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(The New York Times)   In the midst of increasing GOP criticism, Nate Silver posts his final forecast update: Oh, I'm afraid President Obama will be quite re-elected, when your talking points arrive   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 302
    More: Followup, President Obama, GOP, talking points  
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10812 clicks; posted to Main » on 06 Nov 2012 at 8:41 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-06 01:06:03 PM

Leeds: BeesNuts: Leeds: BeesNuts: For not focusing on the economy, the current president sure did a bang up job of keeping the boat afloat on an anemic tide. Further, keeping with that analogy, 2% growth feels like a tide, whereas the 15-20% growth we see in bubble economies feels more like a tsunami. One of those tends to be moderately destructive. I know which I'd prefer.

You're content with 2% growth????????????

Is it really possible that you don't have any out of work friends and you evidently don't know anyone with kids who intend on entering the job market in the next decade.

Because we can't get back to full employment if we have people entering the job market at a faster pace than we create jobs. That's what this paltry 2% growth gives us.

Please reconsider your position. At present you are basically saying "screw America."

I'm more content with consistent, stable 2% growth (last year we actually saw more along the lines of 5% growth, but I thought you'd appreciate being a little conservative in my estimate. Guess not.) than I'd be with two years of 6% growth followed by a year of 3% decline. But 2% growth in a recession? YOU DAMN WELL BETTER BELIEVE I AM CONTENT WITH THAT.

People are NOT entering the workforce faster than they are leaving it. In fact, quite the opposite. Labor participation is falling because 4 years ago, a bunch of people were ready to retire, then they lost everything. The market has recovered, and so has their retirement nest-egg. So 4 years worth of people are confident enough to start leaving the workforce. This is a good thing. Not a bad thing. And it's precisely counter to what you believe to be the case.


One in 2 recent college graduates can't even find a job. And yet you pretend that this is indicative of adequate economic growth? I don't think that you are an evil person or anything, I just think that you're out of touch.

// And yes, that's a liberal link to the huffington post.


You know, it could be that 1 in 2 college graduates are unemployable. College has changed from an institution to teach job skills into an excuse to put off being an adult for 4 years. Maybe if some of these grads had tried finding a job during college they would have more to put in their resume other than "first place beer pong champions."
 
2012-11-06 01:06:06 PM
Witness the power of a fully optional Obama reelection machine
 
2012-11-06 01:06:19 PM

Alphax: Purdue_Pete: Oh and yes, I'm obviously a racist. I'm voting Romney so he can put black people back in the fields where they belong. Along with legalizing legitimate rape and banning abortions of course. That's what anyone like me who voted Obama in '08 but thinks he did a crappy job leading our country is, right? A racist? 

/sarcasm off
/pro choice
/pro gay marriage
/anti crappy president

Delusional at best. Misinformed? The word 'wrong' works as well.


Alphax: Purdue_Pete: Oh and yes, I'm obviously a racist. I'm voting Romney so he can put black people back in the fields where they belong. Along with legalizing legitimate rape and banning abortions of course. That's what anyone like me who voted Obama in '08 but thinks he did a crappy job leading our country is, right? A racist? 

/sarcasm off
/pro choice
/pro gay marriage
/anti crappy president

Delusional at best. Misinformed? The word 'wrong' works as well.

 
2012-11-06 01:09:43 PM

Leeds: Who the f**k is Nate Silver and why has fark begun to mention him 20 times a day?

Did he even exist before this week?


Just *look* at how willfully ignorant you are.
 
2012-11-06 01:10:02 PM

Tman144: People are NOT entering the workforce faster than they are leaving it. In fact, quite the opposite. Labor participation is falling because 4 years ago, a bunch of people were ready to retire, then they lost everything. The market has recovered, and so has their retirement nest-egg. So 4 years worth of people are confident enough to start leaving the workforce. This is a good thing. Not a bad thing. And it's precisely counter to what you believe to be the case.


One in 2 recent college graduates can't even find a job. And yet you pretend that this is indicative of adequate economic growth? I don't think that you are an evil person or anything, I just think that you're out of touch.

// And yes, that's a liberal link to the huffington post.

You know, it could be that 1 in 2 college graduates are unemployable. College has changed from an institution to teach job skills into an excuse to put off being an adult for 4 years. Maybe if some of these grads had tried finding a job during college they would have more to put in their resume other than "first place beer pong champions."


I agree that a lot of liberal arts degrees are worthless. But even accepting for that, those people used to get jobs after they graduated.

We need to have stronger economic growth so that we can create jobs for these people to fill.
 
2012-11-06 01:12:17 PM

mrshowrules: maniacbastard: Does Nate use some kind of Monte Carlo method to process the poll info and arrive at his results?

Some Farker explained it perfectly about 2 days ago. It is neither rocket-science or magic. Just the application of sound statistical principles.

My summary which is not as thorough:
1) weight and adjust polls based on house-bias and other factors such as historical performance and sample size
2) calculate State probabilities of wins
3) use a random generator function to produce likely voting scenarios and measure EV outcomes
4) run 10,000 random scenarios (random numbers are weighted towards likelihood) count how may times each candidate wins.

Based on current predictions, Obama wins in about 9,200 simulations in 10,000.


and hence lies the flaw of polling. to get very very accurate predictions you needs like 10000 variables. Most polls use 20! and these are the good reputable ones.
Historical performance is pretty much useless mainly because of EV. Swing states are what determine the outcome. The fact that they are swing in itself means past historical data is meaningless.

The odds of Louisiana going to Romney is about the same as the odds that OH will be close.
 
2012-11-06 01:12:57 PM

Sock Ruh Tease: Even With A Chainsaw: MemeSlave: Headso: I hope the guy is right, supreme court justice appointees alone are a reason to fear a bishop president.

As opposed to a Catholic one? Or a Muslim? Or a Jew?

Or a queen, king, knight, rook, pawn?

[i.imgur.com image 328x640]


*snerk*

/Nice.
 
2012-11-06 01:26:57 PM

Holocaust Agnostic: Game metaphors? Why?

/Obama has a terminator save and Feel no Pain.


That didn't help my meganobz this week. I do not feel reassured.
 
2012-11-06 01:28:33 PM

SuperNinjaToad: The odds of Louisiana going to Romney is about the same as the odds that OH will be close.


Not sure I understand. Ohio won't be close?
 
2012-11-06 01:32:46 PM
Am I going to have to post the actual bookie odds? OK. Ladbrokes has Obama at 1.20, +6 over the other guy.
 
2012-11-06 01:40:36 PM

JSam21: have a feeling that slight changes of voter turnout will swing some blue states red, especially with all the talk of an Obama run away. That talk could keep some Obama supporters from turning out.


For the life of me, I do not understand this oft-repeated pearl of wisdom.

Why on earth would Politics be the only place where the Bandwagon Effect is inoperative?

It's where the bloody concept comes from in the first place!
 
2012-11-06 01:49:07 PM
Nice headline subby.
 
2012-11-06 01:53:09 PM

This text is now purple: Go read some about how 1860 played out.

\Democrats committing open treason is how it ended...



You know, no matter how you dress up that pig...

It's still a pig.

mitEj: "Despite the high number of officials who were allegedly booted, the dispute itself is not uncommon for Philadelphia. Fred Voigt, legal counsel for the city commissioners, said these kinds of face-offs happen "with regularity" in the City of Brotherly Love.

"It happens all the time," Voigt said. He said court-appointed Republican officials typically show up on Election Day and end up squaring off against stand-in officials at the polling sites filling in the open seats.


Anybody else wondering if the Veritas Project was there?
 
2012-11-06 01:55:00 PM

hugram: Thunderpipes: ... math does not lie. In no way can anything about the economy be called good...

Fact that Obama is even in the race shows how far we have fallen as a country. Think about it, you tools are orgasmic to vote for a President who is responsible for the worst financial outlook for the country in your life. Its like you want to be kicked in the junk. Half of college grads can't get a decent job, and you still orgasm over Obama? Just nuts.

Horrific math and such below...

In case you don't remember the financial crisis, here is an article explaining the financial crisis timeline, which started on Feb of 2007.

A basic illustration of what was going on in late 2008...
[budget.senate.gov image 776x600]

A link showing a few newspaper headlines during the crisis...

A few September 2008 links from CNBC

Anyway, those scary headlines are no longer appearing.

Maybe it is because GDP performance during the Obama Administration has gone into positive growth.
[www.tradingeconomics.com image 700x300]

Many US corporate profits after tax are at an all-time high.
[research.stlouisfed.org image 630x378]

US stock markets performance during the Obama Administration...
DOW in 01/20/2009: 7,949.09
DOW in 11/01/2012: 13,232.62
Rate of Return: 66.47%

S&P 500 in 01/20/2009: 805.22
S&P 500 in 11/01/2012: 1,427.59
Rate of Return: 77.29%

NASDAQ in 01/20/2009: 1,440.86
NASDAQ in 11/01/2012: 3,020.06
Rate of Return: 109.60%


US stock markets performance since hitting the bottom on March 9th of 2009...
DOW in 03/09/2009: 6,547.05
DOW in 11/01/2012: 13,232.62
Rate of Return: 102.12%

S&P 500 in 03/09/2009: 676.53
S&P 500 in 11/01/2012: 1,427.59
Rate of Return: 111.02%

NASDAQ in 03/09/2009: 1,268.64
NASDAQ in 11/01/2012: 3,020.06
Rate of Return: 138.05%

Private jobs hemorrhage slowed down during the Obama Administration and eventually went into positive territory.
[farm9.staticflickr.com image 658x412]

Unemployment claims has been dropping, especially since the start ...


Marry me. Pump me full of your gametes this instant.
 
2012-11-06 02:01:38 PM

Leeds: Tman144: People are NOT entering the workforce faster than they are leaving it. In fact, quite the opposite. Labor participation is falling because 4 years ago, a bunch of people were ready to retire, then they lost everything. The market has recovered, and so has their retirement nest-egg. So 4 years worth of people are confident enough to start leaving the workforce. This is a good thing. Not a bad thing. And it's precisely counter to what you believe to be the case.


One in 2 recent college graduates can't even find a job. And yet you pretend that this is indicative of adequate economic growth? I don't think that you are an evil person or anything, I just think that you're out of touch.

// And yes, that's a liberal link to the huffington post.

You know, it could be that 1 in 2 college graduates are unemployable. College has changed from an institution to teach job skills into an excuse to put off being an adult for 4 years. Maybe if some of these grads had tried finding a job during college they would have more to put in their resume other than "first place beer pong champions."

I agree that a lot of liberal arts degrees are worthless. But even accepting for that, those people used to get jobs after they graduated.

We need to have stronger economic growth so that we can create jobs for these people to fill.


fark "these people." "These people" used to get jobs because at 4.5% unemployment, all job qualifications are "has a pulse." I disagree that we need stronger growth so that every drunken jerk-off who slept through college can be guaranteed a job. What we need is a balanced budget. And the Republican party, since Reagan, has proven themselves unwilling, or unable, to do it.
 
2012-11-06 02:06:04 PM

This text is now purple: 1. They were Republicans in a city that's 90% Democrat. That's the only reason.


And I'm sure they were behaving with the utmost decorum and respect for the process, not frivilosly challenging Democratic voters will-nilly, you betcha!

Like those long summer car rides to the beach: your little sister keeps on pinching you and pinching you and when you finally haul off and slug her, you're the one who gets in trouble.

And then she sticks her tongue out at you for the rest of the ride.

Leeds: And yes, that's a liberal link


How can a link, nothing more than a simple tool, be "liberal", if you please?
 
2012-11-06 02:10:16 PM

Purdue_Pete: You must have missed this part where your own city legal team said "yeah, it happens all the time, totally normal" then?

Despite the high number of officials who were allegedly booted, the dispute itself is not uncommon for Philadelphia. Fred Voigt, legal counsel for the city commissioners, said these kinds of face-offs happen "with regularity" in the City of Brotherly Love.


And apparently, you missed the part where it is "face-offs" that happen with regularity, not people being thrown out, which is what Mr. Bees actually said.
 
2012-11-06 02:13:35 PM

mrshowrules: SuperNinjaToad: The odds of Louisiana going to Romney is about the same as the odds that OH will be close.

Not sure I understand. Ohio won't be close?


What?! No I mean it's a sure thing that OH will be close just like LA is a sure thing for Romney.
 
2012-11-06 02:17:30 PM

SuperNinjaToad: mrshowrules: SuperNinjaToad: The odds of Louisiana going to Romney is about the same as the odds that OH will be close.

Not sure I understand. Ohio won't be close?

What?! No I mean it's a sure thing that OH will be close just like LA is a sure thing for Romney.


Got it. Anyways, one of Romney's biggest problems is didn't have enough sure things in terms of EV. To few ways to win compared to Obama even if all the battle ground States were coin flips.
 
2012-11-06 02:26:09 PM

Deucednuisance: Purdue_Pete: You must have missed this part where your own city legal team said "yeah, it happens all the time, totally normal" then?

Despite the high number of officials who were allegedly booted, the dispute itself is not uncommon for Philadelphia. Fred Voigt, legal counsel for the city commissioners, said these kinds of face-offs happen "with regularity" in the City of Brotherly Love.

And apparently, you missed the part where it is "face-offs" that happen with regularity, not people being thrown out, which is what Mr. Bees actually said.


Happened as well in 2010.
http://www.seventy.org/OurViews_Improving_Philadelphias_Elections_Nov e mber_2010.aspx
 
2012-11-06 02:32:52 PM

Sock Ruh Tease: Even With A Chainsaw: MemeSlave: Headso: I hope the guy is right, supreme court justice appointees alone are a reason to fear a bishop president.

As opposed to a Catholic one? Or a Muslim? Or a Jew?

Or a queen, king, knight, rook, pawn?

[i.imgur.com image 328x640]


That last one should be a tiddlywink.
 
2012-11-06 02:35:58 PM

God Is My Co-Pirate: Earpj: theorellior: I'm not gonna unclench until the magic number 270 show up and corks start flying at the Obama campaign HQ.

I'll be clenching right along with you.

I am Toby right now:


I'm stepping outside right now to spin around 3 times and spit. Or curse. I'LL DO BOTH
 
2012-11-06 02:37:44 PM
Obama. Book it. Done.
 
2012-11-06 03:13:16 PM

Thunderpipes: eiger: Thunderpipes: I think Obama will win.

Sucky thing is, 7% unemployment and trillion dollar deficits, 2% growth is the new America under Democrat rule, and you guys love it. I have a one year old, he will have to contend with 30-40 trillion dollars of US debt by the time he is in college.

Just too many lazy, stupid young people around, and they breed much faster than working people. Democrats give money to people in exchange for votes, get elected, and the cycle repeats. We are Greece within a decade, but much more heavily armed.

Odd. B/c if you look at the actual numbers since World War II, it's the republicans who have been fiscally profligate with their tax cuts. Democratic presidents generally try to pay for their programs. But you go on believing the stories you've been told rather than the actual facts.

Facts are Obama just added 6 trillion to the debt in 4 years, and the outlook means at least another 4 if he gets elected. Facts are we have terribly growth, terrible unemployment, entitlement spending is exploding, and people are dropping out of the work force.

math does not lie. In no way can anything about the economy be called good. And Republicans had nothing to do with the housing crisis which caused the recession, no matter how much you want it to. We are done, period. At a certain point, you just cannot recover. Interest payments alone on the debt are now 350 billion a year I believer. 4 more years of Bambam it will be at 500 billion. Will just go up from there. Can tax the rich all you want, won't make a dent and will just slow growth.

Fact that Obama is even in the race shows how far we have fallen as a country. Think about it, you tools are orgasmic to vote for a President who is responsible for the worst financial outlook for the country in your life. Its like you want to be kicked in the junk. Half of college grads can't get a decent job, and you still orgasm over Obama? Just nuts.


So let's replace him with the party who got us into the worst financial outlook in the first place? Are you hoping lightning doesn't strike twice? That trickle-down and taxing the middle class into poverty will, after a history of failing miserably, suddenly magically heal America? You have to deliberately ignore the economic and unemployment recovery, and the Republican attempts to stop it, in order to be this whiny about Obama.
 
2012-11-06 03:33:20 PM

MemeSlave: As opposed to a Catholic one? Or a Muslim? Or a Jew?


Aren't most justices Catholics or Jews? Dammit, it's always the Papists and Jooz farking things up!
/kidding, leave me alone...please?
 
2012-11-06 03:36:11 PM

aquigley: Obama. Book it. Done.


You. Are. KILLING ME!!!

/perhaps a bit superstitious
 
2012-11-06 03:47:40 PM

theorellior: MemeSlave: As opposed to a Catholic one? Or a Muslim? Or a Jew?

Call me when a Catholic bishop, a rabbi or an imam are running for president.


Is this some kind of joke?
 
2012-11-06 03:48:58 PM
This election is gonna be far from close, and here's a list of reasons why Romney will win the election even though (almost) everyone and their grandma missed the signs:

-First off, according to Bickers and Berry (who are liberal academics from a liberal college institution), their research shows that both state and national economic factors have a tremendous impact on whether a president gets reelected or not. Their model at present shows that the economy has worsened and in such conditions Obama is slated to lose by a landslide to the challenger (Romney). Of course, there will be the people who will dismiss this with the "But polling is the best way to guess how the election is going to turn out!" Well, that brings us to the next point.

-Polling has been gradually getting less and less reliable in the last few elections, and ther are two big reasons for this. One is that polling and polling well costs money and resources. Various news media outlets and the like are going broke and losing ratings across the board. The result is less thorough polling leading to less comprehensive polls. The second reason is because voters are becoming less and less inclined to be polled in recent years, which in turn just compounds the first problem. The result is that only places with the money and resources and time to poll effectively can do so with any measure of accuracy and right now that would be Gallup and Rasmussen. Even then, in the future these two will probably continue to suffer from what the smaller media networks and outlets are going through. Oh yeah, and those two are showing a Romney win as well, matching up with the B&B projection.

-The third factor, of course, is the one that everyone (save the B&B people) is missing: Massive electorate rage. With the actual unemployment being closer to 15% and Obamacare being shoved down the electorate's vote despite vehement rejection of it, there are a lot of pissed off people in this country right now. A lot of them do not go on the internet but they are there. A big wild card this election has been the Tea Party, who has effectively hijacked Romney's campaign from the GOP and made it into their own (which the GOP itself is not happy about and is terrifying both parties). Romney was meant to lose against Obama so that Jeb Bush could run in 2016 but the Tea Party is tired of being presented with shiatty representation so they are hijacking the GOP and the election, especially with how weak Obama's position really is right now. Of course, there are already signs that victory is assured for Romney, so here they are:

-Both campaigns have their own internal polling that they don't share with the public. They pay through the nose for this polling as it has to be accurate. Back in 2008 McCain goes back to DC and Obama takes a vacation near the end of the election. Internal polling was showing the outcome of the election was already decided. Furthermore, keep in mind that Nate Silver was being fed this internal polling by the Obama campaign. He kept this fact to himself while doing "analysis" and claiming it to be his own. But I digress.

-In 2012 we have some signs of an Obama loss. First is the debates. Romney had a pissed off electorate behind him so he was very aggressive on subjects that the electorate was aggressive on (the economy), while Obama for the most part seemed to not want to be there. Likely internal polling is showing them what everyone else is missing and is what actually shaped the way the debates went. There's also Obama taking a random trip to the Hoover Dam. Why do that if he's a shoe-in for another 4 years? Finally, Obama bought a house in Hawaii recently, why? Because he's got somewhere to move to after this election is over. The only reason to keep campaigning now is to prevent the party from deteriorating further in future elections, which is likely to happen anyways as the factions inside the Democratic Party turn on each other after this election.

-Nate Silver's career is over after this election. His entire career was thanks to being fed internal polling data and claiming it was his own analysis, and he's gonna be skewered on this issue after the election results come in. Bill Clinton campaigning in swing states at the last minute alone shows how outrageous his numbers are how out of touch with the reality on the ground they are. He alone is going to be responsible for the meltdown of a lot of voters tomorrow and his credibility will be destroyed. Hopefully in the future we'll be relying on B&B's method of using economic factors to determine election outcomes as the economy fundamentally has greater control over how people vote than anything else.

I imagine I'll be laughed at for this but in a few hours reality is gonna bear this out.
 
2012-11-06 03:52:10 PM

Thunderpipes: Just wish even once, you liberals and your Messiah would explain how exploding the national debt and discouraging success leads us to long term, or even short term economic prosperity. Even the CBO has a damned gloomy forecast for the country.

You literally don't care about the future. At the end of his second term, Obama will have added more debt to the country than all Presidents in history that came before him, combined. And once again, you guys are all for that. It is not even a defensible position, no wonder you avoid talking about it.


Like all Republicans you are happy to tell me how i feel, what I am supposed to think and what is my motivation.
Nevermind that there were 16 graphs posted explaining why you are wrong.
Businessmen used to win by finding oppertunity in government action now they whine like little biaotches because of circumstances.
be a capitalist FFS and go make some money or just shut up.
 
2012-11-06 04:11:43 PM

God Is My Co-Pirate: TOBY
By tempting fate!



Wouldn't want to draw down the wrath of whatever from high atop the thing.

/ Obama is going to hand Rmoney an epic smackdown. If a Republican could have won this race, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie would have run.
 
x23
2012-11-06 04:18:28 PM

barbu: He didn't say he didn't want religious people, he said he didn't want bishops or the equivalent. Probably because he suspects they would make awful decisions based on what was best for sky space jesus and not the usa.


fixed for accuracy. that this was barely mentioned in the campaign is appalling.

no problems jabbering on and on about Rev. Wright in 2008... but legitimately anti-christian space jesus? not a peep.
 
2012-11-06 04:20:53 PM

Monkeyhouse Zendo: Leeds: Evidently it's because I don't read the New York Times.

// I just googled him, evidently he's one of those NYT folks.

He did baseball statistics prior to turning his attention to political statistics. He's so accurate that in the middle ages he'd probably have been accused of witchcraft. The move of his political statistics bloc, fivethirtyeight, was a relatively recent thing and his analysis factored heavily into reporting for the not only this election but the last two election cycles.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver


And he weighs as much as a duck.

Is Nate Silver a Witch?
 
2012-11-06 04:25:58 PM

hugram: Thunderpipes: ... math does not lie. In no way can anything about the economy be called good...

Fact that Obama is even in the race shows how far we have fallen as a country. Think about it, you tools are orgasmic to vote for a President who is responsible for the worst financial outlook for the country in your life. Its like you want to be kicked in the junk. Half of college grads can't get a decent job, and you still orgasm over Obama? Just nuts.

Horrific math and such below...


Hugram, do you have this compiled anywhere else that I may link to? Would really love to share.
 
2012-11-06 04:26:25 PM

BobBoxBody: I imagine I'll be laughed at for this but in a few hours reality is gonna bear this out.


You wanna bet?
 
x23
2012-11-06 04:30:13 PM

Thunderpipes: Sucky thing is, 7% unemployment and trillion dollar deficits, 2% growth is the new America under Democrat rule, and you guys love it. I have a one year old, he will have to contend with 30-40 trillion dollars of US debt by the time he is in college.



the children of willfully ignorant fact averse hillbillies rarely go to college.
 
2012-11-06 04:33:40 PM

narocroc: hugram: Thunderpipes: ... math does not lie. In no way can anything about the economy be called good...

Fact that Obama is even in the race shows how far we have fallen as a country. Think about it, you tools are orgasmic to vote for a President who is responsible for the worst financial outlook for the country in your life. Its like you want to be kicked in the junk. Half of college grads can't get a decent job, and you still orgasm over Obama? Just nuts.

Horrific math and such below...

Hugram, do you have this compiled anywhere else that I may link to? Would really love to share.


give me you email address. I'll send you the html links to all of them.
 
2012-11-06 04:33:42 PM

Magnanimous_J: BobBoxBody: I imagine I'll be laughed at for this but in a few hours reality is gonna bear this out.

You wanna bet?


If I was sitting in a bar with you watching the election, yes. Unfortunately the idea of making bets on the internets is very iffy with me.
 
2012-11-06 04:55:43 PM

hugram: narocroc: hugram:...

give me you email address. I'll send you the html links to all of them.


narocroc at gmail
 
2012-11-06 04:56:00 PM

BobBoxBody: Magnanimous_J: BobBoxBody: I imagine I'll be laughed at for this but in a few hours reality is gonna bear this out.

You wanna bet?

If I was sitting in a bar with you watching the election, yes. Unfortunately the idea of making bets on the internets is very iffy with me.


Tell us why the flip-flopping coward businessman Mormon is better for the country.
 
2012-11-06 05:23:17 PM

Keizer_Ghidorah: BobBoxBody: Magnanimous_J: BobBoxBody: I imagine I'll be laughed at for this but in a few hours reality is gonna bear this out.

You wanna bet?

If I was sitting in a bar with you watching the election, yes. Unfortunately the idea of making bets on the internets is very iffy with me.

Tell us why the flip-flopping coward businessman Mormon is better for the country.


Because Clayton Christensen is good friends with him. Learning that swayed me to Romney. It's very likely Romney got his business chops from Christensen, who himself was a very successful businessman before going to Harvard and becoming world-reknowned for his research into innovation and turning failing businesses around with his disruption model. Nintendo (with the DS and Wii) and Intel (with the Celeron processor) are two companies that he's indirectly or directly turned around with his work. He's also written some very insightful books on how to fix the growing problems in both education and healthcare that has been tested successfully in the country.

Christensen's disruption model explains Schumpeter's "creative destruction" occurs and helps show how it allows that to happen. On top of that, he's also worked as a missionary, and is very much of the mind that business and management is about character and community building. He has a very strong ethical track record and an all-around decent human being. Which intuits to me that if he's friends with Romney, Romney may very well be as well.

One thing is for certain: Christensen's work will likely be molding our future economic policy under Romney, so if you wanna heads up on what that is, start reading

-The Innovator's Dilemma
-Blue Ocean Strategy
-Disrupting Class
-The Innovator's Prescription.
-Among other works he's done, you can also find seminars and interviews he's done on youtube very easily. Among my favorites is his talking about how solar power will likely take root in countries like Mongolia because they are mostly without electricity and using crappy solar cell-powered portable TVs because the alternative is better than nothing, which will gradually lead them work with it and improve it over time until it becomes good enough for the most demanding consumers of electricty (us), wherein solar power will take off into the mainstream.

I imagine you all will try to warp this into a bad thing, of course. If anything is gonna overhaul our shiatty infastructure and shiatty economy, it's his work. At least his work has been tested and found to be successful in this country and all over the world. Can't really say the same for Obama and economic policies. Oh wait, they just made things worse.
 
2012-11-06 05:23:57 PM
BobBoxBody:

Where did you get this idea that Obama bought a house in Hawaii? I looked it up and the first result is to the Weekly World News. Do you get your news from the checkout line at the grocery store?
 
2012-11-06 05:34:27 PM

BobBoxBody: Keizer_Ghidorah: BobBoxBody: Magnanimous_J: BobBoxBody: I imagine I'll be laughed at for this but in a few hours reality is gonna bear this out.

You wanna bet?

If I was sitting in a bar with you watching the election, yes. Unfortunately the idea of making bets on the internets is very iffy with me.

Tell us why the flip-flopping coward businessman Mormon is better for the country.

Because Clayton Christensen is good friends with him. Learning that swayed me to Romney. It's very likely Romney got his business chops from Christensen, who himself was a very successful businessman before going to Harvard and becoming world-reknowned for his research into innovation and turning failing businesses around with his disruption model. Nintendo (with the DS and Wii) and Intel (with the Celeron processor) are two companies that he's indirectly or directly turned around with his work. He's also written some very insightful books on how to fix the growing problems in both education and healthcare that has been tested successfully in the country.

Christensen's disruption model explains Schumpeter's "creative destruction" occurs and helps show how it allows that to happen. On top of that, he's also worked as a missionary, and is very much of the mind that business and management is about character and community building. He has a very strong ethical track record and an all-around decent human being. Which intuits to me that if he's friends with Romney, Romney may very well be as well.

One thing is for certain: Christensen's work will likely be molding our future economic policy under Romney, so if you wanna heads up on what that is, start reading

-The Innovator's Dilemma
-Blue Ocean Strategy
-Disrupting Class
-The Innovator's Prescription.
-Among other works he's done, you can also find seminars and interviews he's done on youtube very easily. Among my favorites is his talking about how solar power will likely take root in countries like Mongolia because they are mo ...


Which is why the economy has been steadily getting better and unemployment has been going down since mid-2009. And that's with the right doing everything they can to stop it.

If the right was that concerned with helping America recover, why didn't they help during the country's time of need?
 
2012-11-06 05:51:35 PM
"Unemployment" has gone down because people have stopped looking for them. Real figures is somewhere around 15%, maybe more.

You also seemed to mention the part where the Tea Party commenced a hostile takeover of the GOP. The Tea Party is mainly comprised of D/R/I voters from the Reagan era who are fed up with the GOP running from Reagan's approach to business and economics.

Obama and the Dems thought he was gonna be the next FDR. Unfortunately they didn't realize that the Industrial Revolution was dead and a new one had taken its place, one where Reagan's economic conservatism and a greater focus on financial and business learning among the electorate will make a greater fit. The old institutions of the New Deal and the Industrial Era are on the way out, and the old political machines that worked the levers are on the way out with them. Obamacare was just a bailout for the healthcare industry, and that's why it's so reviled, and that more than anything is why Obama will be getting tossed to the curb next year.
 
2012-11-06 06:15:07 PM

BobBoxBody: "Unemployment" has gone down because people have stopped looking for them. Real figures is somewhere around 15%, maybe more.

You also seemed to mention the part where the Tea Party commenced a hostile takeover of the GOP. The Tea Party is mainly comprised of D/R/I voters from the Reagan era who are fed up with the GOP running from Reagan's approach to business and economics.

Obama and the Dems thought he was gonna be the next FDR. Unfortunately they didn't realize that the Industrial Revolution was dead and a new one had taken its place, one where Reagan's economic conservatism and a greater focus on financial and business learning among the electorate will make a greater fit. The old institutions of the New Deal and the Industrial Era are on the way out, and the old political machines that worked the levers are on the way out with them. Obamacare was just a bailout for the healthcare industry, and that's why it's so reviled, and that more than anything is why Obama will be getting tossed to the curb next year.


What "Reagan's economic conservatism" looks like:
"From 1981 to 1989, nominal debt held by public nearly tripled." 

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/78/US_Debt_Trend.svg
 
2012-11-06 06:46:37 PM

VendorXeno: I elected to ignore the pollsters and look at the bookies, people who are the most inclined to be objective. Currently Obama is pretty heavily favored.


Where do you think the bookies are getting their odds from?
 
2012-11-06 07:17:05 PM
I'm calling this now for Obama.
 
2012-11-06 07:37:13 PM
Anyone who panders to a religious base doesn't deserve to be elected to any political office.

I have very little respect for deeply religious people as they have no respect for anyone other than their fellow believers.

/Jesus would vote democrat.
 
2012-11-06 08:07:05 PM

Thunderpipes: Fact that Obama is even in the race shows how far we have fallen as a country. Think about it, you tools are orgasmic to vote for a President who is responsible for the worst financial outlook for the country in your life. Its like you want to be kicked in the junk. Half of college grads can't get a decent job, and you still orgasm over Obama? Just nuts.


No, we just want to orgasm all over you.
 
2012-11-06 10:39:14 PM
As of 7:23pm Pacific Time
Let's take a look at the moment. You tell me if it's biased.
Romney:
Michigan (Home state) LOST
Massachusetts (former go) LOST
New Hampshire (Resident state) LOST
California (Resident state) LOST
Wisconsin (Paul Ryan's home state) LOST
OBAMA:
Illinois (Resident state) WIN
California (former resident) WIN
Hawaii (home state) WIN
Connecticut (college days) WIN

It's not only about arithmetic.
 
2012-11-06 11:55:44 PM

BobBoxBody: This election is gonna be far from close, and here's a list of reasons why Romney will win the election even though (almost) everyone and their grandma missed the signs:


So how did all this stupid BS work out for you?
 
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