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(Twitter)   Adding insult to injury, Nate Silver yanks the GOP's safety blanket of national polling data   (twitter.com) divider line 43
    More: Obvious, GOP, obama, FiveThirtyEight, Look Like, safety  
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3215 clicks; posted to Politics » on 06 Nov 2012 at 10:41 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



43 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2012-11-05 11:39:34 PM
At this rate, NYT may have to get the poor guy a security escort. :(
 
2012-11-05 11:44:37 PM

Grand_Moff_Joseph: At this rate, NYT may have to get the poor guy a security escort. :(


I would be worried about Chris Christie's security. Alot nutjobs on the right are losing their shiat about Christie, actually being respectful to Obama.
 
2012-11-05 11:55:05 PM
Does 538 take election fraud into account?
 
2012-11-05 11:58:55 PM

NowhereMon: Does 538 take election fraud into account?


no, but I think that's the model unskewed uses.
 
2012-11-06 12:01:07 AM
How disgustingly disingenuous are Rasmussen and Gallup? Gallup had Romney up 7(!) on October 18th and now they're sprinting back to reality. Rasmussen always does that so I expected it but I figured Gallup would fark that chicken all the way down, Slim Pickens style.
 
2012-11-06 12:14:32 AM

dameron: How disgustingly disingenuous are Rasmussen and Gallup? Gallup had Romney up 7(!) on October 18th and now they're sprinting back to reality. Rasmussen always does that so I expected it but I figured Gallup would fark that chicken all the way down, Slim Pickens style.


Not a chance...they almost always try to revert to close to the mean at the end of the race. Sandy gave them the perfect cover to do so in one step.
 
2012-11-06 12:24:36 AM

Grand_Moff_Joseph: dameron: How disgustingly disingenuous are Rasmussen and Gallup? Gallup had Romney up 7(!) on October 18th and now they're sprinting back to reality. Rasmussen always does that so I expected it but I figured Gallup would fark that chicken all the way down, Slim Pickens style.

Not a chance...they almost always try to revert to close to the mean at the end of the race. Sandy gave them the perfect cover to do so in one step.


Exactly.
 
2012-11-06 12:44:50 AM
oi45.tinypic.com

Cry. More.
 
2012-11-06 12:46:19 AM

dameron: How disgustingly disingenuous are Rasmussen and Gallup? Gallup had Romney up 7(!) on October 18th and now they're sprinting back to reality. Rasmussen always does that so I expected it but I figured Gallup would fark that chicken all the way down, Slim Pickens style.


unlike the other ones who claimed Obama was leading by upwards of 20 points in swing states? But it was nice of them to walk their predictions back to a believable level as it got closer to election day.
 
2012-11-06 08:15:17 AM
I read that as Makers Mark for a second. But I'm an optimist.

Mayor Mark. bleh.
 
2012-11-06 08:33:08 AM

Generation_D: I read that as Makers Mark for a second. But I'm an optimist.

Mayor Mark. bleh.


I should get a bottle of Maker's Mark...
 
2012-11-06 09:11:11 AM

xanadian: Generation_D: I read that as Makers Mark for a second. But I'm an optimist.

Mayor Mark. bleh.

I should get a bottle of Maker's Mark...


Try their "46." It isn't as sweet as Maker's, and is spicier.
 
2012-11-06 09:17:57 AM
Might sound strange, but am I the only one who realized with a touch of delight today that the "now-cast" is the same as the forecast?
 
2012-11-06 09:54:55 AM

Andromeda: Might sound strange, but am I the only one who realized with a touch of delight today that the "now-cast" is the same as the forecast?


Yeah, I noticed that, too. Something about the circle now being complete...
 
2012-11-06 10:10:47 AM

give me doughnuts: xanadian: Generation_D: I read that as Makers Mark for a second. But I'm an optimist.

Mayor Mark. bleh.

I should get a bottle of Maker's Mark...

Try their "46." It isn't as sweet as Maker's, and is spicier.


And you win the award for most genuinely useful information in an election thread.
 
2012-11-06 10:43:52 AM
I guess today isn't the day we stop talking about polls.
 
2012-11-06 10:44:19 AM

Mrbogey: unlike the other ones who claimed Obama was leading by upwards of 20 points in swing states?


We're talking about national polls, we're not talking about swing states, and citation needed.
 
2012-11-06 10:45:15 AM

mrshowrules: Grand_Moff_Joseph: At this rate, NYT may have to get the poor guy a security escort. :(

I would be worried about Chris Christie's security. Alot nutjobs on the right are losing their shiat about Christie, actually being respectful to Obama.


Probably the same people who booed McCain after conceding in 2008 and being respectful to Obama.
 
2012-11-06 10:45:24 AM

Grand_Moff_Joseph: At this rate, NYT may have to get the poor guy a security escort. :(


He'll just hide out at a D&D convention for a few days.
 
2012-11-06 10:46:36 AM

Lost Thought 00: Grand_Moff_Joseph: At this rate, NYT may have to get the poor guy a security escort. :(

He'll just hide out at a D&D convention for a few days.


Won't work, he's skinny
 
2012-11-06 10:48:10 AM

give me doughnuts: xanadian: Generation_D: I read that as Makers Mark for a second. But I'm an optimist.

Mayor Mark. bleh.

I should get a bottle of Maker's Mark...

Try their "46." It isn't as sweet as Maker's, and is spicier.


Will do. I stay away from Maker's as I found it too sweet also. +1 internet for helpful election advice.
 
2012-11-06 10:48:11 AM

Klivian: Lost Thought 00: Grand_Moff_Joseph: At this rate, NYT may have to get the poor guy a security escort. :(

He'll just hide out at a D&D convention for a few days.

Won't work, he's skinny


Yeah, the phrase "skinny nerd" isn't really in the lexicon...
 
2012-11-06 10:49:39 AM
i49.tinypic.com
 
2012-11-06 10:49:46 AM
https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/265835769934012416

Ooooh goody another Florida recount possibility. Hopefully it won't matter.
 
2012-11-06 10:50:34 AM

Empty Matchbook: Klivian: Lost Thought 00: Grand_Moff_Joseph: At this rate, NYT may have to get the poor guy a security escort. :(

He'll just hide out at a D&D convention for a few days.

Won't work, he's skinny

Yeah, the phrase "skinny nerd" isn't really in the lexicon...


You're talking about gaming geeks though, which is a very different crowd.

/plays D&D
//quite fat
///aware stereotype isn't true
 
2012-11-06 10:50:45 AM

GunPlumber: give me doughnuts: xanadian: Generation_D: I read that as Makers Mark for a second. But I'm an optimist.

Mayor Mark. bleh.

I should get a bottle of Maker's Mark...

Try their "46." It isn't as sweet as Maker's, and is spicier.

Will do. I stay away from Maker's as I found it too sweet also. +1 internet for helpful election advice.


I've got some 46 on hand for tonight, regardless of the outcome. I prefer my staple though, which is Bulleit.

/does having a staple bourbon make me an alkie?
//am okay with this
 
2012-11-06 10:54:54 AM

Andy Andy: https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/265835769934012416

Ooooh goody another Florida recount possibility. Hopefully it won't matter.


Dear Florida,
Do the Eastern Timezone folks a favor and go to Obama without needing a recount, so we can go to bed before midnight.

Seriously though if they keep farking up their voting, I'm all for letting the Feds run it for a few election cycles, get your house in order.

/or the UN election monitors, just to troll certain people
 
2012-11-06 10:56:13 AM

vartian: [oi45.tinypic.com image 464x94]

Cry. More.


The hell? Is that guy actually a mayor?

// [don'twanttoliveonthisplanetanymore.jpg]
// being that dumb should hurt
 
2012-11-06 10:57:28 AM

Sasquatchuan: /does having a staple bourbon make me an alkie?


I think I have 5 or 6 different kinds of Jack Daniel's. But I'll have to give Bulleit a try.
 
2012-11-06 10:58:42 AM

Klivian: //quite fat


You're not fat... for a gamer.
 
2012-11-06 11:04:45 AM

ha-ha-guy: Andy Andy: https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/265835769934012416

Ooooh goody another Florida recount possibility. Hopefully it won't matter.

Dear Florida,
Do the Eastern Timezone folks a favor and go to Obama without needing a recount, so we can go to bed before midnight.

Seriously though if they keep farking up their voting, I'm all for letting the Feds run it for a few election cycles, get your house in order.

/or the UN election monitors, just to troll certain people


We should be inviting them in anyway. If we are such a great example of a good and honest democracy then we should show the world how its done. The fact people are against it seriously begs the question why, considering they are monitors only.
 
2012-11-06 11:22:06 AM

92myrtle: mrshowrules: Grand_Moff_Joseph: At this rate, NYT may have to get the poor guy a security escort. :(

I would be worried about Chris Christie's security. Alot nutjobs on the right are losing their shiat about Christie, actually being respectful to Obama.

Christie also presents a much larger target area than the effeminate math twink.


Don't get this part of the criticism/negative coverage coming from that side. I mean, I understand the mentality behind it, but its the mentality of a school bully. "ugh, your wrong because your gay nerd, I don't like numbers, I like beer and weight lifting" Its just, dumb and has no place on the national discourse in any legitimate criticism, yet hear we are.

You would think a News organization would know more about potentially bad press.
 
2012-11-06 11:38:19 AM

Sasquatchuan: GunPlumber: give me doughnuts: xanadian: Generation_D: I read that as Makers Mark for a second. But I'm an optimist.

Mayor Mark. bleh.

I should get a bottle of Maker's Mark...

Try their "46." It isn't as sweet as Maker's, and is spicier.

Will do. I stay away from Maker's as I found it too sweet also. +1 internet for helpful election advice.

I've got some 46 on hand for tonight, regardless of the outcome. I prefer my staple though, which is Bulleit.

/does having a staple bourbon make me an alkie?
//am okay with this


Hey! I also bite The bulleit. Not going to lie it was at costco and The name got me, but i found it quite refreshing!
 
2012-11-06 11:40:09 AM

Wicked Chinchilla: 92myrtle: mrshowrules: Grand_Moff_Joseph: At this rate, NYT may have to get the poor guy a security escort. :(

I would be worried about Chris Christie's security. Alot nutjobs on the right are losing their shiat about Christie, actually being respectful to Obama.

Christie also presents a much larger target area than the effeminate math twink.

Don't get this part of the criticism/negative coverage coming from that side. I mean, I understand the mentality behind it, but its the mentality of a school bully. "ugh, your wrong because your gay nerd, I don't like numbers, I like beer and weight lifting" Its just, dumb and has no place on the national discourse in any legitimate criticism, yet hear we are.

You would think a News organization would know more about potentially bad press.


You understand that the guy leveling that charge is a pasty-faced, doughy, "nerd" with no credentials (real or street-based) and bad math/stats skills?

It'd be like Donald Trump calling Neil deGrasse Tyson an irrelevant, washed-up old fool.

// though "nerds" are usually good at numbers
 
2012-11-06 12:05:01 PM

GunPlumber: give me doughnuts: xanadian: Generation_D: I read that as Makers Mark for a second. But I'm an optimist.

Mayor Mark. bleh.

I should get a bottle of Maker's Mark...

Try their "46." It isn't as sweet as Maker's, and is spicier.

Will do. I stay away from Maker's as I found it too sweet also. +1 internet for helpful election advice.


<csb>
We went to Dallas Comic-Con Fan Days a few weeks ago and attended Lance Henriksen's panel. While the rest of the panels had guests who sipped water throughout their panels, the moderator (and the guy who ran the con) supplied Lance with a bottle of of Maker's Mark. Apparently he'd never tried it--he kept getting distracted while answering questions--"Man, this is good stuff" and "What is this stuff again?" One of the best panels of the day, and either he was play acting or he was a bit tipsy by the end of the panel (two or three glasses in).
</csb> 

/made me want to start a Bad Movie Night and watch some of what he called his "alimony films"
 
2012-11-06 12:27:42 PM

ha-ha-guy: Andy Andy: https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/265835769934012416

Ooooh goody another Florida recount possibility. Hopefully it won't matter.

Dear Florida,
Do the Eastern Timezone folks a favor and go to Obama without needing a recount, so we can go to bed before midnight.

Seriously though if they keep farking up their voting, I'm all for letting the Feds run it for a few election cycles, get your house in order.

/or the UN election monitors, just to troll certain people


I'm all (and so is my friend, a diehard Republican who WILL be voting for Romney/Ryan) for kicking that biatch out of Waukesha County, WI if they haven't already. We both think she's an embarrassment to the state when it comes to voting.

As far as Florida? They should already have monitors, at the least, for another 4 presidential election cycles yet.
 
2012-11-06 02:03:24 PM

Andromeda: Might sound strange, but am I the only one who realized with a touch of delight today that the "now-cast" is the same as the forecast?


As it was, so it is, and so it farking well better be.
 
2012-11-06 02:17:59 PM

Grand_Moff_Joseph: At this rate, NYT may have to get the poor guy a security escort. :(


Republicans have always been good at shooting the messenger.
 
2012-11-06 02:20:21 PM

Andromeda: Might sound strange, but am I the only one who realized with a touch of delight today that the "now-cast" is the same as the forecast?


I saw that. A sublime convergence between hope and reality.
 
2012-11-06 02:23:25 PM

Wicked Chinchilla: ha-ha-guy: Andy Andy: https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/265835769934012416

Ooooh goody another Florida recount possibility. Hopefully it won't matter.

Dear Florida,
Do the Eastern Timezone folks a favor and go to Obama without needing a recount, so we can go to bed before midnight.

Seriously though if they keep farking up their voting, I'm all for letting the Feds run it for a few election cycles, get your house in order.

/or the UN election monitors, just to troll certain people

We should be inviting them in anyway. If we are such a great example of a good and honest democracy then we should show the world how its done. The fact people are against it seriously begs the question why, considering they are monitors only.


I've been assuming the people who so loudly oppose it are the people who believe/hope the GOP is trying to fix the election in their favor.
 
2012-11-06 02:30:57 PM

Sasquatchuan: Bulleit


Bulleit is smooooooth. Me likey.

Sasquatchuan: /does having a staple bourbon make me an alkie?


I have a staple tequila

/El Charro
//or Familia Camarena, if I can get it
 
2012-11-06 05:23:33 PM

theorellior: We're talking about national polls, we're not talking about swing states, and citation needed.


National?

Ok, Pew had Obama winning by a ridiculous 8 points at one point- Link

CNN- Link

And you've got to remember the fark greenlights talking about how ridiculously lopsided it was for Obama in some states.
 
2012-11-07 02:00:30 AM

Klivian: Empty Matchbook: Klivian: Lost Thought 00: Grand_Moff_Joseph: At this rate, NYT may have to get the poor guy a security escort. :(

He'll just hide out at a D&D convention for a few days.

Won't work, he's skinny

Yeah, the phrase "skinny nerd" isn't really in the lexicon...

You're talking about gaming geeks though, which is a very different crowd.

/plays D&D
//quite fat
///aware stereotype isn't true


I don't play anymore, but I was (ironically) in much better shape when I did...
 
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