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(The New York Times)   FiveThirtyEight's final numbers are in: 315.3 to 222.7 EVs for Obama and Romney giving the incumbent a 92.2% chance of victory to Romney's 7.8%   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ) divider line
    More: Followup, United States Senate, FiveThirtyEight, swing states, percentage change, Democrat majority, Democrats, program designer, mid-September  
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4063 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 11:40 PM (3 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-06 01:29:55 AM  

SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.


Sounds good to me.
 
2012-11-06 01:30:32 AM  

Solid Muldoon: gayb: Solid Muldoon: gayb: Voter fraud on both sides will likely be a wash. Obviously. Anyone who thinks one of the two major political parties in the US has a corner on the ethics market is f*cking delusional.

A wash?

On the Republican side: Governors. Secretaries of State. Heads of Election Commissions. The owners of voting machine companies.

On the Democratic side: That one lady who got caught.

You're mindblisteringly delusional.

Really? Then show me some facts to prove me wrong. Real facts. Not Fox Facts.


That one lady who got caught was a Republican.
 
2012-11-06 01:35:25 AM  

Tigger: God's Hubris: Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.

I got a dude on Facebook letting everyone know it's gonna be a 377 Romney landslide.

What do they do AFTER they are that wrong?

Is it like Fark Independents where they just pretend it never happened or do they do anything?


By this time on Wednesday, they will all claim to have voted for Gary Johnson. There will be so many who claim to have voted for him that if they actually had, he would have beaten Romney.
 
2012-11-06 01:36:59 AM  

Harry_Seldon: Dick Morris called it 5 points in Romney's favor. Does he know something we don't?


He knows which of the prostitute's toes he preferred to suck. We can only speculate.
 
2012-11-06 01:37:43 AM  
i25.photobucket.com

Severe weather warning: Hurricane Butthurt is expected to make landfall today. Residents in Colorado, Ohio, and Florida are to take extra precautions.
 
2012-11-06 01:40:49 AM  

BSABSVR: SouthParkCon: Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.

Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.

So how is his math wrong, Dean?


Math changes for the pure of heart.
This is why heathen Greeks and Atheist Scientists think pi ~= 3.1415926 while the Bible states its TRVE value of 3.
 
2012-11-06 01:43:58 AM  
Oops, wrong thread. Well, it works here as well, I suppose.
 
2012-11-06 01:46:00 AM  
Add Hart's Location, NH to the list of libby-lib conspirators against Freedomness.
 
2012-11-06 01:48:50 AM  
I don't know if anyone remembers but Obama was stronger in VA in '08 than both OH and FL. The demographics of NoVA appear to have shifted democratic. Much like the migration of Massholes to coastal NH. The polling may be close but I'm more confident in Obama winning VA than even CO.
 
2012-11-06 01:58:44 AM  

MyEnamine: I don't know if anyone remembers but Obama was stronger in VA in '08 than both OH and FL. The demographics of NoVA appear to have shifted democratic. Much like the migration of Massholes to coastal NH. The polling may be close but I'm more confident in Obama winning VA than even CO.


I've got Obama winning VA and losing CO.

/OH is too much of a mess to even call.
 
2012-11-06 01:58:57 AM  
In my view, this is the best map I can see Romney winning with. And this is what I think will happen.
 
2012-11-06 02:08:06 AM  

propasaurus: Tigger: God's Hubris: Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.

I got a dude on Facebook letting everyone know it's gonna be a 377 Romney landslide.

What do they do AFTER they are that wrong?

Is it like Fark Independents where they just pretend it never happened or do they do anything?

By this time on Wednesday, they will all claim to have voted for Gary Johnson. There will be so many who claim to have voted for him that if they actually had, he would have beaten Romney.


The local Tea Party meeting at the diner the other morning had the Teabaggers saying "They're both clowns! We're gonna vote for Romney, just so we can vote him out in four years!"

Honest-to-God.
 
2012-11-06 02:11:08 AM  

Boxcutta: Ann Coulter is now saying the polls are skewed because of the Bradley effect. I haven't heard that gem since 2008. She was actually making the case that Tea Partiers are afraid to say that they don't like Obama because they'll be branded racists.

Bless her heart.


That sounds retarded
 
2012-11-06 02:11:51 AM  
By the way, isn't Hart's Location a totally cool name? Makes me think of Arthur C. Clarke's Tales From the White Hart.
 
2012-11-06 02:13:44 AM  
Poor Nate - he never anticipated this:

http://romneymegaprayer.com/
 
2012-11-06 02:15:26 AM  

MyEnamine: In my view, this is the best map I can see Romney winning with. And this is what I think will happen.


Both of which seem pretty reasonable.
 
2012-11-06 02:18:43 AM  

Triumph: Poor Nate - he never anticipated this:
http://romneymegaprayer.com/


I told them I would pray.
My email... romneyi­sam­ormo­nyoui­di­o­ts[nospam-﹫-backwards]l­iamg­*com
 
2012-11-06 02:26:50 AM  

0Icky0: http://romneymegaprayer.com/


... Is this a joke?
 
2012-11-06 02:29:07 AM  

0Icky0: GitOffaMyLawn: We're a nation where people make contradictory statements 5 minutes apart

That's what an atheist Muslim would say, not a real American.


Nah, but it might be what a Taoist Christian would say.

/ would you believe a mystic existential Christian?
// how about I just sell you a bridge
 
2012-11-06 02:33:12 AM  

James F. Campbell: ... Is this a joke?


As opposed to what? The Romney candidacy or Christianity?
If it is, it's in good company.
 
2012-11-06 02:36:14 AM  
It's going to take a lot of voter suppression and election fraud for Republicans to close that kind of gap.
 
2012-11-06 02:47:52 AM  

Blue_Blazer: whidbey: austin_millbarge: Fark that. No farking way those neocon pigs are running us into the ground again.


In a nutshell. I really hope this is the American people's response to the Koch Brothering and the rising tide to slide all boats to the right. Shiat, I don't care what you think about Obama.
 
2012-11-06 03:03:27 AM  
This election is over. The freepers are already celebrating their victory.

http://www.natesilverwaswrong.com/
 
2012-11-06 03:03:37 AM  

SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.


Because math hates republicans.
 
2012-11-06 03:08:53 AM  

skepticultist: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Hurricane State + Christie's Praise For Obama + Mitt's Privatize FEMA Comment = Obama Wins Florida


I agree about the hurricane state. I am really surprised that Romney wasn't more worried.
 
2012-11-06 03:10:40 AM  

ilambiquated: This election is over. The freepers are already celebrating their victory.

http://www.natesilverwaswrong.com/


Sh*t. And here I was squatting on natesilverisacommie.org. I wonder if I can get my money back?
 
2012-11-06 03:14:39 AM  

ilambiquated: This election is over. The freepers are already celebrating their victory.

http://www.natesilverwaswrong.com/


Lets just see if we can't figure this out.

Whois gives us Godaddy. No help there.

IP is http://50.63.188.66/

Which pops Atlassurvivalshelters.com

Designed and hosted by: http://www.cmlmediagroup.com/

Great troll or greatest troll?
 
2012-11-06 03:14:42 AM  
A few months ago I was predicting 40 states would go for Mr. Obama. I might turn out to be wrong.

However, I am pleased the campaign FINALLY got around to acknowledging the donation I snail-mailed to them. Took ya long enough, guys!
 
2012-11-06 03:15:43 AM  
2.bp.blogspot.com
 
2012-11-06 03:22:11 AM  

whidbey: ilambiquated: This election is over. The freepers are already celebrating their victory.

http://www.natesilverwaswrong.com/

Sh*t. And here I was squatting on natesilverisacommie.org. I wonder if I can get my money back?


Maybe Romney will give you a tax break when he's president.
 
2012-11-06 03:59:48 AM  
It seems as though Republicans only became aware of Nate Silver this election cycle. I don't recall this kind of vitriole in '08.
 
2012-11-06 04:28:50 AM  

cameroncrazy1984: ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.

:(


Don't worry. The Ny Mets are my favorite squadron.
 
2012-11-06 04:32:51 AM  
My prediction 332 to 205 Obama. I was pretty close last time, I'll see this time.
 
2012-11-06 04:40:18 AM  

randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.


And just to show that anything can happen; You are (almost) correct!
Nate Silver only analyzes poll data. His predictions are only as good as the polling. He is not making any guesses here, only crunching what the polling numbers say overall.
/That being said, even if the polls are even 75% correct- Obama still wins. This is why you are not really correct.
//Funny thing about Silver's methodology is that if Romney somehow wins the day, Nate Silver still is not wrong. His predictions include a possible Romney victory. 8% chance of it! That's one in 12.5 odds. Somebody get me a 12.5 sided die and let's see how comfortable that feels considering what is on the line.
 
2012-11-06 04:52:53 AM  
a3.ec-images.myspacecdn.com
 
2012-11-06 04:57:13 AM  

Scorpitron is reduced to a thin red paste: NuttierThanEver: tjfly: Harvey Keitel said something in Pulp Fiction that applies here.

I drive really fast?

Something about the coffee, I think.



sphotos.xx.fbcdn.net

"Mmm."
 
2012-11-06 05:04:56 AM  
And now, on to getting the 51 polls that actually matter, and the final collapse of Schrödinger's candidate.
 
2012-11-06 05:08:14 AM  
www.unskewedpolls.com
 
2012-11-06 05:11:38 AM  

epoch_destroi: [www.unskewedpolls.com image 600x517]


Ha! I see what you did there.
 
2012-11-06 05:17:43 AM  

Zeppo Nightshade: NowhereMon: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Florida is on a knifes edge. It will almost certainly wind up in a recount, but at this rate it probably isn't needed for an Obama win.

Wait, I thought it was unconstitutional to do recounts in Florida


Only if the Republicans are leading before the recount, if the Democrats are winning it, any amount of recounts are allowed until the correct result can finally be achieved one way or another.
 
2012-11-06 05:24:13 AM  

xria: Zeppo Nightshade: NowhereMon: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Florida is on a knifes edge. It will almost certainly wind up in a recount, but at this rate it probably isn't needed for an Obama win.

Wait, I thought it was unconstitutional to do recounts in Florida

Only if the Republicans are leading before the recount, if the Democrats are winning it, any amount of recounts are allowed until the correct result can finally be achieved one way or another.


At least we know what happens when FAS babbies grow up and get access to the internet when they get a weekend pass from the asylum where they're considered a legitimate risk to all the livestock in the area.
 
2012-11-06 05:39:27 AM  

Cubansaltyballs: xria: Zeppo Nightshade: NowhereMon: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Florida is on a knifes edge. It will almost certainly wind up in a recount, but at this rate it probably isn't needed for an Obama win.

Wait, I thought it was unconstitutional to do recounts in Florida

Only if the Republicans are leading before the recount, if the Democrats are winning it, any amount of recounts are allowed until the correct result can finally be achieved one way or another.

At least we know what happens when FAS babbies grow up and get access to the internet when they get a weekend pass from the asylum where they're considered a legitimate risk to all the livestock in the area.


They write run-on sentences?
 
2012-11-06 05:43:57 AM  

bigbadideasinaction: That's the part that scares me the most - if "run the country aground" is the new "loyal opposition" standard, you're farked as a country.


Especially as the Republicans don't seem to be changing for the better any time soon, and the natural order in a democracy is for things to swing back to the opposition sooner or later no matter how bad they are (after a while everything they did last time they were in power gets forgotten, while the party in power is constantly blamed for doing stuff - even if 99% of it is good, people concentrate on the bad parts they don't like). Of course this is especially true in the US where the President is blamed for stuff the legislature does, even if it is the opposition party working with a veto proof majority.
 
2012-11-06 05:48:45 AM  

Modguy: Triumph: Nate Silver bases his model on polling. He doesn't factor in vote fraud. That's his Achilles heel.

Actually, he kind of does. Link

He frequently errs on the side of caution, and assumes that ALL polls are potentially off by a margin greater than the margin of error. It's why his percent chance of a Romney victory is 20 times higher than Wang's at the Princeton Election Consortium.


5% of the time polls are off by a margin greater than the margin of error, so if you want to predict election odds to much higher than 90% certainty, then being more conservative than the default 95% confidence level would seem sensible (except in weird situations that don't map to real life).
 
2012-11-06 05:59:46 AM  

Solid Muldoon: gayb: Voter fraud on both sides will likely be a wash. Obviously. Anyone who thinks one of the two major political parties in the US has a corner on the ethics market is f*cking delusional.

A wash?

On the Republican side: Governors. Secretaries of State. Heads of Election Commissions. The owners of voting machine companies.

On the Democratic side: That one lady who got caught.


What you don't get is that today millions of black people with go and vote, mostly Democratic, and almost none of them will be arrested for this gross violation of the Constitution.
 
2012-11-06 06:05:56 AM  
Think of Seamus: Vote Obama.
 
2012-11-06 06:21:40 AM  

propasaurus: Tigger: God's Hubris: Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.

I got a dude on Facebook letting everyone know it's gonna be a 377 Romney landslide.

What do they do AFTER they are that wrong?

Is it like Fark Independents where they just pretend it never happened or do they do anything?

By this time on Wednesday, they will all claim to have voted for Gary Johnson. There will be so many who claim to have voted for him that if they actually had, he would have beaten Romney.


^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^6
 
2012-11-06 06:25:56 AM  

Triumph: Poor Nate - he never anticipated this:

http://romneymegaprayer.com/


that site gives me bad ju-ju. i worry about the poor people who will be caught up in the mailing lists of the cruel SOB who set up that fake site.

not cool.
 
2012-11-06 06:28:55 AM  
I bid 300 Quatloos on the newcomer.
 
2012-11-06 06:57:07 AM  
Um, how about a spoiler alert, subby, you dick.
 
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