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(The New York Times)   FiveThirtyEight's final numbers are in: 315.3 to 222.7 EVs for Obama and Romney giving the incumbent a 92.2% chance of victory to Romney's 7.8%   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 78
    More: Followup, United States Senate, FiveThirtyEight, swing states, percentage change, Democrat majority, Democrats, program designer, mid-September  
•       •       •

4062 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 11:40 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



Voting Results (Funniest)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest


Archived thread
2012-11-05 11:48:06 PM  
9 votes:
Nate Silver 2.0 @fivethirtynate
The Forecast and the Nowcast meet. I glimpse boundless realms in their penumbra. Meta-Romney holds a strong lead in the infrared states.
2012-11-05 09:47:17 PM  
9 votes:

DamnYankees: He said in his tweet these numbers are not final. He has more polls to add.


i48.tinypic.com
2012-11-05 09:42:03 PM  
9 votes:
Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.
2012-11-05 11:50:55 PM  
8 votes:

TV's Vinnie: [i49.tinypic.com image 360x270]


quickpic.us
2012-11-05 11:50:32 PM  
8 votes:
i49.tinypic.com
2012-11-06 12:10:16 AM  
7 votes:
i.imgur.com
2012-11-06 01:37:43 AM  
6 votes:
i25.photobucket.com

Severe weather warning: Hurricane Butthurt is expected to make landfall today. Residents in Colorado, Ohio, and Florida are to take extra precautions.
2012-11-06 12:12:14 AM  
6 votes:
Today's NATE SILVER is the greatest threat the Statisticals has ever faced.
2012-11-05 09:42:36 PM  
5 votes:
I'll wait for the polls to be unskewed and the statistical quirks to be harmonized thank you very much
2012-11-06 01:26:01 AM  
4 votes:

Harry_Seldon: Dick Morris called it 5 points in Romney's favor. Does he know something we don't?


Yeah, what whore toe tastes like.
2012-11-06 12:22:57 AM  
4 votes:

@fivethirtynate almost single-handedly justifies the existence of twitter and almost makes this election season bearable.

Is the map contracting? Is the map expanding? I ask the tectonic plates for guidance. Their reply shall take one thousand years.

- Nate Silver 2.0 (@fivethirtynate) November 5, 2012

@thestalwart @jazzshaw Mathematics exists without you, but can you exist without it? Who then is the light, and who is the shadow?

- Nate Silver 2.0 (@fivethirtynate) November 4, 2012

A man boasts to me of Momentum, his greatest invention. "To victory," he cries, taking flight. I light a candle from the wax of his wings.

- Nate Silver 2.0 (@fivethirtynate) November 3, 2012

More polls tonight from @ppppolls. Their raw numerals course through my algorithmic lungs. Carbon dioxide and contextuality is exhaled.

- Nate Silver 2.0 (@fivethirtynate) November 3, 2012
2012-11-06 12:02:54 AM  
4 votes:

BSABSVR: It's almost statistical time.


I'm here, there's nothing to worry about.
2012-11-06 01:16:20 AM  
3 votes:

mrshowrules: HORSE RACE!


Or, in Romney's case, HORSE DANCE!!!1!
2012-11-06 01:01:29 AM  
3 votes:

tjfly: I predict Obama will take the early lead tomorrow... Until Republicans get off work to go vote.


The problem is that a lot of polling places are in schools, which means Republicans won't know how to find them.
2012-11-06 12:47:13 AM  
3 votes:

tjfly: Harvey Keitel said something in Pulp Fiction that applies here.


Do you like oak Jimmy?
2012-11-05 11:51:18 PM  
3 votes:
If Nate Silver is correct, that just means the Democrats cheated and there was voter fraud and he's not a legitimate president so Romney didn't really lose.
2012-11-06 02:18:43 AM  
2 votes:

Triumph: Poor Nate - he never anticipated this:
http://romneymegaprayer.com/


I told them I would pray.
My email... ro­mney­i­sa­mor­mony­ouid­io­ts[nospam-﹫-backwards]li­amg*co­m
2012-11-06 12:57:38 AM  
2 votes:

Blue_Blazer: seventypercent: davidphogan: Pretty sure they've only tried this three times before, and this time the latest poll I showed was 48% statehood with a +/- 3% margin of error.

But if Puerto Rico becomes a state, then we will no longer have a total of 538 electoral votes, and so FiveThirtyEight will have to become something like FiveFortyOne and then nobody's bookmarks will work anymore and this will mean that the Whigs will automatically take control of the House, and you know what that means.

Powder futures skyrocket?


IT MEANS THAT WE GO TO WAR WITH THE COMANCHE NATION

Actually, I don't have the first farking clue about Whig policy and I'm too lazy to look it up, but IMHO the Comanche Nation has been begging for it for a long time now.
2012-11-06 12:45:38 AM  
2 votes:

davidphogan: Pretty sure they've only tried this three times before, and this time the latest poll I showed was 48% statehood with a +/- 3% margin of error.


But if Puerto Rico becomes a state, then we will no longer have a total of 538 electoral votes, and so FiveThirtyEight will have to become something like FiveFortyOne and then nobody's bookmarks will work anymore and this will mean that the Whigs will automatically take control of the House, and you know what that means.
2012-11-06 12:35:14 AM  
2 votes:

furiousxgeorge: Obama is gonna win. Deal With It.


i.imgur.com
2012-11-06 12:28:14 AM  
2 votes:

randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.


Dude, your boy at unskewed moved Romney from 330 to 275. That's after he harmonized his statisticals.

Go stock up on ammo and canned goods or something.
2012-11-06 12:27:55 AM  
2 votes:
OMFG!! FARTBONGO'S CHANCES HAVE JUST NOW DROPPED A FULL 0.2% TO 92.0%, AND ROMNEY'S HAVE INCREASED TO 8.0%!! IT'S ROMNEY'S BIG COMEBACK!! SUCK IT, LIBTARDS!!
2012-11-06 12:11:32 AM  
2 votes:
On an entirely unrelated note, the oil is about to hit the anus. So mine's staying puckered.

/fyi
2012-11-06 12:11:12 AM  
2 votes:

meat0918: Wow.

Just Wow.


I don't see any modified wooden toilet rollers.
2012-11-06 12:06:00 AM  
2 votes:

tjfly: iChat happens when dems run amok and get reelected for decades? Greece. Detroit. Spain. Illinois.


Janet! Dr. Scott! Rocky! Bullwinkle! CHIEF! MCCLOUD!
2012-11-06 12:00:39 AM  
2 votes:

I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE


0%
2012-11-06 12:00:31 AM  
2 votes:

SouthParkCon: Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.


RUSTLE ALL THE JIMMIES
2012-11-06 07:02:54 AM  
1 votes:

BMulligan: By the way, isn't Hart's Location a totally cool name? Makes me think of Arthur C. Clarke's Tales From the White Hart.


In England, it would just mean liking a bad team from North London.
2012-11-06 06:57:07 AM  
1 votes:
Um, how about a spoiler alert, subby, you dick.
2012-11-06 05:59:46 AM  
1 votes:

Solid Muldoon: gayb: Voter fraud on both sides will likely be a wash. Obviously. Anyone who thinks one of the two major political parties in the US has a corner on the ethics market is f*cking delusional.

A wash?

On the Republican side: Governors. Secretaries of State. Heads of Election Commissions. The owners of voting machine companies.

On the Democratic side: That one lady who got caught.


What you don't get is that today millions of black people with go and vote, mostly Democratic, and almost none of them will be arrested for this gross violation of the Constitution.
2012-11-06 05:04:56 AM  
1 votes:
And now, on to getting the 51 polls that actually matter, and the final collapse of Schrödinger's candidate.
2012-11-06 02:13:44 AM  
1 votes:
Poor Nate - he never anticipated this:

http://romneymegaprayer.com/
2012-11-06 02:11:08 AM  
1 votes:

Boxcutta: Ann Coulter is now saying the polls are skewed because of the Bradley effect. I haven't heard that gem since 2008. She was actually making the case that Tea Partiers are afraid to say that they don't like Obama because they'll be branded racists.

Bless her heart.


That sounds retarded
2012-11-06 01:40:49 AM  
1 votes:

BSABSVR: SouthParkCon: Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.

Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.

So how is his math wrong, Dean?


Math changes for the pure of heart.
This is why heathen Greeks and Atheist Scientists think pi ~= 3.1415926 while the Bible states its TRVE value of 3.
2012-11-06 01:35:25 AM  
1 votes:

Tigger: God's Hubris: Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.

I got a dude on Facebook letting everyone know it's gonna be a 377 Romney landslide.

What do they do AFTER they are that wrong?

Is it like Fark Independents where they just pretend it never happened or do they do anything?


By this time on Wednesday, they will all claim to have voted for Gary Johnson. There will be so many who claim to have voted for him that if they actually had, he would have beaten Romney.
2012-11-06 01:18:58 AM  
1 votes:

fqhollis: Somacandra: And others in the NE will be portable trucks with national guard troops around them--and you know libs are allergic to guns and military.

All the liberals are *in* the military. You don't find Young Republicans there.


Impossible. I heard this from both Sean Hannity and Glenn Beck.
2012-11-06 01:18:35 AM  
1 votes:

nmemkha: Would it be awesome if:

[lh6.googleusercontent.com image 400x618]

I don't know much about him, but just the spectacle the absolute media and political frenzy would be awesome. Sadly, its laughably improbable in this universe.


I'm not sure which is dumber: you or the tagline on that poster
2012-11-06 01:14:29 AM  
1 votes:

The Bestest: polls have closed in Dixville Notch, NH.

Obama 5
Romney 5

HORSE RACE!


It was 10 votes and I realized I was a complete idiot for thinking that it mattered but I was relieved for half of them voting for Obama even thought they were predominately Republican in their Governor/Congress votes.
2012-11-06 01:12:56 AM  
1 votes:
Maybe Mittens can be Presnidet of Amercia.

3.bp.blogspot.com
2012-11-06 01:10:41 AM  
1 votes:
Fixed Spelling
img824.imageshack.us
2012-11-06 01:09:31 AM  
1 votes:

GWSuperfan: Granny_Panties: Today's NATE SILVER is the greatest threat the Statisticals has ever faced.

Bah. I've defeated worse.


Statisticals is people!!!
2012-11-06 01:04:24 AM  
1 votes:
Gary Johnson has a little of the Trololo guy vibe.

lh6.googleusercontent.comcache.blippitt.com
2012-11-06 01:00:28 AM  
1 votes:

nyrkah1: As a side note, I was very disappointed to find out Sam Wang's name is pronounced "Wong".

/yes, I'm 12 years old


WHAT!? God damn it.
2012-11-06 12:55:54 AM  
1 votes:
I'll say this for Nate Silver and Sam Wang: If their going to be wrong, they are REALLY going to be wrong.
2012-11-06 12:50:37 AM  
1 votes:
quickpic.us

Seems legit.
2012-11-06 12:50:28 AM  
1 votes:

seventypercent: davidphogan: Pretty sure they've only tried this three times before, and this time the latest poll I showed was 48% statehood with a +/- 3% margin of error.

But if Puerto Rico becomes a state, then we will no longer have a total of 538 electoral votes, and so FiveThirtyEight will have to become something like FiveFortyOne and then nobody's bookmarks will work anymore and this will mean that the Whigs will automatically take control of the House, and you know what that means.


The Powder heavy portfolio will pay dividends to the Whigger investors?
2012-11-06 12:49:02 AM  
1 votes:
images1.wikia.nocookie.net

I'm ready for you conservatives. Lets do this.
2012-11-06 12:48:04 AM  
1 votes:
i.imgur.com
2012-11-06 12:43:12 AM  
1 votes:
Somehow, I still expect Romney to win in a electoral landslide in some Rovian election fixing grand strategy that is barely legal like an eighteen year old teen.
2012-11-06 12:34:09 AM  
1 votes:
2.bp.blogspot.com
2012-11-06 12:34:01 AM  
1 votes:

Notabunny: randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.

Only the Sith deal in absolutes


Well, and the Jedi.
2012-11-06 12:33:24 AM  
1 votes:

randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.


You are playing the short game which is only going to make the long game harder. Admit Romney is going to lose and you can be the first derper on your block with any street cred. When you wake up tomorrow, you can no longer back-out. This is your last chance (I've decided) admit that you think Romney is going to lose and you will retain a shred of credibility. Otherwise, I can't protect you.

/I've been drinking
2012-11-06 12:33:07 AM  
1 votes:

gayb: Voter fraud on both sides will likely be a wash. Obviously. Anyone who thinks one of the two major political parties in the US has a corner on the ethics market is f*cking delusional.



Whoa. I was gonna vote Democrat, but now that you've told my both sides are bad, I don't know which party to vote for.
2012-11-06 12:30:58 AM  
1 votes:

furiousxgeorge: Obama is gonna win. Deal With It.


24.media.tumblr.com
2012-11-06 12:30:44 AM  
1 votes:
Do they sell Nelson Muntz yard signs?
2012-11-06 12:30:16 AM  
1 votes:

Cyberluddite: OMFG!! FARTBONGO'S CHANCES HAVE JUST NOW DROPPED A FULL 0.2% TO 92.0%, AND ROMNEY'S HAVE INCREASED TO 8.0%!! IT'S ROMNEY'S BIG COMEBACK!! SUCK IT, LIBTARDS!!


www.realclearsports.com
2012-11-06 12:26:41 AM  
1 votes:

phritz: A man boasts to me of Momentum, his greatest invention. "To victory," he cries, taking flight. I light a candle from the wax of his wings.


This one makes me feel tingly in my no-no spot.
2012-11-06 12:22:59 AM  
1 votes:

jsteiner78: http://www.unskewedpolls.com


Link

That's a HUGE downturn from where he was at Friday. 330 as I recall.
2012-11-06 12:16:47 AM  
1 votes:

Kevin72: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

That was my brother-in-law. I'm sure of it. He wasn't going to vote again for Obama. I guess change was too slow. But he must have snapped out of it at the last minute.


Tell him a grateful nation says "Thanks" then punch him in the arm for making that grateful nation worry about him voting for Romney.
2012-11-06 12:11:26 AM  
1 votes:

Bucky Katt: I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE

Somewhere between diddly and squat


So you're saying there's a chance?
2012-11-06 12:11:21 AM  
1 votes:

Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.


you mean it's a day that ends in a "y"
2012-11-06 12:06:23 AM  
1 votes:

I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE


Somewhere between diddly and squat
2012-11-06 12:05:46 AM  
1 votes:
Harvey Keitel said something in Pulp Fiction that applies here.
2012-11-06 12:04:50 AM  
1 votes:

God's Hubris: Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.

I got a dude on Facebook letting everyone know it's gonna be a 377 Romney landslide.


Awesome. Screencaps of his subsequent meltdown are required.
2012-11-06 12:03:17 AM  
1 votes:
Given that the Republicans have purged voter rolls, cut back voting days in Democratic districts, failed to send ballots to those that requested them a month ago, passed laws saying your voter registration card wasn't good enough any more, and Mitt Romney's kid bought the voting machine company...

Obama in a landslide.

Americans are stupid. But we ain't that stupid.
2012-11-06 12:02:52 AM  
1 votes:

Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.


I got a dude on Facebook letting everyone know it's gonna be a 377 Romney landslide.
2012-11-05 11:59:44 PM  
1 votes:
I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE
2012-11-05 11:59:04 PM  
1 votes:
Numbers have been updated.

Mitt Romney is now an 8% favorite. Mittmentum!!!
2012-11-05 11:57:13 PM  
1 votes:

Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.


Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.
2012-11-05 11:53:47 PM  
1 votes:
C'mon, has an effeminate man ever been right? In history?

I don't think so.
2012-11-05 11:53:18 PM  
1 votes:

ManateeGag: cameroncrazy1984: ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.

:(

I'm a long suffering Mets fan myself.


Halloween's a bigger let down than being a Mets fan.
2012-11-05 11:51:13 PM  
1 votes:
Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.
2012-11-05 11:50:45 PM  
1 votes:

skepticultist: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Hurricane State + Christie's Praise For Obama + Mitt's Privatize FEMA Comment = Obama Wins Florida


Bill Clinton made several campaign stops here a couple of days ago. That Bubba is still one silver tongued devil.
2012-11-05 11:49:22 PM  
1 votes:

WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?


That was my brother-in-law. I'm sure of it. He wasn't going to vote again for Obama. I guess change was too slow. But he must have snapped out of it at the last minute.
2012-11-05 11:43:15 PM  
1 votes:
FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.
2012-11-05 09:54:46 PM  
1 votes:

Coolfusis: The prospect of a Romney presidency farking terrifies me. Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term - but that it would be a sign from the voters to the GOP that you can lie, cheat, flip-flop, and just generally be dicks and we'll let you do it.


Not to mention HE STILL HASNT RELEASED HIS TAX RETURNS. What the fark.
2012-11-05 09:50:42 PM  
1 votes:
It's almost statistical time.
2012-11-05 09:42:31 PM  
1 votes:

ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.


:(
 
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