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(The New York Times)   FiveThirtyEight's final numbers are in: 315.3 to 222.7 EVs for Obama and Romney giving the incumbent a 92.2% chance of victory to Romney's 7.8%   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 379
    More: Followup, United States Senate, FiveThirtyEight, swing states, percentage change, Democrat majority, Democrats, program designer, mid-September  
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4060 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 11:40 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-06 06:57:26 AM
If Puerto Rico becomes a state it will be 541 EV's and there is already a prediction there:
http://fivefortyone.com/
Suck it.........
 
2012-11-06 07:02:54 AM

BMulligan: By the way, isn't Hart's Location a totally cool name? Makes me think of Arthur C. Clarke's Tales From the White Hart.


In England, it would just mean liking a bad team from North London.
 
2012-11-06 07:04:18 AM
I might be reading this wrong, but is he also predicting a 99.7% chance of Bachmann losing? And a 93.6% chance of Elizabeth Warren winning?
 
2012-11-06 07:14:58 AM

Genevieve Marie: The Lone Gunman: ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.

Yeah, if that was a strategy for Obama, to tank the first one so he could look strong in the next two, whoever gave him that strategy should be fired. That only works for candidates who are not strong speakers and not exactly impressive on facts and details. It worked brilliantly for Bush Jr, but that kind of strategy wouldn't work for, say, Cory Booker, Bobby Jindal, and didn't for Obama.


I honestly think the problem with that debate was that the moderation was so bad and Romney was so much more aggressive than anyone was prepared for- shouting over the moderator, talking over the President, etc.

.


Yeah Jim Lehrer was freaking awful, he was invisible for the entire debate and didn't bother to interject. This was especially true when Raddatz, Crowley and Bob did much better jobs actually bothering to ask follow-up questions.

Plus Lehrer didn't even bother asking questions about Women's Issues and number of other topics which was helpful to Romney.
 
2012-11-06 07:22:40 AM
OMG, Romney's chances went up .4% overnight. he's making a comeback!
 
2012-11-06 07:36:41 AM
Latest poll:

Romney: 98.7%
Obama: 1.3%

That's from the Rasmussen Car Elevator Owner Poll.
 
2012-11-06 07:38:18 AM

SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.


Nate Silver reports facts.

You however do not.
 
2012-11-06 07:38:42 AM

Kibbler: Latest poll:

Romney: 98.7%
Obama: 1.3%

That's from the Rasmussen Car Elevator Owner Poll.


I hear he's polling at 85% of all Romneys. This means something.
 
2012-11-06 07:42:18 AM
 
2012-11-06 07:54:08 AM

randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.




Q. Is it as wrong to say the Earth is flat as it is to say the Earth is spherical?

A. No, not at all. Though the Earth isn't spherical, it's far closer to a sphere than a flat plane.

/If you can understand the lesson in this, you will understand why your post was stupid.
 
2012-11-06 08:01:51 AM

InmanRoshi: I pretty cool little easy to use EV calculator web app for tonight as the swing state results come in.


saved for later.
 
2012-11-06 08:07:14 AM

randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.


Our farking votes don't get counted with 100% accuracy, but you want a higher standard set for polling and statistics?

Oh, wait...it's randomjsa. Logic, thought and sincerity are foreign to you.
 
2012-11-06 08:09:40 AM
I don't remember the last election at all, but were republicans so willingly lying to themselves about the results? I don't remember unskewed polls or seeing fake maps with WASHINGTON STATE or California in Red....It's like they think lying is some form of black kenyan magic they can use to make Romney win.
 
2012-11-06 08:13:37 AM

SouthParkCon: Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.

Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.


Today I Learned that the Baseball Prospectus is a hard-core leftist publication under the auspices of DailyKOS.
 
2012-11-06 08:16:10 AM

Jaws_Victim: I don't remember the last election at all, but were republicans so willingly lying to themselves about the results? I don't remember unskewed polls or seeing fake maps with WASHINGTON STATE or California in Red....It's like they think lying is some form of black kenyan magic they can use to make Romney win.


They are setting up for the accusations of fraud that will come if Romney actually wins. If all of the aggregators were like Silver and Wang (a good band name by the way), it would be really hard to explain away the rigging that will have to happen for Romney to win. Since they have their own guys doing ridiculously unscientific predictions, they can just point to them and say that not everyone thought it was going to be an Obama blowout. And the media will gladly go along and we will be stuck with Bush III.
 
2012-11-06 08:21:07 AM

LavenderWolf: randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.



Q. Is it as wrong to say the Earth is flat as it is to say the Earth is spherical?

A. No, not at all. Though the Earth isn't spherical, it's far closer to a sphere than a flat plane.

/If you can understand the lesson in this, you will understand why your post was stupid.


Republicans are incapable of acknowledging degrees of confidence, or a range or results/opinions, or a spectrum of thought. Everything is 0% or 100%, completely black or white, you are either with us or against us, either ideologically pure conservative or commie socialist. The polls must be 100% accurate or Romney wins.
 
2012-11-06 08:22:17 AM

Generation_D: BMulligan: By the way, isn't Hart's Location a totally cool name? Makes me think of Arthur C. Clarke's Tales From the White Hart.

In England, it would just mean liking a bad team from North London.


LOL
 
2012-11-06 08:25:38 AM

theknuckler_33: LavenderWolf: randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.



Q. Is it as wrong to say the Earth is flat as it is to say the Earth is spherical?

A. No, not at all. Though the Earth isn't spherical, it's far closer to a sphere than a flat plane.

/If you can understand the lesson in this, you will understand why your post was stupid.

Republicans are incapable of acknowledging degrees of confidence, or a range or results/opinions, or a spectrum of thought. Everything is 0% or 100%, completely black or white, you are either with us or against us, either ideologically pure conservative or commie socialist. The polls must be 100% accurate or Romney wins.


So it seems.
 
2012-11-06 08:48:30 AM

xria: Modguy: Triumph: Nate Silver bases his model on polling. He doesn't factor in vote fraud. That's his Achilles heel.

Actually, he kind of does. Link

He frequently errs on the side of caution, and assumes that ALL polls are potentially off by a margin greater than the margin of error. It's why his percent chance of a Romney victory is 20 times higher than Wang's at the Princeton Election Consortium.

5% of the time polls are off by a margin greater than the margin of error, so if you want to predict election odds to much higher than 90% certainty, then being more conservative than the default 95% confidence level would seem sensible (except in weird situations that don't map to real life).


However because polls are consistently coming up with the same general results the likelihood of random error swinging it one way or the other is diminished (in a large enough sample random errors will cancel out). There basically needs to be systemic bias.
 
2012-11-06 09:13:31 AM

dartben: Silver moved Ohio from likely to safe Obama and took it off the competitive states list.

He moved NE-2 from safe Romney to likely Romney and added it to the competitive states list.

That must have been one helluva move in the national polls.


With numbers this strong for Obama in Ohio, if the GOP there ends up trying to claim a Romney win, the freaking FBI had better descend on Columbus en masse. Florida was a squeaker and deserved to be sent to the Supreme Court, but Romney "winning" Ohio would be about as believable at this point as Romney "winning" California and Illinois.
 
2012-11-06 09:15:36 AM
I've been avidly following Nate's column for months, and it's done wonders for my digestion this election cycle. But I have to ask: How the hell do you win 3/10 of an electoral vote?
 
2012-11-06 09:51:11 AM

mksmith: I've been avidly following Nate's column for months, and it's done wonders for my digestion this election cycle. But I have to ask: How the hell do you win 3/10 of an electoral vote?


Because that is the centre of the probabilities, not a prediction. at this moment it is actually 314.6 +-48 electoral votes for Obama.

If you look below you see his model applied to the actual EC, with 332 EV at 21% (NC Romney, Florida Obama), 303 at 16% (NC and Florida Romney) and 347 at 14% (NC and Florida Obama) as the most likely outcomes of the actual EC (all three have all other swing states Obama).
 
2012-11-06 10:22:52 AM

Hoboclown: I might be reading this wrong, but is he also predicting a 99.7% chance of Bachmann losing? And a 93.6% chance of Elizabeth Warren winning?


The latter yes, the former no. Bachmann isn't running for Senate.
 
2012-11-06 10:39:42 AM
Romney's numbers have improved in the last 12 hours. He's up to 9.1%.
 
2012-11-06 10:41:30 AM
Just voted. Even though the voter ID law injunction here in PA says they can't require ID to vote, I ticked off some poll workers by refusing to show mine when they asked. "Well, you'll have to next time." "Okay, but I don't need it now, thank you very much." My husband was proud of me :)
 
2012-11-06 11:35:58 AM

RminusQ: Hoboclown: I might be reading this wrong, but is he also predicting a 99.7% chance of Bachmann losing? And a 93.6% chance of Elizabeth Warren winning?

The latter yes, the former no. Bachmann isn't running for Senate.


Thank you.
 
2012-11-06 12:18:05 PM

pacified: and thus romney learns campaigning 101: You want to peak on election day, not 6 weeks before at some debate.


There are some excellent exercises he can practice to hold back from premature climaxing. Like thinking about statistics.
 
2012-11-07 01:59:06 AM

TV's Vinnie: Empty Matchbook: GODDAMNIT FLORIDA PICK A farkING SIDE ALREADY!!!

/we're at war!

I'm sure most of the urban locales are for Obama, but between the hicks in the swamps plus the Cuban expats who still have a chubby for Batista, it's throwing off the statisticals.


I live in Cali, I know what it's like to be held hostage by a bunch of hicks on the outskirts...
 
2012-11-07 02:01:30 AM

KarmaSpork: Empty Matchbook: GODDAMNIT FLORIDA PICK A farkING SIDE ALREADY!!!

/we're at war!

If it helps at all, I voted early and I got my hubby to vote for the first time. Both Obama.

AND I have my dad from leaning hard Republican to sitting the fence in VA. I brought up the square deal he lived through when he was young.

/goin' fishing tomorrow so I don't drive myself nuts watching the results


It does help

/it really does
 
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