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(The New York Times)   FiveThirtyEight's final numbers are in: 315.3 to 222.7 EVs for Obama and Romney giving the incumbent a 92.2% chance of victory to Romney's 7.8%   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 78
    More: Followup, United States Senate, FiveThirtyEight, swing states, percentage change, Democrat majority, Democrats, program designer, mid-September  
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4059 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 11:40 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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Archived thread
2012-11-05 09:51:49 PM
14 votes:

flucto: All this really reminds me of 2004.


As confident as I am in numbers, I can't help but think there's going to be an awful lot of shenanigans tomorrow. I can say for the first time ever that I am actually worried about how this election will turn out.

The prospect of a Romney presidency farking terrifies me. Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term - but that it would be a sign from the voters to the GOP that you can lie, cheat, flip-flop, and just generally be dicks and we'll let you do it. Not only will we let you do it, we'll give you the keys to the highest office in the country.

What would that say about us?
2012-11-06 12:07:24 AM
5 votes:

SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.


I know that this is a popular theory among conservatives, but I just don't get it.

See, here's the thing. If I'm a pollster, and I'm in the tank for a certain political candidate, the absolute best thing that I can do for that candidate is to get my polls right. This idea that I'm going to manipulate the poll numbers to make the situation for "my candidate" seem better than it actually is makes no sense at all.

This would be like going to the doctor to get your blood pressure taken, and then telling the doctor to knock a few points off both numbers before he tells you the results. Guess what? If you have high blood pressure, you're better off knowing that it's high. Having your doctor massage the numbers before he gives them to you just to make you feel better about your health is not going to help you.

Similarly, if "my candidate" is down by two points in a state, it doesn't do anybody any good for me to fudge the numbers to make it look like he's up by two points. If "my candidate" is down by two points, then he or she needs that information so that informed and educated decisions can be made about how to allocate campaign funds, canvassing staff, advertisements, etc. That can only happen if the numbers that I'm reporting are as accurate as I can possibly make them.

The idea that skewed polls serve to demoralize and depress conservatives to keep them at home on election day has absolutely no basis in reality. If anything, these polls further energize conservatives to attempt to swing the balance back in Romney's favor. They even run the risk of causing Democrats to become complacent and say "Ehh, I'm not going to stand in line for two hours, Obama's got this."

I don't care what the projections and the polls say. If you're an Obama voter in a swing state and you haven't already voted, get your ass out there and vote tomorrow. Hell, if you're a Romney voter, you get your ass out there and vote as well. There's no excuse for not voting.

Finally, Silver's credibility is on the line here. If he's ridiculously wrong, he will have shot it. I don't think he's willing to do that for some conspiracy theory about suppressing Republican vote. It just doesn't pass the smell test.
2012-11-06 12:15:06 AM
4 votes:

seventypercent: See, here's the thing. If I'm a pollster, and I'm in the tank for a certain political candidate, the absolute best thing that I can do for that candidate is to get my polls right. This idea that I'm going to manipulate the poll numbers to make the situation for "my candidate" seem better than it actually is makes no sense at all.


Here's the thing: In the wingnut welfare world, people are rewarded for doing the team's bidding, not for any type of insight or accuracy. It's why Dick Morris and Bill Kristol are multimillionaires and it's why Ann Coulter books are bestsellers yet available for free when you subscribe to Human Events.

Unable to comprehend that the rest of the world works differently, they think that Nate Silver got hid job with the Times by being in the tank for team blue. And that every pollster is paid by David Axelrod or something.

For being the party that is supposedly pro-business, they have zero idea how polling firms work.
2012-11-06 12:03:17 AM
4 votes:
Given that the Republicans have purged voter rolls, cut back voting days in Democratic districts, failed to send ballots to those that requested them a month ago, passed laws saying your voter registration card wasn't good enough any more, and Mitt Romney's kid bought the voting machine company...

Obama in a landslide.

Americans are stupid. But we ain't that stupid.
2012-11-05 09:54:12 PM
4 votes:

Coolfusis: Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term


I dunno, I'd be willing to bet that we'll be at war with Iran within six months of him taking office, that's what terrifies me.
2012-11-06 12:18:08 AM
3 votes:

SouthParkCon: Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.


Since multiple and independent analyses are converging on the same answer (that Obama will win by a lot), what you really need to demonstrate is that someone using the same datasets and methodologies is predicting that Romney wins.

Even so, the weight of evidence points to an Obama victory according to mathematical analysis of polling data. Nothing too mysterious. Definitely not something you're going to transparently be able to manipulate to support whatever arbitrary view you hold.

If Obama doesn't end up winning, the problem doesn't lie with the mathematics, but with the quality of the source data (i.e. polling data).
2012-11-06 12:17:05 AM
3 votes:

SouthParkCon: Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.

Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.


Nate Silver has NOTHING to gain by being wrong.
Nate Silver has LOTS to lose by being wrong.
2012-11-06 12:16:46 AM
3 votes:

The Lone Gunman: ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.

Yeah, if that was a strategy for Obama, to tank the first one so he could look strong in the next two, whoever gave him that strategy should be fired. That only works for candidates who are not strong speakers and not exactly impressive on facts and details. It worked brilliantly for Bush Jr, but that kind of strategy wouldn't work for, say, Cory Booker, Bobby Jindal, and didn't for Obama.



I honestly think the problem with that debate was that the moderation was so bad and Romney was so much more aggressive than anyone was prepared for- shouting over the moderator, talking over the President, etc.

I think he probably intended not to go for the jugular in that debate because he was so far ahead that his game was not to say something that would become controversial, but it backfired.
2012-11-06 12:12:46 AM
3 votes:
I will not relax until they call it. until then I still believe that the GOP will try to steal it.
2012-11-06 01:35:25 AM
2 votes:

Tigger: God's Hubris: Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.

I got a dude on Facebook letting everyone know it's gonna be a 377 Romney landslide.

What do they do AFTER they are that wrong?

Is it like Fark Independents where they just pretend it never happened or do they do anything?


By this time on Wednesday, they will all claim to have voted for Gary Johnson. There will be so many who claim to have voted for him that if they actually had, he would have beaten Romney.
2012-11-06 12:37:27 AM
2 votes:

gayb: Voter fraud on both sides will likely be a wash. Obviously. Anyone who thinks one of the two major political parties in the US has a corner on the ethics market is f*cking delusional.


A wash?

On the Republican side: Governors. Secretaries of State. Heads of Election Commissions. The owners of voting machine companies.

On the Democratic side: That one lady who got caught.
2012-11-06 12:30:44 AM
2 votes:
Do they sell Nelson Muntz yard signs?
2012-11-06 12:12:14 AM
2 votes:
Today's NATE SILVER is the greatest threat the Statisticals has ever faced.
2012-11-06 12:04:06 AM
2 votes:

WalkingCarpet: Coolfusis: Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term

I dunno, I'd be willing to bet that we'll be at war with Iran within six months of him taking office, that's what terrifies me.


As if there weren't other reasons, this alone is why Obama gets my vote. I'm not interested in again having that mildly uneasy feeling I had after 2000, and that utterly disgusted feeling I had after 2004. Fark that. No farking way those neocon pigs are running us into the ground again.
2012-11-05 11:54:41 PM
2 votes:

Kevin72: ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.

You sound too young to know about the 1969 Cubs. Or Mets.


my comment is a reference to the 2007 season when they lost 12/17 and ended the season in second place and didn't make the playoffs.
2012-11-05 11:51:16 PM
2 votes:
landslides of butthurt ahead
2012-11-05 11:50:06 PM
2 votes:
Imagine what the numbers would look like if Obama had even displayed having pulse in the first debate instead of being an add for Ambien
2012-11-05 11:47:21 PM
2 votes:

WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?


Hurricane State + Christie's Praise For Obama + Mitt's Privatize FEMA Comment = Obama Wins Florida
2012-11-05 11:45:34 PM
2 votes:
7.8% is too high a chance for a derp-flopper like Romney to win such a position of power and responsibility.
2012-11-05 09:54:46 PM
2 votes:

Coolfusis: The prospect of a Romney presidency farking terrifies me. Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term - but that it would be a sign from the voters to the GOP that you can lie, cheat, flip-flop, and just generally be dicks and we'll let you do it.


Not to mention HE STILL HASNT RELEASED HIS TAX RETURNS. What the fark.
2012-11-05 09:43:57 PM
2 votes:
All this really reminds me of 2004.
2012-11-05 09:42:31 PM
2 votes:

ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.


:(
2012-11-05 09:42:03 PM
2 votes:
Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.
2012-11-06 07:02:54 AM
1 votes:

BMulligan: By the way, isn't Hart's Location a totally cool name? Makes me think of Arthur C. Clarke's Tales From the White Hart.


In England, it would just mean liking a bad team from North London.
2012-11-06 06:05:56 AM
1 votes:
Think of Seamus: Vote Obama.
2012-11-06 05:04:56 AM
1 votes:
And now, on to getting the 51 polls that actually matter, and the final collapse of Schrödinger's candidate.
2012-11-06 04:40:18 AM
1 votes:

randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.


And just to show that anything can happen; You are (almost) correct!
Nate Silver only analyzes poll data. His predictions are only as good as the polling. He is not making any guesses here, only crunching what the polling numbers say overall.
/That being said, even if the polls are even 75% correct- Obama still wins. This is why you are not really correct.
//Funny thing about Silver's methodology is that if Romney somehow wins the day, Nate Silver still is not wrong. His predictions include a possible Romney victory. 8% chance of it! That's one in 12.5 odds. Somebody get me a 12.5 sided die and let's see how comfortable that feels considering what is on the line.
2012-11-06 03:14:39 AM
1 votes:

ilambiquated: This election is over. The freepers are already celebrating their victory.

http://www.natesilverwaswrong.com/


Lets just see if we can't figure this out.

Whois gives us Godaddy. No help there.

IP is http://50.63.188.66/

Which pops Atlassurvivalshelters.com

Designed and hosted by: http://www.cmlmediagroup.com/

Great troll or greatest troll?
2012-11-06 02:18:43 AM
1 votes:

Triumph: Poor Nate - he never anticipated this:
http://romneymegaprayer.com/


I told them I would pray.
My email... r­omne­yisa­m­ormo­ny­oui­d­iots[nospam-﹫-backwards]lia­mg­*com
2012-11-06 02:11:08 AM
1 votes:

Boxcutta: Ann Coulter is now saying the polls are skewed because of the Bradley effect. I haven't heard that gem since 2008. She was actually making the case that Tea Partiers are afraid to say that they don't like Obama because they'll be branded racists.

Bless her heart.


That sounds retarded
2012-11-06 01:37:43 AM
1 votes:
i25.photobucket.com

Severe weather warning: Hurricane Butthurt is expected to make landfall today. Residents in Colorado, Ohio, and Florida are to take extra precautions.
2012-11-06 01:15:11 AM
1 votes:

Somacandra: And others in the NE will be portable trucks with national guard troops around them--and you know libs are allergic to guns and military.


All the liberals are *in* the military. You don't find Young Republicans there.
2012-11-06 01:14:29 AM
1 votes:

The Bestest: polls have closed in Dixville Notch, NH.

Obama 5
Romney 5

HORSE RACE!


It was 10 votes and I realized I was a complete idiot for thinking that it mattered but I was relieved for half of them voting for Obama even thought they were predominately Republican in their Governor/Congress votes.
2012-11-06 01:12:20 AM
1 votes:

Coolfusis: flucto: All this really reminds me of 2004.

As confident as I am in numbers, I can't help but think there's going to be an awful lot of shenanigans tomorrow. I can say for the first time ever that I am actually worried about how this election will turn out.

The prospect of a Romney presidency farking terrifies me. Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term - but that it would be a sign from the voters to the GOP that you can lie, cheat, flip-flop, and just generally be dicks and we'll let you do it. Not only will we let you do it, we'll give you the keys to the highest office in the country.

What would that say about us?


Well that's easy.

We're a nation that lives on American Idol, Honey Boo-Boo, and Jersey Shore.

We're a nation where people make contradictory statements 5 minutes apart, and the closest anyone comes to blinking is a comedian's comments on Comedy Central.

We're a nation where education, critical thinking, an interest in the facts, and solving problems are all vilified.

In short, we're a country of strung-out "reality show" junkie morons.

/ but we buy stuff
// whatever anyone tells us to buy
/// I have a CSB about slash no. 2, but that would be off-topic
2012-11-06 01:12:05 AM
1 votes:

Omahawg: because SOME polls are unskewed. lol

"Final Projection: Romney 275 electoral votes to Obama 263 electoral votes

The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 50.67 percent of the popular vote and 275 electoral votes to President Obama's 48.88 percent and 263 electoral votes.

QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 36.4 percent Democrats, 36.1 Republicans and 27.5 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 131,165,384 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama."

[unskewedpolls.com image 600x517]

oh, the reality! the huge manatee! either is correct but not unskewed polls


I actually buy that scenario, but with Colorado and/or Virginia blue.
2012-11-06 01:11:59 AM
1 votes:
and thus romney learns campaigning 101: You want to peak on election day, not 6 weeks before at some debate.
2012-11-06 01:11:53 AM
1 votes:

Modguy: Generation_D: epocalypse: I'll say this for Nate Silver and Sam Wang: If their going to be wrong, they are REALLY going to be wrong.

Or it'll help point the finger at the rampant cheating that would have been, presumably, successful.

Also, this. In Silver's case, if states go further than even what Silver would consider possible, that would be reason enough to assume rampant fraud.


Like 2004, Ohio?

Since no one will ever repeat 2000 in the 'fight to the death' department, .... anyway, the other part of that is the Cult of Polls.
2012-11-06 01:10:41 AM
1 votes:
Fixed Spelling
img824.imageshack.us
2012-11-06 01:07:12 AM
1 votes:

Mike Chewbacca: What have we leaned today? That's Freudian.


Thanks. That was one reason to post it here first :-)
2012-11-06 01:01:29 AM
1 votes:

tjfly: I predict Obama will take the early lead tomorrow... Until Republicans get off work to go vote.


The problem is that a lot of polling places are in schools, which means Republicans won't know how to find them.
2012-11-06 12:47:58 AM
1 votes:

Hamilstan: Imagine the world Wednesday if Romney rolls that 20 and wins a squeaker.


www.command-post.org

What a squeaker might look like.
2012-11-06 12:43:15 AM
1 votes:
Assuming that the polling is accurate and that there isn't any broad scale fraud, I am so going to gloat tomorrow night. I know it may be unseemly of me, but I'm still going to do whatever I can to rub it in. I've spent the last few years having to put up with people gloating about the tea party, gloating about passing state level same sex marriage bans, gloating about buying chick-fil-a, heck, gloating about the death of Americans in terror attacks, and you bet your sweet bippy that after all that, I'm going to gloat.
2012-11-06 12:42:57 AM
1 votes:
Imagine the world Wednesday if Romney rolls that 20 and wins a squeaker. Not only can we look forward to Romney's policies being implemented, but Romney is rewarded for his naked avarice and willingness to say anything to win. Science takes another hit with the public. Bright minds like Wang and Silver are "discredited" while the likes of Coulter, Gingrich and even the unskewed-polls buffoon are "vindicated." Just think about that. Someone upthread said the unskewer is now predicting R 275. If Romney does win, that is probably going to be close to his actual EV total. That doofus would be able to ride that prediction for years.

What a nightmare to imagine. And even by Silver's projection, it could conceivably happen.
2012-11-06 12:36:48 AM
1 votes:

Kevin72: Triumph: Nate Silver bases his model on polling. He doesn't factor in vote fraud. That's his Achilles heel.

No. By keeping his integrity, that is how fraud will be proven and John Husted will be jailed.


I agree. Poll aggregators like Nate are doing a public service - if the tallies tomorrow diverge too much from his forecasts they'll be probable cause to investigate fraud.

I'm actually reasonably confident that Obama will win Ohio. His polling in the last few days has been very good. A 4 or 5 percent margin (like in 2008) will be really hard to flip without raising obvious red flags.
2012-11-06 12:35:14 AM
1 votes:

furiousxgeorge: Obama is gonna win. Deal With It.


i.imgur.com
2012-11-06 12:32:49 AM
1 votes:

Triumph: Nate Silver bases his model on polling. He doesn't factor in vote fraud. That's his Achilles heel.


Actually, he kind of does. Link

He frequently errs on the side of caution, and assumes that ALL polls are potentially off by a margin greater than the margin of error. It's why his percent chance of a Romney victory is 20 times higher than Wang's at the Princeton Election Consortium.
2012-11-06 12:30:55 AM
1 votes:
Don't celebrate just yet. If you haven't voted, vote. It doesn't matter if you're state is redder than a baboon's ass. The popular vote needs to be decisive.

A hardcore conservative I know was already hemming and hawing today about how obsolete the electoral college is. If Obama doesn't pull off a decisive electoral and popular vote victory, this will be the new talking point come Wednesday. 2000's goose meets 2012's gander.

This dude's pretty good at figuring out what the next outrage du jour will be.
2012-11-06 12:30:44 AM
1 votes:

SilentStrider: Bucky Katt: I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE

Somewhere between diddly and squat

So you're saying there's a chance?


It would require a number of faithless electors and a screwed up House.

nyrkah1: SouthParkCon: Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.

Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.

Nate Silver has NOTHING to gain by being wrong.
Nate Silver has LOTS to lose by being wrong.


I think you over-estimate how much he has to lose. I really don't think he would mind being pushed out of the mainstream media and I seriously doubt any statistically oriented group would even consider not welcoming him with open arms. If Romney won every state Nate would still be welcome in his old baseball circle.

That said, from everything I have seen of the man and read about and by him (including going back to stuff from his baseball days) he is in this for the numbers, not the politics. He isn't going to throw his stats and models under the bus. It seems like he got into politics because it was an empty space (on the statistical side) full of challenges not because he was wanting to influence the public or go mainstream. And he is already talking about leaving politics to try his statistics in another field.
2012-11-06 12:29:11 AM
1 votes:

Triumph: Nate Silver bases his model on polling. He doesn't factor in vote fraud. That's his Achilles heel.


No. By keeping his integrity, that is how fraud will be proven and John Husted will be jailed.
2012-11-06 12:28:14 AM
1 votes:

randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.


Dude, your boy at unskewed moved Romney from 330 to 275. That's after he harmonized his statisticals.

Go stock up on ammo and canned goods or something.
2012-11-06 12:27:51 AM
1 votes:

Triumph: Nate Silver bases his model on polling. He doesn't factor in vote fraud. That's his Achilles heel.


Perhaps that's because vote fraud is virtually non-existant in this country.
2012-11-06 12:24:51 AM
1 votes:

whidbey: austin_millbarge: Fark that. No farking way those neocon pigs are running us into the ground again.

That.
2012-11-06 12:23:35 AM
1 votes:

The Great EZE: seventypercent: Finally, Silver's credibility is on the line here. If he's ridiculously wrong, he will have shot it. I don't think he's willing to do that for some conspiracy theory about suppressing Republican vote. It just doesn't pass the smell test.

I agree with this point, but you're going to get reminded that Silver never actually made a prediction of a winner, just a forecast of odds for or against a certain candidate.

Personally, I find that to be a semantics-based argument, especially considering the current 92-8 spread. Nate and his supporters need to come to terms with the fact that his odds forecast is being interpreted as a prediction--as it should. Elections aren't games of chance where the winner is decided by random bouncing of ping pong balls. I've always used his quantitative odds numbers to form a more qualitative prediction in my mind: that, if turnout is normal, and if there isn't a massive widespread dismantling of ALL the polls, Obama will win. We're still dealing with if's, but they're manageable if's not dependent on chance.

I may be reading his site wrong and I may be putting him in a position he doesn't want to be in, but that's the reality of his forecasting model. If Romney wins there's going to be 'splaining to do, and rightfully so.


The probabilities of either winning is dependent on state by state and national polling not farking up some where in their methodology. Since he's not savvy in that side of things, he account that it's possible that they farked up somewhere enough that their MOE is bigger than they're stating. If you want to see something akin to Fivethirtyeight that DOESN'T "hedge" in such a fashion, check out the Princeton Election Consortium Link, which has Obama at a 99.8% chance of winning. Also, check out this to get an idea of he differences between the various aggregators (Fivethirtyeight, PEC, etc etc)
2012-11-06 12:23:21 AM
1 votes:

SouthParkCon: Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.


Actually, yes, I'm willing to believe that Silver isn't as much of unprincipled piece of shiat as you are.
2012-11-06 12:16:13 AM
1 votes:

Solid Muldoon: NuttierThanEver: tjfly: Harvey Keitel said something in Pulp Fiction that applies here.

I drive really fast?

Someday all this will be yours?


Just because you are a character doesn't mean that you have character?
2012-11-06 12:14:38 AM
1 votes:

Coolfusis: The prospect of a Romney presidency farking terrifies me. Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term - but that it would be a sign from the voters to the GOP that you can lie, cheat, flip-flop, and just generally be dicks and we'll let you do it. Not only will we let you do it, we'll give you the keys to the highest office in the country.

What would that say about us?


It's difficult to imagine the depths that politics will sink to if the Romney strategy is successful.
2012-11-06 12:13:54 AM
1 votes:

ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.


Yeah, if that was a strategy for Obama, to tank the first one so he could look strong in the next two, whoever gave him that strategy should be fired. That only works for candidates who are not strong speakers and not exactly impressive on facts and details. It worked brilliantly for Bush Jr, but that kind of strategy wouldn't work for, say, Cory Booker, Bobby Jindal, and didn't for Obama.
2012-11-06 12:11:21 AM
1 votes:

Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.


you mean it's a day that ends in a "y"
2012-11-06 12:11:12 AM
1 votes:

meat0918: Wow.

Just Wow.


I don't see any modified wooden toilet rollers.
2012-11-06 12:10:39 AM
1 votes:

seventypercent: I don't care what the projections and the polls say. If you're an Obama voter in a swing state and you haven't already voted, get your ass out there and vote tomorrow. Hell, if you're a Romney voter, you get your ass out there and vote as well. There's no excuse for not voting.


I remember when MO used to be a swing state...

But that being said, I'm voting for Obama and McCaskill tomorrow.
2012-11-06 12:09:15 AM
1 votes:

Tigger: God's Hubris: Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.

I got a dude on Facebook letting everyone know it's gonna be a 377 Romney landslide.

What do they do AFTER they are that wrong?

Is it like Fark Independents where they just pretend it never happened or do they do anything?



I'm predicting copious amounts of election fraud accusations.
2012-11-06 12:06:48 AM
1 votes:

austin_millbarge: Fark that. No farking way those neocon pigs are running us into the ground again.

2012-11-06 12:06:23 AM
1 votes:

I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE


Somewhere between diddly and squat
2012-11-06 12:03:39 AM
1 votes:

God's Hubris: Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.

I got a dude on Facebook letting everyone know it's gonna be a 377 Romney landslide.


What do they do AFTER they are that wrong?

Is it like Fark Independents where they just pretend it never happened or do they do anything?
2012-11-06 12:00:39 AM
1 votes:

I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE


0%
2012-11-06 12:00:31 AM
1 votes:

SouthParkCon: Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.


RUSTLE ALL THE JIMMIES
2012-11-05 11:57:06 PM
1 votes:

ManateeGag: Kevin72: ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.

You sound too young to know about the 1969 Cubs. Or Mets.

my comment is a reference to the 2007 season when they lost 12/17 and ended the season in second place and didn't make the playoffs.


*cough cough*

2011 Boston Red Sox

*cough*
2012-11-05 11:53:19 PM
1 votes:

SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.


Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.
2012-11-05 11:51:24 PM
1 votes:
As a Central Floridian (Seminole County) I can only say that my area is littered with Romney signs and it scares the crap out of me. I've canvassed, I've called, I've put signs in my yard and multiple magnets and stickers on my car. In other words: I've tried to annoy as many Romney supporters in Seminole County as possible.

The good news is that Downtown Orlando is nothing by Obama signs, and I'm hoping that the lack of cell phone polling will help us doing a little surprise swing to blue. Well... lack of cell phone polling and a large rainbow flag flyin' population.

/nntawwt
2012-11-05 11:50:45 PM
1 votes:

skepticultist: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Hurricane State + Christie's Praise For Obama + Mitt's Privatize FEMA Comment = Obama Wins Florida


Bill Clinton made several campaign stops here a couple of days ago. That Bubba is still one silver tongued devil.
2012-11-05 11:50:32 PM
1 votes:
i49.tinypic.com
2012-11-05 11:49:57 PM
1 votes:
With OH, FL, and VA on the east coast it may be an early night... Oh what am I thinking, the media will do their best to keep as many people up all night as they can. My guess is that it will be midnight eastern time before they'll "call it."
2012-11-05 11:44:02 PM
1 votes:
Silver moved Ohio from likely to safe Obama and took it off the competitive states list.

He moved NE-2 from safe Romney to likely Romney and added it to the competitive states list.

That must have been one helluva move in the national polls.
2012-11-05 11:32:24 PM
1 votes:

ManateeGag: NowhereMon: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Florida is on a knifes edge. It will almost certainly wind up in a recount, but at this rate it probably isn't needed for an Obama win.

neither is Ohio.


Ohio is in the nice to have category, if that falls, then it's all over by bedtime. I'm not counting on it, planning on a late night.
2012-11-05 10:14:46 PM
1 votes:

thoughtpol: ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.

c'mon. what about the Red Sox??


I will point you to the 2007 season. hey lost 12 of their last 17 games.
2012-11-05 09:53:07 PM
1 votes:

cameroncrazy1984: ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.

:(


I'm a long suffering Mets fan myself.
2012-11-05 09:45:43 PM
1 votes:

WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?


A majority of the recent polls there show an Obama lead. If Florida goes Democratic, I'm going to be shocked, and I'm really going to have to eat earlier comments that Obama would have been smart to abandon the state. It also shows Virginia relatively safe, in fact exactly as safe as Colorado.

By the way, the last YouGov survey? More than 36,000 likely voters, and gave Obama a 2% lead. I'm not sure what the MOE is for 36,000, but it's small, probably around 1%.
2012-11-05 09:35:42 PM
1 votes:
Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?
 
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