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(The New York Times)   FiveThirtyEight's final numbers are in: 315.3 to 222.7 EVs for Obama and Romney giving the incumbent a 92.2% chance of victory to Romney's 7.8%   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 379
    More: Followup, United States Senate, FiveThirtyEight, swing states, percentage change, Democrat majority, Democrats, program designer, mid-September  
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4060 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 11:40 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-06 12:57:52 AM

seventypercent: Finally, Silver's credibility is on the line here. If he's ridiculously wrong, he will have shot it. I don't think he's willing to do that for some conspiracy theory about suppressing Republican vote. It just doesn't pass the smell test.


Have you ever considered that they are just projecting?
 
2012-11-06 12:58:19 AM
We need a freeper follies thread. Their delusion is thick and smarmy.
 
2012-11-06 12:58:32 AM

Generation_D: epocalypse: I'll say this for Nate Silver and Sam Wang: If their going to be wrong, they are REALLY going to be wrong.

Or it'll help point the finger at the rampant cheating that would have been, presumably, successful.


Also, this. In Silver's case, if states go further than even what Silver would consider possible, that would be reason enough to assume rampant fraud.
 
2012-11-06 12:58:46 AM

Omahawg: because SOME polls are unskewed. lol

"Final Projection: Romney 275 electoral votes to Obama 263 electoral votes

The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 50.67 percent of the popular vote and 275 electoral votes to President Obama's 48.88 percent and 263 electoral votes.

QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 36.4 percent Democrats, 36.1 Republicans and 27.5 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 131,165,384 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama."

[unskewedpolls.com image 600x517]

oh, the reality! the huge manatee! either is correct but not unskewed polls


What this map actually demonstrates is how dire Romney's chances really are. Obama has the election if he wins Florida or Virginia or Ohio or Colorado (all states where he leads in the polls, per Nate). Romney needs to pull off upsets in all four states.
 
2012-11-06 12:58:48 AM

0Icky0: I'll be sharing this after the results come in...hope the guys on the right came close.
[img834.imageshack.us image 800x825]


What have we leaned today? That's Freudian.
 
2012-11-06 12:59:14 AM

Boxcutta: Ann Coulter is now saying the polls are skewed because of the Bradley effect. I haven't heard that gem since 2008. She was actually making the case that Tea Partiers are afraid to say that they don't like Obama because they'll be branded racists.

Bless her heart.


Poor Thing...
 
2012-11-06 12:59:27 AM
As a side note, I was very disappointed to find out Sam Wang's name is pronounced "Wong".

/yes, I'm 12 years old
 
2012-11-06 12:59:44 AM

jsteiner78: WI241TH: I'll wait for the polls to be unskewed and the statistical quirks to be harmonized thank you very much

Unskewed has put out a new projection,this one has Romney at 275 EV
http://www.unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_03. c fm


Your farked up link just made me realize something. I bet that potato is using a pirated copy of Cold Fusion. I think I'm gonna report his ass to Adobe for shiats and giggles.
 
2012-11-06 01:00:28 AM

nyrkah1: As a side note, I was very disappointed to find out Sam Wang's name is pronounced "Wong".

/yes, I'm 12 years old


WHAT!? God damn it.
 
2012-11-06 01:01:25 AM
polls have closed in Dixville Notch, NH.

Obama 5
Romney 5

HORSE RACE!
 
2012-11-06 01:01:29 AM

tjfly: I predict Obama will take the early lead tomorrow... Until Republicans get off work to go vote.


The problem is that a lot of polling places are in schools, which means Republicans won't know how to find them.
 
2012-11-06 01:02:20 AM

Generation_D: My granddaddy was up all night in 1960 punching ballots for Kennedy. Had him a room full of his buddies doing the same.


Thanks for keeping Nixon from being shot, you ASSHOLE.
 
2012-11-06 01:04:24 AM
Gary Johnson has a little of the Trololo guy vibe.

lh6.googleusercontent.comcache.blippitt.com
 
2012-11-06 01:04:54 AM

epocalypse: I'll say this for Nate Silver and Sam Wang: If their going to be wrong, they are REALLY going to be wrong.


There actually isn't a single credible source providing a realist prediction of Romney winning. Silver's no genius. He is just a fairly clever guy surrounded by a bunch of people making absolutely no effort.

/excluding Sam Wang that is
 
2012-11-06 01:05:29 AM

Coolfusis: flucto: All this really reminds me of 2004.

As confident as I am in numbers, I can't help but think there's going to be an awful lot of shenanigans tomorrow. I can say for the first time ever that I am actually worried about how this election will turn out.

The prospect of a Romney presidency farking terrifies me. Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term - but that it would be a sign from the voters to the GOP that you can lie, cheat, flip-flop, and just generally be dicks and we'll let you do it. Not only will we let you do it, we'll give you the keys to the highest office in the country.

What would that say about us?


That's the part that scares me the most - if "run the country aground" is the new "loyal opposition" standard, you're farked as a country.
 
2012-11-06 01:06:18 AM

Solid Muldoon: Whatevs, dude. I'll see you here tomorrow night. Bring your crying towel.


It's funny that you think you've got me pegged as a supporter of either major political party.
 
2012-11-06 01:06:29 AM

Somacandra: Generation_D: My granddaddy was up all night in 1960 punching ballots for Kennedy. Had him a room full of his buddies doing the same.

Thanks for keeping Nixon from being shot, you ASSHOLE.


I wasn't even born yet.

I tend to doubt the Mob / CIA / Cubans / Lee Harvey Oswald (see how I put him last out of everyone?) had any reason to be taking shots at Tricky Dick.
 
2012-11-06 01:07:12 AM

Mike Chewbacca: What have we leaned today? That's Freudian.


Thanks. That was one reason to post it here first :-)
 
2012-11-06 01:07:38 AM

ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.


I remeber I reading somewhere that the Romney surge was in a large part a result of polling firms switching from registered to likely voters in their polling methodology, which made Mitt's surge in the polls look a lot bigger than it really was. Did anyone else see anything to that effect? The Googles are doing nothing.
 
2012-11-06 01:09:10 AM

ManateeGag: tjfly: I predict Obama will take the early lead tomorrow... Until Republicans get off work to go vote.

herp derp, only republican's have jobs, derp derp derp.


Both comments are idiotic. Votes don't get reported until the polls close.
 
2012-11-06 01:09:27 AM

Coolfusis: flucto: All this really reminds me of 2004.

As confident as I am in numbers, I can't help but think there's going to be an awful lot of shenanigans tomorrow. I can say for the first time ever that I am actually worried about how this election will turn out.

The prospect of a Romney presidency farking terrifies me. Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term - but that it would be a sign from the voters to the GOP that you can lie, cheat, flip-flop, and just generally be dicks and we'll let you do it. Not only will we let you do it, we'll give you the keys to the highest office in the country.

What would that say about us?


That's been the fear all along.
 
2012-11-06 01:09:31 AM

GWSuperfan: Granny_Panties: Today's NATE SILVER is the greatest threat the Statisticals has ever faced.

Bah. I've defeated worse.


Statisticals is people!!!
 
2012-11-06 01:09:38 AM

INeedAName: tjfly: I predict Obama will take the early lead tomorrow... Until Republicans get off work to go vote.

The problem is that a lot of polling places are in schools, which means Republicans won't know how to find them.


And a lot are in churches, meaning Democrats won't be able to find them.
 
2012-11-06 01:10:05 AM

TV's Vinnie: Empty Matchbook: GODDAMNIT FLORIDA PICK A farkING SIDE ALREADY!!!

/we're at war!

I'm sure most of the urban locales are for Obama, but between the hicks in the swamps plus the Cuban expats who still have a chubby for Batista, it's throwing off the statisticals.


Don't forget the crackers in north Florida. Remember, Florida is at least two different states, with the dividing line somewhere around a line drawn through Daytona Beach to Orlando.
 
2012-11-06 01:10:23 AM

Generation_D: I wasn't even born yet.


It was intended as sarcasm. Never fear. Unlike Barack Obama, you possess no magical time machine.
 
2012-11-06 01:10:41 AM
Fixed Spelling
img824.imageshack.us
 
2012-11-06 01:11:53 AM

Modguy: Generation_D: epocalypse: I'll say this for Nate Silver and Sam Wang: If their going to be wrong, they are REALLY going to be wrong.

Or it'll help point the finger at the rampant cheating that would have been, presumably, successful.

Also, this. In Silver's case, if states go further than even what Silver would consider possible, that would be reason enough to assume rampant fraud.


Like 2004, Ohio?

Since no one will ever repeat 2000 in the 'fight to the death' department, .... anyway, the other part of that is the Cult of Polls.
 
2012-11-06 01:11:59 AM
and thus romney learns campaigning 101: You want to peak on election day, not 6 weeks before at some debate.
 
2012-11-06 01:12:05 AM

Omahawg: because SOME polls are unskewed. lol

"Final Projection: Romney 275 electoral votes to Obama 263 electoral votes

The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 50.67 percent of the popular vote and 275 electoral votes to President Obama's 48.88 percent and 263 electoral votes.

QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 36.4 percent Democrats, 36.1 Republicans and 27.5 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 131,165,384 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama."

[unskewedpolls.com image 600x517]

oh, the reality! the huge manatee! either is correct but not unskewed polls


I actually buy that scenario, but with Colorado and/or Virginia blue.
 
2012-11-06 01:12:09 AM

seventypercent: This idea that I'm going to manipulate the poll numbers to make the situation for "my candidate" seem better than it actually is makes no sense at all.


Though that leads someone to wonder what the fark Rasmussen is doing pulling the same old shiat election after election
 
2012-11-06 01:12:16 AM

epocalypse: I'll say this for Nate Silver and Sam Wang: If their going to be wrong, they are REALLY going to be wrong.


epocalypse: I'll say this for Nate Silver and Sam Wang: If their going to be wrong, Ohio was frauded by Husted's last minute "tabulator experimental patch"


they are REALLY going to be wrong.


Fixed that for you
 
2012-11-06 01:12:20 AM

Coolfusis: flucto: All this really reminds me of 2004.

As confident as I am in numbers, I can't help but think there's going to be an awful lot of shenanigans tomorrow. I can say for the first time ever that I am actually worried about how this election will turn out.

The prospect of a Romney presidency farking terrifies me. Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term - but that it would be a sign from the voters to the GOP that you can lie, cheat, flip-flop, and just generally be dicks and we'll let you do it. Not only will we let you do it, we'll give you the keys to the highest office in the country.

What would that say about us?


Well that's easy.

We're a nation that lives on American Idol, Honey Boo-Boo, and Jersey Shore.

We're a nation where people make contradictory statements 5 minutes apart, and the closest anyone comes to blinking is a comedian's comments on Comedy Central.

We're a nation where education, critical thinking, an interest in the facts, and solving problems are all vilified.

In short, we're a country of strung-out "reality show" junkie morons.

/ but we buy stuff
// whatever anyone tells us to buy
/// I have a CSB about slash no. 2, but that would be off-topic
 
2012-11-06 01:12:56 AM
Maybe Mittens can be Presnidet of Amercia.

3.bp.blogspot.com
 
2012-11-06 01:13:08 AM

Lenny_da_Hog: INeedAName: tjfly: I predict Obama will take the early lead tomorrow... Until Republicans get off work to go vote.

The problem is that a lot of polling places are in schools, which means Republicans won't know how to find them.

And a lot are in churches, meaning Democrats won't be able to find them.


And others in the NE will be portable trucks with national guard troops around them--and you know libs are allergic to guns and military.
 
2012-11-06 01:13:52 AM

GitOffaMyLawn: We're a nation where people make contradictory statements 5 minutes apart


That's what an atheist Muslim would say, not a real American.
 
2012-11-06 01:14:29 AM

The Bestest: polls have closed in Dixville Notch, NH.

Obama 5
Romney 5

HORSE RACE!


It was 10 votes and I realized I was a complete idiot for thinking that it mattered but I was relieved for half of them voting for Obama even thought they were predominately Republican in their Governor/Congress votes.
 
2012-11-06 01:14:59 AM

tjfly: I predict Obama will take the early lead tomorrow... Until Republicans get off work to go vote.


Yes, you have Facebook. We get it. But do we have to see this TWO dozen times?
 
2012-11-06 01:15:11 AM

Somacandra: And others in the NE will be portable trucks with national guard troops around them--and you know libs are allergic to guns and military.


All the liberals are *in* the military. You don't find Young Republicans there.
 
2012-11-06 01:16:18 AM

tjfly: I predict Obama will take the early lead tomorrow... Until Republicans get off work to go vote.


At which point Obama will have a late lead.
 
2012-11-06 01:16:20 AM

mrshowrules: HORSE RACE!


Or, in Romney's case, HORSE DANCE!!!1!
 
2012-11-06 01:18:35 AM

nmemkha: Would it be awesome if:

[lh6.googleusercontent.com image 400x618]

I don't know much about him, but just the spectacle the absolute media and political frenzy would be awesome. Sadly, its laughably improbable in this universe.


I'm not sure which is dumber: you or the tagline on that poster
 
2012-11-06 01:18:58 AM

fqhollis: Somacandra: And others in the NE will be portable trucks with national guard troops around them--and you know libs are allergic to guns and military.

All the liberals are *in* the military. You don't find Young Republicans there.


Impossible. I heard this from both Sean Hannity and Glenn Beck.
 
2012-11-06 01:21:29 AM

INeedAName: tjfly: I predict Obama will take the early lead tomorrow... Until Republicans get off work to go vote.

The problem is that a lot of polling places are in schools, which means Republicans won't know how to find them.


Oh snap.
 
2012-11-06 01:21:47 AM

The Bestest: polls have closed in Dixville Notch, NH.

Obama 5
Romney 5

HORSE RACE!


"In Hart's Location, the other New Hampshire town that enjoys first-vote status, Obama won with 23 votes, Romney received 9 and Libertarian Gary Johnson received 1 vote."
 
2012-11-06 01:23:11 AM
Dick Morris called it 5 points in Romney's favor. Does he know something we don't?
 
2012-11-06 01:23:35 AM

Generation_D: Coolfusis: flucto: All this really reminds me of 2004.

As confident as I am in numbers, I can't help but think there's going to be an awful lot of shenanigans tomorrow. I can say for the first time ever that I am actually worried about how this election will turn out.

The prospect of a Romney presidency farking terrifies me. Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first

// My granddaddy was up all night in 1960 punching ballots for Kennedy. Had him a room full of his buddies doing the same.


Ummmm, NO! If you believe the happy horseshiat about Illinois being stolen by the dead voting in Chicago in 1960, you will also believe the 917 Romney lies that Rachel Maddow documented. Pure myth and sour grapes. No your granddaddy did not do that.
 
2012-11-06 01:23:54 AM

Hamilstan: The Bestest: polls have closed in Dixville Notch, NH.

Obama 5
Romney 5

HORSE RACE!

"In Hart's Location, the other New Hampshire town that enjoys first-vote status, Obama won with 23 votes, Romney received 9 and Libertarian Gary Johnson received 1 vote."


AS GOES HART'S LOCATION!
 
2012-11-06 01:25:36 AM

Harry_Seldon: Dick Morris called it 5 points toes in Romney's favor. Does he know something we don't?


FTFY
 
2012-11-06 01:26:01 AM

Harry_Seldon: Dick Morris called it 5 points in Romney's favor. Does he know something we don't?


Yeah, what whore toe tastes like.
 
2012-11-06 01:27:32 AM

Harry_Seldon: Dick Morris called it 5 points in Romney's favor. Does he know something we don't?


Well, he knows that hookers charge extra for toe play.
 
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