up over 90 after the conventions until the first debate.


The now-cast at the time had him over 90% (flirting with 99% at one point), but the actual election-day projection was below 90.
 
2012-11-06 11:35:21 AM  

somedude210: I dunno if that'll happen. I wouldn't want to risk the GOP winning in the courts anyway. You know they will somehow. Plus, it'll completely fark over Obama's second term because you'll have actual congresscritters not wanting to do business because they honestly don't believe Obama legitimately won


True

Tor_Eckman: Really? Have you been in a coma for the last 4 years?

The Republicans in the senate never wanted to do business with Obama from day one. Nothing that happens today is going to change that.


Also true.
 
2012-11-06 11:36:19 AM  

jcb274: BigBooper: jcb274: BigBooper: Nate Silver now has Obama as a 90.9% favorite to win.

I voted for Romney, but reality is reality. Obama is going to win. I just hope its quick and painless. It's going to suck for the country if things get drug out with legal challenges.

Not trying to start anything, but what issue or issues helped to decide your vote?

I own a health insurance agency. Today, with an Obama win, the affordable care act becomes effectively written in stone. There are other issues, but my job is on the line today. That's a pretty powerful motivator.

/yes I'm worse than Hitler
//feel free to celebrate the destruction of my small business

That makes more sense than a lot of other people. At least you're voting in your own interests. I am personally interested in how obamacare will end your business. To me it seems that it prolongs the life of private insurers when a public option was a real possibility. But we don't need to get into any of that :-)

But, thanks for doing your civic duty. Best of luck to you in your professional pursuits, sir or madam.


Friend of mine is a freelance insurance agent in GA. He basically helps people shop for the best insurance deals in the individual market (has since branched out to auto, life, property, etc to hedge against the impact on the health insurance biz) . A job which the exchanges will do under ACA.
 
2012-11-06 11:41:19 AM  

Cletus C.: Oh boy, I predicted Obama with more than 300 electoral college votes and a 3 percent popular vote advantage.

How silly does that look now?


To be fair, those are only two statisticals.
 
2012-11-06 11:46:04 AM  

BigBooper: jcb274: BigBooper: Nate Silver now has Obama as a 90.9% favorite to win.

I voted for Romney, but reality is reality. Obama is going to win. I just hope its quick and painless. It's going to suck for the country if things get drug out with legal challenges.

Not trying to start anything, but what issue or issues helped to decide your vote?

I own a health insurance agency. Today, with an Obama win, the affordable care act becomes effectively written in stone. There are other issues, but my job is on the line today. That's a pretty powerful motivator.

/yes I'm worse than Hitler
//feel free to celebrate the destruction of my small business


Wisconsin is way behind on the state health exchange. Should be some nice contracts coming out. Usually a big sweeping change like this is good for small businesses if they can adapt.

Best of luck. It'll be an interesting couple of years.
 
2012-11-06 11:47:26 AM  

jcb274: BigBooper: jcb274: BigBooper: Nate Silver now has Obama as a 90.9% favorite to win.

I voted for Romney, but reality is reality. Obama is going to win. I just hope its quick and painless. It's going to suck for the country if things get drug out with legal challenges.

Not trying to start anything, but what issue or issues helped to decide your vote?

I own a health insurance agency. Today, with an Obama win, the affordable care act becomes effectively written in stone. There are other issues, but my job is on the line today. That's a pretty powerful motivator.

/yes I'm worse than Hitler
//feel free to celebrate the destruction of my small business

That makes more sense than a lot of other people. At least you're voting in your own interests. I am personally interested in how obamacare will end your business. To me it seems that it prolongs the life of private insurers when a public option was a real possibility. But we don't need to get into any of that :-)

But, thanks for doing your civic duty. Best of luck to you in your professional pursuits, sir or madam.


Just as an FYI, most of the business that I represent plan on dropping insurance. With the way the law is written, the industry actually gets more people insured through the exchanges. I also believe that your going to see the larger insurance companies push out the smaller ones. In the end, we will have a few giant health insurance companies screwing over peoples lives. Independent agents, and the smaller insurance companies that actually try to provide good customer service will be gone. Nobody but the big companies that everyone hates ends up winning.

Sorry for getting off topic. As for voting, I think everyone should be an informed and educated voter. There is just too much information out there, and it's too easy to get to be ignorant of the facts when you vote. I would hope that everyone would care enough about our country to get off their asses and vote. But unfortunately, many don't.
 
2012-11-06 11:50:58 AM  

BigBooper: jcb274: BigBooper: Nate Silver now has Obama as a 90.9% favorite to win.

I voted for Romney, but reality is reality. Obama is going to win. I just hope its quick and painless. It's going to suck for the country if things get drug out with legal challenges.

Not trying to start anything, but what issue or issues helped to decide your vote?

I own a health insurance agency. Today, with an Obama win, the affordable care act becomes effectively written in stone. There are other issues, but my job is on the line today. That's a pretty powerful motivator.

/yes I'm worse than Hitler
//feel free to celebrate the destruction of my small business


Because you will be forced to provide insurance? Fail to see how a program to make every buy insurance would otherwise put an insurance salesperson out of busisness.
 
2012-11-06 11:55:27 AM  

The Jami Turman Fan Club: Wisconsin is way behind on the state health exchange.


Walker is intentionally dragging his feet on the issue, hoping for a last-minute upset for Romney to win so he doesn't have to comply. I suspect that after Obama wins tonight (in all likelihood), he'll still refuse to implement the exchanges. He's a "I don't care how illegal it is, just try and stop me" kind of guy.
 
2012-11-06 12:03:52 PM  

tzzhc4: BigBooper: jcb274: BigBooper: Nate Silver now has Obama as a 90.9% favorite to win.

I voted for Romney, but reality is reality. Obama is going to win. I just hope its quick and painless. It's going to suck for the country if things get drug out with legal challenges.

Not trying to start anything, but what issue or issues helped to decide your vote?

I own a health insurance agency. Today, with an Obama win, the affordable care act becomes effectively written in stone. There are other issues, but my job is on the line today. That's a pretty powerful motivator.

/yes I'm worse than Hitler
//feel free to celebrate the destruction of my small business

Because you will be forced to provide insurance? Fail to see how a program to make every buy insurance would otherwise put an insurance salesperson out of busisness.


That's just it. I probably won't be able to sell through the exchange. Insurance companies will sell direct. Now you may think "good, that cuts out the middle man". But much of my job is helping people find the best plan, and then helping them with it if they have any problems. Much of my time is spent fighting with insurance companies to get them to pay claims. I represent my clients, not the insurance companies. Many of the people that I represent could now go direct with an insurance company and save a few dollars. But they go through me because I deal with the insurance companies so they don't have to. Now, individuals won't have that choice. They will have to go direct. (at least in my state)
 
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